Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 101653
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1053 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1017 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Updated the forecast for the rest of the day and into the evening.
For the rest of the morning and afternoon, I bumped up wind speeds
even more and followed closer to the RAP solution, although winds
will be noticeably lighter toward 3 pm as wind direction shifts to
the south. Lowered dewpoints for the rest of the day and into the
evening as well, following closer to CONSHORT and bumping down
dewpoints a couple of degrees from there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Radar shows a band of mostly light rain moving through the area.
Ahead of the band and initially as the rain moves in, temperatures
are near or just a bit below freezing. As the band moves in the
temperatures have been rising and some locations have came up almost
10 degrees.

The main concern for this period will be the current rain/freezing
rain situation. With the band, there has been a brief period of
freezing rain before temperatures warm above freezing. The area most
likely to see more freezing rain will be the northeast part of the
forecast area. The temperatures there are mostly 28 to 32 degrees.
They should warm up as well, but by then there may not be as much
mixing. All of the precipitation should move out of the area during
the morning hours.

The next concern for today is temperatures. With temperatures
warming in the southwest portion of the forecast area, they are
already close to the forecast highs. Will warm things up just a bit
in the southwest, but will have to watch it during the afternoon.
The clouds move out of the area during the afternoon, but return
later tonight. Tonight the temperatures will drop back into the 20s
for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 440 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

A very progressive west southwesterly flow aloft is anticipated to
continue through the end of the week as an upper level disturbance
eventually cuts off from the synoptic flow across southern
CA/norther MX...eventually lifting into the plains early next week.
Under this fairly progressive pattern, expect multiple small chances
for some light precipitation...mainly in the form of snow...as
multiple weak upper level waves provide some weak forcing for some
light snow or flurries. The GFS is quite a bit further south and
east of the local area than the EC with the progression of the
aforementioned upper level low across the southwest...which could
potentially have a significant impact on the local area early next
week. Due to the significant timing/placement issues between the
global models...opted to leave the blended extended forecast as
is...and continue to keep an eye on the developing weather situation
early next week.

Otherwise...expect a blast of cold air to rapidly track across the
local area to start the extended periods on Wednesday as a strong
cold front races across the local area. With nearly a 30C drop in
temps at 850 behind this front...expect cold air advection
throughout the day Wednesday...with the daily high temperatures
likely coming during the morning hours...with a fairly blustery(and
cold) afternoon in store. While moisture is lacking with this
system...could see a few light snow showers or flurries primarily
north of I-80....late Wednesday night into Thursday morning - with
little to no snowfall accumulation expected.

Thereafter...unseasonably cold air will remain entrenched across
the local area through the end of the work week...with the more
southerly flow over the upcoming weekend likely to help moderate
temperatures back closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1047 AM CST Tue Jan 10 2017

Amended the 12Z forecast to account for a narrow band of MVFR
ceiling streaming in from the northwest. It appears more likely
for this to stick around a bit longer at KEAR compared to KGRI,
but confidence is not high. Latest satellite trends indicate that
the small area of clouds is shrinking, however, so for now, there
is a 2-hour window of MVFR ceilings in the forecast for 16-18Z.
Wind speeds have also been increased for the next few hours as
well.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Heinlein



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