Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 171042
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
442 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30
MINUTES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT AS THE LAST REMAINING
PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT OF THE CWA WITH THE THE TROUGH AXIS
CONTINUING TO HEAD TO THE EAST. THE PROBLEM IS THAT WE BEGIN LOSING
THE SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEFORE LIFT ENDS. THIS WILL GIVE
US A SHOT AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST...SO I TOOK FLURRIES OUT OF THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE NEXT QUANDARY WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER PIECE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVE APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE IN WHAT WOULD BE THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SATURATED NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND THIS LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH THAT THIS COULD BE TROUBLE. THE
VEERING WIND PROFILES SUPPORTS THE PRODUCTION OF SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AND THE NAM ADVERTISES WIDELY SCATTERED SPOTS OF LOW QPF.
LOOKS LIKE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES QUICKLY
ALONG. IF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS...IT WILL PROBABLY BE ONLY A
FEW HOURS.

00Z RUNS OF NUMERICAL MODELS PLACE THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE CWA
BY FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS IN 06Z MODELS SEEM TO BE SLOWER...WHICH MIGHT
MAKE FRIDAY MORNING QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...THE ALREADY LOW QPF IS
TRENDING LESS...SO NOT MUCH AT ALL MAY HAPPEN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS
FORECASTING IS DIFFICULT IN SITUATIONS OF PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LOW-
AMPLITUDE WAVES/PERTURBATIONS.

KEPT A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...WITH SOME LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ON THE FRINGES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON SOME TROUGHY LOOK TO THE
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...SO WE COULD
BE IN FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...DEPENDING ON TRENDS OF NUMERICAL MODELS. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE CWA
BY SUNDAY. WE COULD BE IN FOR A LITTLE RAIN OR SNOW EARLY NEXT WORK
WEEK...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES. HOW GREAT
THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE DEPENDS ON THE TROUGH STAYING
AROUND LONG ENOUGH AND ESSENTIALLY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO GIVE US
ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MORE AGREEMENT AMONG
NUMERICAL MODELS WILL BE NEEDED TO INCREASE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED DEC 16 2014

THE SAME THEME FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES...AS THE NUMBER ONE
AVIATION QUESTION LIES WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE TAF SITES CAN SHAKE
FREE OF A LONG-LASTING DECK OF MVFR/NEAR-IFR STRATUS...AND IF SO
FOR HOW LONG? THE PREVIOUS 00Z ISSUANCE ADVERTISED A RETURN TO
VFR CEILING MID-MORNING...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
THIS PROSPECT...OPTED TO KEEP THIS GOING BUT DELAYED BY 3-4 HOURS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FULLY HINGES ON WHETHER DRIER AIR
CAN ADVECT IN FROM THE EAST AND ERODE THE LOWER CLOUD DECK...BUT
ONLY TIME WILL TELL. OTHERWISE...EVEN IF VFR DOES RETURN FOR A
TIME...MVFR WILL LIKELY RETURN TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH MAYBE THE BEGINNING STAGES OF A
LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT
TAF VALID PERIOD. FORTUNATELY...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH THAT VFR
VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD (UNLESS SNOW
MOVES IN EARLIER)...AND SURFACE BREEZES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AVERAGING FROM A EASTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10KT OR LESS.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR KSZ007-018-019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.