Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 200526
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE BRINGING IN WARMER AIR TO THE AREA...WHILE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TROUGH THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE STILL MILD.

MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR BRINGING THE WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT THEN A SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY. ALL THIS BRINGS LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) AND HIGHS NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL (IN THE 70S).

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

ASIDE FROM A 24 PERIOD DURING WHICH SCATTERED RAINS WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
DRY.

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
RIDGING EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SWINGS
RIGHT BACK INTO PLACE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IS THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...ROUGHLY CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY
BEEN ONTO THIS FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...DATING BACK TO THE MIDDLE
OF LAST WEEK. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN TIMING...ALTHOUGH
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS...WITH SOME SIGNS
OF SPLIT TYPE ENERGY...BUT ECMWF DIGGING AN UPPER LEVEL JUST TO OUR
EAST. THE ECMWF IS MOST GENEROUS ON QPF AS WELL...IN THE 0.50-1.00
INCH RANGE...WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE ABOUT 1/3 LESS GENERALLY
SPEAKING. PERCEPTIBLE WATER IS HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND ITS
A "WARM" PACIFIC TYPE SYSTEM. STRONG H250 JET PUNCH INTO INTO WEST
TEXAS WILL AID THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF THE SYSTEM. HAVE
LITTLE QUALM WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WITH GENEROUS MIDWEEK
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60%+ RANGE. WE WILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TOO WITH SMALL CAPE VALUES AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
WOULD ANTICIPATE AN OVERALL AVERAGE OF 0.40" OF RAIN...BUT AMOUNTS
COULD RANGE UP TO 1" IN A FEW SPOTS GIVE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL CLEAR THE AREA REASONABLY
QUICKLY...WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE CLEARING TAKES HOLD.

AS MENTIONED...THE SYSTEM IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO NO SUBSTANTIAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...MOST OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S SO WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY...NOR NEXT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...MORITZ
AVIATION...GUERRERO



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