Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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966
FXUS63 KJKL 191807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
107 PM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

A few light showers (mixed with snow in the far southeast
high elevations) are still ongoing across portions of eastern
Kentucky but have been on a dissipating trends over the last hour
or two. Will let ongoing pops ride as they show this dissipating
trend too, but will continue to monitor and update as necessary if
pops drop off faster or slower than forecast. Loaded in the
latest observations to make sure the near term forecasts for temps
and winds were on track with current conditions. All updates have
been published and sent to NDFD/web. Will send out a new forecast
package to remove early morning wording.

UPDATE Issued at 645 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

Updated the grids to mainly adjust the PoP and Wx ones through the
next few hours. Snow likely continues on top of Black Mountain and
at least mixing in on the ridges above 2500 feet. The bulk of the
measurable pcpn will depart by 10 am with just some lingering
flurries or sprinkles remaining behind into the early afternoon.
Also, added in the latest obs and trends from the T/Td grids.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

07z sfc analysis shows high pressure building into eastern
Kentucky in the wake of a strong weather system now moving into
northern New England with its cold front approaching the East
Coast. The pressure gradient between these main features is
relaxing and as such the winds are subsiding. Accordingly, will
allow the wind advisory to expire at 4 am as currently outlined in
the NPW and headlines. Cold air advection and upslope flow on
brisk northwest will continue through the rest of the night and
into Sunday. Temperatures are dropping across Kentucky behind the
cold front with mid and upper 30s noted west and lower 40s in the
east. The exception to this is the higher terrain along the
Virginia border where readings are falling through the 30s. In
fact, Black Mountain is reporting 32 degrees and certainly snowing
as light pcpn is moving through. Would not be surprised to see up
to an inch of wet snow on its peak. Otherwise, any mix with or
change to snow will not occur until closer to dawn most places
with only locations above 2500 feet see a potential of a light
coating. Sprinkles will be the rule for most of the night over
mainly just the eastern two thirds of the area and into Sunday
morning with some flurries possible on the ridges from dawn
through midday.

The models are in excellent agreement aloft through the short
term portion of the forecast. They all depict the region in the
wake of the main, large trough that has now shifted east into New
England. A secondary, weaker wave will push east through the area
today with its own batch of mid level energy. Following this
latter wave, heights will start to rebound over the area in
benign northwest flow devoid of any minor waves tonight into
Monday, By Monday evening the pattern will flatten out over
Kentucky and start to take on a southwest cant as some weak
energy moves into the state. Given the excellent model agreement
have favored a model blend along with a lean toward the high
resolution, near term models like the HRRR and NAM12 for forecast
details.

Sensible weather will feature light showers and sprinkles mixes on
the ridges with snow or flurries. These will diminish with time
through noon. Look for the area to dry out and pcpn to come to an
end by afternoon. All this will take place under cloudy conditions
and continued CAA on west to northwest winds keeping temperatures
from rebounding off of morning lows, too much. Look for the
clouds to start to break up tonight from southwest to northeast
with a potential for some radiational cooling adding to the mix
for valley spots. Sunshine will return in earnest for Monday
helping to send temperatures up toward 50 degrees for highs.

Again used the CONSShort and Shortblend as the starting point for
all the grids through the short term. Did end up making some fine
tune adjustments to lows tonight based on terrain. Also, lowered
temps a notch for highs today given the clouds, winds, and light
pcpn around. Did nudge PoPs up a bit today based on our more
upslope favorable areas of the higher terrain in the east.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 AM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

A very quiet stretch of weather is set to arrive this week,
allowing for good travel conditions ahead of the holiday weekend.
A moisture starved cold front will cross the area Tuesday evening,
but outside of producing a reinforcing shot of cooler weather, not
anticipating much impact from this front. As high pressure builds
in for Wednesday through Friday, we should see a continuation of
quiet weather conditions. We could see another nice warmup up
Friday into early Saturday as southwest flow develops ahead of a
cold front pushing towards the region. This cold front will then
bring another big cool down to end the holiday weekend Saturday
night into Sunday. At this time, models do not show much moisture
associated with this cold front, so will continue to hold onto a
dry forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST SUN NOV 19 2017

BKN to OVC MVFR to low end VFR CIGS are still ongoing across
eastern Kentucky, though there is a defined back edge now moving
across western Kentucky. Expect CIGS to start clearing out during
the evening from southwest to northeast. Clear skies will then
stay in place through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will
remain from the west to northwest throughout the rest of the day,
generally around 8 to 12 knots, though some isolated higher gusts
will be possible. Winds will then dissipate throughout the
evening and into the overnight, remaining under 10 knots through
tomorrow as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW



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