Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 182118
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
318 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

...After Much-Needed Rain it`s Back to Bone Dry with Temps
Averaging Much Warmer than Normal the 7 Days with Great Holiday
Travel Wx...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Aloft: The moderate-amplitude trof that moved thru this morning
was E of the CWA and the flow has become NW. A broad ridge was
over the Wrn USA and advancing E. This ridge will deamplify/
flatten as it conts E tonight and arrives here tomorrow. This will
maintain NW flow.

Surface: High pres was emerging from Wrn KS down into the TX
Panhandle. This high will sink completely into TX tonight and then
begin heading into the lwr MS Vly tomorrow. Winds will back to SW
tonight as the low-lvl ridge moves thru with WAA/downslope
warming developing.

Rest of this afternoon: M/sunny...cool and windy with a few
stratocu. These SC will dissipate by sunset.

Highest wind gust was 37 kts at HSI.

Tonight: Clear and cold...but low temps will be near normal.

Sun: Sunny thru most of the day and warmer as temps return to
above normal. Highs in the mid-upr 50s...and the SW fringe of the
CWA reaching 60. It`s possible we may be a couple degs too low.
Cirrostratus will begin to increase from the W...especially after
21Z as a shortwave trof will be approaching.

See fire wx sxn below.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Aloft: Fairly low amplitude flow will amplify this week as a Wrn
USA ridge/Ern trof evolves. The last 2 runs of EC/GEM/GFS/UKMET
are tightly clustered thru Thxgvg Day providing above normal
confidence. Initially this will cool down temps Tue-Wed...but
upstream progression over the E Pac will nudge the Wrn ridge to
the E but with deamplification Fri.

Surface: A strong cold front will cross the CWA Mon night
followed by chilly high pres. A warm front will form Tue night and
advance across the CWA Wed as a Clipper low dives into the Nrn
Plns. Its trailing cold front is currently fcst to remain over or
just E of the CWA Thxgvg Day before moving E as a warm front.

Temps: Tue will be the coolest day of the wk with temps returning
to normal Wed. Then turning significantly warmer than normal with
widespread 60s Thxgvg Day and Fri. Some guidance is indicating
temps could reach the low-mid 70s W and S of the Tri-Cities Fri.

Back to the bone dry pattern.

Travel Wx: Dry with temps mid 40s to mid 50s Wed and in the 60s
Thxgvg Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Significant Wx: None.

This afternoon: VFR with a few stratocu lifting from 3-4K ft. NW
winds around 20 kts with gusts to near 30. PKWND of 37 kts
possible. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR SKC with stratocu dissipating by 00Z. NW winds
diminish to 5-8 kts gradually becoming W and then WSW. Confidence:
High

Sun thru 18Z: VFR SKC. Winds become SW 6-12 kts. Confidence: High

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Conds will be near critical S of KS Hwy 24 tomorrow...but it will
be very marginal. RH`s will be 21-25% with high confidence.
However...winds are shaky. Contemplated pulling the mention of
near critical conds altogether. There could be a couple gusts
close to 25 mph though. So it was kept.

After further evaluation...near critical conds also appear
possible Mon afternoon over S-cntrl Neb...W of Hwy 183. HWO has
been updated to include this potential.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley



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