Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160854
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
354 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY WITH ONLY A MINOR DIFFERENCE IN
TEMPS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND A BIT WINDIER...

ALOFT: WNW FLOW ENCOMPASSED THE CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF
WAS ENTERING NEB/SD EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROF WILL CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW
BEHIND THIS EVENING. AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TONIGHT...WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER WRN N AMERICA. THIS WILL FORCE
A PAIR OF PHASED TROFS /ONE CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND
THE OTHER OVER NV/ TO MOVE THRU HERE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SURFACE: LOW PRES WAS OVER SRN SD AND MOVING E WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW HEADS
FOR THE GREAT LAKES...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP S AND CROSS THE
FCST AREA TODAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL THEN EXTEND S...BUILDING
IN TONIGHT.

NOW THRU SUNRISE: BREEZY AND VERY MILD. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW FRINGE OF THE FCST AREA
/GOTHENBURG-ORD/. WE DID SEE SPRINKLES AT ALLIANCE AROUND
07Z...BUT THE MID-LEVEL PATCHES OF REFLECTIVITY MOVING THRU THE
SANDHILLS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP AS THEY MOVE E. SO THE FCST IS DRY.


TODAY: DECREASING CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS THE INITIAL TROF EXITS
TO THE E. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL COOLING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THE INFLUENCE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROF WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER N-CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON.

CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A COUPLE SPRINKLES N AND E OF THE TRI-
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE FRONTAL INVERSION CASTS DOUBT
ON THIS POSSIBILITY. NOT SURE STRATOCU CAN BECOME DEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PRECIP. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FCST...N AND E OF THE TRI-CITIES.

COLD AIR ADVECTION MAKES HIGH TEMPS DIFFICULT. USED HI-RES GEM
WHICH HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS.

WINDY AGAIN TODAY...WITH WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO NW AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL GUST 25-35 MPH...HIGHEST N AND W OF
THE TRI- CITIES. AN ISOLATED G40-45 IS POSSIBLE FROM ELWOOD-
LEXINGTON- GREELEY. WE NOTED THE GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH AT BFF/AIA
OVERNIGHT.

TONIGHT: DRY AND FAIRLY CLOUDY...ESPECIALLY S OF I-80. WINDS
SUBSIDE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 7 PM. USED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS
/CONSRAW/ AS IT KEEPS TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO FAR UNDER THICK CLOUD
COVER S OF I-80. LOWS PROBABLY END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
NORMAL... ESPECIALLY UNDER THINNER CLOUDS TO THE N.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THIS SECTION UPDATES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z GRI TAF THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT.
BRISK S WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE GUSTY. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE...BUT SCT STRATOCU WILL DEVELOP 4-5K FT. FROPA WILL OCCUR
14Z-15Z WITH AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT TO W. THEN NW WINDS WILL GUST
TO 32 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED EVE: VFR. STRATOCU DISSIPATE LEAVING JUST CIRRUS. WINDS
SUBSIDE BY 01Z AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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