Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KGID 261746
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME STRATUS SPREADING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS A SINGLE CELL IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

STILL A LOT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING CONSIDERING
THAT THE MAIN EVENT IS LESS THAN 24 HOURS OUT. NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS HAVE THERE BEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE DETAILS ARE THE PART THAT
CREATE THE CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE FIRST WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THE LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL TO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND THERE IS A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THE CURRENT CONVECTION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF
WARM MOIST ADVECTION. THE INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME FOG AND MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE TO THE AREA. THE
MAIN AREA WOULD BE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW HAVE SOME
AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG.

WITH THE START OF THE CONVECTION ALREADY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THERE IS ALREADY SIGNIFICANT CAPE AND SHEAR AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING WOULD LIKELY BE SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DECREASING
AROUND SUNRISE AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST.

ONE OF THE MAIN VARIABLES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT IS THE LOCATION OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS PUSH THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. HAVE
KEPT WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH THEORY SINCE THERE COULD BE STRATUS
AROUND THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON THAT WOULD SLOW THE
FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE DAY.

THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL THERE BE MID
MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON. THE NAM...GFS...ECMWF AND A FEW OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE HRRR AND SOME OF THE
OTHER SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE A DRY OR NEARLY DRY PERIOD FOR MID DAY.
HAVE KEPT THE POPS DURING THE DAY...BUT HAVE A FEW CONCERNS HOW MUCH
THERE WILL BE.

WHEN WILL CONVECTION GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON? MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE CONVECTION STARTING SOMETIME AROUND 21 TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
BRINGING IN A DRY SLOT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TO SEE JUST WHERE AND HOW FAR IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

IT IS NO QUESTION THAT THE MAIN CONCERNS LIE WITHIN THE SHORT-
TERM...BUT THE MID AND EXTENDED ARE STILL ACTIVE AND INTERESTING
IN THEIR OWN RIGHT.

MID-TERM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY):
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THIS PERIOD IS THE EXIT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT US TODAY. ONCE THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IT
BECOMES RELATIVELY STAGNANT AND SLOW MOVING. THIS CAUSED THE
MULTIPLE PV ANOMALIES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO CAUSE
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THINK THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THE
QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD WITH THE GFS AND EC MORE
PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE NAM ROTATES THE ENERGY BACK NORTHWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS THINK PRECIPITATION WILL WANE LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THAT THE ARE WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...BUT THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.

LONG-TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY):
THIS PERIOD IS LIKELY TO BE WET AT LEAST OFF AND ON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD SLOWLY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
FAIRLY HIGH. WATER COULD BE COME A CONCERN. WATCH THIS PERIOD AS
IT NEARS.

THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST WAS FOCUSED ON THE SHORT AND MID-TERM
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE LONG-TERM FORECAST IS ABBREVIATED
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO THICKEN AND LOWER ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...TO RESULT
IN CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE A BIT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND THE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF
WHICH WILL BE SEVERE...TO INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE SURFACE LOW
FOLLOWS SUIT AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECTED CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. OVERALL...THE BEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPORARY LIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN +TSRAS AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW
WHEN PREVAILING CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 500FT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...ROSSI



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.