Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 201741
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

JUST SENT THE FIRST FORECAST UPDATE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...PRIMARILY TO ADJUST 2 WEATHER ELEMENTS:

1) BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND A SIMPLE LOOK OUT THE
WINDOW...SKY COVER WAS KNOCKED DOWN FROM PARTLY CLOUDY INTO
SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY TERRITORY. ALTHOUGH A PESKY BAND OF LOWER
STRATUS BARELY RESIDES OUTSIDE THE FAR NORTHEAST EDGES OF THE CWA
AT THIS TIME...IT SEEMS TO BE DRIFTING EVER-SO-SLOWLY AWAY WITH
TIME AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR.

2) HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED UP 1-2 DEGREES CWA-WIDE...AND VERY
POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH IN SOME SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MIXING TODAY WILL NOT
BE VERY DEEP...PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP THINGS CONTINUE TO
CREEP UPWARD FAIRLY STEADILY. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THIS FORECASTER
IS RATHER APPALLED AT THE OVERDONE SNOW COVER INITIALIZATION IN
MODELS SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...WHICH ACTUALLY THINKS THERE IS STILL
MORE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAN ACTUALLY FELL IN
THE FIRST PLACE LAST WEEKEND! ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT THE ONLY MODEL
WITH THIS SNOW COVER INITIALIZATION AFFLICTION...IT ABSOLUTELY
RENDERS SUCH MODELS USELESS FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...AND THERE
IS LIKELY AT LEAST LIMITED INFLUENCE FROM THESE MODELS ON BLENDED
MODEL SOLUTIONS AS WELL. THIS UNFORTUNATE GLITCH HAS LIKELY
CONTRIBUTED TO TEMPS ON AT LEAST A FEW OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
ENDING UP AT LEAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FORECAST. ALL THAT BEING
SAID...A LEGITIMATE LIGHT SNOW COVER OF MAYBE AROUND 1 INCH DOES
STILL EXIST IN A FEW OF OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES SUCH AS
HAMILTON/POLK/YORK...WHICH SHOULD IN FACT KEEP READINGS A BIT
COOLER THERE. IN CONCLUSION THOUGH...AM CURRENTLY CALLING FOR
HIGHS TODAY TO TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW 30S NORTHEAST/MID-30S
CENTRAL AND LOW-MID 40S IN MOST KS ZONES ALONG WITH THE FURNAS
COUNTY NEB AREA...AND CANNOT EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN THE ROOKS
COUNTY KS AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE EASTERN PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS
LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT SINCE WINDS ALOFT ARE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THAT DRIFT THROUGH...BUT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. THERE IS SOME WARM
ADVECTION...BUT IT IS FAIRLY WEAK AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO CHANGE MUCH FROM THE READINGS YESTERDAY.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DURING THE NIGHT AND EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES BY MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD IS HAVE
TAKEN OUT CHANCES FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MOISTURE
AT LOW LEVELS...BUT THERE IS STILL A FEW DEGREES SPREAD BETWEEN
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT AND THE LAYER IS A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW
THAN WHAT WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE DRIZZLE. THE TREND IN THE PAST FEW
MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOTS IN THE FORECAST THAT WE WILL NEED
TO WATCH OUT FOR INCLUDE: FIRST...DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
ON FRIDAY... SECOND...MINNESOTA STORM SYSTEM ON MONDAY THAT WILL
BRING COOLER MUCH WINDIER WEATHER BACK INTO THE PLAINS...
THIRD...POSSIBLE COLD AND SNOW AS WE NEAR THANKSGIVING.

FRIDAY...THE 00Z NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF WERE ALL CLEARLY DRY FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA WITH ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST COUNTY...MITCHELL
COUNTY...THE 00Z NAM INDICATED A 4F OR GREATER DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
IN THE LOWEST LAYERS AND WAS BOTH TOO DRY AND TOO SHALLOW WITH THE
MOISTURE TO GIVE US ANY DRIZZLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE RATHER DRY
00Z MODEL RUNS WHERE ANY MOISTURE SEEMED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WAS ENOUGH FOR US ALONG WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO THE
EAST...NORTH...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST TO PULL DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
OUT OF THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE NEW 06Z NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE
BIT BACK NORTHWEST WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ON FRIDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME PRIMARILY DRIZZLE TO OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. HAVING
ALREADY COORDINATED THE PULLING OF THE DRIZZLE OUT OF THE FORECAST
PRIOR TO 06Z NAM MODEL RUN...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW WHILE KEEPING AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL TRENDS. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A COLD BIAS IN THE NAM
DUE TO THE MODEL OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF REMAINING SNOW COVER
AND ITS IMPACT ON SFC TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THEN TURN NORTHEAST AND HEAD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES MISSING US TO
THE SOUTH AND THEN TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR US
SEEING PRECIPITATION...BUT IT IS GOOD FOR US TO SEE A NICE WARM UP
AS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
SATURDAY REALLY SHOULD BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. COOLER AIR WILL START TO FILTER
IN ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WINDS TURN BACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WE SHOULD STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND THAT WILL TRACK
EAST OF US INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MERGE WITH A COLD
CANADIAN LOW AND FORM AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS WILL BE A VERY EXPANSIVE STORM SYSTEM WITH A POTENTIALLY HUGE
REACH. SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM ALTHOUGH LIKELY HEAVIEST OVER MINNESOTA
COULD ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS...INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE KEPT THE SNOW NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
NOW. HOWEVER...THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS...WILL BE EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE SNOW AND SHOULD MAKE FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA. TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY FOR ANYONE THAT
MAY BE TRYING TO HEAD OUT EARLY FOR THANKSGIVING.

TUESDAY...WILL LIKELY BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS
ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER.
THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD INDICATE THAT THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL BE
DIGGING INTO THE PLAINS WITH LIGHT SNOW AND COLD...WHILE THE GFS IS
MUCH MUCH WARMER AND DRY. A VAST MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE ALSO WARMER AND DRY. THE ECMWF HAS A GOOD TRACK RECORD
IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAN TOWARDS THE OVERALL MODEL BLEND...WHICH IS STILL MORE MILD
AND DRY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPORTANCE OF TRAVEL THE DAY BEFORE
THANKSGIVING...PEOPLE WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE WEATHER
THIS DAY UNTIL WE CAN SEE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND INCREASED
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE...CONFIDENCE SEEMS TO HAVE
INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY PREVAILING THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CEILING-WISE...IT APPEARS THAT ANY MVFR LEVEL DECK
WOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BEYOND THE PERIOD AT THE
EARLIEST. VISIBILITY-WISE...THE MAIN CAVEAT WOULD BE WHETHER SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG HAPPENS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE VFR FOR NOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR TONIGHT MAINLY WITHIN THE LOWEST 1000 FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE AS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE ALOFT...BUT ALSO
HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL SHEAR
MAGNITUDE APPEARS TO TOP OUT AROUND 25KT VERSUS 30KT OR HIGHER.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.
AS FOR ACTUAL SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD HOLD UNDER
12KT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME...AS DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERS
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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