Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 162349
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
549 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Today:
As anticipated...Record and near record highs were achieved
across the region. Highs soared into the 70s across south central
Nebraska and north central Kansas. Despite very low RH values this
afternoon (in the teens), the winds stayed light...less than 15mph
for the most part. This kept fire weather concerns at bay.

Tonight - Friday:
Another quiet night across the area with temperatures around 30
degrees. For Friday an upper level system will move eastward
across the central CONUS with a surface trough/weak front moving through
the region. This weak front will largely only result in a wind
shift...and winds will be light at that. Records again are in
jeopardy tomorrow, but less confident in breaking them with the
trough moving through. However, it will still be close with highs
forecast near 70 and records not much above that. See the climate
section for record details.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

As Friday`s upper system moves out, ridging will again build in for
Saturday and Sunday ahead of the next system. The weekend looks
quite pleasant. Highs again in the 60s and approaching 70 on
Sunday. Winds will be stronger on Sunday out of the south, but RH
values are keeping fire weather concerns at bay for now.
Temperatures on Sunday are currently shy of record values, but are
within 5 degrees. A limiting factor could be cloud cover, so this
is something to watch over the next few days. See the climate
section for record details for Sunday.

The next upper system will approach from the west on Sunday. This
system has been fairly consistent at least the past couple of
days...but how much moisture is going to be available this far
north is a question. The chances for precip has decreased over the
past 24 hours and this looks more realistic. The best chances for
precip look to be across southern and eastern Kansas ahead of the
front on Monday. However, that being said, there have been small
changes and cannot rule out some light rain early Monday
throughout the day. Another note is that isolated thunder was
removed for the Sunday night/Monday morning period. Elevated
instability is lacking for areas north of I-70 when the precip
chances is highest.

As this system departs, the main low is cut off from the flow to
the south and the main jet is to our north. Temperatures will stay
well above normal with highs forecasted in the 60s through
Wednesday.

The next best chance for precip looks to be at the end of the
forecast period with a large upper disturbance moving over the
Central Plains. While there is good agreement that a potent system
will impact the area...there are discrepancies in timing and
location. This system could bring rain or possibly some snow if
the track is favorable. This is a system to watch over the next
few days...too early to make any solid determination on what will
happen at this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF valid
period. Skies will be clear to mostly clear and the wind will be
rather light. A front will come through Friday afternoon that will
turn the wind from west to northwest.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Feb 16 2017

Records for February 16th and 17th and 19th for Grand Island and
Hastings

February 16th Record Highs
Grand Island.....73 degrees in 1921
Hastings.........69 degrees in 1981

February 17th Record Highs
Grand Island.....71 degrees in 1981 & 1970
Hastings.........74 degrees in 1981

February 19th Record Highs
Grand Island.....72 degrees in 1930
Hastings.........70 degrees in 1996 & 1948

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Wesely
CLIMATE...Billings Wright


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