Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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745
FXUS63 KGID 030011
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
611 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THIS STORM HAS LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS ACROSS MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AND THERE WILL BE MANY SITES REPORTING OVER ONE FOOT
OF SNOW BY THE TIME THE SNOW ENDS. WE HAVE BEEN SEEING AN OVERALL
DECREASING TREND IN THE AREA OF MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...AT 330 PM...A PERSISTENT NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUED TO BE PARKED OVER HASTINGS AND GRAND ISLAND AND WAS
PRODUCING WHAT IS LIKELY 1 INCH AN HOUR SNOWFALL. THIS IS THE
HEART OF THE REMAINING DEFORMATION SNOW BAND IN OUR CWA AND IT
JUST SO HAPPENS TO BE RATHER STATIONARY OVER HASTINGS AND GRAND
ISLAND IN A NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTATION. COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW
SITES TOP 15 INCHES BEFORE SNOW COMES TO AN END LATER THIS
EVENING.

THE OVERALL DECREASING SNOWFALL TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE THE DECREASING SNOWFALL
RATES...WE DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD AND WINTER STORM
HEADLINES THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE PRIMARILY TO THE EXPECTATION OF
CONTINUED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ALONG WITH POOR
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...EVEN BY 6 AM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THE WIND WILL STILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 MPH. THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME DRIFTING
SNOW IN MANY AREAS ALL THROUGH THE NIGHT EVEN BEYOND THE EXPECTED
END TIME OF THE CURRENT WARNINGS. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE GRADUAL.

WEDNESDAY...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE PASSED ONTO OUR NORTHEAST
AND ALL SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND THUS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER HOVERING AROUND
15 MPH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 20S
WITH SO MUCH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND THE COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE BIG STORY IS IT WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH NO REAL STORM
SYSTEMS TO SPEAK OF. PERHAPS A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT
OVERALL MOST AREAS WILL SEE A NICE DRY STRETCH TO DIG OUT.

THE SECOND STORY OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE WARM UP FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERFECTLY TIMED FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW THE FRESH SNOW WILL HINDER THE WARM UP AND
HAVE ELECTED TO GO BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES WITH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. YET WITH A GOOD WESTERLY
WIND COMPONENT AND WARMER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...BELIEVE THAT WE
SHOULD DO SOME MELTING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

THE SNOW IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO
BOTH VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
WIND WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER
TO 15 MPH BY DAWN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TOMORROW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 501 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

ALTHOUGH WE ARE FROM CERTAIN EXACTLY HOW STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
WILL VERIFY (MEASURING WIND-DRIVEN SNOW CAN BE A VERY SUBJECTIVE
MATTER AFTER ALL)...WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO
END UP SOMEWHERE IN THE 8-15" RANGE. SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR TWO
PRIMARY CLIMATE RECORDS SITES /GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS/
SOMETHING AROUND 12-14" COULD STILL OCCUR. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...OBVIOUSLY THIS WOULD RANK UP THERE AMONG THE BIGGEST
2-DAY/48-HOUR-OR-LESS SNOW EVENTS OF THE LAST FEW DECADES. BELOW
ARE THE TOP-5 BIGGEST 2-DAY SNOWS AT HASTINGS IN THE LAST 20 YEARS
(SINCE 1996). UNFORTUNATELY...THE DATABASE FOR HISTORICAL GRAND
ISLAND SNOWFALL DATA IS EXPERIENCING A GLITCH THIS MORNING AND IS
UNAVAILABLE.

..HASTINGS (TOP-5 TWO-DAY SNOW EVENTS SINCE 1996)..
1) 20.3 INCHES...MARCH 19-20, 2006
2) 17.4 INCHES...OCT. 25-26, 1997
3) 14.6 INCHES...JAN. 4-5, 2005
4) 11.9 INCHES...JAN. 30-31, 2002
5) 11.0 INCHES...JAN. 9-10, 2011 AND FEB. 3-4, 2012

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>085.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NEZ086-087.

KS...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ005-006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ007-017-
     018.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH



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