Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240308
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1008 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Thunderstorms have moved out and we expect dry weather will
prevail through the rest of the night based on a vast majority of
the forecast models. Also reduced thunderstorm chances for
Wednesday primarily along and north of I-80. Most forecast models
have the thunderstorms focusing closer to the front across our
southern forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

We have a small window late this afternoon into the evening where
we stand the slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. Taking a look
at the cumulus field currently, it will take another couple of
hours before we have much of a chance of thunderstorm development,
as vertical extend is limited. Latest meso-analysis indicates that
we have plenty of CAPE in our eastern CWA (more than 4000 J/kg)
and loss of, or in the process of losing convective inhibition.
Wind shear is weak, however. The time window is limited as we will
enter a region of subsidence in between two waves, as the cumulus
field we currently have is associated with the departing first
wave within southwest flow.

By overnight, short-wave ridging aloft should preclude
precipitation, despite a cold front that will be cutting through
the CWA. This front will give us quite a range of dewpoints by
early Wednesday morning, with near 50 expected in our northwest to
mid 60s in our southeast, ahead of the cold front. The next
shortwave trough will arrive Sunday, and with generous MUCAPE, I
expect a good chance of precipitation to occur north of the front
as it stalls somewhere near the state line. By afternoon, we
should have sufficient instability and shear to be aware of severe
potential as well. Any severe weather would mainly be in the
afternoon and evening. The location of severe weather will be
highly dependent on where, when, and if the front stalls. We also
have the potential for some heavy rain with some cells. Expect
slightly cooler than normal temperatures north of the front as sky
cover along with airmass change will make it seem a bit more like
fall.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

More chances of rain are on the way as we receive multiple waves
of energy are still expected. A slow warming trend will occur as
temperatures eventually rebound to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Besides a brief period of thunderstorms close to the terminal
which may bring cloud bases below 10,000 ft, expect VFR conditions
at the terminals throughout the valid TAF period. The
thunderstorms and the lower cloud bases should not bring
conditions to MVFR, but it may be close. Otherwise, the wind will
shift to from the north with relatively light speeds overnight.
Wind speeds pick back up from the north late tomorrow
morning/afternoon to around 12 knots. Tomorrow afternoon there
will be a chance for thunderstorms which will bring conditions to
MVFR, if not worse. Since this is still far out, will not mention
this in the current TAF. Look for subsequent TAFs to address these
thunderstorms chances to finer detail.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Guerrero



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