Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 181040
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS AS LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA.

FOR TODAY...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS A TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL AIRMASS
FROM SUNDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMPARABLE TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOONS READINGS...AND ONLY TWEAKED VALUES UP A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE 850MB TEMPS WILL HAVE
MODIFIED A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE...AFTER A FEW SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING BURN OFF...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. THAT
SAID...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...ADVECTING ADDITIONAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BUILD...WITH A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME PENETRATING THE MID LEVEL CAP.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A COUPLE MODELS ARE ADVECTING SOME CONVECTION
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
VAST DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL DATA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AS THE WINDS TURN
TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN IN
MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN UPPER WAVE IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT THERE TO BE BETTER CHANCES
FURTHER NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS. ON
WEDNESDAY THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THERE IS AN UPPER
WAVE THAT APPROACHES AND THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW LINGERS
ACROSS THE AREA...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST...THEN
REDEVELOPING FURTHER WEST AGAIN. THERE IS GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND A FEW WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVES THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE
MODELS HAVE THE MAIN FEATURES SIMILAR...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THESE WAVES IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN MODELS. HAVE LEFT CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO RAIN ALL
OF THE TIME...BUT THERE ARE MAINLY SMALL CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND THE  SURFACE LOW IS
FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA AND EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...AND ONLY PASSING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI



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