Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 211114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
514 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

While still cold, today (daytime) will be quiet weatherwise
before the next round of wintry weather moves in overnight and
Thursday. After a cold start in the morning with some sub zero
temperatures and single digit readings, temperatures will
moderate to some degree as a strong 1040mb surface high lifts out
of the plains to the Upper Midwest. A fair amount of sunshine is
expected for much of the day, with clouds increasing from the
south tonight with an increase in moisture ahead of lead
shortwave trough lifting out the mean western CONUS upper trough.

Isentropic lift ramps up during the evening across Kansas, spreading
north across central and eastern Nebraska/Kansas tonight and
bringing another round of wintry precipitation. Models still have
their differences on how this event will unfold with an initial
band of precipitation expected to develop in eastern Kansas and
southeast Nebraska. However the 00Z GFS also develops a second
precipitation band farther northwest of this area, right across
our cwa from north central Kansas into south central Nebraska and
is quicker with the onset of precip this evening.

To complicate the timing/placement of this event even further is the
precipitation type. Model forecast soundings show primarily snow at
the onset, but a loss in dendritic moisture into the overnight hours
and on Thursday forces a transition to freezing drizzle at times.
The first round of light wintry weather associated with the
isentropic lift shifts eastward Thursday morning and there may be a
lull or lesser intensity wintry precip for a time until the lead
mid level shortwave trough lifts across the plains during the
afternoon/evening, bringing another round of wintry weather. The
development of a snow band across our northern/western zones still
remains possible, however models still are not showing complete
saturation in the dendritic layer and an overall wintry mix would
hold down snow amounts. Our current forecast has snow totals near
an inch from Ord to Fullerton, but this could be higher if we see
more saturation, or even less if the band shifts or we see more
freezing precipitation. Ice accumulations could be problematic
later tonight and Thursday and as we`ve seen earlier this week, it
doesn`t take much ice to cause impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The wintry precipitation ends west to east Thursday evening behind
the departing mid level trough axis, leaving a brief reprieve
from precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Then attention
turns to the next winter storm system still poised to move in
Friday night and Saturday as the western CONUS upper trough
crosses the Rockies and emerges onto the plains. The GFS is the
most aggressive with the weekend system with a closed H7 low
lifting from western Kansas across Nebraska whereas the 00Z NAM
was a little more progressive with an open wave, however the 06Z
NAM has begun to trend toward a stronger solution, but not with
as much moisture as the GFS. In any case, another round of wintry
weather is set to impact our region and the precipitation type
remains mixed and messy, anywhere from snow/sleet/freezing
drizzle/drizzle or a combination of these. Those with weekend
plans will need to keep a close eye on this system as conditions
favor the potential for both ice and snow accumulations.

Moving on to Sunday and into early next week, we finally seem to
catch a break from wintry precipitation with dry conditions
forecast Sunday to Tuesday. The pattern transitions more zonal and
temperatures favor fairly seasonal readings with highs in the 40s
for a couple of days. By mid to late next week the pattern is
trending active again with periods of colder/wetter weather


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 511 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2018

The daytime will be quiet for the terminals with light winds and
limited VFR cloud cover. The weather will undergo changes tonight
with an approaching storm system. Clouds will lower after dark
with MFVR to possibly IFR ceilings by 12Z Thursday. Wintry
precipitation chances increase with the potential for light snow
and freezing drizzle, along with light ice accumulations.





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