Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 140613
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1213 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Adjusted the snow totals ever so slightly mainly just sliding the
1-2" and 2" snow band about 10-15 miles southwest based on
current radar trends and the HRRR being slightly further
southwest. The most likely location for the slightly higher 2" or
just a little bit over 2" band by late tonight should run from
around Hastings and Grand Island to around Hebron.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast seems reasonably on track for the snow this evening. Am
considering sliding the snowband slightly further southwest based
on the trends in the HRRR model and actual snow band location as
it`s beginning to form now over the sandhills. Any shifting of the
snow band further southwest would probably be rather minor at
only a 10 to 15 mile shift. Will continue to watch radar trends
and make possible adjustments to our snow forecast as we head
through the evening. Overall the 1-2 inches in the primary band
through the heart of our forecast area from northwest to southeast
looks good with some isolated 3 inch amounts possible. A south
wind at 5 to 15 mph averaging around 10 mph is light enough to not
have much of an impact.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Forecast is still mainly on track with a few nudges made. I
increased POPS and snow amounts a bit as there seems to be
increasing agreement in short term models. We could even see a few
three inch reports, but this depends on where the mid-level jet
streak axis winds up being with the associated low-amplitude wave.
The bulk of any snow should be late evening and early overnight.
Lows tonight will be in the 11-14 range early and will rise
overnight as anticipated as a warm front approaches. Our quick
break from the cold still on track for Sunday with highs in the
mid 30s to lower 40s, but I went a bit more pessimistic for highs
and with with CONSshort.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Arctic air make another return with more snow possible with the
cold push, with possibly some brief sleet in transition from rain
to snow. Snow amounts do not look like a whole lot, but wind
chills could be pushing -30 Monday morning. Wind chills look like
they will be in the -15 to -20 range Tuesday morning. Another
modest warmup is on the way toward the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1213 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

General overview:
The most pressing issue of the entire 24 hours comes right away
during these first few hours, as a steady band of light-moderate
snow continues for perhaps another 2-3 hours before
diminishing/ending. While sub-VFR ceiling could linger several
hours beyond the end of snow, am currently expecting a return to
VFR through at least the afternoon-early evening hours before MVFR
returns later in the evening, possibly accompanied by a brief
round of mixed precipitation. Read on for more element-specific
details...

Ceiling/visibility/precipitation trends:
As mentioned, these first 2-3 hours will feature continued steady
light to perhaps briefly moderate snow, with persistent MVFR
ceiling and MVFR-to-IFR visibility. While snow should largely end
by 08-09Z save for some lingering flurries, MVFR ceiling is
expected to persist several more hours, before scattering/lifting
to VFR especially during the afternoon-early evening. The final 6
hours of the period brings some uncertainty regarding both
ceiling and precipitation potential, but a brief band of a
rain/sleet/snow mix cannot be ruled out especially between 00-03Z,
and this has been hinted with a VCSH mention. Will also show a
return of MVFR ceiling toward the very end of the period, but this
is only moderate confidence.

Winds:
Surface winds through the majority of the period will average
near-to-below 11kt, with direction transitioning from southerly to
westerly. However late in the period Sunday evening, stronger
northwest winds will arrive with gust potential 15-20kt, and
likely a bit stronger yet just beyond the current valid period.
There are hints of a period of mentionable (30+kt) low level wind
shear starting around 00Z, but this is a bit questionable and is
also beyond the first 12 hours, so will refrain from inclusion for
now.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Pfannkuch


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