Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262120
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...THIS PROLONGED WARM SPELL IS PEAKING TODAY-TOMORROW WITH
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH THAT "COULD" THREATEN RECORD HIGHS...

ALOFT: NW FLOW REMAINS THRU TOMORROW. THE ANOMALOUS WRN USA RIDGE
/500 MB HEIGHTS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ WILL GET
SHUNTED EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE LOW OFF CA OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHWARD.

SURFACE: ANOTHER CLIPPER WAS TO THE E OF THE FCST AREA. ITS VERY
WEAK COOL FRONT WILL EASE INTO SD/NEB/KS FROM NW-SE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE E TOMORROW...AS THE
NEXT LOW ORGANIZES OVER ALBERTA. THIS WILL PUT THE FCST AREA IN
THE WARM SECTOR AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF ANOMALOUS
WARMTH.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON: SLACKENING WINDS SO GET OUT AND ENJOY IT
IF YOU CAN! BIKES...WALKS...CAR WASHING ETC. STILL SEVERAL DEGS
SHY OF RECORDS.

TONIGHT: OUTSIDE OF THE TRI-CITIES...TEMPS WERE LOWERED SEVERAL
DEGS BELOW THE PREVIOUS FCST. IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS. SFC
RIDGE/A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR CALM WINDS AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE.

TUE: INCREDIBLE! AND EVEN BETTER THAN TODAY WITH LESS WIND.

THE MAIN QUESTION: ARE WE WARM ENOUGH? IT IS HARD TO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH EXCESSES /IE - HIGH TEMPS 30F ABOVE NORMAL/
WITH FCST GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTING IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
TODAY. AND UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW DEEPLY WE MIX INTO A POOL OF VERY
WARM 850 MB TEMPS DOES NOT HELP. OUR WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE
THE SAME...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A PERSISTENCE FCST COULD
BURN US.

USED A 50-50 BLEND OF 06Z/12Z CONSENSUS OF MOS DWPTS 21Z-00Z.
THIS IS NOT AS LOW AS MOS GUIDE /WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING BEST
LATELY/ DUE TO EXPECTED SSE WIND DIRECTION.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER RIDGE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIR
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
STILL THINK THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S...BUT THE HIGHS COULD BE A LITTLE
EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN IS TYPICAL. COOLER AIR AND A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BRING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT THE GFS
HAS IT FURTHER NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT HAVE THE BETTER
CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN PART. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
NEXT QUESTION BECOMES WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK AS THOUGH THERE WOULD BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTHWEST AND
MAYBE RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTHEAST. ON SATURDAY SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM A LITTLE AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET RAIN OR SNOW FOR A WHILE.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH THAT EXPECT ALL
SNOW.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND HELPS TO CLEAR SKIES OUT. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS A
LITTLE WARM ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP...BUT ONLY A
LITTLE...ABOUT BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR SKC WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE SMALL PATCHES OF
CIRROSTRATUS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS BUT GUSTINESS WILL
END AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TONIGHT: VFR SKC. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BECOME LGT AND VRBL.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

TUE THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. LGT AND VAR WINDS WILL BECOME SSE UNDER 10
KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

AFTER 19 STRAIGHT DAYS WITH THE AVERAGE DAILY TEMP BELOW NORMAL
/DEC 27TH-JAN 13TH/ WE HAVE FLIPPED TO THE OTHER SIDE WITH A
LENGTHY STRETCH OF WARMER TO MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. THIS
WARM SPELL BEGAN BACK ON THE 14TH. THIS CAN/T LAST FOREVER AND WE
WILL BE COMPENSATED ON THE COLD SIDE SOMETIME IN FEB. SO ENJOY IT
WHILE WE HAVE IT.

LISTED BELOW ARE POTENTIALLY VULNERABLE RECORDS. FORECASTING TEMPS
THIS FAR ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT EASY...AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS TO END UP EVEN WARMER THAN FCST. LISTED
BELOW ARE THE RECORD HIGHS VS THE CURRENT FCST.

TUE 1/27
GRI: 68 IN 1934. FCST: 64
HSI: 67 IN 1934. FCST: 66

WED 1/28
GRI: 63 IN 1986. FCST: 60
HSI: 69 IN 1931. FCST: 62

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
CLIMATE...HALBLAUB/ADP/PFANNKUCH


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