Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 160608
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1208 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

JUST PUBLISHED AN UPDATE FOR THESE NEXT 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z/6AM.
MAIN FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES WERE:

1) WIND SPEEDS WERE BEEFED UP A FEW MORE MPH...WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INTO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH STILL
HANGING ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...DESPITE A SLOW DECREASING
TREND.

2) ADDED A SMALL AREAL MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO
VALLEY/GREELEY COUNTIES IN THE FAR NORTH BASED ON EARLIER LAW
ENFORCEMENT REPORTS OF SOME TRAVEL ISSUES IN THE AREA.
CONTEMPLATED ISSUING A FORMAL ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW...BUT
GIVEN THE FAIRLY LOCALIZED NATURE OF ISSUES AND DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS...OPTED TO HIGHLIGHT INSTEAD WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT (SPSGID).

OTHERWISE...MAIN UNCERTAINTY NOT JUST TONIGHT BUT INTO THE DAY IS
WHETHER OR NOT APPRECIABLE CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE IN SOME
AREAS...OR WHETHER AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY HANG ON. MORE
ON THIS IN MAIN MORNING DISCUSSION LATER...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS OF 00Z INDICATES THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
LOW OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST. THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROPOSPHERIC DEFORMATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA FOR THE MOST PART AND AS
A RESULT...SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR AREA...A TREND
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL
THIS...WENT AHEAD AND ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH
WAS IN EFFECT FOR WEST/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z.

OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY A FEW
TWEAKS MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CENTER AROUND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW AND WIND WILL
TAPER OFF.

THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...THIS IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WITH THE UPPER LOW AT MID AFTERNOON LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SLIDING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND HAS BEEN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE
UPPER LOW ITSELF AND HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTING EAST AND NORTH WITH
TIME. THE SNOWBAND LOCATED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN
CENTERED OVER THE TRI CITIES AND UP INTO ORD AND GREELEY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST SNOW ENDED THIS MORNING
WHILE THE BAND WAS OVER OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA AND EVERYTHING
THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL DECREASING
TREND IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND SNOW INTENSITY. THE UPPER STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
DECREASING TREND IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN
CONTEMPLATED CANCELING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EARLY ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DECREASING SNOW TRENDS...BUT DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL IT EXPIRES AT 6 PM DUE TO
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THAT ARE STILL RESULTING
IN POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. AREAS WITH SNOW COVER HAVE SEEN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 1/2 MILE IN BLOWING
SNOW. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE REDUCED TO FLURRIES BY
LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN VERY
TIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING KEEPING THE WINDS UP ALL EVENING. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DECREASE BY AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY DAWN ON TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD WITH A NORTHWEST SFC WIND BEHIND THE
DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN OVER AREAS
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER. WENT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS
THAT MEASURED 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL TODAY. 925MB CLOUD COVER
MAY ALSO BE HARD TO BREAK UP ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES WHILE HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY. CLOUDS OR LACK OF CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL GENERALLY CALL FOR HIGHS AROUND OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS KANSAS AND OUR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ZONES
WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW COVER AND WHERE THE CLOUDS STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF BREAKING UP. OTHERWISE...HIGHS SHOULD BE BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS NEW SNOW COVER AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD LIES WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MID-LATE WORK WEEK TIME FRAME.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SIT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NRN MN AND ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WEST COAST. SEE A GRADUAL EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AS THAT NEXT
DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SW. MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION...AND WHILE THERE IS SOME HINT AT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PRECIP TO WORK IN FROM THE S/SW LATE IN THE
DAY...MOST KEEP THE CWA DRY...AND FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. AT
THE SURFACE...THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS FROM THE PARENT HIGH
OVER CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE SERLY FLOW
THROUGH WED AS THAT AXIS SLIDES EAST. NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE TEMP FORECAST...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.

LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS NOT THE HIGHEST...WITH MODELS
SHOWING A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GENERAL
FLOW THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS ZONAL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE
DISTURBANCES LOOKS TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...WITH MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT
WITH HOW MUCH QPF THERE IS AS A RESULT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SOME
SHOW THERE BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW...OTHERS NON ACCUMULATING
PRECIP...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH
A LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER. DEBATED THROWING A
MENTION IN THE FORECAST OF FZDZ...BUT WITH IT STILL 5 PERIODS
OUT...WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND WITH THIS FIRST AND GAIN
MORE CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER IT WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LATE THUR NIGHT/FRI COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO THE CWA...BUT THERE ARE PLENTY OF
QUESTIONS WITH ITS TRACK...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT POTENTIALLY
MISSING US TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS FOR THURS/FRI GENERALLY IN THE
30S...THOUGH SOME LOW 40S POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH.

AS WE GET INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY...THE FORECAST IS
DRY...BUT HARD TO SAY THERE IS A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THAT WHEN
THERE ARE PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT SAT/SUN STAYING
DRY THAN THEY ARE ABOUT MON. NO POINT IN STRAYING FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GRIDS UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED. SHOULD SEE A
REBOUND IN TEMPS BACK INTO THE 40S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN BOTH WIND SPEEDS/DIRECTION
AND THE FACT THAT VFR VISIBILITY SHOULD PREVAIL...UNFORTUNATELY
THERE ARE SOME QUESTION MARKS REGARDING CEILING TRENDS...INVOLVING
BOTH WHEN A RETURN TO VFR MIGHT OCCUR AND IF SO FOR HOW LONG. IN
SHORT...OPTED TO ERR A BIT MORE ON THE CAUTIOUS/PESSIMISTIC SIDE
VERSUS PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCE AND EXTEND AN MVFR CEILING THROUGH
18Z...WITH SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE TOO
LONG...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST IT MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SO FOR NOW AM
JUST PLAYING A MIDDLE-GROUND. NO MATTER WHAT CEILINGS
DO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A PRECIPITATION-FREE PERIOD. WIND-
WISE...THINGS START OUT QUITE BRISK EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF NORTHWESTERLY GUST POTENTIAL TO AROUND 30KT
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH A SLOW-BUT-STEADY DECREASING TREND WILL TAKE
PLACE DURING THE PERIOD WITH GUST POTENTIAL BY MID-DAY EASING
BELOW 20KT...AND IN FACT FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES IN PLACE BY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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