Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 301725
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE SHORT TERM IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DETERMINING THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. TODAY WE WILL BE IN
A REGION OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP US DRY AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE CWA...WHICH IS STILL STATIONARY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. WE COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING AS RECENT RAIN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS AND CALM WIND ALONG WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. NOT MUCH
REDUCTION AND VISIBILITY HAS OCCURRED YET...BUT COULD VERY WELL DO
SO TOWARD SUNRISE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE SHOVES EAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENTER OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT AND BRING IN SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TYPE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WEAK AS WELL. THEREFORE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSHOWER ACTIVITY.

I KEPT SATURDAY HIGHS AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...LEANING MORE TOWARD CONSRAW FOR LOWS SATURDAY
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

EXPECTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN RIGHT OFF THE BAT IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKING TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...THE CWA IS PRIMARILY
INFLUENCED BY A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. KEPT THE INHERITED SMALL POPS
GOING DURING THE MORNING...WHILE MODELS ARENT IT TOTAL
AGREEMENT...SOME STILL SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...THANKS TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND TO INCREASED LIFT
VIA A STRONGER LLJ IN PLACE.

SHOULD ACTIVITY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING IT TO BE SEVERE...AND EXPECT IT TO SHIFT EAST AND TAPER
OFF WITH TIME AS THE LLJ WEAKENS. THINKING THERE WILL BE A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY...BUT THE LENGTH OF THE BREAK DEPENDS ON THE MODEL.
VARY FROM THINGS HOLDING OFF WELL INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THANKS AT LEAST IN PART TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS HELPING KEEP
THINGS CAPPED...WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO FIRE A
LITTLE SOONER DURING THE AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST.  DECIDED TO KEEP THE 20-30 POPS GOING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON...THEN RAMPING THEM UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE PRIOR
TO 00Z. CONTINUED THE THINKING IN THE GRIDS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
WILL COME DURING THE EVENING HOURS POST-00Z...AND THE LIKELY POPS
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA REMAINS IN PLACE. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS TO BE A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PASSAGE...AND HAVE
POPS TAPERING BACK QUICKLY 06-12Z WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY.

HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE THINKING IN REGARD TO
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...AND THE CWA REMAINS IN THE SPC SLIGHT
RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE STARTING TO JUST CREEP INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...AND NOT NECESSARILY MAKING A NOTABLE EASTWARD SHIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT MAKES MORE PROGRESS WITH THE BETTER PUSH
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPS IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S
EXPECTED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING INSTABILITY NOT BEING MUCH OF A CONCERN ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP...WITH SOME /MAINLY THE NAM/ SHOWING SOME
HEFTY MUCAPE VALUES...AND SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY.  LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE TORNADIC THREAT...ESP FOR ANY STORMS THAT ARE MORE DISCRETE
BEFORE MORE OF A LINEAR MODE DEVELOPS ALONG THE SFC FRONT.

AS MENTIONED...THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY
REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION
CONTINUING BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...BUT THE BETTER LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST. THE SFC COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE CLEARED THE CWA TO THE E/SE NEAR SUNRISE...WITH
HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY AND BRINGING DIMINISHING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. A COOLER AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THAT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MID 80S WITH DPTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING A MORE GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...PERHAPS BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MAINLY THE ECMWF
/TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM/ STILL SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
WAVE BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH. OTHERWISE...KEPT THE DRY FORECAST GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL POPS RETURNING THUR NIGHT/FRIDAY.
TEMPS LOOK TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S/90S BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD...BUT AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND INCREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...ADO
AVIATION...JCB


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