888
FXUS63 KGID 081736
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms may occur on Thursday with sufficient
  CAPE, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates.

- High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to the upper
  90s. Thursday will be the warmest day with some areas
  experiencing heat index values near or slightly above 100
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Today and tonight...

An upper trough extends from Canada to the Midwest and an upper
ridge is over the southwest part of the country. Showers and storms
associated with lift from the upper trough are currently moving
southeastward across areas generally east of Highway 281.
Temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas are currently in the 60s and 70s. The showers and
storms are expected to clear out of the area by this afternoon.
Temperatures today will warm up into the mid 80s to mid 90s with
light winds. Winds tonight will mostly be out of the southeast to
south with low temperatures in the low to upper 60s. An upper
shortwave moving over the area may result in showers and
thunderstorms (around a 15% chance) this evening into tonight. These
storms are not expected to be severe.

Wednesday through Thursday night...

South central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas will be
on the backside of an upper trough on Wednesday. Mostly southerly
winds will be in place with temperatures warming up into the mid 80s
to the mid 90s. There is a slight chance (15% to near 30%) of
showers and storms Wednesday evening and night as a shortwave passes
near the area. Southerly winds will be across the area Wednesday
night with low temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Temperatures
on Thursday will warm up into the mid 80s to upper 90s. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be in the upper 50s to lower 70s. A
shortwave trough is expected to pass over the area Thursday into
Thursday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
afternoon will be around 15% to 25% and will increase to around 60%
Thursday evening and night. Sufficient CAPE, wind shear, and mid-
level lapse rates are expected so some of the storms may be strong
to severe.

Friday through Monday...

A cold front associated with an upper trough will move into south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday.
This front will result in high temperatures on Friday in the upper
70s to low 90s with northerly winds. Low temperatures Friday night
will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s. There is a 15% to around 30%
chance of showers and storms during the day on Friday. Chances
increase to around 25% to 50% Friday evening and night. A surface
high will be centered to the east of the area on Saturday with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s with southerly
winds. Temperatures will warm up into the mid 80s to low 90s on
Sunday with low temperatures Sunday night in the low to mid/upper
60s. Winds will increase out of the south on Monday as an upper
trough approaches the region. Temperatures will continue to warm up
on Monday with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

We have some models hinting at isolated thunderstorms mainly
late tonight after 3 AM and possibly lasting through mid morning
on Wednesday. Will continue to keep an eye on the latest model
runs as they come in, but am considering a slight bump up in our
POPs late tonight above the current 20%. Central and
northeastern zones currently are the more favored zones for late
night thunderstorms. Most models keep us dry today with clear to
mostly clear skies along with light and variable winds. VFR
conditions are likely to prevail, with again just that small
chance for a thunderstorm late tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Wesely