Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 301142
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
542 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

QUIET CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS...SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION AND A RIDGE AXIS SET UP FROM TX INTO
THE NRN ROCKIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...AIDING IN THAT
RIDGE AXIS BEING IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE AFFECTING THE CWA...WHICH
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ONTARIO SOUTHWARD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SIDE. ALONG WITH NOT AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT...TEMPS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER
THE SRN WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...BUT EVEN BY 00Z
THIS EVENING IS STILL LOCATED OVER SRN CA. LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...A PIECE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTED OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE W/SW SIDE OF
THE AREA...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE IS ALSO STARTING TO
INCREASE. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS FAR SWRN PORTION OF THE CWA AS WE APPROACH
00Z...AND EVEN THOUGH NOT ALL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS...DECIDED TO
INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SPRINKLES. AT THE SFC...WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE WITH TIME...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER CO. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EXPECTING TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MANY LOCATIONS...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
IN THE EAST TO LOWER 50S IN THE WEST.

THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY
RAMP UP...AS LIFT INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED APPROACH OF THAT
LEAD MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH BY 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE
SHIFTING INTO THE FAR SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. THERE REMAIN EVEN NOW
SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN MODELS...BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY AS WE APPROACH/PASS MIDNIGHT...AND THE
FORECAST POPS CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND WITHOUT A NOTABLE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
LOOK TO REACH DOWN TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
FREEZING...AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY COLD EITHER. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH LIQUID DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WITH BOTH
RA/SN MENTIONED AFTER MIDNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY LOOKS TO RESULT IN MINIMAL/IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN THE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT TIME
FRAME.

SATURDAY...RELATIVELY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SNOW
TO ACCUMULATE. THEREFORE...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW IS FORECAST TO
ACCUMULATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TO
MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. OMEGA VALUES ARE RATHER MARGINAL
AND SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION...BUT RATHER
PERSISTENT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT THROUGH
MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT MOST
FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY UPPER 30S FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.
THEREFORE...SNOW WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE THE WARM LAYER WILL BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT. AREAS THAT STAY SNOW...PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST
OF THE TRI CITIES WILL LIKELY STILL SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION DUE TO SFC TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING CAUSING THE SNOW TO MELT ON CONTACT. THEREFORE...HAVE
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND REALLY DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH AT THIS POINT IN TIME. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE
AT LEAST SOME DECENT MOISTURE FROM THE RAIN AND MELTING SNOW WITH
PERHAPS ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES EAST AND COMES TO
AN END FOR OUR AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL PRESS EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL MOVING THROUGH THIS IS WHEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE MOST OF OUR MEAGER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
WILL ESSENTIALLY COMPRISE OF THE LARGELY CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTH WEST THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SATURDAY
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL WEAK FORCING. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SO
THAT ANY REMAINING SNOWFALL WILL FINALLY BE ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH SNOW LEFT TO FALL BY THIS POINT IN
TIME AND THUS HAVE OVERALL LOWERED SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THIS WINTER
STORM SYSTEM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ACROSS OUR EAST AND NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MAKING SUNDAY
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW HELPING TO PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S BY
TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 50S OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE NEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CANADIAN CLIPPER. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE CLIPPER IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTICEABLY
COLDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE DETAILS ONCE WE GET A BIT CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PERIOD LIES TOWARD THE
END...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FORECAST FOR
THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS REMAIN QUIET...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT MODELS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASING...AND ADDED IT ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF -RASN IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE THIS MORNING...BUT ARE STARTING TO MAKE THAT
TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL REMAIN THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AFTERNOON SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT AROUND 15 MPH...THOUGH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...ADP



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