Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 252321
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

YOU`VE PROBABLY NOTICED THE SKY HAS A HAZY LOOK TO IT AND IS NOT
A PURE BLUE. THIS IS DUE TO DIFFUSE SMOKE ALOFT FROM THE WRN USA
WILDFIRES BEING TRANSPORTED IN BY NW FLOW.

WATCH FOR ANOTHER EXTRA-COLORFUL SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN. CLOSER TO THE GROUND...EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON TO GRADUALLY TRACK
EASTWARD...WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED
TO SHIFT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE THEN
DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR NORTHWARD...AND INCREASED AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THAT SAID...OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION...MAKING FOR A PLEASANTLY NICE/WARM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATES ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LLVL STRENGTHENS TO 40KTS
WITH THE NOSE OF THE JET ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...AND THIS AREA SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CHC IN THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES ON THE BUFFER/EDGE OF
THE ACTIVITY.

HEADING INTO THURSDAY...MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH THE GFS FARTHER SOUTH WITH A CLOSED H7
LOW IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE NAM POSITION IS FARTHER NORTH
IN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE 12Z ECMWF IS TRENDING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN GFS POSITION. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD PROVIDE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHEREAS THE
NAM SUGGESTS A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH CHCS
INCREASING LATE AFTN/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. HARD TO
TELL AT THIS POINT IN TIME WHICH MODEL SOLUTION WILL VERIFY
HOWEVER HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION ATTM WITH THE BETTER
CHCS ARRIVING AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...BUT HAVE TRENDED READINGS UP IN THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SFC GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND EXPECT
FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR A TIME UNTIL SFC BOUNDARY
ARRIVES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INDICATE MIXING TO
AROUND H87 WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER AVERAGING 25KTS OR
SO.

EXPECT THE BETTER PCPN CHCS TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER WAVE REACH OUR
CWA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MODEL PROGGED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WITH HAIL/WIND THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGE AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEBRASKA AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS.

PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT AVERAGE 3MB THURSDAY NIGHT AND
LOOK FOR STEADY/GUSTY NORTHERLY POST FRONTAL WINDS LINGERING INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE SFC HIGH
SETTLES IN. HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND AS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE MIGRATES EAST AGAIN AND
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE
WEST COAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TRANSITIONS SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
IS MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SFC BOUNDARY POSITION TOWARD DAY 7...AS SOME
CHC FOR PCPN MAY RETURN. OVERALL TEMPS ARE LOOKING FAIRLY SEASONAL
FOR LATE SUMMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90F AND LOWS
AVERAGING IN THE 50S/60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WED EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

TONIGHT: VFR WITH JUST A FEW WISPS OF CIRROSTRATUS AROUND 25K FT.
LIGHT SE WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WED: VFR WITH SOME SCT PATCHES OF 25K FT CIRROSTRATUS. SE WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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