Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280520
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO CENTER ON
TEMPERATURES.

STARTING WITH THE BIG PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWING A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WITH A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN HALF. IMPRESSIVE JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WITH 130+ KT 300 MB JET ON THE BACKSIDE
FROM ERN NDAK TO SOUTHERN IL...AND 170 KT JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING NICELY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AS CAN BE SEEN OVER NEB AT 500 MB WHERE HEIGHTS ROSE 90M
AND 120M RESPECTIVELY OVER LBF AND OAX. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS SITTING OVER OUR
AREA HAS SLID EAST FROM MN TO MO WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN ABOUT A 14 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEB BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
HEARTLAND.

EXPECT THE UPPER FEATURES TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THUS THE RIDGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
WEATHER...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY ANOTHER TROUGH
DROPPING INTO VANCOUVER. THIS SHOULD NOT DAMPER THE EXPECTED
WARMUP EXPECT LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS VERY WARM 850 MB AIR
SLATED TO PUSH IN STARTING THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
CWA IS SEEING THE START OF THE WARMUP TODAY AS EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S...OR ABOUT 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA.

AS NOTED ABOVE 850 MB TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM DRAMATICALLY FROM
WHAT WE DEALT WITH THE LAST FEW DAYS. AT MIDNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...OUR CWA RANGED FROM -3C IN THE SOUTHWEST TO -8C IN THE
NORTHEAST. BY NOON ON FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
FORECASTING THESE TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO +12 NORTHEAST TO +18
SOUTHWEST. MAY NOT MIX OUT THAT DEEP BUT IT DOES GIVE AN IDEA OF
WHAT IS TO COME. AFTER LOOKING THINGS OVER...PRETTY MUCH LEFT
HIGHS ALONE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

WITH NO FORCING MECHANISMS EXPECTED AND A FAIRLY DRY
ATMOSPHERE...KEPT FORECAST DRY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MOST RECENT
TIME/HEIGHT SECTION OF THE NAM OVER GRI DOES SHOW SOME GOOD
MOISTURE JUST OFF THE DECK AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FOG DUE TO THE SURFACE FLOW WHICH SHOULD
BE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LIE
WITH TEMPERATURES.

REALLY NO NOTABLE CHANGES LOOKING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS...RESULTING
FROM BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING INTO THE
ROCKIES. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING IN FROM THE PAC NW
REGION WILL FURTHER BREAK DOWN THAT RIDGE...BRINGING ZONAL FLOW TO
THE CWA. STILL LOOKING AT A DRY FORECAST TO START THE WEEKEND. AS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR DAYS...SATURDAY STILL FORECAST TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THANKS IN PART TO WARMER AIR
ALOFT BUILDING ONTO THE PLAINS...BY 12Z SATURDAY 850MB TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. AT THE SURFACE...A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AN ARE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER EAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE RESULTANT W/SWRLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS /ARND
10-15MPH/ ALONG WITH THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ALREADY IN PLACE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE 60S...WITH SOME
READINGS NEAR 70 CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN WRN
LOCATIONS. CURRENTLY HAVE MID 60S IN THE TRI CITIES AREA...GRAND
ISLANDS RECORD FOR THE DAY IS 71...BUT HASTINGS IS ONLY 68...AND
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS JUST 2 DEGREES SHY OF THAT.

THE MILD CONDITIONS WILL UNFORTUNATELY COME TO AN END FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...AS A SURFACE COLD
FRONT /DRIVEN BY A BROAD TROUGH AXIS PUSHING THROUGH THE NCENTRAL
CONUS/ WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. OVERALL...THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT HASNT CHANGED MUCH SINCE 24 HRS AGO...WITH MODELS
STILL SHOWING THE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH SWINGING THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE BY 12Z SUNDAY...AND THE COLDER AIR MASS NOT TOO
FAR BEHIND. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A DROP IN HIGHS OF 30+ DEGREES IN SOME
PARTS OF THE CWA /ESP THE NORTH/ FOR SUNDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID
20S TO MID 30S. THAT COLDER AIRMASS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY...WITH CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DRY CONDITIONS
IN THE FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WE SEE A SWITCH
TO MORE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC HIGH
MOVING EAST...HIGHS STILL LOOKING TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS IN PLACE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER AS WE GET INTO THE WED NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
OVERALL..THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL...WITH THE GFS HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THINGS QUIET...WITH SUPPORT
FROM THE GEM IN ITS PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
EXPECTING MODERATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE THREE DAYS AFTER A
COLDER SUN/MON...WITH TEMPS BY THURSDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE 40S
CWA-WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ONLY PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTH TO WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OF
NEBRASKA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EWALD
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI



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