Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 271727
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

TEMPS ARE STRUGGLING TO CLIMB WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER. SO
TODAY`S HIGHS WERE TRIMMED SVRL DEGS.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AFTER RE-EVALUATING THE SITUATION...HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE PRECIP DOWN BELOW 15%. RADAR SHOWS VERY SPOTTY RETURNS
...MOST OF WHICH IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. SO ALL MENTION OF
PRECIP THRU TONIGHT HAS BEEN DOWNSCALED TO FLURRIES AND/OR
SPRINKLES.

AS OF 1117 AM...WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE FLURRIES HERE AT THE OFFICE.

WHILE A BRIEF BURST OF LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE...THE
ODDS ARE JUST TOO LOW AND IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHERE IT
MIGHT HAPPEN. SO HAVE DOWN-PLAYED THE MENTION UNTIL WE SEE INFO TO
THE CONTRARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS SERVES AS A FIRST DRAFT FOR THIS SHIFT...

ALOFT: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WRN USA RIDGE/ERN USA TROF WAS IN PLACE
WITH NNW OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS CONFIGURATION WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND DEAMPIFY THRU TOMORROW AS A SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE
PAC NW MOVES ONSHORE AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. BY LATE SAT A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD.

SURFACE: HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE FROM THE MS VALLEY AND SETTLE OVER
THE ERN USA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
S DOWN TO THE CO-KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS
TO THE E. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT PAC COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND THRU THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN W. MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE LEE-SIDE TROF.

A WEAK LOW WAS MOVING SSE DOWN THE FRONT AND WAS PRODUCING WAA
CLOUDS AND LOW POTENTIAL SOME FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. ONCE THIS LOW
SLIDES BY THIS EVE...THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL END AND CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE W.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS LIE WITH LATE WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES/FIRE WEATHER...THEN MID WEEK PRECIP CHANCES.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SHOWING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND AS THE CWA SITS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SET UP
BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A WIDE
RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. STARTING THE DAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS...A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS AND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY WINDS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
SHOW WARMER TEMPS ALOFT STARTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE EAST TO MID 70S IN THE FAR
WEST.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST AS WE GET INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO PUSH SE SAT NIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE SUN HAS EMERGED
ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH MODELS SHOWING IT SLIDING THROUGH OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY. HAD INHERITED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES...BUT DECIDED
TO INSERT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NRN/ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH SPRINKLES REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. THE
ECMWF REMAINS ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH QPF VALUES...WITH
OTHERS SHOWING LITTLE/NOTHING...SO MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS A
CONCERN. THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO USHER IN A SFC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING A SWITCH TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND A DRIER AIR MASS DURING THE DAY. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WERE KEPT
DRY...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARISE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70...WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING WELL
INTO THE 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE RESULTING RH VALUES RANGE
FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S...AND WITH THE GUSTY NW WINDS
EXPECTED...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE. THE FORECAST FOR MON/TUE REMAINS DRY...WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SET UP ON MON IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAYS
DISTURBANCE...WHICH BECOMES MORE ZONAL ON TUES AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES. EXPECTING A WARM UP IN TEMPS
MON/TUES...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING INCREASING TEMPS
ALOFT...AND GENERALLY S TO SWRLY WINDS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE
FORECAST GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...RETURNS
TO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SRN CANADA MOVES THROUGH THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT WITH
MODELS...INCLUDING THE OVERALL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT. AT THIS POINT...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCES WOULD COME DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SO DO HAVE THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. HIGHS FOR WED
ARE FORECAST TO FALL BACK INTO THE 60S.

THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
FORECAST IN HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR OVC WITH CIGS DECREASING TO 4-5K FT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY. THERE IS A BAND OF MVFR CIGS
OFF TO THE W FROM ONL-BBW-LBF-MCK-HLC. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
IT WILL ERODE AS IT DRIFTS E...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY IT
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z. LIGHT S WINDS WILL
BECOME SW AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: MULTI-LAYERED CIGS LIFT WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AROUND 8K
FT. LIGHT S WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AFTER 06Z. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR. CLEARING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
FROM THE ESE UNDER 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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