Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 232007
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
207 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

...Record Warmth Today and We May Not Be Done with Records
Threatened Mon as Well Before Temps Finally Return Back to Near
Normal...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Hazardous Weather: Near critical fire wx conds Fri. See fire wx
section below.

Aloft: Moderately amplified longwave flow was over the CONUS with
a deamplifying ridge over the W and a trof over the E. A
shortwave trof was moving onshore in the Pac NW. This trof will
rapidly translate across the Nrn Rockies tonight and across the
Nrn Plns tomorrow...temporarily mowing down the Wrn ridge. The
tail end of this trof will cross the CWA tomorrow eve.

Surface: High pres stretched from TX-OH. A downslope-warmed air
mass was over the Plns from MT/ND to W TX. A cool front was moving
onshore into the Pac NW. The CWA will remain in the warm sector
of low pres heading E across Srn Canada...until the Pac cool front
moves thru tomorrow. NW USA high pres will immediately begin
building in behind the front.

Rest of this afternoon: Amazingly warm for Thxgvg Day. Daytime
highs should be in the 40s! High temps should peak around 4 PM.

This is record warmth. GRI broke its record between 12 and 1 PM
(66 in 2011 and 2005).

Tonight: M/clr to p/cldy with variable cirrostratus drifting
thru. Skies could even turn temporarily m/cldy. Very mild with
lows in the 40s...which is 20F above normal. As noted by the prvs
shift...that is where our daytime highs should be for late Nov!

Fri: Windy and very warm despite the frontal passage. M/sunny
with SCT altocu drifting thru and possibly a FEW stratocu.

Temps: Given that the front will be moving thru during the
day...this casts some uncertainty on high temps since temps will
begin to fall...countered by insolation. Used a blend of all
guidance for highs which offered highs in the mid-upr 60s over S-
cntrl Neb and low-mid 70s over N-cntrl KS.

This really isn`t much of a cool front. Temps will still be
warmer than normal in its wake...they just won`t be quite so
anomalous.

Winds: Increase to 18-25 kts with gusts up to 35 kts...mainly
along and N of Hwy 6. Gust should remain 30 kts or less S of Hwy
6.


.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Potentially Hazardous Wx: None currently expected.

Aloft: The trof that moves thru tomorrow will do little to break
this anomalously warm pattern. The Wrn ridge will pop right back
up in its wake. A low fcst to move into the Aleutians this
weekend. This will gradually force the persistent E Pac trof into
the Wrn USA Mon. This +tilt trof will cross the Plns Tue. A
shortwave ridge should follow Wed.

This trof is fcst to bifurcate with a low breaking at its base
and heading E into the Srn Plns. We are occasionally see a run or
two where this low heads NE into Neb/KS. This could bring some
good precip to the area if it materializes. The 12Z EC is
advertising this along with 7 members from the 00Z EC ensemble.
Right now this is currently a low probability...but next Wed will
need to be watched for fcst changes.

Temps: A warm front will form and cross the CWA Sun in advance of
the low pres sys moving into the Wrn USA. Another downslope-
warmed air mass will move in Mon...possibly warmer than what we`re
seeing today. Near record warmth (within 5F):

GRI: 73 in 1998
HSI: 71 in 1998

Highs were increased close to GFS MOS. The associated cold front
will move thru Mon night and this will finally return temps back
to where they should be for late Nov.

Precip: The fcst conts dry...but that could change for next Wed
dependent upon how things shake out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Significant Wx: LLWS 10Z-16Z followed by NW winds to 35 kts.

This Afternoon: VFR. No clds at or below (AOB) 10K ft. WSW winds
5-11 kts. Confidence: High

Tonight: VFR. No clds AOB 10K ft. LLWS develops after 09Z. SW-W
winds 6-12 kts. Confidence: High

Fri thru 18Z: VFR with cold frontal passage. There could be a few
stratocu around 5K ft after 16Z...but most clds will be above 10K
ft. SW-W winds 7-15 kts. LLWS ends around 16Z with WSHFT to NW
with winds increasing 18-24 kts with gusts up to 35 kts.
Confidence: High

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Near critical fire wx conds are fcst over Rooks/Osborne counties
Fri. Winds will exceed critical...but RH`s are currently fcst to
fall short (24-25%). This needs to be watched as dwpts could be a
little lower than currently fcst. If they do end up lower
...Phillips and Smith counties could be near critical as well.

The RH guidance that has been performing best lately suggests RH`s
will not go lower than 21%.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley



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