Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 170542
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1242 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Sunday and
  Monday. Afterwards, above normal temperatures are expected
  through most of the work week.

- Fire weather will be the main concern into early next week due
  to the combination of winds gusting to 25-30 MPH and relative
  humidity values as low as 20-25%.

- Slight chances for precipitation to graze the area Wednesday
  night into Thursday, but slightly better chances (20-40%)
  Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

This evening and tonight... Aloft, the forecast area is under
northwesterly flow near a broad low pressure trough extending
from Canada into the Great Lakes region. There is also a not
quite cutoff low over the Southwest and an upper high over the
Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, Canada. Overnight, the
main change will be the entire pattern shifting slightly south
and winds aloft will become more northerly over the area. At the
surface, deep mixing is occurring behind a cold front leading
to wind gusts of 25-35 MPH. As this brings dry air to the
region, near-critical fire weather conditions will continue into
the early evening hours until winds begin to diminish...may
even see a location along or north of Interstate 80 briefly
touch critical fire weather conditions but feel it will not be
for long enough to issue a headline at this time. Still, any
fires burning this afternoon and evening could get out of
control quickly.

Sunday...
Conditions will be much the same as the pattern will not have
changed much besides a more pronounced upper ridge over the
Northwestern United States. Dry and breezy northerly flow will
continue and again wind gusts during the day will be in the
25-35 mph range. Along with the gusty winds, RH values in the
20-25% range will once again produce near-critical fire weather
conditions across the area during the afternoon and early
evening. High temperatures will range from the mid-40s
to the low 50s.

Sunday night and Monday...
Surface high pressure will quickly drop down from Canada into
the central Plains Sunday night through Monday morning. This will
bring about the coldest morning lows of the 7 day period, with
lows Monday morning in the teens across most of the area. High
temperatures Monday should still reach the 50s though.

Overnight Monday night and Tuesday...
A cold front will move across the Plains Monday night/Tuesday
morning. While the area will remain dry, winds will again
increase, first from the southwest as the front approaches then
becoming northwesterly as it passes. Once again, gusts of 25-30
mph will be possible along and behind the front. Highs Tuesday
will be in the 60s.

Wednesday through Friday night...
Wednesday will look much the same as Tuesday except with lighter
winds. Highs will be in the 60s across most of the area. The
area of low pressure over the southwest United States will
finally get pulled along with the flow across the southern
Plains as a trough. There is a slight chance that a little
moisture may make its way far enough north for north central
Kansas to see something Wednesday night/Thursday morning but
this is a very low chance...the vast majority of models keep the
area entirely dry. There will be another couple of fronts that
work their way down from Canada Friday and into the weekend.
Feel a little more confident in something next weekend as
opposed to during the work week. Currently have a 15-40% chance
of precipitation, but there is plenty of time for the forecast
to resolve. There is still considerable model uncertainty
regarding temperatures from Thursday and beyond; therefore IF
we get moisture, precipitation type (i.e. rain, snow, or a
rain/snow mix) is equally uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR through the period. Could have a few CU 3-4K ft during the
daytime hours Sunday, but otherwise mostly clear. Another round
of breezy-windy conditions will redevelop mid to late AM and
continue through the afternoon when speeds will peak 15-20kt and
gusts around 30kt. Winds will decr to 6-10kt around/just after
sunset Sun eve. Confidence: High.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies


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