Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
621 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Dry conditions with mostly clear skies are in place at mid
afternoon, with satellite and upper air data showing the area set
up between systems, one working its way into the Midwest region
and the other near the WY/ID border. At the surface, it was a
breezy start to the day with northerly winds gusting around 25
MPH. Speeds have gradually tapered off for most (still an
occasional gust near 20 MPH), as higher pressure slides in from
the northwest. No big surprises with temperatures, with mid 70s to
near 80 across the area.

The primary focus for the short term period, mainly late tonight
through tomorrow evening, lies with thunderstorm chances. Models
are in pretty good agreement aloft, showing the system off to
our WNW pushing east through the period, with the mid-level trough
axis moving through the panhandle late tonight, and into the CWA
by around midday tomorrow. An accompanying sfc low looks to slide
south of the CWA tomorrow, dragging a frontal boundary through and
bringing a reinforcing shot of northerly winds for the
midday/afternoon hours.

Out west over portions of Colorado, heating of the afternoon and
upslope low level flow has resulted in the development of
thunderstorms. Similar to yesterday, activity is expected to push
east with time through the rest of the afternoon hours and into
this evening, but again there is some question with just how far
east it will push. While there will be some aid via an increasing
southerly low level jet, this is mainly across western NE/KS, and
the better upper level support is still off to the west. The
hires models vary some on just how much activity actually makes it
into our west (and how far into the CWA it goes before
diminishing), so did make a few adjustments to the PoPs (mainly
the eastward extent/timing). Some models suggest there may be a
bit of a lull between this activity and the next round more
closely tied to the mid level trough axis, showing it possibly
being closer to sunrise before its getting into NWrn portions of
the CWA. Kept the higher PoPs centered over NWrn areas late
tonight, then through tomorrow when the trough is swinging
through, have more widespread likely PoPs going, mainly during the
12-18Z timeframe. For the afternoon hours, focus should be
turning more to ESErn areas before finally pushing east of the CWA
by late afternoon, possibly early evening. The potential for
strong and at least a few severe storms remains, only the far SW
remains in the SPC Day 1 Slight Risk, the remainder of the CWA is
in the Marginal Risk area between tonight/tomorrow. Hail/wind
remain the primary hazards. Once precipitation moves out, Saturday
night is expected to be dry.

Outside of precipitation chances, expecting plenty of cloud cover
tomorrow, and confidence in highs is not high. Current forecast
calls for highs in the mid 60s NW to mid 70s far SE, but if brunt
of precip is moving through during the daytimes hours, think
it`d struggle to get to that point.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

By Sunday morning, models are in good agreement showing more
amplified upper level northwesterly flow building in across the
region, between the departing trough axis and ridging over the
western CONUS. The forecast for Sunday and Memorial Day remains
dry, not a lot of change in the pattern, though low pressure
becomes better established over the Great Lakes region. At the
surface, winds both days will generally be northwesterly, as the
CWA looks to be set up between low pressure over Ontario/Great
Lakes region and high pressure stretched to our west and
southwest. Overall, not bad for the latter part of the holiday
weekend, with high temperatures both days mainly in the mid/upper

Monday night, some models are still showing the potential for a
quick shot of precipitation across mainly SSW portions of the CWA,
along an area of increase mid level convergence, also as an upper
level jet streak swings in from the NW. Models showing it being a
narrow band, but with not all models showing QPF, kept PoPs on the
low side.

The forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday night is currently dry, but a
more unsettled pattern looks to be setting up for mid/late work
week, as the upper level ridge breaks down with systems moving in
from the West Coast. The forecast has PoPs every period Wed
afternoon through Friday, but it`ll be more periodic in nature.
Better chances for thunderstorms (vs just showers) looks to be
Wed/Thur. Highs through the Tues-Fri period remain in the 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

There could be some thunderstorms moving through the area during
the night time hours and into the morning on Saturday. MVFR clouds
will move into the area during the day on Saturday.




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