Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGID 311009
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST
TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW OF SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP W/E AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WORK NORTH. UPSTREAM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES HAS PRODUCED CONVECTION IN THE VCNTY OF
RAPID CITY AND A FEW MODELS TRY TO WORK THIS INTO NORTHERN NEB OR
TOWARDS OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTN. CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS NOT HIGH BASED ON THE DRY LLVLS IN RAP
SOUNDINGS...BUT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAYS IN
THE MODERATING AIRMASS WITH 70S EXPECTED.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE
ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...THEN WORK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT IN
WAA PATTERN AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING LLVL JET. THE MAIN
INSTABILITY AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND NOT LOOKING FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS FAR EAST ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

ALOFT: A BROAD TROF WILL EVOLVE OVER THE WRN USA THIS WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROFS EJECTING OUT OF IT.
MODELS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY IN ONE TROF FCST TO MOVE THRU THU.
THIS IS EVEN SEEN IN THE 12Z/30 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. ONE NOTEABLE TREND
FROM 24 HRS AGO IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH
A SHORTENING WAVELENGTH WRN USA TROF BEGINNING THU...AND A LOW NOW
FCST TO CLOSE OFF OVER CA/NV. THIS NOW RESULTS IN A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE PLAINS FRI.

SURFACE: THE FCST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRES TO THE E AND A LEE-SIDE TROF TO THE W. WITH
A RIDGE NOW FCST TO BUILD OVERHEAD...THIS IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY THE
DOWNSTREAM TROF...WHICH WOULD SEND THE POLAR FRONT S INTO THE FCST
AREA AROUND FRI.

FCST CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND ASSOCIATED INHERENT MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THAT LEAVES THE
FCST MAINLY HINGING ON MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MINIMAL
PREDICTABILITY BEYOND ONE DAY INTO THE FUTURE.

THE 244 AM WPC EXTENDED FCST DISCUSSION PROVIDES A GOOD OVERVIEW
INTO FCST UNCERTAINTIES.

A FEW CONCERNS...

STRATUS: BELIEVE WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG
ON A DAILY BASIS THIS WEEK. THE COOL FRONT THAT MOVED THRU FRI EVE
EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND-OH VALLEY-TX AND THERE IS EXTENSIVE LOW
STRATUS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. AS LOW-LVL WINDS BECOME E AND
EVENTUALLY SE TODAY-TONIGHT...THIS SHOULD CIRCULATE THIS MOISTURE/
CLOUD COVER INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS WILL BE A WILD CARD IN THE FCST
AND COULD RESULT IN HUGE BUSTS IN OUR DAYTIME TEMP FCSTS.

GULF MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN N SUN-MON...WITH AN EML ADVECTING
OVERTOP OF THIS MOIST PLUME AS MID-LVL WINDS BACK TO THE SW. EXPECT
TSTMS WILL BE A DAILY OCCURRENCE WITHIN THE LEE TROF...SOME OF WHICH
WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO TSTM CLUSTERS/MCS`S AND PROPAGATE E INTO OR
NEAR THE FCST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED AND/OR JOINED BY
NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE DIURNAL PULSES OF THE LOW-LVL JET.
DETERMINING WHEN/WHERE/IF TSTMS WILL OCCUR IS IMPOSSIBLE WITH ANY
DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING. SO THE FCST
MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF TSTMS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TIME IT
WILL BE DRY.

RAINFALL: THIS PATTERN HAS POTENTIAL TO DELIVER SOME VERY HEAVY
AND/OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...BUT IT`S DEPENDENT ON THE TRACKS OF MCS
ACTIVITY. GFS/EC RUN-TOTAL QPFS CONT IN THE 3-7" RANGE OVER OR CLOSE
TO THE FCST AREA. NO GUARANTEES ON THIS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

SEVERE: PLEASE CONT TO MONITOR SPC OUTLOOKS/DISCUSSIONS. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE SVR AS DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
PROVIDE ANY SPECIFICS GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF FORCING. THE
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE DETERMINED ON A DAILY BASIS AS WE SEE HOW
MESOSCALE DETAILS EVOLVE. ONE THING DOES SEEM CLEAR: WEAK WIND
FIELDS AND A LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT TO PRIMARILY
WIND AND HAIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TODAY
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSITION
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AFTER DARK WITH THE
BETTER POTENTIAL EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED AND HAVE JUST WENT WITH VCTS ATTM.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...FAY



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.