Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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779
FXUS63 KGID 231740
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 453 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Foggy conditions are starting to improve across the northern
portions of the forecast area this morning as modeled by the
HRRR...and for this reason...decided to let the fog advisory go a
bit early as widespread areas of dense fog are no longer
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

A warm front will continue to lift northward into the Dakotas
today, with one more summer-like afternoon anticipated across the
region. As this front lifts north...expect an area of low pressure
to deepen on the lee side of the Rockies...resulting in a tight
pressure gradient across the local area. This will result in a
breezy/windy afternoon across the region...with 30 to 35 mph wind
gusts expected at times. In addition...with the warm southerly
flow...temperatures should have no problem soaring into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon hours...or about 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year.

As we transition into the late afternoon/evening hours...expect
the warm front to our north to begin to transition and track
southeastward towards the local area as a cold front...resulting
in increasing clouds and a chance for showers and thunderstorms...
especially during the late afternoon through overnight hours. In
addition...with continued breezy conditions expected ahead of this
front...expect one more mild night across the region, with low
temperatures bottoming out near or just below 70 degrees in spots.
While widespread severe storms are not anticipated...there could
be a strong thunderstorm or two ahead of the approaching cold front
as instability increases during the overnight hours and shear
values near 40kts are forecast by early Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

An upper level low pressure system in the northern Rockies is
expected to move into the northern plains Saturday and Saturday
night. A cold front moves into the forecast area Saturday morning.
Thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the front during the
day. The best chances for thunderstorms appear to be in the eastern
part of the forecast area. The front will be in the eastern part of
the area during the afternoon and there is MUCAPE over 3000 j/kg
during the afternoon. The CAPE decreases during the late afternoon
and into the evening. The front moves to the east during the evening
and thunderstorms should move out of the area during the overnight
hours.

After the cold front moves out of the area a cool surface high
settles into the area through Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny,
winds will be fairly light and temperatures will be cooler with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. After the surface high moves to
the east, winds will turn to the south and there will be a warming
trend Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2016

General overview:
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and precip-free weather
through the first half of the period with only breezy south
winds. Then, confidence in the details diminishes during the
latter 12 hours with increasing potential for sub-VFR ceiling and
a chance for isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
area. Read on for more element-specific details...

Ceiling/visibility:
Confidence is VFR is very high for both ceiling/visibility
through at least the first half of the period, and remains fairly
high for VFR visibility throughout. However, compared to previous
TAF issuance, there is more evidence/concern for at least MVFR and
possibly even IFR ceiling forming especially after 09z Saturday
morning. For now, will run with MVFR to start with.

Surface winds and low level wind shear (LLWS):
At the surface, winds will actually remain fairly consistent
through the vast majority of the period from a southerly
direction, although toward the very end of the period KEAR may
start becoming more westerly behind a passing front. Starting off
this afternoon, rather breezy speeds with gust potential to around
25kt or slightly higher. Breezes will ease somewhat overnight, but
still remain steady. Focusing just above the surface, yet another
night of marginal LLWS is anticipated and have introduced this
from 04z-12z as the magnitude of shear between the surface and
roughly 1200 ft averages around 30kt.

Precipitation/thunderstorms:
Although it is far too soon to introduce any prevailing/TEMPO
groups, there is a halfway decent chance of shower/thunderstorm
activity at least in the general area especially from around 09z
onward, and thus have introduced a generic "vicinity" (VCTS)
group. Cannot rule out some small hail/gusty winds in the
strongest storms.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Rossi
SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Pfannkuch



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