Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 202024
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...SPOTTY SHWRS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THEN
A BURST OF N WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING MILD...

ALOFT: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE CONUS...WITH FASTER MORE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALONG THE US-CANADIAN BORDER. THE SLOWER/WEAKER
SRN STREAM WAS OVER THE SRN USA. A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROF WAS
OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS TROF WILL CONTINUE E INTO ONTARIO THRU
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...A COMPACT LOW WAS OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IT
TOO WILL MOVE E ROUGHLY IN PHASE WITH THE NRN TROF. THE FLOW WILL
CONSOLIDATE TOMORROW AND BECOME NW AS A RIDGE ADVANCES THRU THE
WRN USA...AHEAD OF A TROF THAT WILL MOVE ONTO THE W COAST MON
NIGHT.

SURFACE: THE REMNANTS OF A COOL FRONT EXTENDED SW-NE FROM THE
SANDHILLS TO NEAR MCCOOK. A PACIFIC ORIGIN COOL FRONT WAS
PROGRESSING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON /ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SASK TROF/ AND WE JUST EMERGING INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. NRN PLAINS HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN TOMORROW.

THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHWRS AND TSTMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT LAST LONG AT ANY ONE
LOCATION...BUT COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU ROUGHLY 6
PM.

MLCAPE WILL ONLY PEAK AT 500-750 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
LESS THAN 15 KTS. SO SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE. THE ONLY REAL
ORGANIZATION WILL BE SMALL CLUSTERS WHERE SHWRS/TSTMS IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY GENERATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO A COMMON COLD POOL.

INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE TOO WEAK FOR STRONG STORMS. SO THAT
POTENTIAL THREAT WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE HWO AT 1153 AM.

QPF: UNFORTUNATELY...THE SHWRS/TSTMS WONT LAST LONG ENOUGH TO BE
OF MUCH BENEFIT.

TONIGHT: THE SCT SHWRS/TSTMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH OR END 7PM-9PM. WITH THE NEXT COOL
FRONT MOVING IN LATE...CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
RENEWED SHWR ACTIVITY /POSSIBLY THUNDER?/ S AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES.

CLOUD DEBRIS FROM DISSIPATED SHWRS/TSTMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
SCOURED FROM NW-SE...MAINLY N AND W OF THE TRI-CITIES. USED BIAS
CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS.

TOMORROW: THE DAY WILL START WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS FROM THE TRI-
CITIES S AND E WILL CONTINUE DEPARTING TO THE SE. COULD STILL SEE
A COULD SHWRS OVER THE FAR SE FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA /E OF A LINE
FROM YORK-NELSON-BELOIT/.

WIND: THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A
DECREASING 6 HR PRES RISE MAXIMUM. COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE BURST
OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT ABOUT A 6-HR PERIOD OF WINDY
CONDITIONS FORENOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE CONSENSUS OF ALL GUIDANCE /MOS AND RAW MODEL 2M TEMPS/
APPEARED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEWPOINTS. KNOCKED 1-2F OFF
AFTER EXAMINING FCST SOUNDINGS. BUT THIS WILL STILL KEEP MINIMUM
RH LEVELS JUST ABOVE 20%. THERE SHOULD ONLY BE ABOUT 3 HRS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS RH LEVELS
BOTTOM OUT.

THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN HIGH TEMP GUIDANCE. USED THE
WEIGHTED CONSENSUS OF THE RECENTLY BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS SECTION WILL UPDATE BY 4 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS...BUT THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TEMPORARY MVFR SHWR/TSTM. AT THIS TIME THE RISK
IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF...BUT WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

TONIGHT: QUITE A BIT OF MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUD DEBRIS WILL BE
LEFT AROUND FROM SCT SHWRS/TSTMS. A WEAK COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME...WITH A WSHFT TO NW.
CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON THRU 18Z: VFR AND BASICALLY SKC. NW WINDS WILL BECOME N...
INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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