Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192045
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
345 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...One Last Soaking Rain Episode will End from S to N Tonight into
Tomorrow with Cooler than Normal Temps Continuing thru Wed...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Aloft: An upr low is over CO anchored by one final potent vort max
over the SE corner of the state. This low and vort max will slowly
lift into Neb by dawn and cross the state tomorrow. It should be
located near FSD by 00Z/Sun.

Surface: Low pres was lifting NE from OK into KS and it will cont
NE. Should be over SE Neb by 12Z/Sat while weakening tonight...
on its way into IA tomorrow.

Rest of this afternoon: Periods of rain. There could be a few
rumbles of thunder S-SE of Hastings.

Tonight: an extensive shield of rain should evolve as a large
comma cloud/def zone evolves. Another widespread .50 to 1" of rain
is expected. Most of the rain will fall prior to midnight.

There is an outside change some wet snowflakes could mix over Wrn
Dawson County toward dawn. Believe this will probably end up a
cold rain...but there is a R/S mix in the fcst late tonight.

Sat: Plenty of clds with the upr trof remaining overhead...but
the clouds should begin breaking up in the afternoon...espcly W
and S of the Tri-Cities.

There will still be some patchy light rain or drzl...espcly N and
W of the Tri-Cities but it will gradually end from S-N. Another
day of unseasonably chilly temps. The Tri-Cities will average
around 49F. Brisk NW winds will make it feel like upr 30s-low 40s
over S-cntrl Neb.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...Conditions will be Favorable for Frost 1AM-8AM Sunday...

Aloft: The longwave trof will remain over the Cntrl USA even as
the low departs into Canada...but it will gradually inch to the
E by Tue. There still remains substantial spread Wed-Fri with the
12Z/EC looking like an outlier Thu. The model consensus suggests
N-NW flow Wed-Thu with a deamplifying Wrn ridge arriving here
Fri.

Surface: Chilly high pres will settle over the rgn Sat night into
Sun AM. This high will depart to the E Sun. Even though the low
currently affecting the rgn will be in Canada...it will still
impact the rgn as another cold front plunges S thru the CWA Mon on
its backside. Another chilly high will drop in Tue and as this
high conts S...return/downslope flow off the Rockies will result
in a warming trend.

Precip: Svrl episodes of light rain or sct shwrs will occur Sun
night thru Tue. Mon afternoon-eve there will be enough instability
for thunder. Would not be surprised to see G45-50 mph with these
storms as fcst soundings have an inverted-V look...and very low
frzg lvls near cloud base suggests pea size hail will be a good
possibility.

Temps: Returning to near normal Sun-Wed...except a one day
interruption of much cooler than normal (though not as bad as
today or Sat). Above normal warmth should return for Thu-Fri.

Frost: A chilly air mass is in place. And with clearing skies and
light winds Sat night into Sun morning...conds will be favorable
for frost...especially N and W of the Tri-Cities.

Low temps were lowered a little bit below the fcst starting-up
using bias corrected guidance...which has been verifying best for
day 2 low temps the last 2 weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Significant Wx: IFR conds will prevail with periods of -RA. WSHFT
to NW tomorrow.

This Afternoon: CIGs initially variable between IFR and MVFR
becoming IFR in periods of -RA...espcly after 21Z. NE winds
around 15 kts. A couple gusts up to 25 kts possible. Confidence:
High

Tonight: IFR CIGs/VSBYs in periods of -RA before 06Z then OVC with
-DZ possible. NE winds around 15 kts.

Sat thru 18Z: IFR CIGs to start gradually lifting to MVFR 16Z-18Z.
Winds shift to NW and become gusty to near 25 kts. Confidence:
High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley



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