Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211726

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1226 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 1034 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

The forecast has been on track so far today. The grids were
freshened up with the latest obs to establish new trends. Aside
from that, no other changes were made to the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Temperatures will come up quickly this morning as we quickly mix
out the inversion with temperatures quickly climbing into the 50s
by midday. No change to the current thinking, so forecast remains
unchanged early this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Gradient continues to tighten up between a strong ridge exiting to
our east and an approaching cold front from the northwest. The
increasing gradient has allowed for a nice range in temperatures
across east Kentucky early this morning with decoupled eastern
valleys sitting in the low to mid 20s and mixed ridges rising
through the 40s. The southwest flow will help to pump in some much
milder air into the region today with afternoon highs reaching
around 60. Surface moisture will also come up through the day and
this could lead to a widely isolated shower in the vicinity of the
higher peaks in southeast Kentucky (mainly Black Mountain). Will
carry a 20 percent chance of rain there although the 00z NAM
really the only model supporting the rain chances.

The models are in very good agreement regarding the cold frontal
passage time and also in keeping eastern Kentucky dry tonight.
Based on how temperatures responded behind the front on Sunday,
and this being a much milder airmass overall, have gone higher
with temperatures post frontal late tonight. The ADJMAV was a
good starting spot for the lows tonight. NAM and GFS BUFR
soundings also support some low clouds with an inversion post
frontal and the CONSMOS was a great starting point. Unlike the
past several stratus events, this time around, we should see a
nice surge of dry air arrive on Wednesday and that should scour
out any low clouds likely by midday or early afternoon. With
sunshine returning by the afternoon, we should see highs climb
through the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to rule across the CONUS through the period. Ridging will
remain the dominant feature across the Desert Southwest, with
persistent troughing across The Pacific Northwest and the East.
Differences crop up more in the smaller scale features, so a blend
of the guidance was a good compromise.

The resultant weather for eastern Kentucky will be dry, with
temperatures overall averaging below normal. Cool high pressure
will build in across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Day. Lows Thursday morning will be in the 20s, with lower 20s in
some of the cooler eastern valleys. Highs for the holiday will be
in the mid to upper 40s. The surface high will shift to the east
through Friday morning, with eastern valleys likely dropping into
the mid 20s once again, as southwest winds engage.

A cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through
Saturday. Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north,
closer to the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures
will average near normal across our area, with highs in the mid
50s. Another cool down will follow this front, with highs reducing
to the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

The TAF period will start off with scattered to broken layers of
mid-level and high clouds. These clouds should persist through
early this evening. Overnight, clouds should scatter out between 1
and 6Z, before a passing upper level disturbance brings scattered
to broken clouds to the TAF sites once again between 6 and 11Z.
The second round of clouds may also include a scattered to broken
layer of low level clouds at each TAF sites between 9 and 11Z.
Those clouds should scatter out early Wednesday morning as the sun
rises and drier air filters into the area from the northwest.




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