Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250908
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIP EVENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVE FOLLOWED BY MORE WIND...

ALOFT: THE FLOW WAS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE CNTRL USA AND RIDGES JUST OFF BOTH COASTS. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A
SHORTWAVE TROF OVER ALBERTA. THIS TROF WILL DIVE SE INTO THE
DAKOTAS TODAY AND INTO NEB/KS TONIGHT...DEEPENING OVER TIME WITH A
GOOD SHOT OF QG FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KT UPR-LVL JET.

SURFACE: A CLIPPER LOW WAS ORGANIZING OVER ALBERTA. THIS LOW WILL
RACE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER WRN IA BY DAYBREAK
WED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THRU TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING: WAA WAS UNDERWAY. SATELLITE SHOWS ARE LARGE
EXPANSE OF LOW-MID CLOUDS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER
WARM FRONT. THE SRN END OF THESE CLOUDS WAS GRAZING THE FCST AREA.
COULD EVEN SEE A COUPLE FLURRIES N OF NEB HWY 92 BEFORE SUNRISE.

TODAY: WAA WILL CONT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER. MORNING
SUN WILL RAPIDLY BE OBSCURED BY INCREASING AND DESCENDING MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. ONE WEAKNESS IN THIS FCST IS THAT CLOUDS MAY COME IN THICK
FASTER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED. I.E. WE MAY NOT BE PESSIMISTIC
ENOUGH. THAT IS A DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING HI-RES MODELING INDICATE A SWATH OF
FGEN-ENHANCED LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SPRINKLES WILL DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM 3PM-12AM. SPRINKLES ARE MOST LIKELY ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. INCLUDED SPRINKLES S AND W OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS OF .01" QPF AS SOME SREF MEMBERS DO HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE BEST MODEL CLUSTERING.

USED THE 05Z BIAS CORRECTED RAP FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER GRASP ON WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
N. DESPITE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN DWPTS/RH TODAY WITH 10F OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MAV/MET MOS. USED CONSENSUS OF SHORT-TERM HI-
RES MODELS WHICH WERE NOT THE LOWEST BUT DID FAVOR THE DRIER MAV
MOS. THIS WILL WORK BEST OUTSIDE WHERE IT RAINS...BUT MOISTENING
FROM RAINFALL WILL INCREASE DWPTS LOCALLY.

TONIGHT: SWATH OF RAIN/SPRINKLES EXITS TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT.
STRONG CAA KICKS IN AFTER PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A CORE OF
50 KT WINDS AT 850 MB. OUTPUT FROM THE WIND GUST TOOL SEEMED TOO
LOW SO USED GUSTS FROM A BLEND OF THE 18Z/00Z RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
/CONSRAW/. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS N OF HWY 6 BEGINNING 3 AM.
WITH 40 KTS AS LOW AS 1500 FT...CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED HIGHER
GUSTS.

P-TYPE: KEPT IT PRIMARILY RAIN/SPRINKLES EXCEPT ON THE EXTREME
NE/E FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA 07Z-08Z ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIP...IF IT`S STILL FALLING BY THEN. NAM P-TYPE ALGORITHM KEEPS
IT ALL RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LEFTOVER DAYTIME BL
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW. EVEN WETBULB TEMPS FAVOR RAIN
WITH +2 UP TO 1K FT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME TEMP PROFILES COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW.

MODEL 2M TEMPS SUGGEST A FAIRLY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS 27-38F AND
30-31F IN THE TRI-CITIES. EVEN THE MOS 3-HOURLY TEMPS SUGGEST
THIS.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WE ARE CALLING FOR A DRY FORECAST FROM START TO FINISH THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND
SEVERAL BIG TEMPERATURE SWINGS. EXPECT TWO COLD AIR OUTBREAKS...
ONE ON WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY...AND A SECOND SHOT
OF COLD AIR TO FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE WARM WITH HIGHS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THEREFORE
...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM VERY LITTLE IF AT ALL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO WITH A LITTLE 850/700
MB MOISTURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING IN. HOWEVER...FORECAST MODELS
CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 0.00 QPF AND THE CHANCE OF
FLURRIES IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE A PRETTY GOOD TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP MORE OVER NEBRASKA.
THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE LOWER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

THANKSGIVING...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN INCREASINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SLOWLY START TO WARM BACK UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BRINGING WARMER AIR ALOFT. AT THE SFC...THE WIND WILL TURN TO
SOUTHERLY AND WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE WARMING
WILL BE GRADUAL ON THANKSGIVING WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RISE
EXPECTED OVER WEDNESDAY HIGHS...BUT THE WARM UP WILL INCREASE AS
WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. AS FOR THANKSGIVING...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S NORTHEASTERN ZONES...TO AROUND 40 IN THE TRI-CITIES...TO
THE MID AND UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE OVERALL UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE REAL COLD AIR BOXED UP IN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND IN
CANADA. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH
RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING A VERY NICE DAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BOTH ALOFT
AND AT THE SFC. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SHOULD HAVE
A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE WARMING COMPONENT TO IT BEING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST. ALL IN ALL EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE TRI-CITIES TO THE LOWER 60S OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL FORECAST MODELS HAVE LARGELY SLOWED DOWN THE COLD FRONT
AND BRING IT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING OR
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FULL DIURNAL HEATING UNDER A
CONTINUED WARM AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD HELP ALL AREAS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE 00Z ECMWF EVEN INDICATES A FEW SPOTS
COULD HIT 70 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING HINGES ON THE TIMING
OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT RIGHT NOW SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE A GREAT
DAY TO GET OUT AND ENJOY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD SNAP HITS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY DECENT FORECAST AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF THAT A PRETTY POTENT COLD AIR
MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IT
SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE SO WE ARE NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT
SNOW...BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COLD. OUR FORECAST HIGHS BASED OFF
THE SUPERBLEND OF MODELS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN ORD TO THE
30S ELSEWHERE AND THIS MAY BE OPTIMISTICALLY TOO WARM IF YOU
BELIEVE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS A
HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TOO HOW LONG THE COLD AIR WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE 00Z GFS IS MUCH QUICKER TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR OUT ON MONDAY THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

OVERNIGHT: VFR WITH SCT PATCHES OF 7K ALTOCU DRIFTING THRU. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE W. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS MOVE IN AND GRADUALLY DESCEND DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 9K FT. WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE EVE: VFR CIGS DESCEND TO AROUND 4K FT WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH A BIT OF -RA POSSIBLE. COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WSHFT EXPECTED AROUND 03Z. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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