Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 262305
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
605 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY DIMINISHING IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE PATTERN IS VERY WEAK WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON IS THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM THIS MORNING AND ARE A LITTLE
BEHIND WITH THE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS PLENTY OF HUMIDITY OUT THERE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW EVEN IF IT WILL BE A
STRETCH TO MEET FULL CRITERIA.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE MODELS GENERALLY HAVE SOME
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN MODELS
AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE SOME WIDELY VARIABLE TIMING. WITH THE
CURRENT LOCATION OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS WHEN PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MONDAY PROVIDES A FEW CHALLENGES AS WELL. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ON
THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OR
EVEN A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TIME. DURING THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON THE
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY WEST AND NORTH NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT BY AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT SLIDES NORTH A LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
HAVE KEPT POPS OF ONLY 20 PERCENT SINCE THE MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES. THE NAM AND THE SREF BOTH HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS IS DRY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS LARGELY IN PART DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRUDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR MUCH OF THE MID TERM PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL SLIDE NORTH
AND BECOME NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.
WHILE MOST MODELS REMAIN DRY...THE NAM SOLUTION SUGGESTS A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE GENERATING AN AFTERNOON STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE. SHOULD THIS BE REALIZED...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
MONDAY NIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT WITH FROPA EXPECTED FOR THE TRI CITIES BY MID MORNING.
THEREFORE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI
CITIES...NEAR FROPA DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY WILL STAND
THE BEST OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT. BEHIND
THE FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRIER AIR.

BY WEDNESDAY THE MAIN SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREK EASTWARD...WHILE THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT OVER KANSAS. AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND WHILE CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST AREA...WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF OUR KANSAS
COUNTIES. THAT BEING SAID...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
NICEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

UNFORTUNATELY THE COOLER TEMPERATURES DO NOT LAST. WARMER NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MAKE THEIR RETURN TO THE FORECAST
AREA...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S CLOSE OUT THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. NUMEROUS LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO ARE ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SLIDE
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS AN IMPRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THERE IS SOME
DISCREPANCY IF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT AT LEAST A VCTS IS JUSTIFIED
FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. EVENSO...OUTSIDE OF A
TSRA RIGHT OVER THE TERMINAL...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS IN THE
TAF THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 27/14Z.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ063-064-075>077-
     084>087.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...ROSSI



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