Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 140559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WE UNDER-ESTIMATED THE WINTRY ASPECT OF THIS
STRONG SPRING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS COLDER AIR SLAMMED INTO THE
AREA BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION
ZONE EVIDENT AT 700 MILLIBARS AND WELL-CAPTURED BY MODELS SUCH AS
THE RAP13...HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY WIDE BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...WITH SOME
SLEET ON ITS LEADING EDGE. AS OF THIS WRITING...AND BASED ON
SEVERAL MAINLY UNOFFICIAL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY...MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA HAS RECEIVED A GENERAL 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH LIKELY SOME LOCALLY HIGHER EXCEPTIONS POSSIBLE...WHILE
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA HAS THUS FAR OBSERVED ONLY A
DUSTING IF ANYTHING AT ALL...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET HELD ON
LONGER AHEAD OF THE MAIN DEFORMATION BAND. ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SAVE FOR THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO WITHIN
THE MAIN SNOW BAND...HAS LONG SINCE RE- FOCUSED WELL TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WHERE SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE
KS/MO BORDER AREA.

AS OF 2130Z...TEMPS ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA HAVE CRASHED INTO
THE 30-36 RANGE...AS THE MAIN DEFORMATION SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS ITS CENTRAL AXIS SLIDES SOUTHEAST ROUGHLY
ALONG AN AXIS FROM PHILLIPSBURG-MINDEN-FULLERTON BUT EXTENDING 1-2
COUNTIES ON EITHER SIDE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A VERY
ACTIVE...BROAD TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH ONE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE HEART OF THE LOCAL AREA
AT THIS TIME...WHILE UPSTREAM THE LARGER PARENT TROUGH AXIS
GENERALLY EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM ND TO THE 4-CORNERS REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG NORTH WINDS HAVE AVERAGED SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 25-35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ACROSS THE
CWA...OWING TO STRONG PRESSURE RISES TO THE NORTHWEST OF A ROUGHLY
996 MILLIBAR ELONGATED LOW STRETCHED FROM OK TO NORTH CENTRAL MO.

LOOKING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND STARTING
WITH HEADLINES...HAVE TACKED A FEW MORE COUNTIES ONTO THE
EARLIER-ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY VALID THROUGH 8PM...TO
HOPEFULLY CAPTURE THE MOST SOLID AREA OF 1-2+ INCH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS. CERTAINLY THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THIS HEADLINE MAY BE DROPPED A LITTLE EARLY AS
ALREADY THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION SNOW IS VACATING THE
DAWSON/GOSPER COUNTY AREA. GIVEN THAT STRONG WINDS WILL LAST
LONGER THAN THE SNOW IN SOME AREAS...THE ORIGINAL CWA-WIDE WIND
ADVISORY WAS LEFT INTACT THROUGH 10 PM...AND EVEN THEN SOME PLACES
MAY STILL BE FLIRTING WITH 30 MPH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. AS FOR NEW
SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...EXPECT A GENERAL 1-2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST CWA BEFORE THE
DEFORMATION BAND EXITS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA NO LATER THAN THE
9PM-MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME. AFTER 06Z/1AM...LINGERED ONLY A LOW 20-30
POP FOR AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING PRIMARLY IN KS ZONES...BUT BY THEN
IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THE ENTIRE CWA IS SNOW-FREE AS THE MAIN
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY
SUNRISE...SUSTAINED NORTH WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY KEEPS BUILDING IN. HAVE LOW TEMPS AIMED
INTO THE 25-29 RANGE MOST SPOTS...HELD UP BY THE WINDS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER.

BRIEFLY TURNING TO THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY...TEMPS ARE A BIG
QUESTION MARK GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW COVER...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
AREAS. SHAVED AT LEAST 2-5 DEGREES OFF PREVIOUS VALUES AND MAYBE
NOT ENOUGH...BUT NOW CALLING FOR MOST AREAS TO TOP OUT 41-45 AS A
BEST-GUESS...AND EVEN THIS MAY DEPEND ON SOME AFTERNOON SUN
BREAKING OUT AFTER A RATHER CLOUDY START. ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY...AND AM NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIP...DID ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES TO THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AND AS
HINTED BY THE PREVIOUS NIGHT SHIFT FORECASTER...AS STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES DEVELOP UNDER THE HEART OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15-20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS...WITH SOME SLACKENING LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DEPART/SLIDE EAST MONDAY NIGHT
WITH RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ITS WAKE.  SFC HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST SLIDE TO THE EAST
WHILE THE HIGH PLAINS LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  NIGHTTIME
TEMPS STILL WILL BE UNSEASONALLY COLD WITH LOWS BELOW
FREEZING...THEN WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONTAL
LIFTS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH
THE SFC LOW THAN THE NAM TUESDAY AFTN...WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS PROGGED DURING THE AFTN.  IN THE DRY...WARMING AIRMASS AND
INCREASING WINDS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND TRENDS/DEPTH OF MIXING.
ALSO...THE RECENT PCPN MAY IMPACT THE FIRE FUELS AND THINGS ARE
STARTING TO SLOWLY GREEN UP WITH SPRING SO FUELS WILL ALSO NEED TO
BE MONITORED.

THE WARMUP EARLY/MID WEEK WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THE GFS
IS THE QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN OTHER MODELS AND WILL GO
WITH A BLEND/ENSEMBLE FOR TIMING ATTM.  THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT ONTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONUS.  WHILE THE MAIN CIRCULATION IS PROGGED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECONDARY
CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN COLORADO AND LIFTING OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
YET...BUT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVING ACROSS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY CHCS FOR PCPN RETURN IN PRESENCE OF GOOD MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.  WITH THE COOLING AIRMASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MIX
OF R/S CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  PRECIPITATION CHCS CARRY INTO THE DAY
ON THURSDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH...WITH CHCS
DIMINISHING THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE MORE SO BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE MID WEEK STORM
MOVING OUT...AS WELL AS HANDLING OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS MOVING IN FM
THE PACIFIC AND DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM EXTENDED INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI TAF THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SNOW HAS EXITED THE AREA...BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE
STOUT FOR SOME TIME...BUT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX ENOUGH BY EARLY EVENING MONDAY TO ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO
FINALLY DIMINISH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLE OR FLURRIES LATE AFTERNOON. THE
CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH THAT THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



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