447
FXUS63 KGID 100514
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1214 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of thunderstorms is expected to move from northwest to
  southeast across the area this evening and tonight. These
  storms may produce 60 to 70 MPH winds and localized large
  hail. The primary timeframe for severe weather is 8pm to 1am.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Thursday
  afternoon and evening, and some of these storms may also
  produce large hail and damaging wind.

- The overall severe risk decreases on Friday, but there is
  still a chance that a few strong to marginally severe storms
  may develop.

- After a mostly dry weekend, chances for thunderstorms
  return Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for several counties
in south central Nebraska through 1AM. A line of severe
thunderstorms are currently moving to the southeast. These
storms will have the potential of producing damaging winds and
some hail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The spotty convection from this morning has shifted to our east
and skies are mostly clear across the forecast area. Attention
then shifts to the the Nebraska panhandle where storms are
beginning to develop in response to an approaching shortwave.
Instability is plentiful ahead of the storms (MLCAPE values of
2000-2500 J/kg across the Sandhills), so the storms should
continue to intensify as they push east-southeastward. Deep
layer shear on the order of 30-40kts, with vectors oriented from
NW to SE should allow storms to organize to one or more
convective lines propagating southeastward with time. There is
still some disagreement amongst the CAMs about how long-lived
this complex will be, but the HRRR and RRFS have consistently
been showing these storms moving into our area by around 8pm and
moving across most of the forecast area before dissipating.
Given the convective mode, wind is the primary threat, although
some stronger updrafts could support severe hail as well. The
threat for QLCS tornadoes is low thanks to limited low-level
instability. Overall, storms should be progressive enough to
avoid any significant hydro concerns. The HRRR does show a few
storms redeveloping in the LLJ behind the main line of storms
early Thursday morning, but even then QPF values are only around
1.00" on an isolated basis.

Some thunderstorms could linger into the morning on Thursday,
providing some uncertainty to the convective forecast for the
rest of the day. The current expectation is that we should see
enough clearing to push temperatures in the 90s and low 100s
across most of the area, providing instability for thunderstorms
to develop in the late afternoon and early evening as the
shortwave continues into the area. Coverage will be scattered,
with a "messier" convective mode than tonight. Again, hail and
wind are the primary threats, with a relatively uniform
"Slight" risk for severe storms across the entire area.

A cold front then moves into the area for Friday. The primary
focus given the frontal timing may be to our southeast, but
there is at least some risk for strong to marginally severe
storms across the entire area, especially if storms can initiate
earlier in the afternoon hours.

Saturday will be cooler and mostly dry in the post-frontal
airmass. High temperatures may only reach the upper 70s in some
spots, and there is only a low end chance for isolated
showers/storms in southern parts of the area Saturday night.
Sunday and Monday are expected to stay dry, with gradually
warming temperatures as ridging moves into the central CONUS.
Details for Tuesday onward are less certain, but global models
show another trough moving into the NW CONUS, providing off and
on chances for thunderstorms through the middle part of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Current thunderstorms will move off to the east over the next
couple hours, with low confidence for a few lingering showers
and storms through sunrise. This will be followed by a break
before thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening. Winds away
from any thunderstorms remain around 10 kts from the south to
southeast. This will result in a period of marginal LLWS through
sunrise, given a southwesterly LLJ around 40 kts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wekesser
DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...TOP