Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 172151

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
451 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

We currently have a cluster of thunderstorms across western portions
of the forecast area this afternoon. This activity is associated
with a closed upper level low that is merging into the upper level
flow as an embedded shortwave that will slowly track east across the
area this evening through tonight. As it does so we look to stand a
decent chance of seeing precipitation across much of the area.

With weak shear in place the severe potential overall is somewhat
lacking. However, one storm has produced a wind gust to 50 mph in
Dawson county earlier this afternoon. The potential is there for
isolated strong winds to be brought down to the surface with the
precipitation. As the low level jet ramps up tonight thunderstorms
will likely linger into the overnight hours. With storms also
expected to move rather slowly, locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding will be possible.

Looking ahead to tomorrow afternoon, as the upper wave tracks off
to the east thunderstorm development along the cold front is
possible as it enters northern Nebraska. The best chances for
severe weather remains off to the north and east, but there is the
potential for this activity to persist into our northeastern
zones through the evening.

The other headline for tomorrow is the addition of a heat advisory
that is now in effect for Tuesday afternoon and evening. Heat
indices could reach into the 100s across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The stretch of hot weather continues Wednesday through Friday with
heat indices of 100 to 108 possible. Decided to hold off on the
issuance of an excessive heat warning due to uncertainties of
whether we will meet advisory criteria on Friday. Felt that a heat
watch would be sufficient for now and can be upgraded during
later shifts if confidence increases in us having a 4-day stretch
heat advisory criteria.

The upper level ridge remains dominant across the plains through the
extended but it gradually start to shift back to the southwest by
Friday allowing mostly northwesterly flow to return. As it does
so, multiple shortwaves look to track across the area brining
scattered slight chances precip Friday evening through the end of
the extended.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
primary concern is the potential for scattered thunderstorm
development this afternoon through tonight. Have maintained a
VCTS mention beginning at 21Z and expanding in coverage to the
east. Due to the potentially isolated nature of any convection
that does develop, have held off on introducing a TSRA mention
until something appears more likely to directly impact the TAF
site. Any locally heavy rainfall could reduce visibilities and
ceilings to MVFR or lower temporarily.

Winds this afternoon and evening will mainly be out of the south
and could gust up to 20-25kts at times.

Some marginal low level wind shear is also possible overnight with
a strong low level jet in place. Currently only have this included
for KEAR, but will need to be monitored if it looks like this may
need to be expanded eastward to include KGRI.


NE...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for NEZ039>041-

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005>007-

     Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
     evening for KSZ005>007-017>019.



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