Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 240859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
359 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across
much of the local area through the afternoon hours. This activity
is associated with an approaching cold front which is expected to
cross the local area during the afternoon hours. While
temperatures are expected to remain above normal in most
spots...with significant cloud cover and this cooler
airmass...they will likely be around 10 degrees cooler than the
past few afternoons.

In addition to the clouds...showers and thunderstorms...expect
breezy southerly winds to relax by afternoon...before shifting
more northwest behind a secondary push of cooler air which will
cross the region overnight.

Regarding thunderstorm activity today...with modest instability
building by the afternoon hours along with deep level shear around
40kts...cannot rule out a few strong thunderstorms...especially
across eastern areas which should remain in the warmer and more
moist sector of air ahead of the cold front. At this time...the
eastern fringes of the area...primarily east of highway
281...remain in a marginal risk for severe weather from the storm
prediction center today...which seems reasonably given the
atmospheric profile across this area.

As the secondary push of cold air makes its way across the local
area this evening...expect thunderstorm activity to end from west
to east...with a significantly cooler overnight temperatures
anticipated for most locations with the clearing skies and cold
air advection anticipated across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Aloft: The longwaves will be highly amplified Sun morning. The mean
trof will extend from ND-NM with a low over ND and another over NM.
An anomalous strong subtropical high will be over the E Pac with a
ridge along the W coast. The trof over the Plains will head E into
the Midwest/GtLakes Mon...leaving the NM completely cut-off. The
high will become elongated and build into the Wrn USA. NW flow will
be overhead thru Tue with a ridge moving in Tue night into Wed. This
is when fcst confidence decreases. Model consensus falls apart Wed
night. A deepening trof/low off the Pac NW will force the Desert SW
cut-off low to open up and become absorbed into the Westerlies.
Unsure how quickly this energy makes it here...but SW flow will
develop Thu as the ridge departs to the E...and the flow remains SW
into next weekend as the mean trof once again dominates the W. The
other potential fcst snag is the cut-off over the Ern USA. Thought
the last 2 UKMET runs were extreme with 3-4 closed isohyets at H5.
Then the 00Z EC came in with a 561 dm low over OH Wed. This could
slow down progression of upstream features. For now...model
consensus is for progression.

Surface: Low pres will be near Lake Winnipeg Sun morning. The cool
front that moves thru here today will be E and S of the fcst area
from MN-IA-OK-TX. Wrn USA high pres will gradually build in Sun-Mon
and then slip E of the region Tue. Barring the extreme EC/UKMET
solutions...return flow should develop here Wed. We then have
multiple days in the warm sector as strengthening high pres resides
over the Ern USA...while low pres migrates thru Wrn N America. The
associated cool front probably won`t reach the fcst area until next

Sensible wx: a cool start to the week with a nice warming trend.
Temps should be back to normal by Tue and should remain near to
slightly above normal thru next Sat. With today`s cool front fcst to
plunge down into the will take a while for decent moisture
to return to the region. Multiple days of dry wx are expected...and
even when the chance for shwrs/tstms re-enter the fcst late week...
they aren`t looking good.

Some daily details...

Sun: Sunny but cool with the upr trof overhead. Most locations along
and N of I-80 will probably fall short of 70F. Influx of dry air
should limit development of diurnal stratocu. Brzy NW winds will
gust 20-30 mph. Highest from the Tri-Cities N and W.

Mon: A chilly start. Sunny but still a little cooler than normal.

Frost: A touch of patchy frost is possible around daybreak Mon in
low-lying areas and valley`s N and W of the Tri-Cities. Confidence
is only average as conditions are not ideal. Right now we have a
spread of 7F between temp/dwpt. Would like to see that much closer
to 3F for better the air may be too dry for frost.

Tue-Thu: Very nice with comfortable temps and refreshingly low

Thu night-Fri: Uncertainty on chances for a little shwr/tstm
activity. Hesitated to blanket the entire fcst area with thunder. Am
not convinced it`s required...especially E of Hwy 281. If the
EC/UKMET end up right these periods will end up dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the period...albeit
there will be a prolonged period where thunderstorms will be
possible across both terminals as a cold front progresses across
the local area during the early morning through afternoon hours
today. Ahead of this front...expect increasing mid level clouds
with occasionally gusty southerly winds and some LLWS as latest
VWP still indicating upwards of 45KTS about 1KFT above the
surface. As this front makes its way across the local
area...expect significant mid level cloud cover with potentially
some MVFR CIGS or VSBYS at either terminal if they are affected by
a thunderstorm. Expect slow clearing late in the afternoon as the
front progresses further eastward...with winds shifting westerly.


.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Rossi is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.