Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 141736
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Convection continues across the western part of the forecast area
this morning. Clouds continue across much of the area.

Short term models have not been doing well covering where the
current convection has been during much of the evening and overnight
hours. There have been more thunderstorms and moving more slowly.
Through daybreak expect that the thunderstorms will continue to move
to the southeast, but they should start to decrease as morning
approaches.

There is a weak frontal boundary across the northern part of the
forecast area this morning. Models have it nearly stationary or
drifting a little to the south during the day. As an upper level
wave moves into the area later this morning and afternoon, there
could be some thunderstorms developing along and north of the
boundary. The better chance will be later in the afternoon and into
the evening as the upper wave gets a little stronger. Have kept the
higher chances near the boundary in south central Nebraska during
the evening. Have kept some low PoPs for the entire area since there
are some differences in the models.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 437 AM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Overall...generally near to slightly below normal temperatures with
multiple chances for thunderstorms are expected through the extended
periods.

Global models are in fairly good agreement at the start of the
extended periods bringing a broad trough of low pressure across the
intermountain west and into the plains by mid week. This trough will
probably bring the best chance for showers and thunderstorms to the
area Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday...as an upper level
disturbance tracks into the plains. With modest 0-6 KM shear values
near 30kts...and several thousand joules of CAPE to work
with...expect the chance for severe weather as well...and not
surprisingly the western third of the local area is already in a
slight risk for severe weather. If current trends continue...
however...would expect a chance for severe weather across the entire
outlook area as this system tracks across the central plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

Thereafter...the longwave trough is expected to flatten some...with
a more zonal pattern and a few additional chances for thunderstorms
anticipated across the region through the end of the week...with
temperatures fluctuating near to slightly below normal.

.ECLIPSE...

A total Solar Eclipse will occur Monday August 21st around 1pm CDT.

While it is still almost a week out...model data has been indicating
for a few days that a weak ridge or slightly zonal to southwesterly
flow will be in place across the region to start next week. This
could mean a variety of things...including some clouds...a few
showers or a thunderstorm...along with near seasonal temperatures
Monday afternoon. Given the uncertainty...will need to continue to
wait for better consensus among the model data to have much
certainty in the forecast...but given the timing of the eclipse
during the very early afternoon hours...odds are that dry weather
should prevail next Monday morning/afternoon...although some passing
clouds cannot yet be ruled out. So in other words...stay tuned for
changes as confidence increases over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017

The surface boundary is near the KS/NE state line with easterly
winds across much of south central Nebraska. With this boundary
further south, the chances for thunderstorms this evening and
tonight over south central Nebraska has decreased and have removed
them from the TAF forecast at this time. Light easterly winds are
expected to persist through much of the forecast with cloud cover
increasing, especially to the east by morning. Did include a near
MVFR ceiling at KGRI with some patchy fog potential. Kept the TAFs
VFR for now, but will want to watch for later forecasts.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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