Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 270100
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
800 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Skies have already cleared out across the western 2/3rds of the
forecast area and will likely continue to clear across eastern
zones over the next few hours giving us numerous hours of clear
skies and light winds before higher clouds move back in from the
west around dawn. In addition, we have some guidance values for
Ord, such as the 18z MAV guidance that indicates lows could fall
to 25 degrees in our far north. Therefore, lowered temperatures
for tonight a bit, especially across our north and upgraded to a
freeze warning. Mid clouds towards dawn will be the thing to watch
out for, but overall it looks like at least several hours below
freezing across these northern zones before any warmer cloud
banks move in.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Satellite and observations show low clouds lingering for much of the
forecast area this afternoon. There are a few more breaks in the
clouds than there were earlier and the west is starting to clear
out. Surface analysis has a ridge of high pressure across western
Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.

The surface ridge is expected to continue to drift to the east the
remainder of the afternoon and tonight. The skies should clear
during the afternoon and evening. Initially, the question is will it
clear enough this afternoon to get a few degrees of warming before
the sun is down too far. The rest of the clouds should diminish
quickly as the sun goes down this evening. The high pressure ridge
will also allow the winds to diminish this evening. With clearing
skies and light winds, the temperatures will fall off fairly rapidly
during the evening. Will continue with the frost advisory as it
stands at this time. There continues to be a few caveats with the
temperatures for tonight. First, the clouds need to clear out this
evening. That should be a minimum concern. The next problem is
another area of clouds that should be moving into the area
overnight. If there are more clouds that move in, the west/southwest
part of the forecast area could be a little warmer, but we`re close
enough to have a frost potential.

Thursday morning will remain cool but temperatures will start to
warm up in the morning. As the surface high moves to the east, winds
will turn to the south and there will be some warm advection. Even
with the clouds moving into the area, the temperatures should warm
better than the past couple of days.

An upper level wave moves into the area during the day on Thursday.
The models have a few differences in the timing of the wave. Have
opted to keep the early morning hours dry, but as the wave
approaches showers will move into the forecast area from the west.
Most of the area will be dry in the morning, then chances increase
during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This continues to be an active period. The upper wave from Thursday
continues to move through and the best chances for showers will be
Thursday night into Friday morning. The wave moves through and the
precipitation will move through the area during this time. Thursday
evening will be the best chance in the southern parts of the area,
then Friday morning for the north. There are a few differences in
the timing and what happens for Friday afternoon. The GFS and NAM
both move the precipitation mainly out of the area, while the ECMWF
keeps some precipitation around during the afternoon. Have kept some
lower PoPs in the forecast at this time, but there could be a break
during the afternoon.

Friday night will have some similarities to Friday afternoon. There
could be a break during the evening and even into the overnight. The
upper level wave that moved through is weaker and there is a
developing upper level low in the four corners region. There are a
couple of weak waves that move into the area Friday night. Have kept
PoPs again for the area, but will have to see how far north the
waves get. The area with a better chance will be north central
Kansas. This period gets a little interesting due to colder
temperatures which could bring some mix of rain or snow to mainly
the Nebraska portion of the forecast area. The far west could even
see a change to all snow.

On Saturday, the upper low moves into the southern plains. The
proximity of the low will keep chances for showers going during the
day. As the temperatures warm, rain showers will be the main
precipitation type. By Saturday night and Sunday, the low turns
toward the northeast through Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. This track
is good to get some decent precipitation for the forecast area. Once
again, the temperatures are cold enough that much of the area will
have a mix of rain and snow and the west/northwest could have all
snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Accumulation is really
hard at this time of year. The warm ground and warm temperatures
help to keep it melting as it falls.

Finally, Sunday night, the low moves to the northeast and the
precipitation should gradually come to an end. Late Sunday night, as
the precipitation is coming to an end, there could also be a mix of
rain and snow.

Monday through Wednesday there is northwest flow. There are a few
waves that move through. Timing is always a challenge when there are
several waves that are mainly weak. Have kept Monday and Monday
night mainly dry, but by Tuesday into Wednesday the waves become a
little stronger and have a better chance. The temperatures will
finally warm a little during this period and be closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 750 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF forecast period.
The wind will quickly become light and variable this evening and
then will pick up some out of the east later in the day on
Thursday. VFR Clouds will increase through the day on Thursday
with Rain showers possibly beginning to move into the area from
the southwest by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     NEZ060>064-072>077-082>087.

     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     NEZ039>041-046>049.

KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Thursday for
     KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely



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