Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221929
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
229 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

Current conditions across the area feature a break in the precip
as much of the incoming precip has dissipated as it passed through
to the north. With this, cloud cover is and will continue to be in
abundance and as such, temps have been slow to warm up across the
region this afternoon. Due to this, have lowered highs for today a
couple of degrees. Heading into this evening and tonight, as
expected, the ongoing event along the Gulf Coast has robbed alot
of moisture from advecting northward into the eastern Kentucky
and central Appalachian region. While some moisture will
eventually make it north as the parent low pressure system begins
to track up the coast, the lessened rainfall would not be as much
of a concern as once thought.

Thus, will reintroduce pops into the area again tonight as the low
tracks up the coast after 00z. With some lift moving in as well,
will keep a slight chance of thunder in the forecast but do not
expect is to be very prevalent. While rainfall is not as much as
previously expected, will leave the mention of brief heavy
rainfall in the HWO for over the head waters as a period of
banded precip may still move over eastern Kentucky but residence
time will be short as the feature will exit rather quickly. This
and the NAM and GFS still hint at a period of banded precip moving
over this region. This as well, while WPC keeps the Day 1
Excessive Rainfall marginal risk east of Kentucky, Day 1 and 2 QPF
totals still range in the 1.50 to 1.75 inch total.

The last of the wrap around moisture will exit eastern Kentucky
late Monday night with the bulk of the deep moisture exiting well
before cold enough air moving into the region will change the rain
over to a rain and snow mix on top of Black Mountain.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 358 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

The models agree on an amplified pattern to hold on across the
CONUS through next weekend. A deep upper level low will be pulling
out from the mid-Atlantic states into New England through the
middle of next week. Meanwhile, troughing will be moving from the
Rockies into the central Plains states. These two systems will
eventually merge up in southeast Canada, resulting in broader
troughing evolving east of the Rockies by the end of the period,
and consequently bringing an end to the above normal temperatures
we have been enjoying.

Showers will be on a gradual demise from west to east, as the
upper level low pulls away, and short wave ridging works in from
the west. A few flakes still look possible for the highest
elevations across our southeast into Tuesday morning, but with no
impact. Clouds will temporarily clear out Tuesday into Tuesday
evening, with a few valleys in the east likely taking advantage.

One last day of 60 degree temperatures will be on tap for
Wednesday, as strong south to southwest winds will be in place as
deep surface low pressure tracks to our northwest and north. A few
showers will be possible as the attendant cold front moves
through, although QPF continues to look very light.

A series of short wave troughs will then take aim at the region
through the rest of the period, with much colder air moving into
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Have maintained slight to chance
POPs at times; however, moisture will be limited, so any snow
impacts look pretty minimal at this time. Will await further model
runs, before playing up any one particular piece of energy to
move through the region. Highs will retreat to the 30s by Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

A few bands of rainfall will continue to push north through
eastern Kentucky as a low pressure winds up of the southeast
CONUS and moves up the east coast. This will mean heavier showers
later this afternoon and into tonight moving into the area. This
will drop cigs and vis at all the TAF sites through tonight. Will
expect field minimums at all the sites by tomorrow morning. Also,
a rumble of thunder within the stronger bands can not be ruled out
as well. IFR and below conditions can be expected to end the TAF
period. Winds will be light through much of the period before
increasing out of the north by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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