Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 192310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
610 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

With lingering light showers in northern Kansas departing by late
morning, temperatures have rebounded quickly. Sufficient mixing
from aloft brought down relatively dry air and occasional gusty
winds leading to lower dewpoints across the area helping temps to
warm up a couple degrees more than anticipated. Diurnally driven
cumulus have also developed but should dissipate once the sun

Tuesday brings our next chance for severe weather mainly for
southwestern portions of the area. With a marginal risk in place
and a slight risk just on the fringe of the CWA. An isolated
thunderstorm or two may develop in the vicinity of the triple-
point with more spotty shower development possible along the warm
front as it drifts northward before stalling out just south of

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

Wednesday looks to provide the best potential for severe storms
over the next several days with much of the area in a slight
risk for severe weather. A cold front is forecast to move across
the area late afternoon into the evening hours. This will serve as
the primary lifting mechanism for storms late afternoon and
evening. With 2500-3500 j/kg of MUCAPE and 35-40 kt of bulk shear
in place strong to severe storms are possible if they develop
before the front exits our area to the east.

Thursday the front stalls out and lifts back into the area
providing support for additional thunderstorms. At least
marginally severe storms are possible. Although a few model
differences exist, am generally expecting the front to remain
stalled out across the area through the day Friday with additional
rain showers and thunderstorms possible.

Saturday through Monday look to be much cooler with highs in the
70s and low 80s across the area. Isolated chances for showers are
possible Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

VFR conditions are forecast for both KGRI and KEAR through the
forecast period. Light winds and scattered clouds. Weak wind
shift will slip through the area tomorrow afternoon.




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