Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280521
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1221 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Updated the forecast for tonight to bring in fog a bit earlier and
extend farther east to include all of tri-cities. I suspect a
portion of the CWA may really tank late tonight as both the HRRR
and SREF indicate that this is a distinct possibility as we will
be on the west edge of stratus and we cleared late in the day for
much of the CWA. HSI even temporarily dipped to 2 1/2SM earlier in
the afternoon when sun broke out and warmed a soaked ground. Will
monitor to see if it is prudent to go any further with fog
potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Current stratus has been slow to erode this afternoon, but the
western and northern areas have seen a little sun this afternoon.
The southeast may struggle to get much sun unless it erodes a little
faster. The clouds have also impacted temperatures this afternoon
and will likely cool things of a little.

With the stratus not going away, there will likely be some more
stratus and some fog tonight. With the surface high gradually moving
to the east, there will be a more easterly component to the winds
this evening and tonight.

Late tonight there will be an upper level wave that approaches from
an upper low on the high plains. Some light rain should move into
the western part of the forecast area late tonight. On Tuesday, the
upper low continues to move slowly into the central and southern
plains. The chance of precipitation spreads to the east and much of
the forecast area should get some precipitation by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level low will move to the east Tuesday night through
Thursday and is expected to continue to bring chances for
precipitation to the area. The best chances will be from Tuesday
night through Wednesday night. Precipitation should be fairly
widespread and there should be some beneficial rain for most. By
Thursday, the upper low is moving to the east and precipitation
should move out of the area during the afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday there is a weak upper level ridge moving
through the area and a surface high drifts through. This period
should be dry, even if there are some clouds around the area.

Friday night through Saturday night there is another upper level low
that moves out of the Rockies and through the central and southern
plains. The models have some differences in them that could lead to
some changes in the weather. The ECMWF has more of an open wave that
moves through a little faster than the GFS with a cut off low in the
southern plains that is slower. There are still some good chances
for some precipitation, but with the model differences, there is a
little uncertainty. That uncertainty continues into Sunday through
Monday. Currently have followed more of the ECMWF with the open wave
that gives a break during the day on Sunday, then brings in another
wave Monday.

Through the period, temperatures will be a few degrees either side
of normal or this time of year. A couple of the nights may be a
little on the cooler side and there could be a mix of snow. Have
tried to keep this to a minimum since it has been so warm it may be
a bit of a challenge to get much snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Potential for fog development will be the primary concern
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Current thinking is that
the thickest fog will be west. KEAR could easily fall into the
LIFR range, but have less confidence that it will affect KGRI so
maintained MVFR conditions for now.

Rain showers arrive from the west to east late Tuesday morning
into the afternoon. Coverage should be pretty limited early on, so
kept VCSH out of the TAF until 18Z, but there is still a low
probability that it moves in earlier.

Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate, likely into the
LIFR range Tuesday night as heavier bands of rain move into the
area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Mangels



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