000
FXUS63 KGID 160915
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
415 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

MAIN FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND
SHOULD BE SCATTERED ACROSS THE AREA...PRIMARILY ACROSS NEBRASKA.
THERE IS A GROWING CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FOG THIS MORNING WILL BE SOUTH OF I-80.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING CAPE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INVERTED V THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME GUSTY WIND AT THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT...MAIN THREAT WILL BE
SEVERE WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAIL COULD ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WEST
COAST...A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO EJECT EASTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING.
DURING THE DAY...A LEE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OF THE VORT
MAX...AND THIS SHOULD HELP ADVECT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE FORECAST TO HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S...HENCE THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH NORTH ACROSS
NEBRASKA. DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES WILL
DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE CWA ACTUALLY EXPERIENCES THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW. IF THE FRONT GETS TOO FAR NORTH...WE COULD MISS OUT
COMPLETELY ON PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA...WHICH IS NOTEWORTHY.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AREA FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND 72 FOR A HIGH AND NEAR 50 FOR A LOW.
THURSDAY SHOULD GET UP TO THE LOWER 80S FOR A HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INLAND ON FRIDAY...AND SLOWLY CROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS OBSERVED LOCALLY. LONG TERMS
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERALLY PATTERN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE CHANCES AS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS
WILL BE RELATED TO INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA OUT OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST.

STARTING OFF FRIDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE REALIZED...WITH 850 MB TEMPS
ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH ON
FRIDAY...WEND AHEAD AND REMOVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AS WELL AS BUMPED UP HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD. BY SATURDAY...EXPECT THE APPROACHING TROUGH TO BEGIN TO
HAVE A LARGER IMPACT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL
JET FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...AND NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK FROM SPC CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA.

THEREAFTER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK...UNTIL THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...AND
MORE STABLE AIR BEGINS TO INVADE THE REGION. INITIALLY...THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR COMBINED WITH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY...THIS FRONT SHOULD DROP
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TO START OFF THE NEW
WORK WEEK...WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S FORECAST FOR BOTH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
BOTH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...AND KEPT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN MOST SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
REBOUND SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND INSTABILITY STARTS TO WANE...SO KEPT
FORECAST DRY TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL DURING THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TAF PERIOD IS THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
IN NATURE AND NOT WIDESPREAD. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING
AROUND THE TERMINAL...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE
MOMENT AND WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAF FOR NOW. CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN AMENDMENT MAY BE ISSUED LATER
THIS EVENING...IF NEEDED.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...GUERRERO