Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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762
FXUS63 KGID 262012
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

The Central Plains sits under general northwest flow. This
increases the chances for numerous chances for precip through the
first half of the forecast.

In the short term, there are a couple of disturbances that will
move across the area. The first will bring a chance for showers
and thunderstorms tonight/early Wednesday and the second more
potent disturbance will bring chances of showers and
thunderstorms again Wednesday into Wednesday night.

1. Tonight:
The better moisture and moisture transport is across western
Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Expect some activity to
develop along and ahead of the lee trough over western Nebraska
this evening and move eastward. The question though, will it reach
south central Nebraska. Currently thinking some activity may
breach western sections of south central Nebraska...but do not
think that it will track very far eastward. However, where there
is better support over northern Nebraska...storms may continue and
some of this activity may impact portions of central Nebraska as
far south as Interstate 80 around morning.

2. Wednesday-Wednesday night:
Wednesday has the chance to be cloudy with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance indicates that after a brief lull in
action after early morning activity dies off, a piece of the upper
wave will move eastward, helping to fire off more thunderstorms
over the heart of south central Nebraska. Then by later afternoon
a secondary, more potent wave will dive southeast aiding the
development of showers and thunderstorms as well as moving a weak
front southward into the area. Not expecting rain the whole day,
but there could be multiple chances throughout the day and into
the overnight hours. A complex is expected to move southeast into
central Kansas late Wednesday.

Temperatures will be impacted by these multiple rain chances and
cloud cover. However, with that said...any areas that see breaks
in the clouds, temps will increase. Currently have highs in the
80s in Nebraska with some low 90s in Kansas on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Thursday through the Saturday the Central Plains will continue to
be under northwest flow with multiple chances for precipitation.
Despite the chance most days/nights, it will not rain all the
time, expect it to be more dry than wet. But regardless, the
chance for scattered activity persists. Temperatures will be
cooler, in the 80s through Saturday with light flow, multiple
chances for precipitation and cloud cover.

By Sunday upper ridging begins to build back in from the west.
Sunday through Tuesday dry out and heat up. Highs leap back into
the 80s

The ridge is relatively quick to move eastward with another wave
moving in from the west. This will break things up some for later
in the week beyond this forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast. While
there is a chance that some storms could develop and move eastward
into the area late tonight, confidence on how far east they will
actually get is low. Have left any mention of thunderstorms out of
the forecast for now, but if convective activity does develop and
maintain itself, then later forecasts would to add the potential
for thunderstorms. Overall southerly winds will be light with
mostly clear skies.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Billings Wright



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