Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211918
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
218 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Band of rain stretching from western Nebraska through central
Kansas will slowly drift northward late this afternoon and this
evening, although will be inhibited by a strong east-northeasterly
wind. Therefore, I expect that most of, if not all of, our
Nebraska counties will stay dry.

Cloud cover will decrease tomorrow morning as high pressure
builds into the area. If clouds can clear early enough, northern
parts of the area could drop into the mid 30s and could see
patchy frost develop. With the expectation that clouds will still
be in place for most of the area, I decided that a frost headline
won`t be necessary for tonight.

High pressure will lead to clear and quiet conditions tomorrow
with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Clear skies and light winds means that we will likely see lows
fall into the 30s again on Sunday morning. If it trends any
colder, these areas will have another chance at frost.

Sunday will be pleasant with highs near 70, but we will also have
breezy south winds ahead of a weak system that will move through
on Monday. The one concern for Sunday will be fire weather.
Relative humidity values are expected to to drop into the low to
mid 20s for western parts of the area along with wind gusts of 30
to 35 MPH possible.

On Monday, the aforementioned system will push a weak cold front
through Nebraska during the day. There is an outside chance at an
isolated shower as this passes through, but the likelihood is too
low to include in the forecast at this point.

A bit deeper trough will dig through the central U.S. Tuesday
into Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the area.

A better chance for rain and thunderstorms appears to arrive on
Thursday as an even stronger trough pushes into the area. That
said, there are considerable model differences at this point.
The ECMWF and GFS both have a good band of QPF across our area,
but the ECMWF is a bit further south with the entire system.
Hopefully this isn`t a trend that continues and we can get some
meaningful precipitation for south central Nebraska.

Beyond that, it appears that we will remain in a more active
pattern with several chances for rain and storms through at least
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

High level clouds will continue to stream in from the south this
afternoon, but precipitation is expected to stay south of the
terminals thanks to the strong east-northeasterly wind. A few
breaks have developed in the high clouds and we have seen a
broken deck of stratocumulus clouds develop in the 3-4 kft range.
Expect that these will gradually dissipate late this afternoon
and evening. Winds decrease to less than 10 kts after sunset.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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