Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 030253 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

UPDATED MOST PRODUCTS FOR THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
4 NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN SCOPE
AND POTENTIALLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER. SEEING THE OUTFLOW
START TO KICK OUT FROM MAIN LINE SUGGEST SOME WEAKENING
POTENTIAL IN NEAR TERM...AND WILL HAVE TO SEE IF LOW LEVEL
JET CAN HELP REINTENSIFY THE LINE A BIT AS THE STORMS
APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE A PERSISTENT PATCH OF STRATUS OVER
THE NEBRASKA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THE
STRATUS THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO RISE AND THE
WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN AREAS WITH SUNSHINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LATER TONIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE IN
QUESTION SINCE MODELS HAVE A FEW TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE MAIN IDEA
WILL BE THAT MOST OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY WITH THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER
NORTH IN THE AREA AND KANSAS HAS THE LEAST CHANCE. THE BEST MUCAPE
IS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN FOR TONIGHT THE MUCAPE IS STILL
AROUND 3000 J/KG. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER
TONIGHT.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WHEN IT COMES TO
WEDNESDAY. THE 4KM WRF BRINGS THE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
IS BASICALLY GONE BY MORNING WHILE THE NAM AND GFS KEEP
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE MORNING AND EVEN REDEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 4KM WRF KEEPS PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS IN
DURING THE DAY BUT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM REMAINS WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO BE LOW.

HASNT BEEN MUCH CHANGE LOOKING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER WRN MEX
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SET UP NEAR THE SRN CO/KS BORDER...WITH A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING N/NE. MODEL AGREEMENT NOT BAD THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING THE CWA...JUST A MATTER OF WHAT THAT
EXACT LOCATION WILL BE...STILL SOME DIFFERENCES. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THAT FRONT...WITH LIFT AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NOSE OF A 40+ KT S/SWRLY LLJ. DIDNT REALLY
MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE POPS...WITH QUESTIONS STILL LINGERING WITH
WHAT PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXACTLY WILL SEE ACTIVITY. THE BETTER
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND WARMER MID
LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING...BUT WILL THAT KEEP ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MAINLY
OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...OR WILL IT SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH INTO NC KS.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN THE DAY 2 SLIGHT
RISK...AND FAR WRN AREAS IN THE ENHANCED AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION IN
HWO AS IS.

AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...ONE IS CONCERN IS THAT CURRENT FORECAST
POPS ARE TOO HIGH. THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN/SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...WITH QUESTIONS LINGERING WITH HOW
MUCH ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE DURING THE DAY. ONLY HAVE CHANCE POPS
GOING...BUT DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT/MODELS TREND...COULD
SEE THOSE NEEDED TO BE LOWERED...AT LEAST FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.

BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED...RIDGING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ERN COAST AND LOW PRESSURE DIGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THAT SAME BASIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CWA
SITTING ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND BETTER CAPPING FROM WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL LIE WITH WHAT PATH ANY
DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT FROM THAT MAIN WRN LOW WILL TAKE...WHICH
LOOKS TO BE EITHER RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OR PERHAPS JUST OFF TO THE
NORTH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER POPS ON ANY PARTICULAR
DAY...BUT ALSO NOT ENOUGH IN THOSE TRACKS TO CUT POPS COMPLETELY.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY TOO...CURRENT FORECAST HAS NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IF NOT A BIT ABOVE...BUT BIG QUESTION IS WITH HOW LINGERING
CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER FROM ACTIVITY COULD MESS THEM UP. PLENTY OF
THINGS TO IRON OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 03Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN BOTH KEAR AND KGRI AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT DEFINING A HIGH CONFIDENCE AREA OR TIME IN
THIS PATTERN IS VERY CHALLENGING. WOULD EXPECTED SOME PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN TOWARD DAWN WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN TIMING/LOCATION OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORITZ
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...MORITZ


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.