Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 031001

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
401 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Lots of moisture is streaming north and across the local area
this morning ahead of an upper level disturbance across northern
Mexico. With isentropic lift ahead of this low...expect the light
precipitation shield that has formed across southern Kansas this
morning to continue to lift north through the morning
hours...eventually spreading some light rain or snow across the
southeastern half of the local forecast area.

Looking at model soundings near the KS/NE state line this
morning...have a hard time seeing much in the way of freezing rain
as the very shallow layer of above freezing air aloft will rapidly
cool as the profile saturates...resulting in either a very cold
light rain or light snow across the local area. Despite
this...did maintain a very small possibility for some light
freezing rain through the early morning hours...primarily across
north central Kansas...but think that any freezing precip will be
brief at best...with the potential for some light snowfall
accumulations actually looking more likely.

While this is not expected to be a big event...did up snowfall
totals south and east of a line that extends from roughly Phillipsburg Kansas...where the most
favored locations could see between one half and one inch of light
snowfall accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces through the
early afternoon hours. Models have come into some agreement with
upwards of two tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent in the most
favored spots...which is significantly higher than just 24 hours

As we then transition into the afternoon not expect
any breaks in cloud cover...but precipitation should let
up...meaning a cold...cloudy day is in store for the local area.
With inherited high temps generally in the mid to upper 30s...did
not need to make any significant alterations to temperatures this

For tonight...expect gradual clearing from west to east during the
late night hours...which should allow temperatures across our west
to plummet to near or below 20 degrees overnight...with more
modest mid to upper 20s are expected in areas that hang onto
additional cloud cover through early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

For the period Sunday through Monday, the upper trough is through
the forecast area and the surface high to the south moves off to the
east. Expect dry conditions with mild temperatures across the area.

These will be the last mild days for a while. A cold front is
expected to move through the area Monday night and an upper level
wave moves into the area. The models have some slight differences in
the timing of the front as it moves through. Once thing they do
agree on is that behind the front the pressure gradient tightens and
winds will start to increase. Have increased the winds behind the
front. Another difference in the models is if there is
precipitation. The NAM has some while the GFS and ECMWF are mainly
dry. There is a little precipitation around the area though. Have
added some light snow to late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
There is some light amounts, but should not be much. The main upper
wave will move into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The other
story with this is the cold air behind the front. A strong high
pressure system builds into the northern plains and brings cold air
into the area. The precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday will
be snow.

By Wednesday night the precipitation has come to an end and dry
conditions are expected through Friday. Wednesday through Thursday
will be the coldest as the surface high moves through the area. By
Thursday night there is a little warm advection, but lows will still
remain cold. Highs on Friday will start to warm a little bit.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Clouds will thicken and lower at both terminals overnight as the
atmosphere begins to saturate in response to an upper level
disturbance approaching from the southwest. While the bulk of any
precipitation will remain south of the terminals...MVFR or lower
CIGS should set in around daybreak Saturday...and linger through
most of the day. With a fairly light pressure gradient in not expect winds to be much of a factor...with
southerly winds generally less than 12kts anticipated during the
daytime hours tomorrow.




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