Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 210543
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Have been working on TAFs...but will get an update out shortly for
temps. ODX is near our fcst low temp and LXN has already dropped
below the fcst lows.

We`ll also attempt to convert the Fire Wx Watch to a Red Flag
Warning...but it won`t be as expansive as the watch. Initial look
suggests even accounting for deep mixing it will be difficult to
verify a RFW for most of the fcst area.

Current thinking is only a few counties along or N of I-80...but
this is pending coordination with neighbors.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The cool front has moved through the region throughout the day.
Skies have cleared behind the front and northwest winds have been
breezy 20 to 25 mph with gusts to over 30 mph.

Tonight winds will decrease and temperatures will cool down with
lows in the low to mid 30s. There is a chance for record warm
minimums today, but it`ll be close, depends on how quickly it
cools tonight.

There are a couple of concerns for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1. Fire
weather and 2. Record high temperatures.

1. Have kept the fire weather watch for tomorrow. Relative
humidities are not the question. Expect RH values to drop into the
teens during the afternoon, but south to southwest wind speeds are
a bigger question. The best chances for wind to exceed 20 mph is
along and north of I-80 and along and east of Hwy 81. Will allow
the next shift to take a look and determine the need for the
upgrade to a warning. Have the same challenges/concerns for
Wednesday with relative humidities in the teens, but a question
mark with how strong winds will go.
2. Record high temperatures will be in jeopardy both days.
Maximum insolation and mixing will help temps soar on Tuesday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Confidence is fairly high that the
record temperatures will fall at both Grand Island and Hastings
Tuesday. See the details below in the climate section. Wednesday
will also be warm, but am currently forecasting slightly below
records at both locations. However, the forecast is still within a
few degrees of current records, so think there is a potential to
break them.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The main forecast concern in the extended is the system that will
impact the are Thursday into Friday. The main trough over the
western CONUS will approach for Thursday with a low developing
along the OK/TX/KS/NM corner before moving eastward along the
OK/KS border. The system is expected to begin with liquid before
transitioning to snow during the evening hours Thursday and
persisting through the day Friday. It is still early to determine snow
fall accumulations, but the better chance for higher accumulations
does appear to be across western, central and northern Nebraska.
Stay tuned to this system as the forecast evolves as it nears.

This system will usher in more seasonable temperatures with highs
in the 30s to 40s through the remainder of the extended. There is
a second chance for snowfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Significant Wx: Cross winds on N-S RWYs 17Z-23Z.

Rest of the night: VFR SKC. Lgt mainly SW winds under 10 kts.
Confidence: High

Tue: VFR. Just a few small patches of 25K ft cirrostratus. SW
winds increase and gust up to 25 kts. Confidence: High

Tue eve: VFR with 25K ft cirrostratus become SCT or even BKN
toward 06Z. Lgt SW winds under 10 kts. Confidence: High

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Fire weather concerns continue through the next couple of days
ahead of the next big system. Temperatures will be well above
normal, with records possible. Dry air and mixing drier air down
will allow Relative humidities to be in the teens both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. This is a large concern, but the question
comes in with how strong the winds will be for both days. Reaching
20 mph could be a struggle at least across portions of the area.
On Tuesday winds will have the best chance to meet the 20 mph
criteria along and north of I-80 and east of Hwy 81. Please stay
tuned to the forecast for tomorrow as the fire weather watch may
be upgraded to a warning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Potential Record High`s...

        Tue 2/21     Wed 2/22
GRI    75 in 1995   76 in 1982
HSI    73 in 1995   75 in 1982

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Kelley
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright
CLIMATE...Kelley


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