Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250851

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
351 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Quiet conditions remain in place across the region early this
morning, with upper air data showing low amplitude ridging
continuing to the be the primary feature. Satellite imagery shows
a shortwave disturbance off to the west, which will be a player
in our area later today. Seeing a narrow area of mostly clear
skies over portions of the area, but plenty of clouds to the west-
southwest will continue streaming in this morning. At the surface,
southeasterly winds are in place, set up between high pressure
over the Great Lakes/Midwest and low pressure through the lee side
of the Rockies. Speeds are on the light side, generally between
5-10 MPH. Seeing a gradual increase in dewpoints across the area,
a trend that is expected to continue through the day today. Been a
mild night, temps at 3 am range from the mid 40s to mid 50s. Hi-
res models continue to show the potential for some fog development
near dawn, mainly in far western areas where winds are more

The main forecast concern as we get into today/tonight continues
to lie with that upper level shortwave approaching from the
west. Latest models suggest that majority of (if not all) the
12-00Z time frame will be dry. Timing between models has been in
pretty good agreement, with this disturbance cross the area late
in the day and into this evening. There has been a trend the past
few days in models pushing the better chances further east, and
the latest run is in line with that. Possible that far E-NE
portions may see some activity late in the day today, with better
chances looking to come after 00Z. Models continue to show the
better chances being just off to the east of the CWA, though
certainly can`t rule out our east being affected at least briefly,
mainly east of the HW 281 corridor. Ahead of the surface boundary
accompanying this disturbances, the continued southeasterly flow
will draw more moisture north, with a corridor of near 60 deg dpts
climbing into our eastern portions. Did bump up temperatures a
bit, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 60s in the north to
near 80 in the south. Models have been consistent showing
instability of 1500+ j/kg in that same area of higher dpts, with
deeper layer shear around 30kts. Thunderstorms that develop will
have the potential to be strong/severe, and eastern portions of
the CWA remain the SPC Marginal Risk for today. Hail/winds would
be the primary hazards.

Some uncertainty with exactly when precip totally ends for our
CWA, with a few models showing lingering chances across far
southern areas after 06Z. At this point kept the dry forecast
going. West winds will continue building in across the area
overnight, with lows expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Overview...This will be a warm and dry period predominately
dominated by an upper level ridge. High temperatures will often
range from 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Normal highs are
currently around 60 and we should be in the 70s most days. Low
temperatures are also likely to remain warm and despite begin late
October should be well above freezing. Halloween is currently
shaping up to be a warm one with highs in the 70s.

Wednesday through Friday...An upper level ridge will be located
over the plains Wednesday through Friday with the next shortwave
crossing the rockies by late Friday. Sunny, warm, and dry weather
will persist with highs generally in the 70s, but could see 80
across portions of north central Kansas.

Saturday and Sunday...A weak shortwave will track east across the
Dakotas Friday night into Saturday giving us a shot of slightly
cooler air. Any precipitation will remain well north of our
forecast area in closer proximity to the upper system. Highs
should still be in the mid to upper 60s and maybe even a few 70s
over north central Kansas.

Monday (Halloween): This currently appears to be a warm day just
ahead of another northern plains shortwave with highs in the 70s.
Uncertainty is higher than normal given the proximity of a
possible northern plains storm system nearing the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Main concern in this TAF period comes early this morning, mainly
affecting the KEAR terminal, with the potential for some low level
stratus/fog. Models are in pretty good agreement keeping better
chances west of KGRI, so have VFR conditions there throughout the
period. Models suggest that KEAR may be on the eastern fringe of
stratus/fog, so confidence in exactly how it evolves is not the
highest. Do have 5SM/BKN005 going for a few hours, with VFR
conditions then returning. Preciptiation chances later today look
to develop east of both terminal areas, so kept any mention out.




LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.