Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 241551
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1051 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

995 MB LOW PRES WAS OVER CNTRL SD. THE COLD FRONT ALOFT IS
CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL NEB/KS...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DRY TROF WHICH
EXTENDS FROM ODX-HDE-NRN. SCT SHWRS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING IN THE
LAST HR.

DWPTS ARE IN THE MID-UPR 50S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF. UPDATED THE
FCST USING THE 13 KM RAP WHICH BRINGS VERY DRY DWPTS IN FROM THE W
THIS AFTN. DWPTS ARE IN THE 30S JUST W OF THE FCST AREA AT
IML/OGA/LBF/TIF/BBW.

EXPECT SCT SHWRS TO BECOME TSTMS ESPECIALLY BY 3 PM E OF HWY 281.
SHOULD BE DRY TO THE W OF 281 BY THAT TIME. THE TSTMS SHOULD EXIT
THE FCST AREA AND BE INTO ERN NEB/KS BY 6 PM.

CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT HEATING SOME...BUT STILL EXPECT MLCAPE UP TO
1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 KTS WITH A FAIRLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE. INITIAL STORMS COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR.

MEAN CELL MVMT WILL BE TO THE NE AT 40-45 KTS.

GOES E GOES INTO RAPID SCAN MODE AT 1814Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AND TONIGHT IS HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. LIGHT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS ONGOING THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. THE MAJORITY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 81 BY SUNRISE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MID-
MORNING...BUT INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE TRI-CITIES AND MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST IN THIS AREA MAINLY DRY
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH IF
THIS OCCURS. MAINLY EXPECTING SKIES TO SCATTER ACROSS WESTERN
SECTIONS AND HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. COOLER IN
THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE/SD BORDER. THE FRONT/TROUGH
WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. A BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY WILL THE
UPPER LOW MOVE...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR HOW FAR EAST THE
FRONT WILL MOVE. IF IT SLOWS DOWN...AS HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. INSTABILITY OF 1500-2000J/KG MUCAPE AND
45-50KTS SHEAR IS AMPLE FOR ANY STORM TO BE SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THESE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AROUND OR
JUST AFTER SUNSET.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

MONDAY THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...BUT A LITTLE
COOLER THAN TODAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE IS A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS THE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA WILL TURN TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BRING IN
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAINLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH A
WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. MUCAPE OF UP TO 5000 J/KG ARE
FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM FRONT
MOVES TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVEN WHEN THE
MUCAPE DECREASES SOME. EXPECT THERE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME
OF THEM COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. THE TRACK
AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE ECMWF. WITH THE FURTHER NORTH TRACK THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE EARLIER.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVEN THE ECMWF STARTS TO PULL FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THERE IS LITTLE CAPE LEFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO
HAVE JUST SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. EVEN WITH THE
DIFFERENCES BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA AND THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MON MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADDITION TO A WIND SHIFT.

A WIND SHIFT ALONG A SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. BRIEF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AROUND 18Z. DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE HAVE LEFT THIS OUT...BUT IT
COULD IMPACT BOTH KEAR/KGRI. THEN AROUND 20Z HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD ORIGINATE AROUND THE KGRI TERMINAL. IT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. AT THIS TIME DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY THAT STORMS MAY ACTUALLY DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS
KGRI...HAVE LEFT ANY THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



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