Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
658 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Focus is on the potential for light rain or sprinkles tonight and
possibly into early Thursday. An upper level disturbance translating
from the northern and central Rockies onto the Central Plains has
generated rain shower activity across western Nebraska during the morning.
Movement of the rain showers is to the northeast while the entire
area of precipitation will gradually work east as the wave moves
through this evening and tonight. The precipitation will be very
light, with just trace amounts to around a hundredth or two
expected. The shortwave trough axis shifts east early Thursday
however there is still lingering lift in the left front quadrant
of the upper jet nosing across the plains and have kept in the
mention for sprinkles for the morning.

Cooler air filters south behind the cold frontal boundary tonight
and is reinforced by the surface high pressure system settling in.
Cloud cover and the cooler airmass Thursday will keep temps a few
degrees below normal with readings averaging in the upper 50s to
low 60s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Heights rise behind the departing wave Thursday night with upper
ridging settling across the plains over the weekend and into the
first part of next week. This will bring a period of dry and mild
weather with above normal temperatures.

Flow aloft transitions southwest on Tuesday ahead of a upper trough
in the Pacific and a lead shortwave trough moving out of the
Rockies. Chances for precipitation return late Tuesday into Tuesday
night as this lead system emerges onto the plains. Models suggest
good moisture in place with this next wave and have included some
potential for thunder. Models diverge more so around the middle of
next week with the handling of the upper low in the Pacific which
affects the pattern across the plains and details will be resolved
as things get closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Small chances of showers will be around overnight into early
Thursday morning with some upper level supports associated with
the jet. Not a lot of instability and not expecting much if
anything occurs. Chances are low enough to not even include in the
forecast. Ceilings should remain mainly VFR, with an occasional
MVFR not completely out of the question.




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