000
FXUS63 KGID 061124
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
524 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FRIGID TEMPS REMAIN THE STORY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS.  THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REINFORCED AS A 1040MB SFC RIDGE BUILDS ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY.  H85 TEMPS DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
IN THIS TIME FRAME AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A RATHER FRIGID NIGHT TONIGHT
AND A CONTINUATION OF THE COLD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80...AND ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DROP TO AROUND 10 MPH
OR LESS...IT IS STILL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL
READINGS OF 20 BELOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND
WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA.

ALSO TONIGHT...THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM
AND CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRIES FORECAST ACROSS NC KANSAS.
MODELS ARE HIT OR MISS FOR PCPN IN OUR SOUTH TONIGHT WITH THE 4KM
SPC WRF MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL...AND WILL MAINTAIN IN
FORECAST.

SIMILAR TO TODAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
AVERAGING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...BRRR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE CHANCE FOR SNOW MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD
ACROSS THE AREA. ON SATURDAY THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. AS
THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST A
LITTLE BIT WARMER.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL START TO APPROACH THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN MORE CLOUDS TO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW MOVING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES. THE NAM MOVES
THE SNOW OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE ECMWF AND
GFS KEEP THE SNOW INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE KEPT THE SNOW INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
DURING THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA.

ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA AND CONTINUE COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY. FINALLY
ON TUESDAY THE COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY MOVE TO THE EAST AND MODERATE
SOME. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND BUT
EVEN BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...BUT WILL BE WARMER THAN THE WEEK IN BETWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
ONLY CLOUDS EXPECTED WILL BE A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PRIMARILY
THIS MORNING AND THEN MAYBE AGAIN NEAR DAWN ON SATURDAY. A LIGHT
NORTH WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A RIDGE AXIS
WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFT THE WIND TO SOUTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>048-060>062.

KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY