Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 172101
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

EXPECT A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...TO CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...WITH DRY
WEATHER ANTICIPATED LOCALLY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIODS.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SHOULD HELP KEEP UP
LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MORNINGS UNSEASONABLY COLD
READINGS...ALBEIT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID APRIL.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
FORECAST TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS MONTANA. THIS WILL ACT TO GENERATE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AT THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED A FEW DEGREES. THEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS
FURTHER EAST ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REALLY
TIGHTEN...AND FOR WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
CONTEMPLATED A WIND ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW...BUT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
COMING IN JUST A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE WITH SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF SURFACE TROUGH...SO OPTED FOR JUST A MENTION IN THE
HWO AND WILL LEAVE TO EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS TO DECIDE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. THAT SAID...STILL EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 25 MPH MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A PRETTY WINDY
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. OTHER THAN WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO JUMP BACK UP ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS AS WARM AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE SOUTH TOMORROW...AND UPPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WEEKEND AND MID WEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD HASNT SEEN MUCH CHANGE...MODELS
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS...PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN
PLACE NEAR THE GULF COAST AND OVER SRN CA...BUT ANOTHER UPPER LOW
SITS OVER THE MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS STARTS SLIDING EAST...ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BUILD IN AS BOTH DISTURBANCES TO THE WEST
CREEP CLOSER. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH AXIS
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA...WITH SRLY WINDS REMAINING IN THE 15 TO
20 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.  BY 12Z SATURDAY...AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED THROUGH THE SANDHILLS. AT THIS
POINT...ANY PRECIP CHANCES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST...SO
KEPT THE DRY FORECAST IN PLACE.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL LOOKING TO BE AN ACTIVE ONE...WITH THE
POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT BEING THE FEATURE OF INTEREST. THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE MONT/CAN BORDER SLIDES EAST SAT...WHILE A PIECE
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM IN THE
DESERT SW IS MOVING NE TOWARD THE REGION. THE PUSH FROM THE NRN
SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING OF SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT FURTHER SE INTO THE
AREA...WITH THE GENERAL IDEA THAT IT WILL BE DRAPED FROM SW/NE
THROUGH THE CWA. MODELS STILL VARY A LITTLE WITH THE EXACT
DETAILS...THE NAM/SREF ARE A TOUCH FURTHER INTO THE CWA /THE
MID/SERN THIRD/...VS THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM WHICH HANG IT UP OVER THE
NWRN CORNER OF THE CWA. FORECAST TIMING REMAINS A BLEND AT THIS
POINT...BUT ANY MODEL YOU LOOK AT SHOWS IT BEING A CONCERN. ADDED A
LITTLE MORE DETAIL TO TIMING OF PRECIP...TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT SAT
MORNING...AND TOTALLY REMOVED FROM 12-15Z. IF MODEL TRENDS
HOLD...DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ANYTHING PRIOR TO 18Z.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE BETTER CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED BY MODELS
TO OCCUR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING POST 00Z AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES IN AND A S/SWRLY
LLJ INCREASES TO ARND 40-50KTS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE
CWA...WITH INSTABILITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG /NAM SHOWING
VALUES CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG/. WHILE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISNT THE
GREATEST...ROUGHLY IN THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS /INSTABILITY TAPERS OFF SOME
OVERNIGHT/...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT THAT MENTION IN THE HWO.

HAD THOUGHT 24 HRS AGO THAT FOR SUNDAY...PRECIP WOULD BE TAPERING
OFF DURING MORNING...WITH NOT MUCH GOING ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND FROM THE 00Z RUNS OF A SLOWER
PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...SO COULD BE MORE
PRECIP FOR YOUR EASTER. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...BECAUSE IT WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURDAY PLAYS
OUT...AND WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY ENDS UP. QUESTION WITH WHETHER IT
WILL LINGER ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY LIKE MANY
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING...WHICH COULD BE A FOCUS FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE
MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY /SHOULD/ BE JUST OFF TO THE E/SE OF THE
CWA. LOT OF DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT...FOR BOTH DAYS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...DID BUMP UP HIGHS ON SATURDAY...MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD SEE BETTER MIXING WITH
GUSTY SRLY WINDS...FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM NEAR 70 NEAR ORD...TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS NC KS. SUNDAY IS COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60 TO NEAR 70.

KEPT THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK DRY...THOUGH SOME MODELS WOULD
SUGGEST THAT SOME PRECIP COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST...CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION AT THIS POINT. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY IN BETWEEN THIS
LATEST SYSTEM AND ANOTHER APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ONCE AGAIN SLIDING EAST ONTO AND THEN THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FROM THE
NORTH TO SERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.  LOW PRESSURE AGAIN BECOMING
ORGANIZED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
S/SERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA...AND TEMPS BY TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S.

WED/THURS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
CWA...BUT LOT OF QUESTIONS LINGER IN THIS DAY 6/7 TIMEFRAME. BY THE
TIME 12Z WED ROLLS AROUND...MODELS ARENT IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING MOVED INTO THE PAC
NW REGION...WITH TROUGHING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WRN CONUS AND
SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS.  THOUGH IT MAY BE CLOSER TO THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE THIS MAIN LOW SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS...PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT COULD
BRING PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE CWA. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW
SIDE...UNTIL TIMING/LOCATION OF THE DISTURBANCES...FRONTAL POSITIONS
AND OTHER FEATURE DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT...BUT IT IS A PERIOD
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING TO EVENTUALLY
SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
OVERALL...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AS THIS MORNINGS STRATUS
HAS BURNED OFF NEAR THE TERMINAL.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...ROSSI



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