Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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059
FXUS63 KGID 142206
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
406 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Precipitation Ending...The rain showers/sprinkles will gradually
come to an end from northwest to southeast later this afternoon
into early this evening as the upper trough exits the area. Can
not rule out a few wet snowflakes before the precipitation ends,
but certainly not a big deal.

Temperatures...
Tonight...The clouds will gradually scatter out some later
this evening making for a mostly clear night with decreasing
winds. Consequently, expect good radiational cooling tonight
behind the departing storm system and lows ranging from the upper
teens to lower 20s. Decided to go with the cooler model guidance
for tonight`s lows.

Friday...We expect upper level ridging across the rockies and
high plains with warmer air moving into our area aloft and at the
surface with downsloping west southwesterly surface winds.
Therefore we expect a nice warm up on Friday from those cold
morning lows to highs around 50 east to the mid and upper 50s
southwestern zones.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Saturday...We will start to see the beginning of a pattern change
with an upper trough over the western states on Saturday. We will
see a cold front track through our forecast area late in the day
or Saturday night allowing most areas to squeak out a nice day
with highs in the 50s. If the cold air arrives early these highs
might be too warm. It is expected to be a dry frontal passage.

Sunday...It appears that any moisture with this next system will
split us with some rain chances southeast of our forecast area and
snow chances to the northwest. Models have been trending more this
way. Therefore, we are calling for a cool but dry day. Highs will
should still be near normal in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Monday-Wednesday...We see a return to weak ridging over the
western states on Monday that transitions east into the plains on
Wednesday making for a dry and warm few days with highs back into
the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday...This is really when the entire larger upper pattern
will likely begin to change with colder air just starting to move
in. We expect to see a deepening trough across the western and
central states that should become a more persistent feature. For
this reason, the 8 to 14 day forecast is calling for colder than
normal temperatures, which can get down right brutal this time of
year and at least an increased chance of storm systems on the
plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

The light rain showers will likely continue off and on through the
afternoon, but should not add up to more than 0.01 to 0.04 inches.
Can not rule out a few snow flakes mixing in at times, but not a
big deal. Low end MVFR ceilings are likely to continue this
afternoon until the precipitation comes to an end by early evening
and then ceilings should rise. The wind could be a bit gusty at
times this afternoon out of the northwest.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely



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