Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 282135
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
335 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. RADAR TRENDS SHOW
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF INTO ERN KS/SERN
NEB...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERING ACROSS OUR ERN
COUNTIES. REPORTS RECEIVED FROM PORTIONS OF NC KS HAD TOTALS
TOPPING OUT AROUND 1.5 INCHES. AT THE SFC...THE CWA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER THE NERN CONUS AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING THOSE SRLY WINDS IN PLACE.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GOING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...WITH 3 PM
TEMPS RUNNING THE WHOLE RANGE OF 20S.

WITH THE FIRST WAVE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE CWA SITTING IN A BIT OF A LULL...DECIDED TO KEEP THE
EVENING HOURS DRY. DO HAVE POPS RETURNING POST 06Z
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE SNOW AS ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140ISH KT UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES IN. EVEN THIS CLOSE TO THE POTENTIAL
PRECIP...MODELS DO NO AGREE WITH WHAT THE CWA WILL SEE. 4KM AND
SREF SHOW CHANCES AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE OTHERS
LIKE THE RAP AND ECMWF SHOW BASICALLY NOTHING. INHERITED FORECAST
INCLUDED SOME CHANCE POPS...AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THOSE. SHOULD SNOW DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE CWA...ONLY EXPECTING AN
ADDITION FEW TENTHS OF A INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

HAVE LINGERING LOW POPS DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW...WITH
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WHILE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH TIME TOMORROW SKY COVER SHOULD DIMINISH.
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TOMORROW...EXPECTING A SWITCH IN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
ACCOMPANYING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DID BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES...AS MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPS ALOFT WORKING IN
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THOSE NWRLY WINDS /ALTHOUGH THEY ARE ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH/. HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID
30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE QUITE WELL WITH SYNOPTIC FEATURES. A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE PLAINS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. WHILE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW...THERE COULD BE GENERALLY LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES ARE KICKED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. NOT
UNTIL THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO AND EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL BE SHUT OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THE SPECIFICS
AND TIMING ARE FAR FROM AGREED UPON BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS.
GENERALLY NEED TO GO WITH LOW CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST TO ESSENTIALLY COVER OUR BASES.
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW REGARDING TIMING OF ANY LULLS ALONG WITH
PRECIPITATION AS BOUTS OF SNOW MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. THE
NAM INDICATES ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR MONDAY...GIVING US A SHOT AT
SOME RAIN/SNOW. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
LIFT TOWARD LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE NAM INDICATES A LOSS OF
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO THERE COULD BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
ENSUES. STILL...THERE IS SO MUCH INCONSISTENCY AND LACK OF
AGREEMENT...I CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SKEPTICAL OF THIS...SO I WILL
PROBABLY CONTINUE TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND
STICK WITH SNOW.

ANOTHER THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS WIND SPEED IN COMBINATION WITH
SNOW FALLING FOR TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT
30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH UP TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL...WE COULD EASILY HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY.

WIND CHILLS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING DID NOT DIP QUITE LOW ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE HWO.

ONCE WE GET THE TROUGH EAST OF US...WE WILL BE MORE CONFIDENTLY
DRY AND EVENTUALLY WARM UP TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND...MAYBE EVEN NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE AS A RIDGE IN THE WEST NUDGES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF LIES WITH THE BEGINNING AND END FEW
HOURS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW TO SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT MIDDAY...WITH BOTH TERMINALS BARELY OUTSIDE
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT EITHER
GETTING CLIPPED BY SOME -SN SO DECIDED TO INSERT A TEMPO GROUP
FOR A FEW HOURS. ALSO MENTIONED MVFR CONDITIONS...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG THOSE DO/DO NOT STICK AROUND THIS AFTERNOON
IS LOW. HAVE ANOTHER MENTION OF MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA.
PRIOR TO THE FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN SRLY AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS FILLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP


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