Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 110227

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
827 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Issued at 820 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Temperatures have been staying a few degrees warmer than expected
so far this evening. This is largely due to winds staying in the
8-13 MPH range at most places. Some mid level clouds are moving
into the area out of South Dakota as well. For these reasons, I
went ahead and bumped up low temperatures for tonight by 2-4
degrees. Hourly temperatures have been adjusted to hopefully match
this trend a bit better.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The primary forecast concern will center around the extreme fire
danger this afternoon across much of the area and then again
tomorrow primarily across our northern Kansas counties. See the
fire weather section below for more information.

A strong cold front will move through Monday morning resulting in
falling temperatures by afternoon with strong and very unpleasant
north northwest winds. Temperatures will actually remain rather
mild tonight for this time of year just ahead of the cold front
with lows generally around 30 degrees. This will be around 10
degrees above our normal lows.

High temperatures on Monday could reach the mid to upper 40s
across south central Nebraska with mixing along and just behind
the front late Monday morning or around noon and then temperatures
will begin to fall during the afternoon as winds increase,
possibly gusting to 45 mph. There will be strong mixing behind the
cold front. Kansas counties should see highs in the low 50s
before temperatures also begin to fall there by early afternoon.
This will be another dry frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

The current pattern of an upper level ridge over the western
United States and an upper level trough across the eastern United
States will persist throughout the forecast period. The upper
ridge will become less amplified with time gradually flattening
out some. We will continue to see weak moisture starved shortwaves
tracking through within the northwesterly flow regime bringing
occasional short lived cooler shots of air while we remain dry and
overall abnormally warm.

Monday night...Will be one of the cooler nights behind Monday`s
cold front, but lows will still be above normal in the lower to
middle 20s.

Tuesday...We start to see more of a downslope westerly wind
component that will begin to warm up western zones, while eastern
zones remain cool, but everyone will still be well above normal
with 40s east and 50s west.

Wednesday and Thursday...Another cool front will push through
Wednesday, but it will be a glancing shot of cooler air with a
reinforcing shot of colder air on Thursday. With mixing on
Wednesday we might actually be warmer than Tuesday in the 50s for
most areas, but we do expect a cool down back into the 40s for
Thursday with that secondary cold front.

Friday through Sunday...We remain warm and dry with highs
generally in the 50s with prevailing downslope warming winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Tonight: Low-level wind shear will be the main concern as an
midlevel wave and associated surface cold front moves through the
area tonight. Otherwise, just expect northwest winds at the
surface and a few mid to high clouds.

Tomorrow: Behind the cold front, winds will increase
substantially by mid-morning on Monday. Northwest winds gusting
to around 35kts are expected through mid afternoon before
gradually tapering off in the late afternoon and evening. Cloud
cover will also increase Monday afternoon, likely becoming broken
to overcast. Ceilings are currently expected to stay VFR, as the
best potential for MVFR ceilings appears to be north and east of
the terminals.


Issued at 512 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Monday...RH values will be much higher tomorrow across most areas
due to the cooler temperatures behind the morning cold front.
However, our far southwestern Kansas counties could see enough
time ahead of the cold front and enough mixing to still get RH
values down close to that 20 percent criteria. The wind will be
stronger across the entire area on Monday behind the cold front
with strong mixing. Have collaborated with surrounding weather
service offices to issue a fire weather watch for Phillips,
Rooks, and Osborne counties where the RH will also be low in
addition to the strong winds. Confidence is not as high as I would
like with this watch especially if temperatures end up being
colder, which is certainly a possibility.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for KSZ005-017-018.



LONG TERM...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Wesely/Mangels is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.