Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 200911
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
411 AM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The main concerns will be stratus this morning and some light shower
activity possible in the east today, along with some thunderstorm
chances in our southwest late tonight.

We could be socked in for a good chunk of the day with stratus as
low-level sky cover has filled in for most of the area. Showers now
look possible in the eastern CWA due to insolation occurring near an
axis of some mid-level frontogenetic forcing. This forcing should
move off to the east by late afternoon and any showers left should
die with the sunset to the east. This is not universally recognized
among short term hi res models, but the HRRR has been consistently
pointing toward this. The NAM indicates this potential slightly
farther east, just outside of the CWA. This is enough to include our
far east for POPs, but I left out thunder as we lack sufficient
instability.

Still looks like we could get the remnants of an MCS in our
southwestern CWA late tonight. Thunderstorms will erupt along the
surface trough/warm front in the lee of the Rocky Mountains. These
thunderstorms should move east this afternoon/evening, enhanced by a
developing low-level jet. Most models indicate that the theta-e axis
should stay mainly west of the CWA, and may just make it into our
southwest. Enough for me to keep slight chances of thunderstorms in
our southwest. Continued the mention of some patchy fog late tonight
as there is some indication of this with the SREF, but this signal
is trending weaker compared to 24 hours ago.

I generally like superblend temperatures for highs and lows and went
with mid to upper 60s for highs and mid 50s for lows tonight. Dew
points should steadily increase into the 50s tonight with increased
moisture flux, adding to the addition of patchy fog for late
tonight. There is an outside chance that we could get some
strongerwind gusts in our southwest, but the chances are so slim
that I will likely not include this in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

There is at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day. At this
time...confidence is highest in Sunday night being the best
opportunity for widespread thunderstorms...with a squall line
expected to sweep across parts of the outlook area. Some storms
could be strong to severe...with damaging winds and hail exceeding
the size of quarters.

Other storms could be to be strong or severe Monday through
Thursday...but forecast uncertainty is too great to identify any
specific time periods or locations. As these timeframes approach...
the threat for strong or severe storms will come more into focus.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Ceilings will soon lower as the stratus moves in, lower in KEAR
first. Visibility is a dice roll as lower visibility does not seem
to be appearing right away with the introduction of stratus, so I
went a little easier on any visibility reduction in this forecast.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Halblaub
AVIATION...Heinlein



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