Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 010830
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALOFT: BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS THRU TONIGHT. A PV STREAMER EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY WSW
THRU THE DAKOTAS TO SRN CA. THERE WERE A COUPLE EMBEDDED VERY WEAK
PV ANOMALIES...BUT IT`S ARGUABLE IF THEY WILL HAVE ANY INFLUENCE
ON SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. ONE IS FCST TO MOVE THRU EARLY THIS EVE AND
THE OTHER TOWARD DAWN WED.

SURFACE: THE TAIL END OF A WEAK PAC COOL FRONT BISECTED CNTRL NEB
INTO NW KS. FRONTOLYSIS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH THE FCST AREA
BASICALLY REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE
ERN USA AND THE LEE TROF JUST TO THE W.

NOW: A NARROW BAND OF HIGH-BASED SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS
BEEN ON-GOING THRU THE NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.

TODAY: GIVEN MINIMAL SYNOPTIC FORCING...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THIS SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY. CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE THIS MORNING LEAVING PLENTY OF
MULTI- LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
MORE THAN ENOUGH BREAKS/THIN SPOTS FOR TEMPS TO WARM CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS ARE LARGELY CONTINUITY WITH THE PRVS FCST...BUT
DID LOWER A COUPLE DEGS S OF HWY 6.

BREEZY S WINDS WILL GUST 20-25 KTS.

AS FAR AS RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH. JUST NOT
ENOUGH FORCING.

TONIGHT: P-M/CLOUDY AND MILD. BREEZY AT TIMES. LOWS CLOSE TO 10F
ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...A FEW TSTMS WILL PROBABLY
ERUPT WELL W OF THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO FORM A COLD POOL AND MAKE IT E INTO THE FCST
AREA. A 40 KT LOW-LVL JET IS FCST TO REDEVELOP. MODEL QPF
CLUSTERING AND THE 12 HR QPF PROBABILITIES FROM THE 03Z SREF MEAN
SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE OVER
ERN NEB AT THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE WRN EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA.

FOR WHAT LITTLE TSTM ACTIVITY MIGHT DEVELOP THRU TONIGHT...AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ATTM.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OVERVIEW...AFTER NUMEROUS DRY DAYS...PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL FINALLY START TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THOSE CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LOW. AT
THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ABOVE 20 TO 30
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND LABOR
DAY IF RATHER LOW. LABOR DAY COULD BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IF THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING OR IT
COULD BE YET ONE MORE HOT DAY IF THE FRONT IS SLOW IN GETTING
HERE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID TO
LATE WEEK THAT WILL EVER SO SLOWLY EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL ALSO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY
...WE CAN EXPECT CONTINUED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEPING OUR
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ONLY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEPEND ON WEAK SUBTLE LITTLE
DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THROUGH THE PLAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM. SOME FORECAST MODELS
INDICATE PERIODS OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AND OTHERS DO NOT.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THESE SUBTLE LITTLE WAVES MORE THAN A DAY OR
TWO OUT IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. OVERALL...MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD MOST IN
QUESTION AS A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SWING THROUGH ONCE THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE ENTERS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT TOO FAR
OUT TO NAIL DOWN AREAS THAT WILL BE MOST FAVORED DUE TO TIMING
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED THINGS
DOWN AND THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT EVEN COME THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT IN SOME AREAS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING
POTENTIALLY ONE LAST WARM/HOT DAY BEFORE THE COOLER WEATHER MOVES
IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUE NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MOVING IN AT OR ABOVE 12K
FT. LIGHT S-SE WINDS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED SCT TO OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS INCREASE AND GUST 20-25 KTS AFTER 17Z. THERE
IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF SHWR/TSTM.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TUE EVE: VFR. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12K FT. S WINDS DIMINISH
AND BECOME SE AROUND 10 KTS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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