Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
the pre-dawn hours. This appears to be our best shot at rain for
the day as we are already seeing a sharp back edge of the rain
area form. With the front well southeast of the area and the main
upper energy north of the area, the forecast area is left in the
middle with lots of clouds, maybe some passing showers or even
drizzle during the day but no substantial rainfall (after the
ongoing rain). Lowered rain chances a bit during the day as a
result. We could see a brief mix of warmer temperatures just ahead
of advanced cold front later today, and with a mild start in the
50s, have raised temperatures up a bit today.

By mid-late afternoon, previously advertised sharp increase in
windspeeds is on track to move across the forecast area from west-
to-east. Timing is roughly beginning about 20z/3PM in the far
west... and clearing the eastern areas by 00z/7PM. Strong
subsidence, isallobaric component and core of winds will maximize
about by early evening with gusts over 40 mph likely and maybe up
into the 45 mph range. Temperatures will also start to drop as the
winds increase, most noticeably west of a Kearney to Phillipsburg
line. Hourly forecast temperatures reflect this non diurnal
temperature trend. The winds will howl through the evening hours
as skies clear and lows head down to the 30s for many hours.
Frost should be minimal with overnight wind, and with recent
freeze for most of the forecast area no frost headlines are

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The main story in the long term is dry weather and mild mid-
October temperatures. Broad and transitory ridge/height rises
aloft will keep rain chances at bay, and likely until next
Saturday at the earliest. Though sunny, temperatures will start
coolish Sunday, but the rest of the week is pleasant with highs in
the lower/middle 70s in general, or roughly 5-8 degrees above
normal afternoon high temperatures on average. Lots of sunshine
and low dewpoints. Good harvest weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Overnight rainfall has moved east of the area and now lower
ceilings and fog is starting to settle into the area. Expect
IFR ceilings through at least early afternoon along with lower
visibilities in fog. Though a sprinkle or some drizzle may
result, no precipitation is in the TAF at this time. A strong
front will start to clear things out by mid afternoon with
rapidly lifting ceilings by late afternoon as strong winds
overtake both KGRI/KEAR. 25G35KT winds are likely into the
evening hours before diminishing.




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