Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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749
FXUS63 KGID 202148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The cool front has moved through the region throughout the day.
Skies have cleared behind the front and northwest winds have been
breezy 20 to 25 mph with gusts to over 30 mph.

Tonight winds will decrease and temperatures will cool down with
lows in the low to mid 30s. There is a chance for record warm
minimums today, but it`ll be close, depends on how quickly it
cools tonight.

There are a couple of concerns for Tuesday and Wednesday. 1. Fire
weather and 2. Record high temperatures.

1. Have kept the fire weather watch for tomorrow. Relative
humidities are not the question. Expect RH values to drop into the
teens during the afternoon, but south to southwest wind speeds are
a bigger question. The best chances for wind to exceed 20 mph is
along and north of I-80 and along and east of Hwy 81. Will allow
the next shift to take a look and determine the need for the
upgrade to a warning. Have the same challenges/concerns for
Wednesday with relative humidities in the teens, but a question
mark with how strong winds will go.
2. Record high temperatures will be in jeopardy both days.
Maximum insolation and mixing will help temps soar on Tuesday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s. Confidence is fairly high that the
record temperatures will fall at both Grand Island and Hastings
Tuesday. See the details below in the climate section. Wednesday
will also be warm, but am currently forecasting slightly below
records at both locations. However, the forecast is still within a
few degrees of current records, so think there is a potential to
break them.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

The main forecast concern in the extended is the system that will
impact the are Thursday into Friday. The main trough over the
western CONUS will approach for Thursday with a low developing
along the OK/TX/KS/NM corner before moving eastward along the
OK/KS border. The system is expected to begin with liquid before
transitioning to snow during the evening hours Thursday and
persisting through the day Friday. It is still early to determine snow
fall accumulations, but the better chance for higher accumulations
does appear to be across western, central and northern Nebraska.
Stay tuned to this system as the forecast evolves as it nears.

This system will usher in more seasonable temperatures with highs
in the 30s to 40s through the remainder of the extended. There is
a second chance for snowfall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail.  The main aviation forecast
concern is the wind shift and breezy winds behind the front. The
front is currently...as of this issuance has passed through KEAR
and is on the doorstep of KGRI. Winds are breezy out of the
northwest and are expected to impact the terminals through the
afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening and become light and
variable, eventually turning to the south by morning. Skies will
be mostly clear...but a few mid- level clouds may move through
this afternoon.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Fire weather concerns continue through the next couple of days
ahead of the next big system. Temperatures will be well above
normal, with records possible. Dry air and mixing drier air down
will allow Relative humidities to be in the teens both Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoons. This is a large concern, but the question
comes in with how strong the winds will be for both days. Reaching
20 mph could be a struggle at least across portions of the area.
On Tuesday winds will have the best chance to meet the 20 mph
criteria along and north of I-80 and east of Hwy 81. Please stay
tuned to the forecast for tomorrow as the fire weather watch may
be upgraded to a warning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Records for February 20, 21st, 22nd for Grand Island and Hastings

February 20th Record Warm Low`s
Grand Island.....41 degrees in 1916
Hastings.........42 degrees in 1930

February 21st Record High`s
Grand Island.....75 degrees in 1995
Hastings.........73 degrees in 1995

February 22nd Record High`s
Grand Island.....76 degrees in 1982
Hastings.........75 degrees in 1982

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright
FIRE WEATHER...Billings Wright
CLIMATE...Billings Wright



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