Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 032151
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

...Snow Ends This Eve with a Mild Interlude Sun-Mon Before the
First Surge of Blustery and Bitter Arctic Cold Arrives Tue-Thu
with Potential Remaining for a Little Snow...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Aloft: SW flow was over the region with a pair of shortwave
trofs. The initial one was most obvious on the tropopause and you
can see it in WV imagery. The second trof extended from SD-NE-CO.
As the initial trof weakens and moves thru this evening...this
will shutoff the snow. The second one will result in clearing as
large-scale subsidence moves in. Heights will rise in WNW flow
tomorrow.

Surface: High pres was over the Midwest with a ridge axis
extending SW across Neb/KS. A Clipper was over Srn Sask with a
trof extending S to CO. The high will head to the E coast thru
tomorrow. The trof will move E and cross the fcst area tonight.
Weak high pres will form over CO by daybreak Sun and slide into
the Srn Plains. Its ridge axis will move thru here with return
flow develop in the afternoon.

The snow has been amazingly persistent over the SE 1/2 of the
fcst area today (E and S of a line from Holdrege-GI-Columbus). To
our knowledge this has been primarily an all-snow event. While
some roads briefly became snow-covered shortly after sunrise...as
the roads began absorbing insolation...the snow melted or became
slushy. There have been some light coatings on grassy areas and on
the shoulders aside roads where snow has been most persistent.

Highest amts we know of is 1.5" at Burr Oak and 6E Phillipsburg in
KS.

Now: snow will gradually taper off from W-E.

Tonight: Any leftover snow over the Ern fringe of the fcst area
will end probably by 9 pm...but definitely by midnight. With all
the low stratus...there is potential it could build down into some
light fog ...especially W of hwy 183 where these areas are close
to the clearing line.

It`s 45F at LBF right now with LXN at 37F.

The biggest uncertainty tonight is how far E clearing occurs.
Initial erosion of the stratus will reveal BKN mid-high clouds
after midnight. But how much does fog keep skies cloudy?

Raised low temps 2-3F above the prvs fcst at most locations.

Sun: Unsure how much cloudiness and fog is around at daybreak.
Overall...clouds will be on the decrease and should rapidly where
the day starts with some clouds. Initially was going to use best-
verifying guidance for highs which would have dropped highs from
the prvs fcst. However...after watching Wrn Neb warm into the upr
40s today...kept prvs fcst as is and even nudged highs up a couple
degs. A very nice day.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Overview...Coldest air of the season by far is on its way south
and will invade the region beginning Tuesday. Highs by Wednesday
and Thursday will likely only be in the teens to around 20 across
Nebraska zones, to lower 20s across Kansas. Low temperatures by
Wednesday night and Thursday night will only be in the single
digits. In addition, more light snow will work into the forecast
area late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the higher amounts
likely across Kansas. There is still a good deal of uncertainty
regarding mid-week snowfall amounts with forecast models showing
anywhere from no snow up to a couple of inches.

Monday...This will be the last decent day out ahead of that
significant cold front. The day will start with southerly winds
and that cold front could begin to work into northwestern zones by
late afternoon. If the cold front comes in any earlier, then highs
might be too warm across our northwestern zones. There is no
precipitation expected with the cold frontal passage.

Tuesday into Wednesday...There will be two rounds of cold with
one round of cold air advection on Tuesday and the second more
significant blast of cold air on Wednesday. There will be a fast
moving vort max rounding the southern periphery of the upper
trough entering into the central plains late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This is an upper level dynamics snow event with very
cold air at the surface. If it was a closed low or a slower moving
system we could see more snow, but that does not appear to be the
case. This will be a fast mover. Looking at 12z ECMWF ensemble
members the average model snowfall was around 2.5 to 3 inches in
our Kansas zones and around 2 inches over Nebraska zones. However,
there was still a good deal of model variability with ensemble
members ranging from 0 to 6 inches. The highest likelihood for
accumulating snow does appear to be Kansas at this time. Highs on
Wednesday will range from the teens across south central Nebraska
to the lower 20s over north central Kansas.

Thursday through Saturday...The bitter cold will linger into
Thursday with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s. We then
expect temperatures to slowly moderate back through the 20s on
Friday and perhaps back above freezing by Saturday. There is an
outside chance of another weak storm system in the area by
Saturday, but confidence this far out is low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Significant Wx: IFR snow ends by 21Z but IFR CIGs will remain.

This afternoon: IFR -SN will end in the next 2-3 hrs. However...
low stratus CIGs are moving in. EAR is down to 600 ft and GRI has
FEW 700 ft. After snow ends...IFR CIGs will remain and MVFR VSBYs
are expected in light fog. S winds 5-10 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: IFR stratus with some fog will cont...but model consensus
suggests passage of sfc trof will result in improvement to VFR...
revealing BKN CIGs around 12K ft. S winds under 10 kts will shift
to SW and then W by daybreak. Confidence: Medium

Sun thru 18Z: VFR clearing. W winds 6-12 kts. Confidence: High

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Kelley



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