Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 190912
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
412 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS HAVE COME IN WITH SOME LIGHT FOG WITH ONLY
SLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. WINDS
WILL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND INCREASE A LITTLE. THE HIGH CLOUDS
LEFT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. A SURFACE LOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND WARM FRONT TO THE
EAST ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA STATE LINE DURING THE EVENING WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A LOW LEVEL JET FORMS DURING THE
NIGHT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT THE CHANCES IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE WARM DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WARM AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND 850MB
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S BY AFTERNOON...EXPECT
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED...AND CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASED TEMPERATURE READINGS FOR WEDNESDAY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO BE ENHANCED
SOME BY A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA...ALBEIT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER OR
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WHERE THE NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE.

AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT THE WARM FRONT THAT
LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO SAG BACK
SOUTHWARD AS A COOL FRONT...BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING.
AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND ADVERTISED POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.

WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NOCTURNAL JET ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED
NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALBEIT THE BEST
SHOT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA USHERING IN UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE HANDLING OF THIS STRONGER FRONT...COOLER WEATHER DOES
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

SO OVERALL...EXPECT A WARM COUPLE OF DAYS TO START THE EXTENDED WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH COOLER AND CONTINUED OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB


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