Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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286
FXUS63 KGID 180501
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1101 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Main issues in the short term continue to revolve around
temperatures, wind, and associated fire danger. See the fire
weather section for specifics on the fire threat.

Winds today have been just slightly lower than advertised, which
has led to a fairly nice day across the area. Expect temperatures
to fall off pretty quickly tonight as as winds go light and
variable this evening.

Late tonight into Sunday morning, winds will once again turn
southerly in response to a potent 850mb jet on the order of 60 to
70kts. This jet will shift east of the area during the morning,
but we could still pick up some strong gusts as mixing increases
late tomorrow morning into the early afternoon. Gusts of 45 MPH
are possible...especially east of Highway 281.

These strong south-southwest winds should also lead to above-
normal temperatures which will help melt most of the remaining
snow. High temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s
to near 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A cold front will move through the area Sunday night, bringing
big changes to the weather forecast. Expect winds to shift
northerly and temperatures begin to plummet behind this front. At
the same time, low-level moisture will remain trapped below 800mb,
which will bring a good chance for drizzle and freezing drizzle
to the area. Confidence on precipitation is increasing, but
impacts will depend on the surface temperatures. Ultimately, my
gut feeling is that the Monday morning commute will be a slick
one...especially from the tri-cities eastward. I expect drizzle
to gradually end from west to east during the morning Monday.

Temperatures won`t climb much, if any, on Monday due to the
strong cold-air advection. This will set the stage for another
round of wintry precipitation Monday night. Although most of the
snow will remain northwest of the area, our area may still see a
wintry mix of freezing drizzle, sleet, and light snow on the
southern edge of the band. Precipitation is expected to come to an
end Tuesday morning.

Winds will stay northerly through the day on Tuesday and even
into Wednesday. This will lead to bitterly cold temperatures each
night. We will likely see wind chills dip into the -10 to
-20 degree range both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

The good news is that we are still expecting a bit of a warmup
Thursday into Friday before the next system impacts the area
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Winds will have the biggest impact for the terminals for much of
the TAF period. An intense low level jet will average 50kts for
the majority of the night, leading to several hours of wind shear.
Surface winds will also see some gusts through the night, with
some strong gusts mixing to the surface on Sunday with gusts near
30kts forecast. Look for those southerly winds to remain strong
through the afternoon, then gradually subside as a surface trough
and cold front arrive during the evening. Low clouds will filter
south behind the front towards the end of the TAF period and winds
will shift to the northeast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Winds were just a touch lighter than expected today, but humidity
has followed pretty close to the forecast...dipping to around 20
percent this afternoon across northern Kansas. Expect conditions
to improve rapidly as winds fall of this evening.

Winds will shift southerly overnight, bringing us another day of
near-critical fire danger across Kansas.

For Sunday, neighboring forecast offices have issued Fire Weather
Watches and Red Flag Warnings to our south, but locally our
relative humidity values are actually expected to be a few percent
higher than they were today. That said, south- southwesterly wind
will be stronger than today, possibly gusting to around 45 MPH
during the late morning and early afternoon. This will make
burning very hazardous to near impossible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Fay
FIRE WEATHER...Mangels



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