Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 301144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
644 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Not a lot of change in the overall story through the short term
period, primary forecast concern remains with precipitation
chances, and confidence is on the low side.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue to drift across the
region early this morning, no doubt the stronger portions are
dropping heavy rain. Over the past hour or so, far northwestern
Greeley County has been seeing the most rain, but it is drifting
north. Aloft, the region continues to sit under the influence of a
weak trough axis, set up between high pressure ridging from
southern CA into the Central Rockies and high pressure centered
roughly over the MO/IL/KY border area. While overall forcing is on
the lower side, its not taking much of a disturbance to spark off
some precip, and it`s aided by an upper level jet streak crossing
the region. At the surface, similar to the upper levels, the
pattern is weak. Light and variable winds remain in place across
the entire CWA.

Through the short term period today/tonight, in a big picture
sense, models aren`t in too bad of agreement. Not seeing a
significant change in the upper level pattern, with that trough
axis and upper level jet streak remain in the vicinity. Can`t
completely rule any portion of the CWA out for precipitation
chances, though in general models have been keeping more qpf
across roughly the south- southeastern half of the CWA, and did
keep the higher PoPs there. Hard to go too high with PoPs though,
as the precip looks like it will keep its scattered/hit-and-miss
nature through tonight. Best chances still look to come this
afternoon/evening. See no reason to make any changes to the
inherited Flash Flood Watch which is in effect through today.
Shear/instability parameters continue to show severe weather is
not likely.

As far as temperatures go, guidance/models point toward a cooler
day today, thanks to plenty of cloud cover/precip chances.
Current forecast calls for mid 70s for our NE counties, upper 70
across KS. Some guidance suggests this is even still too warm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Wednesday could see some lingering chances for showers and
thunderstorms across our southern zones for the first part of the
day, then conditions dry out in a pattern change for the latter
part of the workweek. Heights rise across the interior conus
Wednesday in between an upper trough moving into the pacific
northwest region and a trough reaching the northeastern states.
Drier air advects in from the east as a surface high pressure
builds south from the upper midwest region, which also backs in
some cooler air. Temperatures will trend a few degrees cooler than
seasonal normals, closer to 80 degrees for highs for a couple of
days, with low temperatures a bit more noticeably cooler in the

The western conus trough moves further inland on Friday causing
the Central Plains upper ridge to shift east with flow aloft
transitioning southwesterly. Southerly lowlevel flow increases
across our region with steady/gusty south winds drawing moisture
back onto the plains. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return
to the forecast Friday night as a lead shortwave trough lifts out,
with lift aided by a strengthening low level jet. The weather
pattern over the Labor Day holiday weekend and through the Labor
Day holiday remains unsettled with intermittent chances for
showers and thunderstorms in an overall southwest flow regime,
with the initial upper low lifting out on Saturday into
Saskatchewan ahead of another trough digging farther south into
the Rockies Sunday/Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Confidence in the forecast for this TAF period remains quite low.
Showers/thunderstorms remain possible for most of the period, but
nailing down specific timing has been and continues to be
difficult. Do have -SHRA for a few hours this morning for rain in
the area, models suggest it will push off to the north. Otherwise
kept mention at VCTS. Kept prevailing conditions VFR through much
of the period, though MVFR conditions are not out of the question
this morning. Models suggest a better chance for lower ceilings
will come late in the period, when precip chances are starting to
push south of the terminal areas. Winds look to remain light
through the period.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for NEZ074>077-

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for KSZ005>007-



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