Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 222033
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
233 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

OUR MILD DAY TODAY WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
UNDERGOES CHANGES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY ZONAL REGIME TODAY
HAS RESULTED IN GOOD WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  TEMPS HAVE SURPASSED EXPECTATIONS AS STRATUS
ERODED AND READINGS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.  THE AREA
OF STRATUS AND ABUNDANT LLVL MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ON THE
ORDER OF 150 PCNT OF NORMAL...RESIDED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTN.

AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE WESTERN JET NOSES SE FM THE PACIFIC NW THRU THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION...CARVING A TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE
LLVL MOISTURE/STRATUS MIGRATES TO THE NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT.  HOW FAR WEST THE LOW CLOUDS GET WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF AN UPSTREAM SFC COLD FRONT WHICH ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY MORNING...AREAS
OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN THE STRATUS AREA AND
A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HAVE WENT WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS BELOW ONE MILE FOR NOW AND THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. LIFT OVER THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLVL JET MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS IN THIS AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO
WORRIES ABOUT FREEZING PCPN TONIGHT.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE ACTIVE FOR THE SUNDAY DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN TO DEVELOP AND CROSS
THE PLAINS.  PRETTY MUCH ALL MODELS POINT TO HIGH CHANCES FOR A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO UNFOLD ON SUNDAY.  HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY....BUT COULD SEE POPS BEING RAISED FURTHER IF
TRENDS CONTINUE.  THE MAJORITY OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS
RAIN BUT WITH CAA IN THE AFTN...WE ARE LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF AROUND MID DAY OR VERY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS TEMPS COOL WE COULD SEE A FEW AREAS MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO
SNOW...WITH THE BETTER CHCS FOR THIS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN COUNTIES. ONCE THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE
EAST BY EVENING...PCPN WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST.
ALSO...PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AVERAGE 1 TO 3 MB AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE
AFTN HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL BE NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AT 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS...SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO ALTHOUGH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL LIKELY BE NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE NOTED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AXIS MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE EC...THAT A
THERMALLY-INDIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A
~125KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE JUST ENOUGH OMEGA
FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER OR NEAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE THEN
SOME INDICATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS...THAT A
THERMALLY-DIRECT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A
~90KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET STREAK COULD PROMOTE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION NEAR OR JUST NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THAT SAID...TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT LACKING LATER THIS WEEK...PER PROXIMITY SOUNDING DATA FROM
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...AND GIVEN THE DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC...OPTED TO LEAVE THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE
MOST PART ON MONDAY...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF A SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD THEN ALLOW
ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA...THUS ALLOWING
FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 30 AND 40S TO FINISH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE TEENS AND 20S DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

DRY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THRU THE EVENING...THEN THE
FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING THEREAFTER. LATE IN THE EVENING
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AND THE STRATUS MAY MIGRATE TOWARD/INTO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IF STRATUS CAN MAKE IT...CANNOT RULE OUT IFR OR LIFR
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN AROUND 12Z WITH WINDS SHIFTING NW AND
INCREASING WITH FROPA. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A FRONTOGENETIC
BAND OF PCPN DEVELOPING AND INCLUDED A R/S MIX.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FAY


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