Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 030320
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
920 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE FORECAST OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT. MOST SITES ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A 10 TO 15F SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. THE
00Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTENING UP THE SFC
LAYER AND SATURATING US RIGHT DOWN TO THE SFC...BUT MOST OTHER
MODELS STILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR RIGHT NEAR THE SFC THAT
COULD REALLY LIMIT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING FREEZING DRIZZLE IS HIGHEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 6 IN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO PUT OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP AND BECOMES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...THEN A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE WOULD LIKELY BE
ISSUED RATHER QUICKLY LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM JUST DOES NOT HAVE
ENOUGH SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS OR OBSERVATIONS TO FOLLOW IT
COMPLETELY AT THIS POINT IN TIME...BUT THAT COULD QUICKLY CHANGE
AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW SATURATED WE BECOME
IN THE LOW LAYERS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

LOTS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS WITH CHCS FOR LIGHT FREEZING
PCPN TONIGHT AND INTENSE WINDS ON TUESDAY.

THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURED SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. FARTHER
UPSTREAM IN CANADA...THE FLOW WAS SPLIT WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SE FROM ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...LOW
PRESSURE WAS DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WAS STEADY AND WINDS GUSTY IN THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH AND MODELS PROG
THE AIRMASS OVER OKLAHOMA/NORTH TEXAS TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION
TONIGHT. A WIDESPREAD SWATH OF STRATUS IN THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO
MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS OUR ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT. ONCE
THE LOW CLOUDS/LOW LLVL MOISTURE SETTLES IN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE STEADY SOUTHERLY FLOW...MIXING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LIFT/MIXING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
DRIZZLE...BEGINNING IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND SPREADING NORTH
DURING THE NIGHT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT THE LOWLEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE AS THE MAJORITY OF MODELS DROP TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING...WITH READINGS TRENDING ABOVE
FREEZING SOUTH TO NORTH HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAP
REMAINS THE WARMEST WITH THE SFC TEMP PROFILE AND ONLY SUGGESTS
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING BEFORE WARMING. ULTIMATELY...FOR LOWS HAVE DONE A
MODEL BLEND AMONGST SEVERAL MODELS WHICH DO DROP READINGS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. WITH READINGS BELOW FREEZING AND
THE MOISTURE/LIFT INCREASING...HAVE SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT WHERE
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE PCPN WILL BE MORE IN THE WAY
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE VS FREEZING RAIN AND DO NOT WANT THINGS TO
SOUND SCARIER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED. HAVE OPTED AGAINST ANY
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE SFC TEMPS
ABOVE/BELOW FREEZING HEADING INTO TONIGHT AND THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF THE DRIZZLE.

HEADING INTO TUESDAY...TEMPS RISE SOUTH/NORTH IN WAA AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR CWA RIGHT AWAY IN THE MORNING...AND THE COLD FROPA
WILL BE NOTICEABLE WITH INTENSE NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING WITH
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGING 5 TO 7MB ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. NORTH WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUST
TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER AT TIMES. THE COLD FROPA WILL SCOUR THE LLVL
MOISTURE BUT FORCING ALONG BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
FLURRIES OR POSSIBLY VERY LIGHT SNOW BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE
HIGHER NORTH OF OUR CWA BASED ON UPPER DYNAMICS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE EARLY IN THE DAY IN WAA AHEAD OF FRONT AND WITH MIXING WITH
FROPA...THEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY/FALL IN THE AFTN HOURS
IN THE CAA. TUESDAY IS JUST NOT LOOKING LIKE A NICE DAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET...FOLLOWED BY INTENSE
WINDS/CAA FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE A
BAND OF SNOW THAT SPREADS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
DURING THE EVENING THEN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE A BAND OF SNOW THAT MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA.
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WHILE THE BEST
SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE WEST AND SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE AROUND A HALF
INCH.

ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL BRING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

BY THURSDAY THERE IS WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES
START TO WARM UP. THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S...STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE WARM AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ONLY FEATURE IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS AND AROUND 30 FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 546 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND THE LOW CEILINGS
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING THROUGH MID
MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL FALL AND IF IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BE
IMPACTFUL. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THINGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BE QUICK TO ISSUE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
SHOULD FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WESELY
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...WESELY



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