Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 011116
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
616 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A
COLD FRONT STRETCHING EAST AND WEST FROM THE LOW.

THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO MORE SUNSHINE.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT.
MODELS HAVE A FEW SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAVE. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE LATER WHILE SOME OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE KEPT THE EVENING HOURS DRY AND EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ROTATING NEAR THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER THIS
MORNING WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH MULTIPLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE REGION IN THE RESULTANT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL THEN WEAKEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH AN EVEN MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
DEVELOPING...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL QUICK PASSING DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TO START THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TAKING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
ON THURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. WHILE THE OVERALL AIRMASS WILL NOT BE RADICALLY
COOLER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW CLIMO FOR THURSDAY...IN
PART DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...ALBEIT PARAMETERS ARE NOT
QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAYS MORNINGS RUNS WERE INDICATING.
EVEN SO...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FROM SPC...AND MODEL DATA IS IN SUPPORT OF THIS.

THEREAFTER...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SETS IN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL...SO KEPT ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST
FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH THEN SOME FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE YET ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MODELS ARE NOT IN PERFECT AGREEMENT...THERE DOES AT LEAST LOOK TO BE
SEVERAL DECENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS WITH TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING. THE SURFACE LOW IS SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL AREAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL HAVE A EAST OR NORTHEAST COMPONENT TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT IS SUCH A
SMALL CHANCE WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB



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