Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 121744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Seasonably cool...northwesterly flow...will continue across the
region through the short term periods. Expect the weak disturbance
to our southwest to track mainly south of the local area as it
dissipates over the next few hours. For the daytime hours...quite
a bit of uncertainty in model data so a weak boundary forecast to
be across the local through the afternoon hours. While model data
is all over the place with initiation of convection along this
boundary by mid afternoon...with mainly clear skies in place to
start the day...expect some primarily diurnally driven convection
to initiate along the boundary for areas primarily along and west
of highway 281...which should then dissipate by early evening.
With this added cloud cover...expect afternoon temperatures to be
a degree or two below Fridays readings...and overall...very
pleasant for mid-August.

By early evening...expect a fairly pronounced upper level low in
the aforementioned upper level flow to rapidly progress
southeastward...spreading showers and thunderstorms across a
widespread portion of the local area during the late evening
through overnight hours. While there will be a small chance for a
few severe storms...expect this chance to be primarily limited to
areas along and west of highway 183...where the instability will
be greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

There will be variety in the pattern during the period. There will
generally be northwest flow, but there is a small break in that with
a ridge that moves over that gradually changes to northwest flow

Most of the models move most of the thunderstorms out of the
forecast area during the day on Sunday, although there will be some
mainly in the north during the day Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon
and night there is another wave that moves into the area. There is
MUCAPE over 3000 j/kg so there could be a few strong to severe

By Monday the ridge is drifting through the area. The temperatures
will be warming up a few degrees. There could be a few thunderstorms
around, but the models do not agree very well on the amount or
location of any thunderstorms. The ridge moves to the east on
Tuesday and an upper level wave moves into the area from the west.
There could be a few thunderstorms around on Tuesday, but the better
chance will be Tuesday night as the upper wave gets closer.
Thunderstorms will move out of the area Wednesday morning and the
afternoon should be mostly dry. A weak wave moves into the area
Wednesday evening and brings a chance for thunderstorms back to the
area. Thursday through Friday is back to northwest flow and a few
upper level waves that bring on and off chances for thunderstorms.


Models have some differences for the Monday time-frame. The one
thing that the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all have in common at this
time is that it looks like there should be a good chance for dry
conditions. The models do have some QPF for locations around the
central plains. As for clouds, there is still a lot of things that
could change over the several days until the eclipse, but there
could be some clouds around the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may be possible this
afternoon, but the better chance for showers and thunderstorms is
late this evening into the overnight hours as a complex of storms
is expected to move into the area from the northwest. Southerly
winds are between 10-15kts and skies are partly cloudy and will
become mostly cloudy throughout the remainder of the day. Some
lower clouds that could creep into MVFR cigs are possible towards
morning. Have left ceilings above the 3000ft level for now and
allow later shifts to monitor.




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