Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240548
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS NEARLY MADE IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE BAND OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR AGAIN. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S
TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING A
LITTLE QPF INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST SINCE THE LOWER
LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE LOWEST LAYER
TO MOISTEN UP ENOUGH TO GET RAIN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VERY LITTLE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FORESEEN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE
SHOWING A CONSISTENT SIGNAL BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NOTABLY COLDER
AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO NEAR -10C WITH THIS NEXT SURGE
OF COLDER AIR...WHICH IF REALIZED...WILL LIKELY MARK A RETURN TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

STARTING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO OPTED TO KEEP ONLY A SPRINKLE MENTION
WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE TIME BEING. THE MORE NOTABLE FEATURE
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE THE INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
ON SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE.
TEMPERATURE WISE...WILL ALSO SEE A MODEST DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
FORECAST TO DROP 4-7C BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. WHILE THIS WILL
STILL RESULT IN SEASONABLY TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...IT
WILL LIKELY FEEL NOTABLY COOLER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE
ACCOMPANYING BRISK WINDS.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO START THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS RUNNING GENERALLY ABOUT 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. AS THE MAIN RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES THEN BREAKS DOWN MID/LATE WEEK...EXPECT A COOLER
AIRMASS TO INITIALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION BY THURSDAY...WITH THE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT SCOPE OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH A BASE NEAR 15000FT AGL...WILL BE
OBSERVED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST...SUSTAINED AT AROUND 09KTS TO START
THE TAF PERIOD BUT INCREASING TO AROUND 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH TAF SITES
STARTING 03Z...AND SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE TAF. VISIBILITY
RESTRICTION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...BRYANT



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