Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 081706
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1206 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

MORE VERY MINOR CHANGES FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE. IN
SHORT...TACKED ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO ONTO AFTERNOON HIGHS MOST
PLACES...LOWERED DEWPOINTS 1-2 DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS
AND FAIRLY DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750 MILLIBARS PER NAM
SOUNDINGS...AND ALSO TACKED A FEW MORE MPH ONTO WIND SPEEDS MAINLY
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST 1/2 OF THE CWA...AS THE WIND FORECAST UPDATE
EARLIER THIS MORNING APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT FOR
CENTRAL-NORTHEAST COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE: OTHER THAN THE
BREEZE...A SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND NO-WORSE-THAN MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOON CWA-WIDE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY LOW-80S NORTH TO MAINLY
MID-80S/ISOLATED UPPER 80S SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

ALTHOUGH THE INHERITED DAYTIME FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT WAS
LARGELY IN GREAT SHAPE...JUST UPDATED MAINLY TO INCREASE WIND
SPEEDS SLIGHTLY. ESSENTIALLY...SUSTAINED SPEEDS WERE INCREASED UP
TO AROUND 3 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 5 MPH...MEANING THAT IT
WILL MOST DEFINITELY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BREEZY FEEL OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...AS GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15
MPH IN SOUTHWEST ZONES...15-20 MPH CENTRAL AND 20-25 MPH MAINLY
NORTHEAST/EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES BUT POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE GRAND
ISLAND AREA AS WELL. NO OTHER NOTICEABLE CHANGES MADE TO DAYTIME
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD WEATHER-WISE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE PUSHED SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE SUNRISE....WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY.

ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...TUESDAY WILL BE AN OVERALL NICE DAY. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH TODAY...WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO
ABOUT 20 MPH FOR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 80 TO 87 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. I WENT WITH SUPERBLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY. SUPERBLEND HAS
BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL IN THE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR HIGHS. I
CONSIDERED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AFFECTING THE MODEL PERFORMANCE...BUT
THE COLD FRONT WAS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY WORRIED ABOUT THE
BOUNDARY COMPROMISING THE OUTCOME. EITHER WAY...THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS IS RATHER LOW. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THESE TEMPERATURES ARE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. NORMAL HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...AND LOWS
TYPICALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FAIRLY
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WHICH IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WITHIN THIS SUMMER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TEND TO BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN MORE THAN A COUPLE DAYS OUT AND THOSE WITH
WEATHER SENSITIVE PLANS SHOULD REGULARLY CHECK FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES. THE FORECAST DIFFICULTY IS IN THAT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPEND ON SUBTLE SHORT WAVES THAT ARE
TYPICALLY NOT WELL RESOLVED BY FORECAST MODELS MORE THAN A FEW DAYS
OUT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BEING
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF REALITY IS RATHER HIGH. OVERALL EXPECT WE
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN THEREAFTER INTO MONDAY. OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S WITH KANSAS SEEING UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENINGS. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
EVENING CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING BEING OUR NORTHEAST ZONES.
IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...THE TRI CITIES COULD EASILY BE SPLIT
BY THESE TWO WEAK SYSTEMS AND COME OUT DRY. SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY ONE OF OUR REGIONS BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGGING A LITTLE
DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SFC COOL FRONT SLIDING THROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAF THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VFR VISIBILITY/CEILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY CLOUD COVER MAINLY CONSISTING OF SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A MORE SOLID
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TAFS REMAIN VOID OF ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MENTION...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THIS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 18 HOURS...THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS IN
THE LATEST MODEL DATA THAT THERE COULD BE BRIEF...PASSING
SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE FINAL 4 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD (AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY). THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON DURING NEXT FEW TAF ISSUANCES. AS FOR SURFACE
WINDS...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST SPEEDS AT LEAST 12KT WITH GUST
POTENTIAL CLOSER TO 20KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DECREASING TO LIGHT/VARIABLE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES FOR WED. MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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