Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170523
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1123 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT IMPACTED THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY...BUT HAVE
DECREASED. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER MOST OF KANSAS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE SYSTEM TOMORROW INTO
THURSDAY. THE NEXT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL PERSIST AND STUNT
THE DAYS TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S.

THE CONCERN AND MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD ICE
PRESENT...THUS WHAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE. IF THERE IS
CLOUD ICE AVAILABLE...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND/OR SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IF CLOUD ICE IS LACKING...DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE. AND THE EVEN BIGGER CHALLENGE IS THAT ALL
OF THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENT AND
IDENTIFYING THE TIMING OF WHEN EACH MAY OCCUR IS DIFFICULT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW ON HOW MUCH ACCUMULATING SNOW WE MAY
SEE...WITH CURRENT FORECAST FEEL IT MAY MOSTLY BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE WHICH COULD CAUSE A GLAZE OF ICE AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THAT BEING SAID...STILL KEPT LOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MAIN TAKE HOME IS...
*A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ARRIVING TOMORROW
*PRECIP WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
 OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY.
*TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO BELOW ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WINTRY
 CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...ESPECIALLY
 AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT.
*HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH SNOW AND/OR
 FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERSISTING
 THROUGH THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS.

THURSDAY PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMING FOR FRIDAY BACK INTO THE LOW
40S.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
SURFACE FORCING AND LACK OF MOISTURE...IT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY...BUT THERE
REMAIN DISCREPANCIES ON HOW IT WILL EVOLVE. ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY FALL LOOKS TO BE LIQUID...NOT FROZEN.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    24  36  31  37 /   0  40  70  30
HUTCHINSON      21  38  29  36 /   0  30  70  30
NEWTON          23  37  29  36 /   0  30  70  30
ELDORADO        23  35  30  36 /   0  40  70  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   24  36  32  39 /   0  50  70  30
RUSSELL         19  40  27  34 /   0  30  60  40
GREAT BEND      21  39  28  35 /   0  30  60  40
SALINA          20  40  29  37 /   0  30  70  50
MCPHERSON       20  38  29  36 /   0  30  70  40
COFFEYVILLE     24  38  33  41 /   0  50  70  30
CHANUTE         23  37  31  38 /   0  30  80  40
IOLA            23  37  31  37 /   0  30  80  50
PARSONS-KPPF    22  38  32  40 /   0  40  70  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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