Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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586
FXUS63 KGID 270525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Satellite and observations show low clouds lingering for much of the
forecast area this afternoon. There are a few more breaks in the
clouds than there were earlier and the west is starting to clear
out. Surface analysis has a ridge of high pressure across western
Kansas and Nebraska this afternoon.

The surface ridge is expected to continue to drift to the east the
remainder of the afternoon and tonight. The skies should clear
during the afternoon and evening. Initially, the question is will it
clear enough this afternoon to get a few degrees of warming before
the sun is down too far. The rest of the clouds should diminish
quickly as the sun goes down this evening. The high pressure ridge
will also allow the winds to diminish this evening. With clearing
skies and light winds, the temperatures will fall off fairly rapidly
during the evening. Will continue with the frost advisory as it
stands at this time. There continues to be a few caveats with the
temperatures for tonight. First, the clouds need to clear out this
evening. That should be a minimum concern. The next problem is
another area of clouds that should be moving into the area
overnight. If there are more clouds that move in, the west/southwest
part of the forecast area could be a little warmer, but we`re close
enough to have a frost potential.

Thursday morning will remain cool but temperatures will start to
warm up in the morning. As the surface high moves to the east, winds
will turn to the south and there will be some warm advection. Even
with the clouds moving into the area, the temperatures should warm
better than the past couple of days.

An upper level wave moves into the area during the day on Thursday.
The models have a few differences in the timing of the wave. Have
opted to keep the early morning hours dry, but as the wave
approaches showers will move into the forecast area from the west.
Most of the area will be dry in the morning, then chances increase
during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This continues to be an active period. The upper wave from Thursday
continues to move through and the best chances for showers will be
Thursday night into Friday morning. The wave moves through and the
precipitation will move through the area during this time. Thursday
evening will be the best chance in the southern parts of the area,
then Friday morning for the north. There are a few differences in
the timing and what happens for Friday afternoon. The GFS and NAM
both move the precipitation mainly out of the area, while the ECMWF
keeps some precipitation around during the afternoon. Have kept some
lower PoPs in the forecast at this time, but there could be a break
during the afternoon.

Friday night will have some similarities to Friday afternoon. There
could be a break during the evening and even into the overnight. The
upper level wave that moved through is weaker and there is a
developing upper level low in the four corners region. There are a
couple of weak waves that move into the area Friday night. Have kept
PoPs again for the area, but will have to see how far north the
waves get. The area with a better chance will be north central
Kansas. This period gets a little interesting due to colder
temperatures which could bring some mix of rain or snow to mainly
the Nebraska portion of the forecast area. The far west could even
see a change to all snow.

On Saturday, the upper low moves into the southern plains. The
proximity of the low will keep chances for showers going during the
day. As the temperatures warm, rain showers will be the main
precipitation type. By Saturday night and Sunday, the low turns
toward the northeast through Oklahoma and eastern Kansas. This track
is good to get some decent precipitation for the forecast area. Once
again, the temperatures are cold enough that much of the area will
have a mix of rain and snow and the west/northwest could have all
snow late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Accumulation is really
hard at this time of year. The warm ground and warm temperatures
help to keep it melting as it falls.

Finally, Sunday night, the low moves to the northeast and the
precipitation should gradually come to an end. Late Sunday night, as
the precipitation is coming to an end, there could also be a mix of
rain and snow.

Monday through Wednesday there is northwest flow. There are a few
waves that move through. Timing is always a challenge when there are
several waves that are mainly weak. Have kept Monday and Monday
night mainly dry, but by Tuesday into Wednesday the waves become a
little stronger and have a better chance. The temperatures will
finally warm a little during this period and be closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

VFR conditions forecast through the majority of this TAF, with
deteriorating conditions possible in the final few hours of this
period. Surface high pressure over the region will continue the
light/variable winds through the early/mid morning hours, with
winds then turning east-southeasterly for the remainder of the
period. Speeds will remain on the lighter side. Precipitation
chances will be on the increase through the period, with the
better chances coming this afternoon/evening. Possible some
activity may move in before then, but not confident enough in that
timing to put in a mention at this point. Models showing in the
final few hours of the period that ceilings will be dropping to
MVFR.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ060>064-
     072>077-082>087.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049.

KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP



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