Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
322 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

A cold front raced across the local area this morning and has
since stalled from eastern Nebraska into portions of central
Kansas. Strong cold air advection behind this front has resulted
in many locations holding in the mid 60s this afternoon...with a
few 70s across portions of north central Kansas where there has
been a bit more sunshine and the full effects of this new airmass
are still filtering in. Expect this cooler airmass to linger
across the region through at least tomorrow...with below normal
temperatures expected through the short term periods.
Additionally...there will be some chance for thunderstorm
development near the aforementioned boundary late this afternoon
and evening...although most of this activity is now forecast to be
east of the local area. As a result...trimmed the chances for
precip during the late afternoon through evening hours...limiting
them primarily to the eastern fringes of the local area and closer
to the cold front. If storms are able to develop across this
area...cannot rule out a strong storm or two.

As the surface ridge settles in from the north overnight...expect
clearing skies and light winds to encroach on the local area.
While this is not an ideal radiational cooling set up...did trend
towards the cooler side of guidance as clouds and any showers from
the high plains are not expect to impact much of the local area
until close to dawn. While there is a bit of discrepancy among the
models with shower and thunderstorm coverage towards early morning
and through the daytime hours Sunday...think there will be more
clouds than showers across the local area...with the better chance
for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity coming with
an upper level disturbance Sunday night and Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across much of
the local area Sunday evening through Monday as a the upper level
wave across northern California works its way east and into the
plains. Forcing from this wave should bring a fairly decent chance
for precipitation to most areas beginning Sunday evening...with
chances continuing across the local area through at least the
first half of Monday.

Thereafter...upper level ridging ahead of the next upper level low
is anticipated across the local area Tuesday...and per
coordination with the surrounding offices...upped maximum
temperatures and winds for Tuesday afternoon. This combination led
to an increased concern for potential fire danger on
Tuesday...and opted to mention this potential in the afternoon HWO
across north central Kansas where available fuels are very dry.
While temperatures will briefly cool to near normal again on
Wednesday behind a passing wave...expect them to rebound back
above normal to end the work week. In addition...thunderstorm
chances will increase again across the local area Thursday
night...and linger into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Both terminals are near the edge of MVFR stratus this afternoon.
While clearing is only miles to the west...continued cloud
development across the same area should result in MVFR conditions
persisting for the next several hours. There is some question in
how much MVFR stratus to the west will also encroach on the
terminals this evening...but as the surface high moves in an winds
diminish this evening...model guidance is indicating mostly clear
skies will likely evolve. So...expect MVFR conditions through the
late afternoon or early evening hours before VFR CIGS and light
winds settle in overnight.




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