Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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465
FXUS63 KGID 180817
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
317 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

No major concerns today and tonight as it looks to be
dry with above normal temperatures.

Current water vapor imagery along with upper air data showing a wavy
pattern over the CONUS. One weak mid level shortwave pushed
through the CWA earlier this evening, with another stronger wave
sliding through Canada and the northern U.S. Plains. These waves
are moving quickly to the east with upper ridging building into
the northern Rockies. Meanwhile at the surface, a deep low
pressure was situated along the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border about
450 miles north of the U.S. border. A surface trough extends
southwest across the Dakotas. At the moment the CWA has
southerly winds ahead of the trough axis but this will change
later today.

With the pattern noted above being fairly progressive, expect the
trough axis to push into the NW part of the CWA right around sunrise
this morning and exit the SE CWA by late afternoon. Limited low
level moisture with this system so rain chances nil. The most
notable feature will be the winds switching from the south to the NW
and these could also be a bit gusty in the northwest CWA late
this morning. Regarding fire weather concerns, it appears the
strongest winds at 15+ kt will be a few hours prior to max
heating, and the lowest relative humidity, so don`t believe we
will need any fire wx headlines. Regarding high temps for today,
apparently guidance has been a few degrees too cool lately so
upped forecast highs a degree or two across most of the CWA.
Otherwise tonight should be quiet as surface high pressure drops
in from the north and settles over Neb.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Quiet weather expected to continue for the rest of the
work week as upper level high pressure builds into the central
and eastern CONUS while a trough digs into the west coast. High
temps for Thu and Fri are expected to continue to be some 10-15
degrees warmer than average and dry weather persists.

The mid level trough is progged to slide east over the Rockies and
start to influence our area late Friday night and Saturday. There
may be a few warm advection type tstms ahead of the main trough late
Friday night but the better chance for rain is on Saturday as the
upper wave, and associated cold front slide east across the central
Plains. The latest runs of the operational GFS and EC models push
the surface front through our CWA Sat morning. It appears we do
have a chance for tstms Sat morning along the front, but the
favored chances lie to our east where better moisture return will
be found. This area should also see ample daytime heating as the
front arrives there later in the day. We will need to monitor the
trends of the models as any slowdown of the system would increase
our chances for rain.

One final item of note involves the winds Fri & Sat. The models are
progging a fairly deep surface system, and a tight pressure gradient
could result in some windy conditions over the region both ahead of,
and behind the cold front. Similar to previous shifts, raised wind
speeds from initial Superblend after consulting with neighboring
WFOs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Expecting VFR conditions through the forecast period. KUEX WSR-88D
VAD wind profile was showing southwest winds off the deck up to 40
kt so went ahead and added LLWS from 06Z until 12Z. There is a
surface trough moving through later this morning and winds will
gradually shift from south to west to northwest by noon. As far as
clouds are concerned, everything should be above 20 kft.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald



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