Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 261729
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NO SIGNIF CHANGES...BUT DID ADJUST TEMPS TO SLOW THE FCST RISE
OVER S-CNTRL NEB WHERE CLOUDS WERE LIMITING HEATING. THE BAND OF
SHWRS DROPPING S HAS DISSIPATED. DID ADD SOME 20% POPS TO THE FCST
FOR ISOLATED SHWRS THAT MIGHT DEVELOP IN DAYTIME HEATING 4PM- 7PM.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND NAM INDICATE NO
CAP WHILE THE GFS MIXES DEEPER AND HAS A CAP. THE SOURCE REGION IS
FROM SD AND THE 12Z ABR SOUNDING DOES INDICATE INSTABILITY AND NO
CAP EVEN WITH MIXING OUT THE DWPT IN THE SFC LAYER.

THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM...BUT BELIEVE ONE OR TWO
SHWRS COULD POP-UP. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVE.

OVERALL...EXPECT A NICE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF CU AND
STRATOCU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MAKING
ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS SHOW THIS LINE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ONLY KEPT
SOME SMALL POPS PRIMARILY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92 DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...SKY COVER IS
ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN
STORE.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO TRANSITION FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TOWARDS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...RESULTING IN LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS...AND MAINLY CLOUD
FREE SKIES...FELT SAFE UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES ON LOW
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE
VISIBLE IN WV IMAGERY TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE JUNE.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LOOKING AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WELL AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NV/UT/AZ BORDER AREA IS RESULTING IN RIDGING WELL NORTH INTO WRN
CANADA...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER THE MIDWEST REGION. THE RESULT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS SHARP
N/NWRLY FLOW...AND AT THIS TIME NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES IN THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND WHILE NO DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PASS DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONE PASSING
SOUTH THROUGH THE MAIN FLOW JUST OFF TO OUR EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS A DRY ONE...BUT A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
THAT...MAINLY DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WHILE
THE SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY IS DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE...BRINGING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS...SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SIMILAR TO RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES...NOT LOOKING AT A
NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPS...BUT IT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NRLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONT...WHICH
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO ESP OUR NC KS COUNTIES THAT IT WOULDNT TAKE MUCH OF
A SLOW DOWN FROM MODELS AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
FORECAST. WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. FORECAST STILL CALLING FOR
DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW LOWER 90S ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NC KS.

AS WE GET INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. MONDAY MORNING...OVERALL NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IS
EXPECTED LOOKING AT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...REMAINING WELL
AMPLIFIED. HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE
SHOWN BY MODELS TO BE WORKING INTO THE PAC NW REGION MONDAY
MORNING...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE A TOUCH AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCED FOR THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST COME
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THESE WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE MORE NWRLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS ON THE LOWER
SIDE...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS STILL IN PLACE TO BE WORKED
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS. OTHERWISE...NO BIG SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SAT AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH SCT 2000-2500 FT STRATOCU LIFTING TO
AROUND 5K FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF SHWR PRIMARILY
AFTER 20Z. N WINDS 10-12 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL G17-18 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

TONIGHT: BECOMING VFR SKC BY 02Z. LGT AND VRBL OR CALM WINDS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

SAT THRU 18Z: VFR WITH A FEW STRATOCU DEVELOPING AFTER 15Z. LIGHT
NW WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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