Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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725
FXUS63 KICT 241707
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1207 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Forecast Highlight:
Sever thunderstorm potential increasing for much of South-Central
KS along & W of I-35/I-135 late this afternoon & Evening.

Today & Tonight:
Numerous strong & severe thunderstorms continue to occur across Nrn
KS in pronounced E/W-oriented convergent axis no doubt enhanced by
moisture-rich low-level jet/convective outflow interaction. Still
expect convection to s-l-o-w-l-y wane this morning as low-level jet
weakens. Attention shifts to this afternoon & evening, most notably
South-Central KS along & W of I-35/I-135. A mid-level shortwave is
still expected to strengthen considerably as it lifts ne from Ern
NM across the TX Panhandle this afternoon and reaching SW KS early
this evening. With high octane fuel continuing to stream N across
KS & the approaching shortwave inducing pronounced deep shear, both
speed & directional (more so directional) severe thunderstorms are
scheduled to develop from Ern parts of the TX & OK Panhandles to SW
& SC KS late this afternoon & evening. SPC has assigned an enhanced
risk for severe thunderstorms for these areas which clearly makes
sense. CAPES are extremely high & although the GFS may be getting a
a CAPE adrenaline rush by projecting MLCAPES venturing into 5000
to 6000J/KG country there`s no doubt the airmass will be VERY
unstable. This warrants a "Severe Thunderstorms with Large Hail
and Damaging Wind" assignment to SC KS along & W of I-35/I-135.
There`s also an increasing potential for a few tornadoes for these
areas during these periods. Stay tuned.

Wed-Thu Night:
The afore-mentioned mid-level shortwave will shear as it sprints NE
toward, then across, the Mid-MS Valley Wed Afternoon & Evening, but
a 2nd & stronger mid-upper shortwave is scheduled to surge SE from
the Nrn Rockies. This character will likely induce mid-level
cyclogenesis over AZ & NM Wed Night. As the strong mid-upper wave
pushes ENE toward the Front Range deep-scale ascent will increase
& also find rich moisture with which to interact. As such more
severe thunderstorms are very possible for the latter parts of the
work-week. Wed & Wed Night appear most volatile for SE KS.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

With mid-range models in better agreement the inherited forecast
has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential.

Small chances for thunderstorms this afternoon near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border near a west to east oriented convective outflow
boundary. Any of this activity that may develop is expected to
stay south of the ICT and CNU terminals through 00z. Otherwise, a
better chance for scattered severe thunderstorms will be late this
afternoon/evening...with development first occurring in western
Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma. These storms will have an
eastward motion and could reach around the I-135 corridor toward
mid-late evening. Highest probabilities initially will be at the
RSL and GBD terminals where a tempo +TSRA is planned early this
eve, and will use VCTS as far east as SLN and ICT Terminals.
Strong-severe outflow wind gusts and potentially large hail could
accompany this storm activity.

Southeasterly, continued moist flow should result in stratus
development across much of the region late tonight into Wednesday
morning. Low MVFR ceilings appear likely, with some potential for
IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  68  86  69 /  40  40  10  10
Hutchinson      80  68  87  66 /  40  50  10  10
Newton          79  68  86  68 /  50  40  10  20
ElDorado        79  67  85  69 /  60  30  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   81  68  86  70 /  20  40  10  20
Russell         80  66  87  62 /  60  60  10  10
Great Bend      81  67  88  61 /  40  60  10  10
Salina          80  67  87  67 /  70  50  20  20
McPherson       80  68  86  66 /  50  50  10  10
Coffeyville     80  69  83  72 /  30  30  30  20
Chanute         80  68  82  72 /  50  30  30  30
Iola            80  68  82  72 /  60  30  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    79  68  83  72 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC



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