Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 260558
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SATELLITE SHOWS MID-LVL OVC HEADING SE AND THIS WILL RETARD THE
TEMP FALL THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SO LOW TEMPS WERE NUDGE UP 3-4F
AND FCST SKY COVER WAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY. RADAR AND SFC OBS
SHOW FLURRY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AND LIMITED TO MAINLY THE SE 1/4
OF THE FCST AREA. HJH DROPPED BRIEFLY TO 2.5 MI AT 1135 PM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME FLURRIES OVER THE SANDHILLS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION INTO THE WRN PART OF THE FCST AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE MAIN
BAND...BUT EVEN THOSE ARE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IS HOW QUICKLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAP AND THE WRF BOTH INDICATE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AN AFTERNOON EVENT AND BE DONE BEFORE THIS
EVENING. EVEN THE NAM AND THE GFS HAS IT ENDING BEFORE 00Z. WILL
START THE EVENING WITH A DRY FORECAST.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS OUT OF THE AREA. SINCE THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THE COLD AIR HAS ALREADY STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COOLER NOW THAN
EARLIER. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PLUMMET TONIGHT WITH THE
DIMINISHING CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR
THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CENTERS AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HEADING INTO THE LONG TERM...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST PROVIDING OUR WINTER WEATHER FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES TO
TREK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAME AND THE SECOND HITTING MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA NEVADA BORDER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW SLIGHTLY
EAST. THE FIRST ROUND OF MID LEVEL WAVES WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE THROUGH
THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE PARENT LOW SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE WAVE...WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
FUEL PLENTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE GFS
IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH AT LEAST SOME FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALONG ITS BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH
THIS IS NOT A MAJOR SYNOPTIC SETUP...BUT RATHER A MINOR
WAVE...SEVERAL KEY COMPONENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER TO FORM A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT
LEANING TOWARDS BETTER LIFT OVER KANSAS...PLACED HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...POSSIBLY ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH.

THE NEXT SYSTEM SLIDES THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND IS SOMEWHAT
MORE INTRIGUING. WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS ACROSS
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS...THE MID LEVEL LOW SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND DAKOTAS. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AGAIN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IS BETTER IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE WEEKEND STORM. AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DRAG ACROSS THE
CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...ITS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
AMOUNTS...BUT RIGHT NOW MODELS FOCUS HEAVIER BANDS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM...WITH AT LEAST
TWO SHOTS OF REINFORCING COLD AIR...AND LITTLE TO ANY WARM UPS. BOTH
COLD FRONTS...SUNDAY AND TUESDAY BRING VERY COLD 850 MB AIR TO THE
REGION...THE COLDER OF THE TWO ON TUESDAY. 850 TEMPERATURES DIP TO
NEAR 15 DEGREES BELOW BY WEDNESDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REST OF TONIGHT: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR...BUT TRENDING MORE
TOWARD VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS 2000-2500 FT REMAIN BUT ARE NOT SOLID.
EAR HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THRU 09Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CIGS AROUND 10K FT. N WINDS WILL CONT GUSTING TO
NEAR 30 KTS AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: SOME SCT STRATOCU MAY REMAIN THRU THE MORNING. THERE IS A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT OCCURS WITH THE MID-LVL CIGS AROUND 10K
FT AS THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE VS WHAT IS ACTUALLY
OCCURRING ON SATELLITE. SO WHILE WE HAVE INDICATED SKC...WE MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE SOME SCT-BKN 10K FT CLOUDS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS.
GUSTINESS ENDS WITH N WINDS SETTLING AROUND 15 KTS. CONFIDENCE:
MEDIUM

THU EVE: VFR SKC. WINDS DECREASE BELOW 10 KTS AND SHIFT TO NE.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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