Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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416
FXUS63 KGID 040539
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1139 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TOMORROW.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS HAS PASSED EAST OF OUR AREA AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NOW DOMINATING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
TOMORROW WITH INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL
BE A LIGHT WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND THAT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST WARM UP BACK TO JUST SHY OF THE FREEZING
MARK IN SNOW COVERED AREAS. MITCHELL COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
ABOVE FREEZING GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW IN THAT AREA.

THE WIND WILL FURTHER DIE DOWN TONIGHT AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL WAVES FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES TO SPREAD A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND TRANSITIONING EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE EVENTUALLY SATURATES TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS EVENT...FORCING FROM THE WAVE IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND
CANNOT IMAGING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW...AND
POSSIBLE FLURRIES AT BEST...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SCALE
CHANGES. ANOTHER QUESTION WILL BE PRECIP TYPE...BUT LOOKING AT
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES AND EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...OPTED TO LOWER SURFACE TEMPS AND KEEP
PRECIP TYPE AS ALL SNOW.

BEYOND FRIDAY...EXPECT A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO PASS
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE...HELPING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY YET ANOTHER QUICK PASSING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE ON SUNDAY SLIDING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE
BRUNT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FOCUSED WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
AREA...EXPECT TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS RETURN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND...AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY.

WHILE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING AIRMASS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A
QUIET/DRY START TO NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH LITTLE OVERALL IN THE WAY OF SKY COVER
THROUGH THE DAY. SFC PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP WINDS W/NWRLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS TOPPING OUT THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP



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