Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200545

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

After reviewing the latest obs...decided to downscale the mention
of precip to just a chance of sprinkles the rest of the night. The
likelihood of measuring .01" is extremely low. Sprinkles have been
occurring. We`ve seen them here at the office and at HDE/GRI.
There has even been a rumble of thunder or two in Phillips County


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Focus is on thunderstorm potential the next few hours.

A cold frontal boundary was advancing southeast today, and was
oriented from KJYR to KPHG at 20Z. Convergence along the front
will focus thunderstorm activity across the east/southeast tier or
so of our cwa for a few hours generally from 21Z to 00Z. The
primary hazards from the storms will be large hail the size of
golf balls or greater and damaging winds of 60 mph given
instability around 2000 j/kg and effective shear of 30 to 40kts.

Conditions generally dry out behind the boundary as it exits to
the southeast however we may need some small pops for a few
showers tonight along the elevated boundary in presence of mid
level frontogenesis as latest model runs suggest the potential for
this. Pressure rises behind the front average 2 to 4mb and expect
steady/gusty northwest winds into the overnight hours.

Any lingering light precipitation is expected to end by Thursday
morning as dry air and surface high pressure settles across our
region behind the boundary. Thursday is shaping up to be a
generally nice day with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Northwest
wind speeds may become sneaky breezy at times given the deeper
mixing per soundings in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Precipitation chances return at the end of the workweek as an
upper trough over the Rockies emerges onto the central and
southern plains. Rain chances return to portions of our western
zones as early as Thursday night, however the better chances for
rain across our western and southern zones favor Friday and Friday
night. Dry air to the east will bring a sharp gradient to areas
that are wet or dry and again our far west zones and mainly north
central Kansas stand the better chances for receiving rainfall.
Instability remains pretty meager and have left thunder out of the
forecast with this system.

The upper low departs Saturday and heights rise behind the
system. The weekend time frame is still looking dry, then models
are trending stronger with another wave heading into Monday, so
Monday may not remain a dry period if these trends continue. Late
Tuesday into Wednesday see precipitation chances return but there
are model differences in the track/strength of this next system
and details will be resolved as things get closer.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Significant Wx: None currently envisioned.

Overnight: VFR CIGs averaging around 11K ft along with potential
for some brief periods of sprinkles/-RA. We are noting MVFR CIGs
1000-1200 ft just NE-E of GRI. We will be monitoring this. Be
aware this cloud deck could move into GRI. Wind speeds are highly
vrbl but will average N 6-12 kts with a shift to NW toward dawn.
Confidence: Medium

Thu: VFR currently expected with 11K ft altocu departing in the
AM. There is potential for SCT015 gradually lifting to SCT025
before dissipating by 17Z. There is potential for a brief 1-3 hr
period of MVFR CIGs 12Z-15Z. Afternoon looks close to VFR SKC. NW
winds will increase and gust up to 25 kts before 17Z...then
decreasing to 9-14 kts. Confidence: Medium

Thu Eve: VFR CIGs 25-20K ft invade from the W. NW winds become NE
and diminish to under 10 kts. Confidence: High




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