Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 271013
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
413 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE OF A FEW FLURRIES BRIEFLY
AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA BETWEEN NOW AND
ROUGHLY 9AM THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PRECIP-FREE
THANKSGIVING DAY/NIGHT...WITH A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEING
THE FOREMOST CHALLENGE AS EASILY A 15-20 DEGREE GRADIENT IN HIGHS
IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
CWA. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPS
VERSUS YESTERDAY (ESPECIALLY WEST)...THE "BIG" WARM UP CLEARLY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS COVERED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW.

STARTING OFF WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 0930Z/330AM...VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT OVER THE CWA PER AIRPORT OBS AND 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE...BUT IN GENERAL AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAS TAKEN HOLD FROM WEST-TO-EAST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...WITH A SOMEWHAT LOWER STRATUS DECK BASED AROUND 4K FT EVEN
BRUSHING THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT RADAR PICTURE IS QUIET OVER THE AREA...THERE WERE
HINTS OF A BRIEF/NARROW BAND OF FLURRIES OVER WESTERN COUNTIES A
FEW HOURS AGO. AS FOR THE SURFACE MAP SITUATION...THE LOCAL AREA
RESIDES JUST ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD NORTH-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS
WITH A CENTRAL MAXIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 1039 MILLIBARS OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/MN BORDER AREA. AS A RESULT...THE LOCAL AREA IS
OBSERVING A MIX OF LIGHT/VARIABLE TO LIGHT/EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES
MAINLY UNDER 7 MPH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS RATHER STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...FEATURING A ROUGHLY 130KT
UPPER JET STREAK CENTERED FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MO...WHICH
IS THE INTERFACE BETWEEN A SLOWLY-DEPARTING LARGER SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMP-WISE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER HAS
STABILIZED SOME AREAS OR EVEN RESULTED IN SLIGHT RISES FROM
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...ACTUAL LOWS WILL REGISTER ON THE SEASONABLY
CHILLY SIDE WITH MOST OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 13-22 (WARMEST SOUTHWEST).

LOOKING FORWARD NOW AND STARTING WITH THESE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO
THROUGH MID-MORNING...HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...WITH
THIS SLIGHT CHANCE ONLY RUNNING THROUGH 15Z/9AM AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN 1/3 OF THE CWA. AS DISCUSSED IN THIS
PRODUCT A FEW HOURS AGO...MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM12/RAP13 AGREE
THAT A FAIRLY NARROW RIBBON OF MID LEVEL SATURATION/MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON THE 290K SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST BEFORE EXITING TO THE
EAST DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS A TYPICAL
OCCURRENCE JUST ON THE BACK-SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK...AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE CAN OFTEN
RESULT IN "SURPRISE" NARROW/BRIEF BANDS OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.
FORTUNATELY IN THIS CASE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOW-MID LEVELS SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN BRIEF
FLURRIES...IF OF COURSE ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP AT ALL. NO
MATTER...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE
FIRST FEW HOURS POST-SUNRISE.

BY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNSET...ANY CHANCE OF FLURRIES THAT
MIGHT HAVE EXISTED EARLIER SHOULD ABATE...AS CLOUDS EXHIBIT A
GENERAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST CLEARING TREND...BUT WOULD HESITATE
TO CALL THIS AFTERNOON OUTRIGHT-SUNNY IN ANY AREAS JUST YET GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL MID-HIGH CLOUDS TO
SPILL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK/MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE. ON THE
LARGER- SCALE PICTURE THOUGH...THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A WARM-UP
START TO SHOW THEIR HAND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH CONTINUES ITS DEPARTURE. DOWN AT THE 850
MILLIBAR LEVEL...A 5-10C JUMP IN TEMPS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
BETWEEN SUNRISE AND SUNSET AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...MIXING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD A BIT BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL...THUS MUTING THE WARMING
POTENTIAL A BIT...ALONG WITH THE EFFECTS OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES. EVEN SO...MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD
REALIZE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN A 5-10 DEGREE BOOST IN DAYTIME HIGHS
VERSUS YESTERDAY...WITH THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE IN THE EAST
AND HIGHER SIDE IN THE WEST. THE NET RESULT IS EASILY A 15-20
DEGREE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH IS ALWAYS TRICKY DEPENDING
ON JUST HOW FAR EAST WARMER AIR CAN PUSH AND/OR COLDER AIR CAN
HOLD FIRM. ENDED UP ONLY MAKING MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
IN MOST AREAS...LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WARMER END OF SEVERAL
MODEL/GUIDANCE SETS AND AIMING HIGHS FROM THE LOW 30S FAR
NORTHEAST...LOW-MID 40S CENTRAL AND LOW-MID 50S FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE MODEST WARMING...DON/T EXPECT IT TO
FEEL ALL THAT MILD EVEN IN WESTERN ZONES AS A MODESTLY-TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH
WILL PROMOTE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY 10-16 MPH WINDS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY WITH A FEW HOURS OF GUSTS UP TO SLIGHTLY OVER 20 MPH.

FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN PRECIP-FREE WEATHER AS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD UP
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES MILDER THAN THIS MORNING IN MOST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVELS...FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL...WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY
LIMITED PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AS ANY THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
BE FOCUSED WELL-EAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. AT THE 850MB LEVEL
WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HUMMING ALONG AS BREEZES TURN
WESTERLY...WITH MOST OF THE CWA PROGGED TO JUMP INTO THE +10-15C
RANGE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. OF COURSE...VERY LITTLE OF THIS WARMING
WILL BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE DUE TO VERY SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING...BUT EVEN SO A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES GENERALLY 5-15 MPH TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY BREEZES
WILL OCCUR AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON BEHIND THE PASSING WEAK
FRONT...HELPING TO KEEP THINGS A BIT MILDER. THAT BEING
SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME FAIRLY QUICK TEMP-DROPS IN THE EVENING...STILL OPTED
TO NUDGE DOWN PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS AT LEAST 2-3 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS...AIMING MOST OF THE CWA SOMEWHERE INTO THE 21-27 RANGE. ON
ONE LAST NOTE...MODELS SUCH AS THE 03Z SREF ACTUALLY SUGGEST SOME
LIMITED PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL COULD MATERIALIZE LATE TONIGHT...AND
FORECAST SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SUGGEST THAT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER...THE GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE BREEZES IS GENERALLY QUITE
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA AND THUS WILL
OMIT EVEN A PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO HELP STEER AN ARCTIC FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF VERY NICE DAYS
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A PAIR OF SEASONABLY COLD DAYS
ACROSS THE REGION BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN...USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH FORECAST TO
CROSS THE ROCKIES MID WEEK.

WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO A NICE
WARM UP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BEHIND THE WARM FRONT FORECAST
TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A VERY NICE DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE 60S ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THEN...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY...EXPECT A NICE START TO THE
WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FRIDAYS UNSEASONABLY WARM VALUES. IF REALIZED...THESE WILL BE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES REACHED IN THE TRI CITIES IN ALMOST 3 WEEKS.

THIS NICE LATE FALL WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED...HOWEVER...AS AN
ARCTIC FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
NEARLY A 20C DROP OFF IN 850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT...SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHARPLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LIKELY NOT CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. WHILE
THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE STEERED SOUTHWARD BY A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IN A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...DUE TO THE VERY COLD AND
DENSE NATURE OF THIS AIRMASS...THINK THAT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE CROSSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REACHING THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WHILE SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNRIGHT BLUSTERY WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNING DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE A WHOLE LOT BETTER AS
WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT
CLIMB MUCH...IF ANY...ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
RESULT IN A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY.

AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED BEHIND THE SURFACE HIGH ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...AND A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION...EXPECT A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS...AT THE SAME TIME A PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS NEXT TROUGH IN EC/GFS GUIDANCE...OPTED TO KEEP THE
EXTENDED FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING AS NEITHER SOLUTION LOOKS
PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION LOCALLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY WITH ONLY
VARYING DEGREES OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS
CENTERED NEAR SUNRISE COULD FEATURE CEILING DIPPING DOWN AS LOW AS
AROUND 5K FEET. ALONG THOSE LINES...SUPPOSE EVEN A FEW ROGUE
FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT SOME POINT MAINLY DURING THE 09Z-
15Z TIME FRAME THIS MORNING...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WORTH A FORMAL
MENTION. JUMPING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE PERIOD MAINLY AFTER 03Z
THURSDAY EVENING...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) COULD AT LEAST
APPROACH MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS OF 30+KT OF OVERALL SHEAR
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1500 FT...BUT GIVEN
THIS IS WELL BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL DEFER TO
LATER FORECASTS TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS WORTHY OF INCLUSION. AS
FOR SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD...LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS DURING
THE DAY (GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 20KT)...BEFORE DECREASING A BIT
DURING THE EVENING BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10KT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.