Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 301135
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
635 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT SKIES ARE FAIRLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPED IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR INDICATES A FEW
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THESE
CLOUDS. THESE SHOULD BE GONE AROUND DAY BREAK.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GRADUALLY WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNSHINE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
SOUTH WILL BE CAPPED WITH TEMPERATURES TOO WARM. THE MUCAPE
INCREASES TO AROUND 3500 J/KG DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND LATE
TONIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS RESULTING IN A
SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE RESULTANT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MULTIPLE SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE.

EXPECT THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO BE EXITING THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A WEAKENING
CAP...MODEST 0-6KT SHEAR VALUES...AND 2000 PLUS JOULES OF CAPE TO
WORK WITH...EXPECT ANY FORCING FROM THE ASSOCIATED WAVE TO HELP
SPARK AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SOME OF
WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. AS A
RESULT...OPTED TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE MORNING HWO AS THE
LOCAL AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODEL DATA...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
SEE SOME RAINFALL ON THURSDAY...AND FOR THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO HELP HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH THE INHERENT DIFFICULTY IN TIMING EACH
DISTURBANCE...OPTED TO KEEP BLENDED FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY...WHICH
CURRENTLY BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...AT THE
MOMENT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE STILL APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WHEN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASE A LITTLE. AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



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