Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 142020
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT.

HASNT BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...WITH
DATA SHOWING FLOW REMAINING MAINLY NWRLY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION...AND
DISTURBANCES OVER CANADA KEEP THE NRN CONUS UNDER BROAD TROUGHING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES
POTENTIALLY HITTING THE GROUND IN NC KS...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
CWA HAVE BEEN DRY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VARIABLE SKY COVER. AT THE
SFC...THE CWA IS BEING AFFECTED PRIMARILY BY DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CO...RESULTING IN SRLY WINDS...WHICH
HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT TIMES ACROSS WRN AREAS. TEMPS SO FAR HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THAT ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY GENERALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE REALLY HASNT BEEN MUCH
CHANGE IN THE 12Z MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO VARY WITH HOW MUCH/IF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACTUALLY DEVELOP/AFFECT THE CWA AS IT SWINGS
THROUGH. WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH AND INCREASED LIFT
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30- 40KT LLJ...CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...BUT THE MOST RECENT HRRR/RAP/4KM SHOW
VERY LITTLE HAPPENING. KEPT POPS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
INHERITED...LOW POPS THIS EVENING INCREASING TO THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AFTER. MODELS/FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENING UP
WITH TIME THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST
ELEVATED INSTABILITY...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES SHOWN TO
BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...CANT RULE OUT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND WILL KEEP MENTION GOING IN THE HWO.

THE ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED THROUGH
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. HAVE SOME LINGERING LOW POPS AND DRIZZLE IN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE CWA TO
THE SE...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY DRY. LOOKS TO BE A NICE
AFTERNOON...EXPECTING DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER /THOUGH AS THE SUN
COMES OUT CU COULD DEVELOP/...WIND SPEEDS TAPERING OFF AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-ZONAL STARTING FRIDAY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.

AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA SHOULD PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
AXIS OF A ~25KT JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PROMOTE ENOUGH THERMAL ADVECTION FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED
BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND TO A LESSER
EXTEND THE NAM. WENT AHEAD WITH 20-30% POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER ~25KT
JET STREAK JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLD PROMOTE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST ANY OF THE CWA...A SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY
QPF FIELDS FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC. ALLBLEND PROVIDED
20-30% POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE POPS WERE LEFT UNCHANGED FOR
THE MOST PART.

THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLBLEND RESPONDED BY PROVIDING
20-50% POPS TO THE AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT...PER THE
NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS...SUGGEST PARCELS ROOTED TO BETWEEN
700MB 800MB WILL HAVE ~1500J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY TO WORK
WITH...ALONG WITH DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ~35KTS. GIVEN
THIS...WILL GO AHEAD AND OUTLOOK THE POTENTIAL FOR NICKEL-SIZE
HAIL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RESULTANT
THERMAL ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND DURING MUCH
OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS STARTING IN THE 60S
AND LOW 70S ON TUESDAY BUT WARMING INTO THE 70S AND 80S TO FINISH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL LIKELY START IN THE 40S
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TO FINISH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

QUIET WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MAIN CONCERN COMING LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AS DETERIORATING CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND COOL FRONT PASS THROUGH THE REGION. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO...MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH WHETHER THE AREA WILL
SEE SHOWERS/TSTORMS OR MORE IN THE WAY OF DZ...SO KEPT TS MENTION
JUST AS VC AT THIS POINT. THERE REMAINS BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING
DROPPING CLOUD BASES...AND KEPT THE CEILINGS IN THE IFR CATEGORY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE IMPROVING DURING THE
MID/LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...ADP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.