Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250548
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1248 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

The last of a slug of rain will continue moving northeast over the
next few hours, which was largely aided by mid-level frontogenetic
forcing and a mid-level impulse within southwest flow, north of a
stalled front over Kansas.

This front will slowly sag south, but may still be close enough to
include continued chances, especially in our south/southeast,
with quickly decreasing chances of rain farther to the northwest.
With another perturbation likely tonight and possibly tomorrow,
it would be prudent to keep these chances in the forecast in our
far south.

Instability will generally be just enough to include isolated
thunder, but not enough combined with shear to have severe
weather.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

We will have continued chances of rain for most of the long term
as we remain within southwest flow with repeated impulses and
shortwave troughs moving through. The most significant shortwave
trough will be Friday night, and has been repeatedly forecast as
our best shot at some rain. Still not out of the question for some
severe weather, but instability will be relatively weak and shear
will be potential near 30 kts, as it appears now for Friday night.
We continue to see a mild warming trend to near normal
temperatures as the long term forecast unfolds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

General overview:
Confidence remains fairly in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout the
period...with mainly just plentiful mid-high level cloud cover
streaming overhead in persistent west-southwest flow aloft.
Visibility-wise, there could be a slim shot at a brief reduction
both early this morning and again very late in the period Thursday
night thanks to very light breezes and a fairly low temp-dewpoint
depression, but this does not look like a "great" fog setup and
will maintain VFR for now. Although a passing rain shower is not
completely out of the question especially during the daytime
hours, the vast majority of model guidance keeps steadier rain
chances at least 50-100 miles south of KGRI/KEAR so will leave out
any mention at this time. Surface winds should not be much of an
issue...with speeds averaging under 10kt. Direction will gradually
shift from more northerly to more easterly...but at times breezes
will likely be light enough to exhibit some variable direction as
well.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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