Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230846
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
346 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The primary forecast concern today will center around the chance
for some weak isolated showers this morning. There is very limited
instability with MUCAPE values across Nebraska generally less
than 200 J/kg. So can not rule out a few claps of thunder with
passing showers since there is some instability, but given so
little instability will just call for general showers rather than
thunderstorms for this morning. Radar has been showing a few weak
showers or even just sprinkles at times early this morning. Recent
runs of the HRRR model indicate that we will see these isolated
showers continue to be hit and miss across the forecast area
through around noon with then clearing skies this afternoon.

Overall today will be an outstanding late June day with lower
dewpoint air working into the region through the day helping to
really cut down on our recent humidity. Temperatures will also be
much cooler and very pleasant with highs only in the mid 70s for
most areas with a nice north breeze.

Tonight...Clear skies and decreasing wind will really allow things
to cool down as a cool sfc high slides in from the northwest.
Some of our northwest zones will likely see overnight lows in the
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Models are in good agreement at the start of the long term period
Saturday morning, showing upper level northwesterly flow in place
across the Plains, set up between troughing extending south from the
Hudson Bay area through the Midwest and a ridge axis over the Desert
SW/west coast. Another quick moving, smaller area of low pressure
looks to start the day off over eastern ND. Winds are expected to
start out on the lighter side, thanks to sfc high pressure building
in from the northwest. Overall, it is going to be a very nice day
for this far into June. Most locations will be dry, but the forecast
continue to carry a small PoP across WSW portions of the CWA, where
a few showers will be possible. Models show the potential as a
pretty subtle wave moves through the area, but are pretty light with
QPF and not widespread, some models have no precip. Winds will
remain northwesterly for most locations through the day, with speeds
topping out around 10-15 MPH. Though the coolest part of the airmass
across the area today will be shifting east with time, still looking
at below normal highs in the mid 70s to near 80. Combined with
dewpoints in the 30s/40s, a great day.

Pleasant temps/dewpoints are expected to continue on into Sunday,
but there is a little more uncertainty with the precipitation
forecast. Really no notable change in the overall upper level flow,
remaining northwesterly, but models differ whether there is enough
forcing with another subtle disturbance to develop precip during the
afternoon hours. Not all models have precip, and keep Sunday dry.
PoPs remain low. Winds are expected to be again be light, this time
across the entire area, as the surface ridge axis settles in.
Dewpoints start climbing, but still remain in the 40s for most, and
high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid 70s.

As we get into the work week, models showing the upper level ridging
to our west breaking down as a low pressure system moves into
western Canada, bringing more zonal flow to the region. This pattern
will allow for the potential for additional shortwave disturbances
to slide east through the region, bringing along precipitation
chances. Have PoPs each day, but not saying it`s a week-long rain
out. Some timing issues to iron out in the models in the coming
days. Expecting gradually warming temperatures, with highs by Wed
back up near 90. Unlike Sat/Sun when showers are in the forecast,
moisture/instability will also be making a return, along with the
thunder mention, but it`s too early to pin down any specifics with
severe weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The HRRR model does show some potential of a light shower or a few
sprinkles in and around the TAF sites during the first half of the
day on Friday. This is currently only a slight chance and any
precipitation would likely be isolated with only minor amounts.
Therefore, will continue to keep the TAFs dry for now. Clouds will
primarily be mid to high clouds and thus VFR conditions will
persist throughout the period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...Wesely



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