Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 071806
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
106 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS STRETCHING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP 850-700MB FRONTAL ZONE.
THINKING THESE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG...AS THIS DEEP
CONVERGENCE ZONE LIKELY IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE. SOME QUESTIONS ON
PRECIPITATION FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH THE RAP/HRRR
MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY MOVING IN BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN PLAINS MCV PROGRESSING
NORTHEAST. NOT SOLD ON THIS SOLUTION...AS MCV DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE MOVING NORTHEAST...SO WILL STICK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
HOLDS OFF ON INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL OVERNIGHT AS
SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BEGAN TO DIMINISH AROUND 06Z
WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FESTER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A MORE STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND TRENDED POPS DOWN THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED INSOLATION WILL
RESULT IN UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOCUSED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR HEAVIER RAIN
WILL REMAIN. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE TRIMMED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIMITED INSOLATION ON WED WILL KEEP
HIGHS WELL BELOW CLIMATE NORMALS WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANT FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA ALLOWING MORE SEASONABLE AIR TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S/AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. RISING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISING TEMPERATURES
WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR ICT-HUT-CNU...ALONG AN 800-600MB
FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE
LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THUNDER/LIGHTNING CHANCES ARE MINIMAL DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD
CHUNK OF THE AFTERNOON FOR CNU. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SW OK
APPROACHES. THINKING ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD EAST OF THE
KS TURNPIKE. FURTHERMORE...DIURNAL COOLING AND MOIST LOW-LEVELS
MAY ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR ICT-CNU AND MAYBE HUT.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  62  77  65 / 100  50  30  40
HUTCHINSON      76  60  78  63 /  50  30  20  50
NEWTON          74  61  75  62 / 100  50  30  40
ELDORADO        72  61  75  64 / 100  70  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  63  77  67 /  80  70  30  40
RUSSELL         79  57  80  62 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      78  58  80  64 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          78  59  78  63 /  10  20  20  40
MCPHERSON       77  60  77  63 /  50  30  20  40
COFFEYVILLE     73  66  79  68 /  70  90  60  40
CHANUTE         71  64  76  64 /  80  90  60  40
IOLA            72  64  76  63 /  80  90  60  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  65  78  67 /  70  90  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

&&

$$


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