Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200552
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1152 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Dense fog is beginning to develop across the local area this
evening with several locations already at 1/2 SM or less. Because
this fog is only expected to thicken and expand in coverage
overnight...opted to update the advisory and start it immediately.
Otherwise...no significant changes to the previous forecast
necessary at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Overview...Fog and likely some dense fog will be the primary
forecast concern through Friday. There will also be some drizzle
as the stratus deck thickens at times. Thankfully the
temperatures will be above freezing with the warm cloud blanket
and thus we will not have to worry about anything freezing.

Dense Fog Possible...Given we continue to have a very low cloud
deck with visibilities of only 2 to 5 miles at mid afternoon, it
will not take much for us to drop back into dense fog after dark.
The HRRR, RAP, and SREF all indicate visibilities will again fall
off this evening into tonight, although it is difficult to
determine how widespread the dense fog will actually be. Could see
this dense fog advisory being extended later into Friday morning
if we do see the fog that we expect as it will be slow to lift.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Friday night...We will eventually cool down as a weak storm system
pushes out late Friday night and the wind becomes northwesterly.
This will allow some locations to cool down below freezing, but
any cool down below freezing will likely not occur until after we
see precipitation end. Thus will keep precipitation type as
drizzle/rain with maybe a few flurries right as any precipitation
ends. Rainfall amounts from today through Friday night will be
light and range from a trace to a couple of hundredths.

Saturday through Monday...These look like great January days
between storm systems with highs in the 40s and some sunshine.

Tuesday into Wednesday...This is when things become more
interesting with the possibility of a fairly strong winter storm
system heading out into the central or northern plains. Based on
many ensemble members, the ECMWF, GFS, and GEM models the 500mb
upper low will likely track across northern Kansas or Nebraska.
The heavier snow bands typically fall north of the 500mb low,
which would favor northern Nebraska into southern South Dakota.
Therefore, our northern zones, north of I-80, stand the best
chance of seeing some accumulating snow with this system,
primarily Tuesday into Tuesday night. However, if the system
shifts a bit further south then more of our CWA could see some
accumulating snow, and if the storm track shifts any further north
we may see little if any snow across our forecast area. There does
appear to be some wind with this system, which could will result
in blowing snow north of the low. This storm system is the primary
forecast concern in the extended period.

Thursday...Should be colder and dry behind the storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Visibility and ceilings will be poor, but it appears that
temporarily, KEAR is experiencing MVFR conditions. Do not expect
this to last long, and a return to LIFR conditions is expected
into Friday morning. There should be some small gradual
improvement by 18Z and into the afternoon on Friday as visibility
increases, and perhaps a small improvement in ceilings for KEAR,
but for the most part, conditions will be rather poor throughout
this forecast.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for NEZ039>041-046>049-
     060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Heinlein



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