Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 241046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
546 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Quiet conditions reign across the region early this morning, with
upper air data showing northwesterly flow in place, as a ridge
axis extends through the Rockies. Outside of some upper levels
streaming in across the north, skies across the CWA are clear. At
the surface, winds are light, thanks to high pressure building in
from the north.

Overall, not a lot of changes were needed to the forecast for the
short term period. Models remain in good agreement showing this
upper level ridge axis gradually sliding east with time, keeping
things dry across the CWA. The area of surface high pressure
currently centered over the border of SD/ND/MN looks to keep
shifting east- southeasterly today, turning winds more east-then
southeasterly, already by midday. Speeds during the day look to
top out in the 10-15 MPH range. A slightly cooler airmass in place
is expected to keep afternoon high temperatures in the 60s across
the CWA.

Late tonight, models show that with the continued south-
southeasterly winds, lower level moisture will work its way
north. The main axis into the early Tues morning hours is shown by
models to move into southwestern portions of the CWA. Combined
with the potential for lighter winds across those same areas due
to proximity to the sfc low/trough axis, can`t completely rule out
some patchy fog. At this point, if it does develop, it`d mainly
affect locations west of HW 281.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Overview...The overall pattern is an upper level ridge over the
plains. Consequently, most of the forecast area will be dry and
the only real chance for thunderstorms will be Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night and that storm system will likely miss most of
our forecast area to the east. Temperatures are expected to be
above normal through at least next weekend with highs Tuesday
through Friday primarily in the 70s, and then mid to upper 60s for
next weekend.

Tuesday into Tuesday night...This should be the most interesting
period as it is currently the only period where we have some
chance for thunderstorms. A weak shortwave will undercut the
overall upper ridge pattern, but the timing of this trough passage
is not very favorable for our forecast area and the better
moisture does not hook up with this system until it reaches the
Missouri river Tuesday evening. Therefore, western zones will
likely be dry and eastern zones stand only a low end chance of
catching a developing thunderstorm before it quickly slides east
of the forecast area. The 00z NAM does indicated decent 2000J/KG
CAPE values and a modest 30kts of deep layer 0-6km shear by late
afternoon. Therefore, if thunderstorms can develop across our
eastern zones before the front passes us by, we will have the
potential for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
primarily along the highway 81 corridor. Highs will generally be
in the 70s across southern Nebraska, but could hit 80 over
northern Kansas.

Wednesday through Friday...An upper level ridge will be located
over the plains Wednesday and Thursday while a northern plains
storm system will flatted out the upper ridge by Friday. Warm and
dry weather will persist with highs generally in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...The upper ridge will quickly return to the
area behind the departing northern plains shortwave. We could see
some slightly cooler air work into the region with highs in the
mid to upper 60s, which is still above normal for this time of
year. Normal highs for this weekend are right around 60.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Quiet weather remains in the forecast for this TAF, with VFR
conditions for the majority of the period. A weak surface pattern,
thanks to high pressure centered over ND/MN, is resulting in light
and at times variable winds this morning. This surface high will
slide east-southeast today, with winds turning more easterly, then
southeasterly this morning and remaining that way through the
period. Speeds look to top out around 10 kts. Late tonight, there
will be the potential for lower ceilings to work their way in,
along with some patchy fog. At this point the better potential for
fog looks to be west of the terminal areas. Did insert a mention
of MVFR ceilings late tonight.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.