Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 120225

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
925 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Issued at 925 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Bumped fcst lows up a cpl degs. Winds of 6-10 kts are keeping
temps from falling as fast as if winds were lighter. Also
adjusted hourly temp curves to get them back on track. Our fcst
was cooling things too quickly vs reality. No other changes



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

It`s been a breezy, but otherwise pleasant day across the CWA,
with plenty of sunshine around. Aloft, the region is under
southwesterly flow, set up between a ridge axis departing to our
east and a trough digging into the Pac NW. At the surface, the
main ridge axis continues to slide east of the area, with
southerly winds picking up on the backside. A tightening pressure
gradient has aided in speeds getting up around 15 MPH, with gusts
at times of 20-25 MPH. It was a chilly start to the day with
morning lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and temperatures this
afternoon have climbed into the 60s to near 70 deg. The lack of
upper level disturbances and a dry atmosphere is keeping the
region precip-free.

Looking ahead to the rest of the short term period - through
Thurs night, the forecast remains a dry one. Models are in good
agreement showing the southwesterly flow aloft continuing, as that
trough remains over the west coast. There doesn`t look to be any
notable disturbances coming through, and though the forecast is
officially dry, there is a little uncertainty with that as we get
into the overnight hours Thursday night. At the surface, not
expecting a lot of change tonight/tomorrow, with southerly winds
across the CWA as an area low pressure develops over eastern CO.
Thursday night, models are showing the potential for a subtle wave
to slide to the NNW of the CWA, pushing a cold frontal boundary
south, reaching the southeastern corner by sunrise Friday...
turning the winds to the north. The models that do develop QPF for
the most part keep it NNW of the CWA, but it wouldn`t take much
of a southward trend in the models for our area to need some PoPs.
Will see how things trend.

Expecting tomorrow to be another day with plenty of sun, and a
touch warmer with highs reaching the upper 60s/near 70 in the
north to mid 70s in the southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

As mentioned above, the main cold front is expected to have
pushed through much of the CWA by sunrise Friday. While it may
sink a bit further into central/NErn KS during the day, the upper
level disturbance giving it its push has moved on, so it looks to
stall out. The daytime hours on Friday are forecast to be dry, but
cooler, with highs back in the lower/mid 60s for the majority of
the CWA.

The only period with PoPs in the forecast is Friday evening
through Saturday evening. Friday evening, how much of our CWA is
affected will depend on the placement of that surface boundary,
which becomes the focus of showers/thunderstorms as lift increases
with a ramping up southerly LLJ. There isn`t expected to be much
movement of the main surface front until late in the day Saturday,
when that system that had been over the Pac NW finally starts
moving onto the Plains. That surface front and mid/upper level
trough axis will be the main focus for precipitation, all
eventually pushing east of the CWA Saturday evening. At this
point, models showing the brunt of the instability being
along/south of the front, keeping it south of the CWA. So while
there may be a few thunderstorms with this activity, any potential
for stronger or severe storms at this point looks to remain south
of the CWA.

Sunday and into the first half of the work week is forecast to be
dry, as more zonal to slight NWrly flow sets up in the upper
levels behind this system. Sunday is the first day with the entire
area behind the cold front and under greater influence from the
high building in, and its forecast temperatures are in the mid 50s
to lower 60s. Highs look to rebound back into the lower 70s for


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Thursday)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Significant Wx: LLWS tonight 07Z-13Z.

Tonight: VFR with no clds at or below 10K ft. LLWS develops first
at EAR and expands E to GRI. SSE-S winds 7-12 kts. Confidence:

Thu: VFR with generally no clds AOB 10K ft. There is a low
probability that a few stratocu could form around 2K ft for a few
hrs around midday. LLWS ends around 13Z. S winds 10-15 kts.
Confidence: Medium




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