Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 041007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
407 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

The low level stratus evident in satellite imagery this morning
is gradually shifting east in response to a trough of low pressure
crossing central Nebraska. Expect some patchy...potentially dense
pockets of be possible on the departing edge of this
stratus as it exits the region over the next few hours. While most
locations have remained above 3 SM overnight...a few spots have
briefly dropped to near 1/4 SM over the past couple of hours...and
expect this possibility to continue until the area of clouds
pushes into eastern Nebraska by mid morning.

Otherwise...expect a generally nice early December day across the
region today as winds turn westerly...and remain light. Thanks to
these westerly winds and clearing skies...expect temperatures to
climb 10 to 15 degrees above yesterdays readings...with a few 50
degree readings possible in the warmest/snow free spots. Did keep
areas with patchy snow cover a few degrees below surrounding
areas...but should be a very nice
afternoon with light westerly breezes.

Continued mild late fall/early winter weather is expected while surface winds should drop off...clouds ahead of
an approaching disturbance and a modest LLJ above the mixing layer
should help keep overnight temps fairly mild...and did not need to
alter them significantly from inherited forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Monday will continue to be a mild day. There is a weak upper wave
that will move through the area along with a cold front. Even with
the cold front moving through during the day, the highs should
reach the mid 40s to around 50.

This front will bring an end to the mild weather and usher in colder
weather. Colder air will start to filter into the area Monday night.
Tuesday will be notably colder. There will be some clouds around.

An upper level wave will move into the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With the cold air already in place, the precipitation
will be snow. Light snow will move into the western part of the
forecast area Tuesday evening and spread across the forecast area
overnight. The models have a few differences and will have to watch
to see what happens. The GFS is further to the south with this
system and the ECMWF is further to the north. The southern part of
the forecast area should have some snow while there is some question
with how far north it will get. Have moved the PoPs a little further
to the north to be part way between the GFS and ECMWF. With the cold
air, the snow ratio will be higher and there could be a little more
snow with this.

By Wednesday afternoon, the snow will have moved to the east.
Temperatures will remain cold. A surface high will build into the
forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday. Skies will clear and
with the fresh snow and light winds, temperatures will drop off
rapidly. Wednesday through Thursday night will be the coldest with
highs in the teens and lows in the single digits. By Thursday night,
the surface high moves to the east and there will be a little warm
advection. Temperatures remain cold, even with the warm advection. By
Friday, the warm advection starts to show up and temperatures will
start to moderate. Another upper level wave moves into the area late
Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will be cold enough at
night to be snow, but as the temperatures warm during the day, the
snow should change over to rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Lots of LIFR stratus across the region this evening. Expect this
stratus to erode from west to east overnight as the low level flow
turns westerly...with some IFR or even LIFR VSBYS in areas of fog
for a couple of hours on the retreating edge of this stratus.
Overall...a nice day is anticipated across the region Sunday...
with VFR conditions generally returning by early to mid morning...
and light westerly winds 12kts or less expected during the
afternoon hours.




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