Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 190557
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1257 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE HAD A PESKY
AND PERSISTENT PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS PATCH OF CLOUDS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT. LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION
AND THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VERY LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEVELOPING RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM MID WEEK CONTINUE TO LOOK ON
TRACK.

EXPECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO BRUSH
EASTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT HAVE LITTLE ON THE LOCAL
WEATHER AS IT DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN FACT...EXPECT A
VERY NICE START TO THE WORK WEEK...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR JUST ABOUT EVERYONE. THIS BEAUTIFUL FALL
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED TO
CROSS THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND
CONTINUED WITH THIS MENTION IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. THAT SAID...A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF...WITH BOTH THE EC/GFS GENERATING ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN
AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE THE EC IS SLIGHTLY MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. IN FACT...THE BLENDED FORECAST TRIED TO
INCREASE CHANCE TO AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT OPTED
TO TEMPER THIS DOWN JUST A BIT UNTIL ACTUAL TIMING BECOMES A BIT
MORE CLEAR. OTHERWISE...ONLY A MODEST CHANGE IN THE UNDERLYING
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS PASSING FRONT THURSDAY AND
THEN CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...WESELY



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