Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
330 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Lowered snowfall amounts most areas given the current lull in the
snowfall and may very well need to lower amounts a bit more.

The first major snowband clipped our northwestern zones last
evening into the overnight hours from Ord to Cozad, but mainly
impacted areas northwest of our forecast area. However, forecast
models remain in good agreement that a second heavy snow band will
begin to set up as we near dawn and especially between 6 am and
noon. However, there is some disagreement on where exactly this
band will set up with the heaviest snow. The band will be oriented
from northeast to southwest and the model agreement is that the
northern portion of the band will see the heaviest snow, primarily
along and north of I-80.

The 06Z NAM and the 08Z HRRR place the heaviest snow band from
around Hastings and Grand Island westward, while the NAM then
tries to develop yet another band from York to near Lincoln later
on. The 00Z NMM WRF and ARW WRF have consistently heavy snow for
most places along and north of Hwy 6 with the heaviest though east
of Hastings and Grand Island. In other words the fine details on
the placement of the heaviest snow bands remains challenging given
model disagreement.

I do believe that we will see a heavy snow band set up near the
Tri-Cities or just a little west of the Tri-Cities early this
morning and then slide east as it weakens. Overall this band
probably will not last long enough for most places to get any more
than 5 to 8 inches maybe a few stray 9 inch amounts, this is
lower than indicated by many models, but my faith in these models
is lacking a little right now. Some areas within the current
blizzard warning may very well get largely missed by the snow (The
wind will be there) and may only see 1 to 2 inches, these areas
are probably the southeastern most extent of the current blizzard
warning. Will let the blizzard warning stand for now as any snow
with these 50 mph wind gusts will be a problem.

Expect numerous forecast updates this morning as this system
unfolds and once the snow band actually forms, which should give
us a better idea on the fine details of how the brunt of this
system will play out. We`ve already seen some wind gusts to over
50 mph and these will become more common as we head through the
morning hours. Areas within the eventual snow band will likely
experience blizzard conditions due to these winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The extended portion of the forecast remains fairly quiet. A weak,
moisture-starved upper level wave will move through the region on
Tuesday night, but it appears any precipitation will be minimal and
will stay well outside of the forecast area. After that, the
question becomes how warm we get by mid to late week as midlevel
ridging dominates the forecast. Right now, Thursday appears to be
the warmest day with highs in the 40s across Nebraska and 50s in
Kansas. Depending on how much remaining snow cover there is, I could
see this being even warmer.

Another system and cold front will push through the area Friday.
Again, it appears that our area will stay precipitation-free, as
moisture remains east of the area across eastern Kansas and
Missouri. This system will cool us down a bit over the weekend
(highs in the 30s), but it appears we will warm up again as we head
into the following week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The first snow band has tracked northwest of KEAR and KGRI thus
sparing them from any snow so far. However, a second snow band is
expected to form in the few hours leading up to dawn and expand in
coverage through mid morning. This snow band is expected to bring
blizzard conditions to the area. Overall snowfall amounts have
been lowered some, but with 50 mph wind gusts this morning
significant blowing and drifting snow is still expected.


NE...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ039>041-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ087.

KS...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ005-006-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ007-



LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.