Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS63 KGID 231057
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
557 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EASTWARD FROM NEVADA TOWARDS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGHING IS DEEPENING AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

THE FIRST QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MANY HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
MID-MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS FEATURE. WHILE EACH
HIGH-RES RUN INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY...IT WAVERS...THERE SOME
RUNS AND DIMINISHED IN OTHERS. THE LATEST NAM EVEN HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACTIVITY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HAVE KEPT THE
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST THAT WERE PUT IN DURING THE
EVENING...AND WILL WATCH THROUGH MORNING...UPDATING TO REMOVE IF
NECESSARY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS THE NEXT CONCERN DURING THE DAY IS STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN CAUSING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AND BE 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AIDED BY THE
WINDS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH CAUSING A FRONT TO
APPROACH THE AREA. THE LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS NOT OVERWHELMING...BUT IT WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST THE CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY. EXPECT THERE TO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN THE EAST
DURING THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK LATER IN THE MORNING. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST IN SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE MUCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON APPROACHES 2000 J/KG AND
EXPECT THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

THE LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT DRY. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH THAT DRIFTS
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT
STILL MILD.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY. BY
MONDAY NIGHT THE FIRST WAVE COMES IN FROM THE LOW. THERE IS ALSO A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THERE WILL BE
EAST WINDS THAT BRING IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. BY MONDAY NIGHT THERE
COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE MANY
SIMILARITIES WITH THE UPPER LOW STACKING WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE LOW HAS MOVED INTO IOWA AND
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE PRECIPITATION LINGERING...BUT SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT DURING THE NIGHT.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH. THEN THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN AVIATION THREATS ARE GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.