Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 292016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Early morning convective complex has moved well south of the
forecast area, with a bubble high currently over most of the
forecast area with pleasant late July temps. Still seeing some
showers continuing to fester over western KS at this time, and feel
like this area may see the showers become more surface based and
more convective as the afternoon wears on.

As the evening progresses, low level moisture transport looks to
increase over the TX/OK panhandle into SW KS. This will probably
lead to the convection becoming more widespread either over SE CO or
SW KS late this evening, forming into a some sort of SE moving
complex of showers and embedded storms late tonight into early Sat
morning. Most of the Hi-Res solutions show most of the showers
associated with the complex will be more of a glancing blow to
portions of South Central KS as it dives SE in OK. So will go with
solid chance pops in South Central KS with lessor pops further to
the NE. Expecting the showers/storms to actually wane as it pushes
further east, as the elevated instability diminishes rapidly as the
showers move east by early Sat morning.

Sat-Sat night: The weak NW flow pattern remains around until at
least Sat, with warm advection increasing for areas to the west of
the forecast area Sat afternoon.  Expect to see some morning light
shower remnants over Srn KS for the morning hours on Sat, with dry
conditions for most of the daytime hours.  But as the afternoon
wears on, a warm frontal boundary will lift north across the
forecast area. Some uncertainty on how Sat afternoon will evolve as
most locations will see an increasing elevated mixed layer, capping
off any convective chances as the warm front moves north. Think some
strong/severe convection will develop to the NW of the forecast
area, with the potential for some of this convection to move into
portions of Central KS for Sat evening. An unstable airmass and bulk
shear of 30-40 kts suggests that a few strong/severe storms may move
across Central KS Sat evening.

As Sat evening progresses, warm advection will increase across most
of the forecast area from SW to NE, with moisture transport in the
850-700h layer increasing as well.  Think this will lead to showers
and storms becoming more widespread along I-70 and areas E-NE of
KSLN late Sat night. If the moisture transport is strong enough, the
increasing convection may be even further north into Srn Neb.  If a
complex of storms does get going across NE KS or Srn Neb, S-SE
movement may lead to this complex clipping SE KS by Sun morning, so
will leave some pops in for early Sun in this area.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

The warm advection really gets going for the end of the
weekend, with upper ridge in the Rockies building east into the
plains for the beginning of the work week.  This will lead to the
stifling heat returning to the plains. Expect max temps to climb
back above normal for Sunday, but with lots of surface moisture to
burn off, think the real hot days will hold off till Mon-Wed. Expect
max temps to climb back into the upper 90s to around 100 for Mon-
Wed. Will also see heat index values climb to around 100-102 on
Sunday and climb to 100-105 by Mon/Tue, as surface dewpoints remain
in the lower 70s across the ern half of the forecast area. So by the
end of the weekend, may have to once again consider some heat
headlines. As the ridge builds across the area most of the the
convective chances will push well to the NW and north of the area
through at least the middle of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon,
although the atmosphere is more stabilized particularly in south-
central Kansas compared to yesterday. So mainly a few cumulus
clouds are expected this afternoon, with light/variable winds
across the region.

Moist/unstable low-level upslope flow and northwesterly flow
aloft may generate a few storm clusters over the high plains late
this afternoon/evening. Some of this activity should translate
east-southeastward overnight into saturday morning, aided by
isentropic lift and 850 mb moisture transport. South-Central
Kansas terminals (ICT...HUT...GBD) appear to have relatively
higher chances tonight, compared to areas further north/northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  87  72  94 /  40  30  30  10
Hutchinson      68  87  71  94 /  40  20  30  10
Newton          67  86  71  92 /  40  30  40  10
ElDorado        68  86  71  92 /  40  30  40  20
Winfield-KWLD   70  87  73  94 /  50  30  30  10
Russell         66  87  69  95 /  30  20  40  10
Great Bend      67  88  70  96 /  40  20  30  10
Salina          67  89  71  95 /  30  20  50  20
McPherson       67  87  71  93 /  40  20  40  10
Coffeyville     70  87  72  92 /  40  30  40  30
Chanute         68  86  71  90 /  30  30  50  30
Iola            67  86  70  90 /  30  20  50  40
Parsons-KPPF    69  86  72  91 /  30  30  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC


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