Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 300537

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1137 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Dry and cool, more seasonal conditions will settle in this week. The
pattern aloft was influenced by an expansive low pressure area
across the interior conus with low pressure centered located in
Minnesota and New Mexico. A lobe of energy was translating around
the back side of the upper midwest low with a cold frontal boundary
crossing central and eastern Nebraska and Kansas this afternoon.
The front has been noticeable with northwest wind gusts of 30 to
40 mph behind the boundary. Intermittent sprinkles or flurries
have developed today along the baroclinic zone.

Wednesday will be fairly similar to today with clouds around and
light precipitation/flurries may linger into the morning.
Although still cold compared to our recent warmth, models have
trended up with afternoon highs for Wednesday with readings
looking fairly seasonal for the end of November around the 40
degree mark. The upper low pressure system will continue to lift
out towards the Great Lakes and we remain on the back side of the
trough. The surface pressure gradient remains tight between the
departing low to the east and ridging along the Rockies/High
Plains and we are looking for another day of windy conditions
with northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Wednesday night into Thursday will be in between systems as the
upper low will be well off to the east toward Quebec and an upstream
a shortwave trough will be translating through the northern

The intermountain trough closes off in the Rockies by the end of the
week and a clipper system in the upper midwest backs in cooler air
for Friday. Flow aloft transitions more zonal over the weekend and
temperatures will trend up for a few days.

The forecast turns more interesting next week with a cold front
moving through as early as Monday per the faster GFS or Monday night
or Tuesday per the slower ECMWF. Ultimately temperatures on
Monday will be dependent upon the timing of the front and our
current forecast favors one more mild day Monday before the onset
of colder, more winter time conditions. A new cyclone is expected
to deepen over the Rockies and the Central Plains in the Tuesday
and Wednesday time frames. The extended models suggest a favorable
track for a winter storm system across our area by the middle of
next week so stay up to date on the latest trends of this
potential winter storm system.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Much of this TAF period will continue have gusty northwest winds,
at both terminal sites, with speeds around 20 mph and gusts near
30 mph possible. Periods of MVFR ceilings will remain possible
this morning, as lower level clouds pass through the region.
Outside of a few flurries, dry conditions are expected.




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