Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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748
FXUS63 KGID 201726
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Primary concerns for this time frame include high temperature
today behind cold front, along with slight chance for precipitation
tonight. Starting out with the big picture, satellite water vapor
imagery along with 00Z upper air analysis showing upper lows off
the east and west coast of the U.S., with ridging over the central
part of the country. This ridging is being dampened somewhat in
the northern/central Plains due to low pressure sliding through
central Canada. At the surface at 06Z, low pressure extended from
the NE/MO/IA border southwest to the OK panhandle, while high
pressure to the north was centered over north central NDak. Cooler
air streaming down from the north with mid 50s in central Neb
compared to lower 70s in the warm sector in eastern KS. The 30
degree air remains well north of us at this time across the
Dakotas/Minnesota.

Won`t make any major temperature changes for this afternoon as
airmass remains mild over the CWA and highs should range from the
mid 60s north to the mid 70s south. Will be some scattered high
clouds moving through today and this evening.

Several model solutions continue to show a mid level shortwave
trough, currently seen over northern California, moving through the
weak ridge and across the Rockies during the day today. The wave
holds its identity according to the models as it slides across
northern Neb and southern SDak overnight. This will bring at least
a slight chance for light rain overnight with the northern CWA
standing the better chance. Things don`t look quite as promising
as they did on the previous run and I plan to lower POPs a little
everywhere. Our four northern counties are in the SPC general
thunder area but instability looks to be very limited, thus will
not mention thunder in the grids. Also checked forecast soundings
in the north for the possibility of snow overnight, but both the
GFS and NAM seem to be signaling rain if we get anything at
all.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 421 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Changes appear to be in store for the local area over the coming
days as a trough of low pressure moves onshore across the west coast
and the ridge of high pressure aloft begins to weaken. As a
result...expect some relatively small chances for precip to start
the extended periods as a weak disturbance makes its way across the
region...with increasing chances for more widespread and beneficial
precipitation totals beginning late Wednesday night and continuing
through the end of the week. This change will come as the
aforementioned west coast low swings through the desert southwest
and emerges into the plains late Thursday or Friday. While there are
some track/timing issues between the larger scale models...odds are
looking fairly favorable for a closed upper low tracking across the
plains on Friday providing ample forcing for widespread shower
activity across the local area.

Ahead of this upper level low...expect increasing moisture in a
generally southerly flow ahead of the next low...allowing
instability to build across the local area by late Wednesday or
Thursday. With this building instability...it is not out of the
question for some thunderstorm development across the region ahead
of the main system...beginning primarily late Wednesday night...and
continuing into the Missouri river valley by Friday afternoon. While
instability will be fairly limited with this system...and shear
values on the low side...severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at
this time and the main focus will be the possibility for some fairly
widespread beneficial precipitation across the region. Thereafter...
there will be a brief break in precipitation chances over the middle
portion of the upcoming weekend before the subsequent low pressure
system brings additional chances for some showery precipitation to
the region late Sunday into MOnday.

Temperatures through the period will be fairly seasonably...
fluctuating 5 to 10 degrees either side of seasonal norms...with
near record heat or cold not appearing likely over the next week.
Normals for early spring generally indicate low temperatures
remaining near to just below freezing during the morning
hours...with high temperatures generally climbing into the middle
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Biggest issues will be perhaps some gustiness to the wind this
afternoon, and also a small chance of some showers in the area
late tonight, but most of this activity should remain north of
both terminals as a mid-level wave passes by.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein



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