Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 122344
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

NOT A LOT OF SURPRISES TODAY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF COOL TEMPERATURES. THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MAINLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA...DRIVEN BY AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY EAST
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SE OF
THE CWA. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...WITH CU
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE SUN. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SWRN NEB. WINDS REMAIN NRLY WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. TEMPS AS OF 3 PM ARE STUCK IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND STILL SOME CONCERN HASTINGS IS
GOING TO SET A NEW COOL MAX TEMP RECORD FOR TODAY. 56 DEGREES IS
THE CURRENT RECORD...AT 3 PM HASTINGS HAD ONLY REACHED 51
DEGREES. WILL SEE HOW THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON GOES...BUT
GOING TO NEED MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO RISE ANOTHER 6
DEGREES AND NOT SET A NEW RECORD.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SLIGHTLY NWRLY TO ZONAL. TODAYS
DISTURBANCE KEEPS ON SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA KEEPS THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BROAD TROUGHING. NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
CWA TONIGHT/TOMORROW. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY OVER SWRN NEB WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST...RIGHT ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MODELS SHOWING
IT BY SUNRISE TOMORROW CENTERED NEAR THE KS/MO BORDER. BY THE END
OF THE DAY TOMORROW IT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE MIDWEST.

EXPECTING THERE TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW...AND COMBINED WITH THE SFC HIGH SLIDING THROUGH
RESULTING IN LITTLE WIND...EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT. STILL
GOING WITH LOW/MID 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT HAVE SOME CONCERN
WITH THE FACT THAT NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE SFC HIGH IS SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AND WE WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTING
TO PICK UP FROM WEST TO EAST. IF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/CALM WINDS
STAYS MORE CENTERED OVER THE CWA LONGER THEN TEMPS COULD COOL
MORE. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ARE STILL NEAR/JUST BELOW
GUIDANCE...AND ARE NEAR RECORD VALUES. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW
FOR MORE INFORMATION. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FROST ADV IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT.

EXPECTING TO SEE A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
TOMORROW...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION TO START THE
EXTENDED WITH THE MAIN WESTERLIES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WITH A JET
STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH TRANSLATING SOUTHEAST FM
MANITOBA. SOUTHERLY LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW WARMER
AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD FM KS INTO NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTN/EVE AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY IS
PROGGED JUST OVER 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IMPRESSIVE AT
40 TO 50KTS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WITH DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TIMING OF CONVECTION FAVORS THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.

COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
START OF THE WORKWEEK AS THE PATTERN ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION. CONDITIONS DRY OUT DURING THE MORNING AS A 1020-1025MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEB
BEHIND. H85 TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY...SO WE
ARE LOOKING FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE COOLER...IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.

THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AND THE PATTERN ALOFT
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED MID WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH
DEEPENS FM THE HUDSON BY THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
NW FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WARMER AIRMASS
SPREADING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CANNOT RULE HIT OR MISS CONVECTION
IN THE WAA AND AS SUBTLE WAVES TRANSLATE THRU THE FLOW. THE
WARMEST TEMPS SETTLE IN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK WHEN
READINGS SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 70S OR 80S AS THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND EDGES ONTO THE PLAINS. DEPENDING ON MODEL
TIMING...FRIDAY ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY BREEZY/WINDY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT BOUNDARY WHICH IS PROGGED
TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AFTN OR JUST BEYOND DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFTING AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO NEAR 18KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER 13TH FOR BOTH GRAND
ISLAND AND HASTINGS IS 34 DEGREES. IN GRAND ISLAND THIS WAS SET IN
1949 AND 1979...HASTINGS WAS SET IN 1949.

A FEW FACTS SHOULD THE LOW TEMPERATURE TONIGHT FALL TO 36 DEGREES
OR LOWER...

AT GRAND ISLAND...IT WOULD TIE SEPT 13TH 1949 FOR THE 8TH EARLIEST
LOW TEMP OF 36 DEGREES OR LOWER ON RECORD OUT OF 119 YEARS. SEPT 3RD
1974 RANKS FIRST...WHEN IT DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES.

THE MOST RECENT TIME IT HAS BEEN 36 DEGREES OR COLDER BEFORE SEPT
13TH WAS SEPT 12TH 1975...WHEN IT GOT TO 36 DEGREES.

ONLY ONCE HAS GRAND ISLAND DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR COLDER BEFORE
SEPT 13TH...WHEN 28 DEGREES WAS RECORDED ON SEPT 12TH 1902.

AT HASTINGS...IT WOULD TIE FOR THE EARLIEST LOW TEMP OF 36 DEGREES
OR LOWER ON RECORD OUT OF 108 YEARS...WITH SEPT 13TH 1949 WHEN IT
DROPPED TO 34 DEGREES.

IN MORE RECENT YEARS...THE ONLY TIME IT HAS BEEN 36 DEGREES OR LOWER
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF SEPT WAS IN 1993...WHEN 35 DEGREES WAS
RECORDED ON SEPT 15TH.

HASTINGS HAS NEVER DROPPED TO 32 DEGREES OR LOWER BEFORE SEPT
13TH...THE EARLIEST READING OF 32 DEGREES OR LOWER IS SEPT
20TH...WITH 32 DEGREES RECORDED BOTH IN 1983 AND 1991.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005>007.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADO
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLIMATE...ADO/PFANNKUCH


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