Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 280852
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
352 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO MN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW/MID CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS...AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AFFECTING AREAS CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE
CWA IS SITTING WITH A WEAKER PATTERN...WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN
FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS WESTERLY...AND GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH
RANGE. TEMPS ARE NOTABLY COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO...WITH 3 AM TEMPS
RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN THE WEST TO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN THE
SOUTH.

LOOKING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE IN REGARD TO THE FORECAST BEING DRY. MODELS REMAIN IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE REGION COMING UNDER INCREASINGLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATEST SYSTEM...WITH NO
DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. AT THE
SURFACE...MAIN INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THAT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE CWA. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH SLIDING EAST THROUGH ONTO THE
PLAINS...ACTUALLY ENDING UP CENTERED OVER THE CWA AT SOME POINT BY
LATE THIS EVENING. IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE A LOT OF EASTWARD
PROGRESS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MAY STILL BE
CENTERED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...MAINLY DURING
THE EARLY/MID AFTN HOURS...FOR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE AND
BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MIXING POTENTIAL
UP TO AROUND 750-800MB...TAPPING INTO A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
WINDS. AT THIS POINT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THESE GUSTIER WINDS
WILL BE ACROSS OUR NEB COUNTIES...SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ONCE THE SUN SETS AND
THAT SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...WINDS WILL TAPER OFF CLOSER TO 5 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HAVE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S
ACROSS THE NRN CWA...WITH MID 60S ACROSS NC KS. ALONG WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS...EXPECTING THE DRIER DEWPOINTS UPSTREAM TO ALSO WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA...AND BY MID AFTERNOON MAY BE RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE NW TO NEAR 30 IN THE SE. THE TEMP/DP
COMBO IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO
MAINLY THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE...LITTLE SHY OF CAUSING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ESP WITH WINDS BEING ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WHERE
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL END UP. AS WE GET INTO
TONIGHT...ACTUALLY TRENDED BACK OVERNIGHT LOWS A TOUCH...AS THE
CWA IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LITTLE
WIND...DRIER AIR IN A COOL AIRMASS. TRENDED LOWS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
/WHICH IS LOWER THAN MODEL OUTPUT/...WITH MID/UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTH AND LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL SEE HOW 12Z
GUIDANCE/MODELS TREND...DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

STARING WED MORNING...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO HAVE
A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN IDENTIFYING A MINOR DISTURBANCE WORKING
THROUGH THE TOP OF RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED TRACK OF
THIS WAVE WOULD PLACE THE BETTER FORCING TO OUR NORTHEAST. TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS OVER THE CENTER OF OUR CWA NOT PRODUCING MUCH
LIFT...AS NOTED FROM OMEGA VALUES AND OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN ALSO LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER. THUS WILL KEEP IT DRY.

FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ROCKIES AND INCREASE IN AMPLITUDE AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES
TOWARDS VANCOUVER AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
SWITCHING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
FRIDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM CANADA. THUS WE CAN EXPECT
FRIDAY TO BE THE COOLEST DAY...WITH HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER
THAN WE WILL SEE ON WED AND THU. STILL...WE SHOULD AVOID THE
REALLY COLD AIR LIKE PARTS OF NDAK AND MN WHICH MAY ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE 30S ON FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD END UP TO OUR EAST
BY SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE SOUTH PUTTING US IN
RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT WITH
SATURDAY`S HIGHS STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...MID 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FINALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE SHARP TROUGH NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND SHOULD BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS... AS IS THE CANADIAN MODEL. IT THEN CONTINUES EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT. OF
COURSE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A LONG WAY OUT...IN BOTH TIME AND
DISTANCE. THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DEPEND ON THE SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM...ALONG WITH WHETHER OR NOT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM
ADVECTION TYPE OF PRECIP AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH SO MANY QUESTIONS...WILL MOST LIKELY STICK CLOSE TO CR
EXTENDED GUIDANCE. FOR THE TIMEFRAME WHERE PRECIP IS IN THE
FORECAST...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THUNDER AS BOTH GFS AND EC HAVE MU-CAPE IN THE 300-500 J/KG
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

QUIET WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA.
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES PASS
THROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CWA /BUT INCHING CLOSER WITH
TIME/ WILL KEEP WINDS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
AGAIN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...EWALD
AVIATION...ADP



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