Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
525 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Quiet conditions reign early this morning, with upper air and
satellite data showing the region under northwesterly flow, set up
between a departing northern stream trough axis and low pressure
spinning over western TX. A bit of upper level cloud cover is
lingering across roughly the southeastern third of the CWA, with
the remainder of the area clear. At the surface, northwesterly
winds have built in all but the far southeastern corner of the
CWA, as a trough axis accompanying the upper level disturbance
well off to the northeast continues to swing through the Central
Plains. 3 am temperatures are on the mild side, in the upper 20s
to lower 30s.

For today/tonight, the forecast remains dry, with models in good
agreement showing continued northwesterly flow aloft, as ridging
slides into the Rockies and the upper low to the south/trough to
the northeast keep sliding off to the east of the region.
Expecting plenty of sun across the area today. Winds look to
remain northwesterly through this time frame, set up between
departing sfc low pressure and high press over much of the western
CONUS. While speeds currently are around 10 MPH, they are expected
to pick up this afternoon closer to 15-20 MPH, with gusts near 25
MPH. As far as temperatures go, didn`t make any notable changes,
still looking at well above normal highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Mid 20s are in the forecast for overnight lows tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Dry and warm conditions are expected to start the extended periods
as a ridge of high pressure transitions across the northern
plains with the southern branch of the jet stream well south of
the local area. As a result...expect a very nice mid to latter
portion of the work week with afternoon temperatures 15-25 degrees
above normal along with relatively light winds.

Conditions will change late in the extended
the subsequent upper level low in the southern jet lifts out of
the southwest and into the plains late in the weekend. With deep
moisture advecting north across the region by Sunday afternoon...
expect instability to begin to build and for a few thunderstorms
to become possible...especially across portions of north central
Kansas. This instability will then spread north through the day on
Monday...and with weak upper level forcing and ample
moisture...the chance of an isolated thunderstorm will spread into
south central Nebraska. While temperatures may be a few degrees
cooler towards the end of the extended periods due to increased
cloud cover and some precipitation around...overall...the
unseasonably warm temperatures for mid-February will continue
through the upcoming weekend and into at least the first part of
next week.

Beyond models...not surprisingly...begin to
diverge a bit...with the GFS taking another disturbance and
chance for precipitation across the local area on Tuesday...while
the EC has a much weaker and dry disturbance. As a
result...inherited some small pops in the blended guidance for
next Tuesday as well...but at this time...confidence beyond the
Monday time period is very low.

While there is no mention in the HWO...elevated fire weather
conditions are also possible across the local area - especially
Thursday and Friday afternoons - as temperatures peak across the
central plains during this time period. That said...while RH
values will approach or even reach critical thresholds both
afternoons...thanks to the light winds under the upper level
ridge...conditions will not be nearly as problematic as the
otherwise could be.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Quiet weather with VFR conditions forecast for this TAF period.
What little cloud cover passes through terminal areas will be
confined to the upper levels. Winds through the period will remain
northwesterly, with speeds at their strongest this afternoon.
Speeds of 15-20 MPH and gusts near 25 MPH will be possible, before
tapering back closer to 10 MPH this evening/overnight.




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