Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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788
FXUS63 KICT 211151
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
651 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

The main forecast concern will be the potential for heavy rainfall
rates and possible flooding tonight.

An upper level trough will track from south-central Canada across
the Northern Plains and Upper Missippi Valley today into tonight.
Water vapor imagery also depicts a shortwave over eastern New
Mexico/west Texas, which has a batch of convection with it early
this morning. This weaker wave is embedded within a subtropical
moisture plume emanating from Mexico northeastward into the Southern
Plains. This wave will eject slowly northeastward into western
Kansas today, ahead of the main upper level trough to the north. We
will maintain a smaller chance of showers/storms this morning for
mainly west of I-135. An increased chance of storms is expected
this afternoon across northern/central/southwest Kansas, as the
wave continues to move northeast with peaking diurnal instability.
The moist plume will continue overspread Kansas today, resulting
in considerable mid-high level cloudiness, with the least cloud
cover indicated in southeast Kansas.

The subtropical shortwave over Kansas will get absorbed by the main
upper trough tonight, as the stronger system slides southeast
through the upper Midwest. A moderately-strong southerly low-level
jet will develop tonight, ahead of a southward moving cold front
which is progged to move into central Kansas after midnight. In
addition, upper-level divergent flow is indicated over eastern
Kansas. This should allow thunderstorms to increase in coverage in
central/northeast Kansas this evening, with potentially a large
complex of storms then sliding southward through eastern Kansas
late tonight. with precipitable water near 2 inches (above the 90%
climatalogical moving average), and some potential for back-
building and training storms, locally very heavy rainfall rates
can be expected, with flooding a possibility particularly in
eastern Kansas where the strongest, most persistent moisture
transport is signaled. Some of the east-central Kansas counties
may need to be included in a flash flood watch for tonight.
Otherwise, there is a marginal threat of isolated, strong-severe
downburst winds with storms this afternoon into tonight.

The cold front will push southward through southern Kansas Tuesday,
with a chance of lingering showers/thunderstorms, while clearing
occurs in the northern part of the state. A much cooler and drier
airmass will build southward into the area in the wake of the front
Tuesday into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Medium range models are in decent agreement indicating cooler than
normal temperatures continuing during this medium range period. Mid-
level shortwave energy is progged to move east out of the Rockies
across the Central Plains Friday into the weekend. Therefore, we are
expecting increased cloud cover and a chance of
showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

A cluster of SHRA with embedded TSRA conts to move N/NE ~25kts
over areas W of I-135 early this morning. While the convection
should remain W of the KICT terminal it`ll continue to affect KHUT
& KSLN til ~15Z. No doubt the greatest concern becomes how intense
the TSRA will be as a slow SE-movg cold front approaches Central
KS this eve. While there is sufficient confidence (+)TSRA will
spread SE across N & NE KS there remains disagreement amongst the
short-term models & soundings as to arrival times & intensities at
the Central KS terminals (especially KSLN). As such have assigned
"VCTS" to all except KCNU from ~22/00Z onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  73  86  63 /  30  50  50  10
Hutchinson      93  70  85  60 /  50  70  30   0
Newton          93  70  83  59 /  50  70  40  10
ElDorado        92  71  84  61 /  30  60  60  10
Winfield-KWLD   93  73  87  63 /  20  40  50  20
Russell         90  67  86  58 /  50  60  20   0
Great Bend      91  68  85  59 /  50  70  20   0
Salina          93  70  86  59 /  60  70  30   0
McPherson       93  69  85  59 /  50  70  30   0
Coffeyville     92  74  87  64 /  10  30  60  30
Chanute         91  73  85  62 /  20  60  70  20
Iola            91  72  84  61 /  20  70  70  20
Parsons-KPPF    92  74  86  63 /  10  50  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS



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