Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
324 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

An upper level trough will track from the northern plains today
into the Great Lakes tonight. At the sfc a cool/dry area of high
pressure will slide down out of Canada and into the northern and
central plains. This is a rather impressive 1026 mb high that will
bring with it continued cool high temperatures generally in the
upper 70s with low dewpoints and low RH values making it feel very
comfortable for late June. Am calling for dry conditions given
the dry airmass overhead. However, given a weak shortwave embedded
within the northwesterly upper flow regime, can not completely
rule out a sprinkle or very light shower across far western or
southwestern zones as we near dawn Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Not a lot of changes in models at the start of the long term period,
showing northwesterly flow in place across the Plains, set up
between ridging extending from high pressure over the Desert SW
northwestward into the Pac NW and a couple of shortwave disturbances
affecting the Great Lakes region. Expecting light winds to be in
place, with a surface ridge axis draped through the area. Through
the daytime hours, models are in good agreement showing little
overall change in either the sfc or upper level pattern. Forecast to
have some low PoPs in across mainly southwestern portions of the
area, potential is there for some scattered precipitation with
models showing some weaker mid level convergence and the entrance
region of an upper level jet streak in the area. While there is some
lift, moisture is lacking to work with, and some models don`t have
much going on - the GFS is on the heavier side. Light winds are
expected to linger all day and overnight, with partly cloudy skies.
It will be another pleasant day, dewpoints in the 40s and high
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s.

As we get into the first days of the upcoming work week, the upper
level ridge axis is starting to push east more into the Rockies,
thanks to a stronger system moving into western Canada. With time
the ridge is becoming more deamplified, with what little remains of
the ridge axis sliding onto the Plains Tuesday. Through the rest of
the week, zonal flow sets up aloft, with the main low pressure
system setting up over central portions of Canada. Models differ
though with how strong of a system sets up - GFS showing a stronger
closed low vs the ECMWF weakening with time. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty Mon-Fri, so overall confidence in precipitation chances
is on the low side.

Already on Monday there are some notable model differences with
precip, when/where it is, and how much...hard to go higher than 20-
40% chances. Thunder mention makes a return, as better moisture and
instability start working their way back north, but there is decent
agreement among models showing the better axis being just west of
the CWA.

Through the rest of the work week, there are decent chances for
thunderstorms each day, mainly during the evening and overnight
hours, as shortwave disturbances slide east across the region in the
zonal flow aloft. There may be more of a threat of strong/severe
weather at times during this period, while models may have some
timing/locations differences to work out in the coming days, there
is better agreement with moisture/instability/shear values
increasing across the region. As far as temperatures go, expecting a
warming trend through mid week, with Wed currently the warmest day,
with highs in the lower/mid 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected with a light wind predominately less
than 12 kts. The light breeze will generally be out of the
northwest or west.




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