Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 032120
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
ONE FINAL DAY OF ARCTIC COLD AND THEN WARMTH RETURNS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

ALOFT: A LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDED FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SSW TO A
CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO BAJA CA. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS
E AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA BY SUNSET TOMORROW...EXTENDING
FROM THE UPR MIDWEST TO NM. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF /BEST SEEN
AT 700 MB/ WAS OVER WY/UT. THIS TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW...BUT IT WILL STRENGTHEN
THE MID-LVL TEMP GRADIENT ON THE FRONTAL SURFACE...ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LIFT/SATURATION.

SURFACE: AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS SURGED ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TODAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRES OVER WRN CANADA WAS BUILDING IN AND WILL
SLIDE SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW. IT IS THIS FRONTAL SURFACE
THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENED ALOFT.

TONIGHT: ANY CLEARING THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REPLACED
BY MORE CLOUDS AS A BAND OF MODERATE-STRONG FGEN FORMS IN THE MID-
LVLS AND DROPS ACROSS THE AREA.

MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICTS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM CO
INTO SW NEB/NW KS 00Z-03Z...EXPANDING ACROSS PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA 03Z-09Z...AND THEN DIMINISHING AND/OR SINKING S 09Z-12Z.

NAM CROSS SECTIONS DO INDICATE SOME WEAK SYMMETRIC STABILITY. SO
THIS BAND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO OVER-PRODUCE OVER A VERY NARROW
AREA.

SNOW: DESPITE THIS BEING A MINOR EVENT...THE BUST POTENTIAL IS
HIGH. THESE TYPES OF NARROW BANDED EVENTS USUALLY HAVE VERY SHARP
GRADIENTS AND WHILE WE CAN HAVE MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE THEY WILL
OCCUR...CONFIDENCE IS USUALLY LOW ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL.

ACCUM: THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD. SO USED A 20:1 SNOW:LIQUID RATIO
AND THAT MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. USING A 50-50 BLEND OF THE
06Z/12Z MODELS...THE FCST HAS AROUND 1" S AND W OF HASTINGS WITH A
MAX OF 1.5" OVER FURNAS/HARLAN COUNTIES. THIS IS NOT GOSPEL. IT
WILL DEPEND WHERE THE BAND FORMS AND LINGERS THE LONGEST. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED 3" AMT SOMEWHERE.

THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE DEEP! ROUGHLY 10K FT.

NOT AS EASY CALL ON LOW TEMPS. MULTI-MODEL 2M TEMPS USUALLY
VERIFY BEST IN THESE CLOUDY NIGHTTIME SITUATIONS...AND MOS IS
USUALLY TOO COLD. COULD NOT GO AS WARM AS I WANTED TO...BUT USED A
BLEND OF THE MODEL 2M TEMPS AND THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH A BIAS
CORRECTION. THAT DID INCREASE TEMPS A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY N OF HWY
6.

WED: ANY LEFTOVER SNOW OVER N-CNTRL KS WILL END. MULTI-MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL RH REMAINING. SO
SKIES PROBABLY WONT BEGIN TO CLEAR MOST AREAS UNTIL AFTERNOON.
USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF MODEL 2M TEMPS FOR HIGHS /26-32F
WITH UPR 20S IN THE TRI-CITIES/. THIS IS 15F COLDER THAN NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
A SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED.

ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY...
THERE WILL BE WARM ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES RISE RAPIDLY ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT MUCH WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE A FEW FAIRLY WEAK WAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. NONE OF THEM ARE VERY STRONG AND AT MOST EXPECT
A FEW CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER WAVE THAT IS MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS COULD BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ONLY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z WED AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH N WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD (3 HRS?) OF IFR -SN. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHERE
THIS BAND DEVELOPS. SO FOR NOW HAVE IMPROVED THE TAFS TO VFR /VS
THE 12Z TAFS/. N WINDS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

WED THRU 18Z: VFR CIGS AROUND 13K FT. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND
20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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