Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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974
FXUS63 KGID 201724
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES ALONG THE US/CAN WEST
COAST.  THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS OUR AREA IS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE SHOWN BY CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SLIDING THROUGH WRN
NEB. THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS JUST RECENTLY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CWA WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY CLOSER TO
THE DISTURBANCE ITSELF TO OUR W/NW...BUT CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BIT MORE LIGHT RAIN...AND SOME AT LEAST PATCHY DRIZZLE WITH
LOWER CEILINGS...THE REST OF THIS MORNING. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO NWRN NEB REMAINS THE
PRIMARY FEATURE...KEEPING WINDS N/NERLY AND ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
AROUND 10 MPH. LOW LEVEL STRATUS KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST...ALSO
HELPING KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH...WITH 3 AM OBS MAIN IN THE
LOWER/MID 40S.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THAT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO SWING NE TOWARD THE NEB/SD BORDER...WEAKENING/FILLING
WITH TIME AS IT PHASES WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CAN. NOT EXACTLY MAKING A SPEEDY
SHIFT TO THE EAST...CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RA/SHOWERS INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME NEAR/SUB
1000 FT CEILING STICKING AROUND...SO DECIDED TO ALSO INSERT A
MENTION OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO
HIGHS...WHICH AGAIN ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL...FORECAST IN THE
LOWER/MID 50S.

TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST ONCE AGAIN A
CONCERN. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. AT THE SFC...THAT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS/NWRN NEB IS SHOWN BY
MODELS TO SETTLE IN FURTHER SOUTH OVER WRN NEB/KS BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. SO WHILE WINDS WILL BE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT/AT TIMES
VARIABLE ACROSS THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING
MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE LIGHTEST /W-SWRN AREAS/. FURTHER TO THE N/NE...WINDS
WILL PROB BE AROUND 5 MPH...BUT THERE IS MORE POTENTIAL FOR LESS
CLOUD COVER. FORECAST LOWS IN THIS AREA MAY FLIRT WITH THE MID
30S...SO DECIDED TO INSERT A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92. LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

OVERVIEW...THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND THEN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD RUNNING FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY
NOT GOING TO RAIN EVERYDAY...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND MANY AREAS COULD CATCH AT LEAST SOME RAIN ON A
FEW OF THOSE DAYS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
PROVIDES OUR BEST FORCING. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD FORECAST MODEL
PRECIPITATION DISCREPANCIES INCREASE AS DOES THE UNCERTAINTY. IN
TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOME MODELS HINT AT OUR AREA BEING
THREATENED BY SEVERE STORMS SUCH AS THE 00Z GFS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z
ECMWF LOOKS MUCH LESS THREATENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WILL BE DRY AND COOL BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COOL START IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. THE WIND
WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH STILL IN THE VICINITY SO
ALTHOUGH COOL IT WILL NOT FEEL TOO BAD AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...THE FIRST SMALL PIECE OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN WAVE WILL
STILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS LEAD WAVE WILL SPREAD
PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS NORTHWARD BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY DRY INITIALLY AND THERE IS LITTLE
IF ANY INSTABILITY/CAPE. THEREFORE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING SOME GENERAL RAIN
SHOWERS. IT WILL BE COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN. OUR
FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MAY EVEN BE TO
WARM.

SATURDAY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER WITH
BRINGING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO OUR FORECAST ZONES AND
THUS ALSO INDICATES MODEST CAPE VALUES THAT ALONG WITH GOOD WIND
SHEAR COULD SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THUS IS DRIER WITH LESS INSTABILITY...AND
SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT. HENCE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OUT INTO THE
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. FORECAST
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY ALL OVER THE BOARD ON WHAT TO EXPECT DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY SOME LOW POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND MODEL UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE BETTER IRONED OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE CEILINGS AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH RECENT RAIN. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SLOWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT IT MAY OPEN THE
DOOR TO SOME EARLY AM PATCH FOG. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...BEDA



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