Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 061045
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
445 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Satellite and observations have shown mid level clouds across the
area most of the night. The western edge is starting to move into
the forecast area early this morning. The skies are clearing fairly
rapidly from the west. In addition, the winds are starting to
diminish a bit in the west. So far, the temperatures have not fallen
much in the west, but the clearing and lighter winds have only been
in the last hour or so. Will have to see if the temperatures start
to fall faster toward day break.

A surface high pressure centered in Wyoming and Montana this morning
will continue to build into the forecast area today. The main
surface high will remain to the northwest, but there will be a ridge
of high pressure across the area this afternoon. Skies should be
mostly clear after the mid level clouds move out. With the ridge of
high pressure across the area winds will be mostly from the
northwest, but should decrease as the day goes on. Temperatures
could be a bit tricky today. Cold air continues to push into the
area, but with sunshine, there should be some recovery in the
temperatures.

Tonight, the high pressure gets pushed to the east as an upper level
wave moves into the area from the west. Clouds will increase during
the evening ahead of the wave. Precipitation should move into the
west/southwest during the overnight hours. Temperatures are easily
cold enough for snow. There is a little question in the timing of
the snow. The NAM is slower than the GFS and the WRF is kind of in
between, leaning toward the GFS a bit. There should be some snow in
the southwest, but it should hold off until after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The jet stream is expected to remain fairly active through the
extended periods with west to northwesterly flow continuing through
at least the middle of next week. This will allow multiple quick
passing disturbances to impact the plains from time to time along
with helping to keep a cool airmass in place across the
region...with a bitterly cold start to the extended periods expected
to only moderate to near normal conditions over the weekend and into
early next week.

While the focus for the past several days has been the first
disturbance tracking out of the Pacific northwest...and rightfully
so...models continue to focus the brunt of this system across the
high plains and extending into Kansas. While some snowfall will
likely be realized locally...overall qpf amounts are expected to be
on the light side and winds not quite as strong as previously
forecast. So despite the cold airmass that will result in snow
ratios approaching 20 to 1...most locations south of interstate 80
will likely receive only 1 to 2 inches of total snowfall
accumulation...with even lesser amounts north of the interstate.

Once this disturbance exits the region late in the day
Wednesday...cold temperatures will become the focus as overnight
temperatures will likely drop below zero in the coldest spots. While
winds will not be overly strong...even with winds speeds of 10 to 15
mph...wind chill values will plummet well below zero...with
dangerously cold values possible during the late night/early morning
hours both Thursday and Friday. The coldest morning actually appears
to be Friday as the ridge axis tracks across the local area...but
while the temperatures will be coldest Friday morning...winds will
be very light...helping to mitigate some the potentially dangerous
wind chills during the morning hours.

While another disturbance is forecast to emerge from the Rockies
late Saturday through Sunday...expect little more than a reinforcing
shot of cold air...with any precipitation chances limited primarily
to north central Kansas...with little expected accumulations as this
disturbance will be moisture starved. Thereafter...the flow turns
more westerly with another small shot of snow possible late Sunday
night into Monday morning...but models are not in good agreement
with this so actually contemplated pulling these small chances but
ultimately decided to keep them given the quick passing westerly
flow which will be streaming across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Breezy northwest winds will continue through much of the night and
into the daytime on Tuesday. There will be a gradual decrease in
winds. The mid clouds across the area will move out and skies will
be mostly clear much of the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...JCB



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