Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
354 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Following an interesting late afternoon/evening with a few reports
of hail/tornadoes across portions of our NE counties, things
have been quiet through the overnight hours. The upper level low
pressure system responsible for that active weather has been
sliding northeast with time, and currently sits near the SD/MN
border. At the surface, the cold front has moved east of the CWA,
extending south from low pressure in eastern SD along the MO
river, through central KS and into the Southern Plains. This front
has ushered in westerly and at times gusty winds, though speeds
have tapered over a big in the past few hours.

Through the short term period today/tonight, overall no
significant changes were made. In the upper levels, models are
in good agreement showing that area of low pressure not moving a
whole lot, meandering around in that SD/ND/MN border area. It
continues to look like the system will remain just far enough
north of the CWA to keep precipitation chances out/dry forecast
going. Same story with the surface pattern, with the low remaining
to the north in the eastern Dakotas. Any period this morning with
diminished speeds look to be a short-lived one, with speeds
ramping back up toward late morning and through the afternoon. The
lingering tightened pressure gradient and increased mixing
potential into stronger winds aloft is expected to result in NWrly
winds in the 15-25 MPH range, with gusts near 30 MPH. As far as
temperatures go, models continue to show the better push of colder
air coming tonight, so forecast highs for today are in the
lower/mid 50s. Overnight lows tonight are forecast to drop into
the upper 20s-lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Overview...A large upper level trough will be centered over the
northern plains at the start of the period and the upper jet
stream will pretty much remain south of our forecast area
throughout the forecast period. Therefore, temperatures will
likely be at or below normal through the week into next weekend.
Normal highs are now in the lower 40s and we will likely see highs
in the 30s to lower 40s through most of the period. We also do not
seem positioned well to see much in the way of precipitation and
most of our forecast area should remain dry, but forecast
uncertainty becomes rather high by next weekend.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The large upper low over the northern
plains will slowly slide into the Great Lakes Region. However,
before the system moves out it`s at least possible that a little
very light snow or flurries could wrap around the back side of the
low into our northern counties. Not expecting accumulating snow,
but can not rule out a few snow flakes primarily north of I-80
primarily Tuesday night. Highs will fall from mainly 40s on
Tuesday to predominately 30s for Nebraska to lower 40s Kansas on

Thursday into Friday...We will see another storm system dig across
the western United States forcing the jet stream to remain well
south of our forecast area. This will keep it cold.

Saturday into Sunday...Uncertainty is very high regarding the
timing and track of that next storm system out of the desert
southwest. The 00Z GFS and most of the GFS ensembles are very slow
to eject this system out into the plains and then track it across
the far southern plains as a weak wave. The 00Z ECMWF is an
outlier in more quickly ejecting the system and also sending it
further north where we could see light snow in our southeastern
counties by this weekend with heavier snow to our south. Official
forecast will more closely following the GFS for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

VFR conditions are in the forecast for this TAF period, with the
better chances of precip/lower clouds being to the north of the
terminal areas. Will continue to have the threat of LLWS over the
next couple hours, but winds will diminish with time, at least
through the morning hours. Speeds look to ramp back up as we head
toward midday and through the afternoon hours, with gusts near 30
MPH possible. Any sky cover through the period looks to remain in
the mid/upper levels, with some models showing diminishing sky
cover through the latter half of the TAF period.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.