Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 212343
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES.

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME CIRRUS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A FEW
LOCATIONS HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THAT HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 20
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE DAY AND ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE.
EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIGRATES EASTWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOWLEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND THE LLVL JET IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 50KTS. GOOD MID LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED AND THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH INSTABILITY PROGS AROUND A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG.

THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS MT WITH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  SOUTHERLY LLVL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ON WEDNESDAY IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF THE SFC LOW MOVING EAST FM THE HIGH PLAINS.  THE WINDIEST
CONDITIONS WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND WINDS WILL
DROP OFF FROM W/E AS THE SFC TROUGH AND DRY LINE PUSH EAST INTO
CENTRAL NEB/WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MIXING TO AROUND H85 IN THE MORNING...INCREASING TO
AROUND H7 IN THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AT
OR ABOVE 30KTS. CURRENTLY HAVE NEAR WIND ADVISORY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST/HWO AND THIS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK ATTM. AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND AN AXIS OF SFC DPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
LOW/MID 50S ACROSS KS INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEB. SREF INSTABILITY
PROGS INDICATE INSTABILITY AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH OPERATIONAL
MODELS HIGHER THAN THIS WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY POOLED
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND DRY LINE. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AROUND 30KTS AND HIGHER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR
THIS SPRING AND CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS. CONVECTION SHLD FOCUS
ALONG THE DRY LINE/COOL FRONT AND EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS.
INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE ENTIRE LINE
SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE ADVANCING BOUNDARIES. CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE COOL FRONT AND
UPPER LOW MOVE ACROSS...WITH CHCS DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS.

HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE ZONAL TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING BY THE END OF THE
WEEK/START OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON SATURDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW TRANSLATES FM CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY PERIODS ARE VERY UNSETTLED AND WILL BE DEPENDENT
UPON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OF
THE ROCKIES AND ONTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND INCONSISTENCIES AMONG MODELS...DID NOT DEVIATE FROM
CR INIT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER WITH THE THERMAL PROFILE THAN
THE GFS AND IS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT THE GFS IS NOT AS COOL.
STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE AS THINGS GET CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN AROUND SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINS TO STABILIZE. THE WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY DAWN.
A SOUTHEAST WIND WILL RAMP UP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED
WILL BE A SCATTERED MID DECK DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE COME DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
DECREASE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WAS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LAST NIGHT EVEN IF THERE WERE
NOT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY LOCATIONS THAT
MAY HAVE THREE HOURS WHERE CONDITIONS MAY REACH CRITERIA...BUT
WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IT WILL BE A CHALLENGE TO REACH CRITERIA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY
FIRE WEATHER...JCB



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