Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 151002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
402 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Temperatures will rebound across the region today despite a cool westerly downslope flow and warm air advection helps
maximize temperatures across the local area. With some clouds
hanging around the local area early this morning...we are seeing
nearly a 10 degree temperature spread from areas with clouds
across our east...from areas across our west that have cleared
out. Based on latest satellite and model trends...think this
cloud cover will continue to exit the region by daybreak...with a
seasonably cool start to the day for the entire forecast area.

Despite the cool start to the influx of warmer air in
westerly flow will mark a return to well above normal temperatures
for mid December by the early afternoon hours...with most
locations expected to top off in the mid 50s...or almost 20
degrees above expected high temperatures for the 15th of December.
Additionally...the combination of these warm temperatures...a
relatively dry airmass...and occasional wind gusts to near 20
MPH...will result in elevated fire weather conditions across the
southwestern quadrant of the local area during the afternoon

For tonight...expect mostly clear skies and a surface trough
to pass across the region...and consequently leaned towards the
cooler side of guidance. That said...with a warmer airmass in
place and the westerly component to even light winds...low
temperatures Saturday morning should remain several degrees above
this mornings more seasonable lows.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Looking at the bigger picture...A brief dip in temperatures back
closer to climatology is expected behind a dry cold front on
Sunday...with a return to well above normal temperatures through
the middle potion of the week. Later in the week...however...large
and more persistent changes appear in store for the local a stronger cold front makes its way across the region.
While moisture is still fairly limited with this does
appear there will at least be a chance for some light accumulating
snowfall on Thursday...with cooler weather then settling in across
the local area for an extended period of time.

Starting Saturday...continued above normal temperatures along
with fairly light winds should make for a very nice start to the
weekend. While an approaching cold front will likely hold
temperatures down a few degrees from this afternoons highs...still
expect widespread 50s across the local area by the afternoon hours.
The aforementioned cold front will then make a push across the
local area Sunday...temporarily dropping temperatures back into
the upper 30s and lower 40s. With very dry air persisting in the
mid levels behind this appears no more than some
passing mid/high level clouds can be expected with this cold

For the start of the workweek...a return to westerly low level
flow and rising heights aloft will result in a quick rebound to
well above normal temperatures by Monday afternoon...with these
above normal temperatures persisting into Wednesday afternoon as a
Pacific system begins to make its way across the Rockies. Expect
the associated cold front and forcing from the upper level low to
result in at least the chance for some light accumulating snowfall
Thursday...although the trajectory and quick moving natures of
this system does not favor a significant event for the local area.
This front...however...will mark a return to near or below normal
temperatures to end the work week...with high temperatures both
Thursday and Friday likely not climbing out of the mid-30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. That said...plenty
of lower clouds near 5KFT is visible in Satellite imagery and
being observed at KGRI and sites just north of the terminals at
this time. Expect BKN cloud cover to spread across the both
terminals through early Friday morning...with CIGS improving to
above 12Kft during the morning hours. Overnight...northwesterly
winds will gradually shift and become southwesterly by midday
Friday as a surface trough passes to the northwest.




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