Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 290850

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

High temperatures today will continue to be cooler than normal for
this time of year given a good deal of cloud cover. Highs should
generally range from the lower 80s over south central Nebraska
to the mid 80s across north central Kansas.

A short wave will bring a pretty good chance for showers and
thunderstorms today to our west across portions of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas. Our forecast area is expected to be
on the periphery of this weather feature with better chances for
catching the much needed moisture over our western and
southwestern zones. Our northeastern zones will see very little if
any chance for precipitation today. Instability continues to be
low and falls off quickly as you head east across the forecast
area, in fact the MUCAPE values are only only a few hundred J/Kg
if even that across the center and eastern portions of the
forecast area. Consequently, decided to go with isolated thunder
wording as precipitation may not have much lightning with it.

The 00Z NAM indicates that showers and thunderstorms could
redevelop and increase in coverage west of Highway 281 this
morning, while the 07Z HRRR generally highlights a decreasing
precipitation trend through the day. The ARW and NMM are also less
than impressive with precipitation today indicating little if any
rain through the day. Current belief is that the 00Z NAM may be
overdoing its rain forecast and we will continue to keep middle of
the road rain chances across the west without going too overboard
given the uncertainty between models.

Tonight...The best chance for appreciable precipitation will
continue to be southwest of our forecast area, but our
southwestern most zones will have at least some chance of getting
in on some of this moisture with the better chances coming in
after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

This segment will be updated shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Saturday)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2017

We`ll see rain showers with a few isolated thundershowers for
several hours prior to dawn at KEAR. However, KGRI appears to be
east of this precipitation complex and thus will keep KGRI dry for
now. The wind will generally be light and variable and expect VFR
conditions throughout the TAF period.




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