Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 201643
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1143 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Surface observations show some random fog out there. A few locations
have had visibility at a mile or less, while others are still at 10
miles. Satellite across the area has mostly clear skies.

There is an upper level ridge to the east of the forecast area this
morning. The pressure gradient across the area today will turn winds
to the south and increase. The winds at 850mb are only around 30 kts
so there could be breezy conditions. The south winds will help to
warm temperatures and bring an increase in low level moisture to the
area.

For tonight, there is an upper level wave that approaches the area.
In addition, a surface low develops to the northwest of the forecast
area. This system continues to stay to the west of the area tonight,
but there will be an increase in clouds later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Overview: It will be warm with highs a good 10 to 15 degrees above
normal through at least Friday, which for this time of year
translates into highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Saturday will
be a day of transition with a strong front working through at some
point and highs probably somewhere in the 80s depending on frontal
timing. We will then cool back into the 70s behind the cold front
for Sunday and Monday. Although there are several periods with
precipitation chances, the best chance will likely be Saturday into
Saturday night.

Wednesday...A vort max tracking northeast out of the baja region of
Mexico will slide into our forecast area by late afternoon. Forecast
models are currently mixed on whether or not there will be enough
forcing with this system for thunderstorms. However, should
thunderstorms develop there appears to be more than enough
instability and at least marginal shear for some storms to possibly
become severe. At this point a best bet would be that there will
likely be a few scattered thunderstorms in the area late Wednesday
afternoon and evening, but not everyone will get wet. It will be hot
and muggy for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s and dewpoints in the 60s.

Thursday through Friday...A large upper trough will dig across the
western CONUS and at least to me this seems like the deepest most
substantial trough across the west we have seen since probably May.
Southerly flow out ahead of this digging system will result in a
continuation of our very above normal highs in the upper 80s to
around 90. Although there area some low rain chances, am not very
optimistic in seeing rain as the large upper system will still be
well to our west, but the blend of models does give us some low POPs.

Saturday...Most forecast models are rather consistently brining a
strong cool front through at some point on Saturday or Saturday
night. This will be our best chance of thunderstorms although it is
too early to know if they will be severe or not. There will be
significant forcing and good shear...but instability may be lacking.
It might just be a pretty healthy line of general thunderstorms that
could bring some appreciable rains to the area if everything works
out.

Sunday into Monday...Forecast models have been struggling with what
to do with the big western Trough with many models creating a cut
off low over the desert southwest as the main northern portion of
the wave tracks on by. Overall it seems more likely that we will be
dry and have lowered rain chances below the model blend. However,
uncertainty abounds with if and where a cut off low may end up
during this time frame. Temperatures will be cooler in the 70s
behind the cool front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the taf period. High level
clouds will be on the increase heading into tonight and Wednesday,
and a period of low level windshear is forecast with a strengthening
low level jet overnight.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Fay



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