Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 121109

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
609 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Seasonably cool...northwesterly flow...will continue across the
region through the short term periods. Expect the weak disturbance
to our southwest to track mainly south of the local area as it
dissipates over the next few hours. For the daytime hours...quite
a bit of uncertainty in model data so a weak boundary forecast to
be across the local through the afternoon hours. While model data
is all over the place with initiation of convection along this
boundary by mid afternoon...with mainly clear skies in place to
start the day...expect some primarily diurnally driven convection
to initiate along the boundary for areas primarily along and west
of highway 281...which should then dissipate by early evening.
With this added cloud cover...expect afternoon temperatures to be
a degree or two below Fridays readings...and overall...very
pleasant for mid-August.

By early evening...expect a fairly pronounced upper level low in
the aforementioned upper level flow to rapidly progress
southeastward...spreading showers and thunderstorms across a
widespread portion of the local area during the late evening
through overnight hours. While there will be a small chance for a
few severe storms...expect this chance to be primarily limited to
areas along and west of highway 183...where the instability will
be greatest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

There will be variety in the pattern during the period. There will
generally be northwest flow, but there is a small break in that with
a ridge that moves over that gradually changes to northwest flow

Most of the models move most of the thunderstorms out of the
forecast area during the day on Sunday, although there will be some
mainly in the north during the day Sunday. By late Sunday afternoon
and night there is another wave that moves into the area. There is
MUCAPE over 3000 j/kg so there could be a few strong to severe

By Monday the ridge is drifting through the area. The temperatures
will be warming up a few degrees. There could be a few thunderstorms
around, but the models do not agree very well on the amount or
location of any thunderstorms. The ridge moves to the east on
Tuesday and an upper level wave moves into the area from the west.
There could be a few thunderstorms around on Tuesday, but the better
chance will be Tuesday night as the upper wave gets closer.
Thunderstorms will move out of the area Wednesday morning and the
afternoon should be mostly dry. A weak wave moves into the area
Wednesday evening and brings a chance for thunderstorms back to the
area. Thursday through Friday is back to northwest flow and a few
upper level waves that bring on and off chances for thunderstorms.


Models have some differences for the Monday time-frame. The one
thing that the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all have in common at this
time is that it looks like there should be a good chance for dry
conditions. The models do have some QPF for locations around the
central plains. As for clouds, there is still a lot of things that
could change over the several days until the eclipse, but there
could be some clouds around the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions are anticipated through the early
evening hours along with generally light southerly winds. With a
weak boundary around...could see a few isolated -SHRAs or -TSRAs
this afternoon...but with the spotty nature of these diurnally
driven showers...did not include a mention at either terminal.
Later tonight...expect the LLJ to increase across the local area
resulting in several hours of LLWS as an upper level disturbance
approaches the from the north. This disturbance should result in
more widespread SHRA and TSRA activity overnight tonight...likely
beginning at the terminals on or after 13/06Z.




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