Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 122105
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

...Today`s Snow Potential was an Under-Achiever but There are a
Couple More Opportunities for 1 to maybe 2" Followed by Brutal
Wind Chills that Could Near -30F N of I-80...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Hazardous Weather: None.

Aloft: NW flow was over the Plns with a weak shortwave trof over
CO that was headed for TX. The flow will remain NW thru tomorrow
but amplify with the next weak trof diving into MT by 00Z/Sun.

Surface: Arctic high pres was Sask/ND with a ridge axis extending
S to TX. This high will slowly slide SE across the Dakota`s
tonight and into the IA tomorrow.

There has been quite a bit on radar...but snow has struggled reach
the ground due to the low-lvl dry air. We did see a couple bursts
of light snow at EAR and PHG with vsbys at both locations briefly
dropping below 2 miles. It`s impossible to predict when and where
this occurs. ODX is down to 3SM at 253 PM.

Some minor adjustments to short-term POPs will be possible as we
monitor the trends thru this eve.

Lowered snow amts in the fcst to "little or none".

Tonight: The threat for light snow or flurries will end this eve
leaving mostly cldy skies. Lows will be a couple degs either side
of zero.

Sat: Partly to mostly cldy. Another very cold day with highs only
in the teens. This is 20F below normal.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Potentially Hazardous Weather: Light snow potential Sat night and
again Sunday night. Then brutally cold wind chills Tue and Wed
mornings.

Aloft: Highly amplified NW flow will cont thru Tue...but the W
coast ridge is fcst to move E and deamplify as a trof moves into
the Wrn USA Tue. Multi-model and ensemble spaghetti plots show
significant spread with what remains of this trof as it approaches
and moves over the Plns Wed-Thu...with some guidance fcstg a
closed low to form anywhere from ND to NM! Compare/overlay the 144h
EC/GFS/GEM. Unbelievable! And the prvs runs were similar.

As long as one of those solutions verify...our mid-week wx should
be quiet. But with that kind of uncertainty...nothing is a lock.
Be sure to follow later fcsts as this situation resolves itself.

A pattern change is still expected as a more sig trof moves into
the W Thu...establishing a Wrn trof/Ern ridge. And signals are
currently strong that this pattern could cont late into the month.

As for the shortwave trofs...the trof over MT at 00Z/Sun will
dive SSE and cross Neb/KS from 06Z-18Z/Sun. Meanwhile...the next
trof over Sask/MB will drop S and thru here Mon with an upr low
forming over WI.

Temps: slowly rising Sat night then a one day interruption to
this arctic cold spell with temps surging back into the 30s/40s
Sun. An arctic front will follow Sun night and it`s back into the
deep freeze Mon-Wed with sub-zero lows Tue and Wed mornings. Wed
daytime the cold eases...then temps should turn above normal Thu-
Fri.

Our winds may not be high enough in CAA Sun night into Mon.
Something for futures shifts to consider.

Bitter Cold: based on what we have in the fcst now (WCI -20 to
-28F)...it is probable we will need to issue a Wind Chill Advisory
 for much of S-cntrl Neb Mon night into Tue AM. Another one may be
 needed for Tue night into Wed AM from the Tri-Cities N and E.
 This is preliminary and refinements are likely with future fcsts.
 (Pardon the formatting issue).

Precip: We have a couple batches of light snow in the offing Sat
night with the 1st shortwave trof interacting with a warm front.
The 2nd batch will be Sun night with the next arctic cold front.
Models vary widely with amts and locations...but there is enough
of a consensus to suggest parts of the CWA will see 1-2".

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Significant Wx: Potential for 1-3 hrs of IFR -SN until 02Z.

This Afternoon: VFR CIGs 4-7K ft but there is significant
uncertainty on VSBYs and WX. Confidence is fairly high that both
terminals will see some VFR flurries...but there is potential for
MVFR OR IFR -SN for a brief time. Did bring EAR down to MVFR CIGs
but for now uncertainty is too great to include low VSBYs. Watch
for amendments and follow the METARs. Lgt NE winds under 10 kts.
Confidence: Medium

Tonight: Uncertainty remains on coverage of -SN...but potential
for sub-VFR conds should end by 03Z. One potential complication is
CIGs. Do they remain MVFR behind the SN or even drop to IFR at
EAR? For now indicated improvement to VFR...but that could chg
with later TAFs. Lgt NE winds. Confidence: Medium

Sat thru 18Z: VFR CIGs around 4K ft. Lgt/vrbl winds as winds
gradually shift from N to S. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Kelley



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