Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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474
FXUS63 KJKL 310850 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
450 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

Conditions remain calm and clear as of 3am, with high pressure still
in general control of eastern KY. A weak cold front is currently
slowly pushing southeast across central IN and north central OH.
Most of the convection along this frontal boundary has deteriorated
with loss of daytime heating, though a swath of clouds remains just
northeast of the CWA. This frontal boundary will slowly push farther
south throughout the day, reaching the Ohio River by 21Z. This will
allow some clouds to make it into the region, mainly across the
northwest half. Afternoon heating may also spark some more showers
and thunderstorms, but most scattered activity will remain north of
I-64 closer to the best lift along the frontal boundary.

The cold front will continue on its slow southward path across the
state tonight and into Thursday morning. This will keep isolated to
scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
overnight and into the morning tomorrow, with chances lingering in
the higher terrain throughout the day due to upslope flow and closer
proximity to the exiting system. Overall, there is a lack of
moisture with this system, so QPF amounts will be unimpressive.
Winds will actually become more NWrly today ahead of the frontal
passage, and will remain northerly after its passage as well. This
will work to pull in much cooler air into the region, especially
post frontal when the pull of northerly air will be deeper. While
temperatures today will remain in the upper 80s to around 90, post-
frontal temperatures on Thursday will only reach the upper 70s to
around 80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

The models remain in good agreement aloft through the long term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a dampening trough moving
through the northeast section of the nation Friday into Saturday.
There are some differences with the handling of T.D. 9 progged to
come out of the Southeast United States and back into the
Atlantic early Saturday, but it should have little impact on the
weather over Kentucky. Some weak energy will be left behind over
the region Saturday as mid level ridging builds back over the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The energy, and somewhat lower
heights, will slip off to the southeast Sunday while the heights
increase over our area. The ridge takes hold over Kentucky to
start the new work week, peaking toward the end of the forecast
period over the Deep South. Given the good model agreement, a
blended solutions looks to be a good starting point for the
extended portion of the forecast.

Sensible weather will feature a pleasant couple of days heading
into the Labor Day weekend as dry and cool high pressure brings a
welcomed change of air mass to the area. However, this high does
move off to the east by Monday allowing warmer and increasingly
humid air to return to Kentucky. Even so, the building heat and
moisture will likely not be enough to trigger any convection
through rest of the forecast. Accordingly, the forecast was kept
dry with late summer heat and humidity spreading back into the
region for the latter part of the Labor Day weekend and into the
middle of next week.

Did make some minor adjustments to the temperatures each night
to account for ridge and valley differences. Also fine tuned the
Sky grids to build in more of a diurnal curve to the coverage
during the late afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

With an area of high pressure in control, VFR conditions are
holding strong across eastern KY. Skies should remain mostly clear
and winds light through much of the night. None of the TAF sites
saw rainfall from earlier today, so kept with only mentioning some
MVFR visibilities at SME and SJS towards dawn. The fog will burn
off between 12 and 14z Wednesday, with scattered cumulus likely
forming by the afternoon in addition to some thicker high level
clouds. Isolated convection will threaten later in the afternoon
as a cold front approaches the area from the northwest, and should
continue into the evening. Winds will average 5 kts or less
through the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW



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