Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
533 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS OF THE MONTANA/CANADA
BORDER. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACCOMPANYING TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTH FROM THE MAIN LOW IS MOVING INTO WY/CO...WITH
SATELLITE/REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING AN AREA OF RESULTANT
PRECIPITATION STRETCHED ROUGHLY FROM THE FAR SWRN NEB PANHANDLE UP
INTO CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED INTO
THE AREA BY THIS DISTURBANCE AS STARTED MOVING INTO NWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA...AS OF 3 AM WINDS AT LXN/ODX HAD SWITCHED TO THE NW
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS CONTINUED TO BE A BIT LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE.

THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...AND SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY ROUGHLY
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...DIDNT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED POPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THAT EVEN THOUGH LIFT IS IN THE AREA THANKS TO THIS
DISTURBANCE...THE CHANCES FOR THE CWA TO SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION JUST ISNT THAT GREAT. AS MODELS WERE HINTING AT LAST
NIGHT...THE 4KM/HRRR/RAP ALL HAVE JOINED IN ON THE SAME GENERAL
STORY...THAT OUTSIDE OF THE NW AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BEING
POTENTIALLY CLIPPED BY THE SRN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION...DONT EXPECT MUCH. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY.
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THOSE N/NWRN ARES SEEING SOME PRECIP BUT
WITH CONFIDENCE NOT ON THE HIGH SIDE...KEPT THOSE POPS LOW. WITH
THE BETTER LIFTING SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT REMAINS A DRY ONE.

STILL LOOKING AT A BREEZY DAY TODAY...AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON HELPING BRING STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. AFTER SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...THAT COOLER AIR MOVING
IN IS EXPECTED TO DROP HIGHS CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH NEAR 60 IN THE N/NW TO NEAR 70 IN THE SE FORECAST FOR
TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

IT APPEARS DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED AS IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THE WAVE TRAIN
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN
MN...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH WEST
OF VANCOUVER ADVANCING EAST. BY 12Z THURSDAY THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC MODELS TAKE A
WEAK WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVE IT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS SHOULD HELP ADVANCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR CWA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS AS MID LEVEL FORCING DOES NOT LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE WHEN CHECKING OMEGA VALUES ON A FEW TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS FROM THE GFS. IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE COOLER AIR TO
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO STILL EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY IN THE PERIOD. EVEN AT THAT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY
BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EVERYTHING SHIFTING EAST. BY SAT
MORNING THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH
TROUGHS OVER BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND EC ARE VERY SIMILAR CONSIDERING THAT IS 132 HOURS
OUT...WITH THE GFS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER. AT ANY RATE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM A BIT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
OVER THE AREA. AGAIN BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THINGS EAST SO
BY SUNDAY MORNING THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLATED TO BE CENTERED
OVER THE ROCKIES. IT SHOULD BE JUST FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT
OUR CWA REMAINS DRY DURING THE DAYTIME BUT WILL AFFECT US SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THAT TIME. THIS
IS JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
HOW IT PLAYS OUT AS THE WEEK ROLLS ALONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD CONTINUES TO LIE WITH
THE WINDS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION...USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. FOR A FEW HOURS
EARLY THIS MORNING...VWP AS WELL AS A FEW MODELS SHOWING A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS OFF THE SURFACE WORKING INTO THE
AREA...AND THERE WAS ENOUGH OF A CONCERN REGARDING LLWS TO INSERT
A MENTION...DUE MORE TO A SPEED DIFFERENCE VS DIRECTION. BY MID
MORNING...SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START RAMPING UP...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACHING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE AND GUST
NEAR/OVER 30 MPH. THOSE SPEEDS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO WORK INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ANY CLOUD COVER
REMAINING IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ADP



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