Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 120916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

MAIN SNOW BAND WAS PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADING FOR THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. OBSERVED VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-3 MILE RANGE
SUGGEST SOME MODERATE POCKETS OF SNOW CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS
PARKWAY/HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDOR. A SHARP CUTOFF TO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD OCCUR...WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING UP TO HALF AN
INCH SOUTH OF MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND NOTHING NORTH. WILL CURRENTLY
OPT TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLAY THROUGH NOON TODAY...BUT MAY VERY
WELL END UP DROPPING AREAS FROM PRESTONSBURG WEST THROUGH JACKSON
AND BOONEVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE FLAKES BEGIN TO FALL
WEST OF INTERSTATE 75 BY AROUND 7 AM THIS MORNING WITH THE BRUNT
OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDING NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WET-BULBING AND BELOW FREEZING THERMAL
PROFILES ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION FROZEN.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COURTESY OF UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ACROSS LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW POCKET OF SATURATION AHEAD OF A
STRONGER SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
FRINGES OF A POTENT HUDSON BAY LOW. ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE
TO KEEP LINGERING FLAKES IN THE REGION. NOT EXPECTING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING.

THE PERSISTENT COLD WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN AS SINGLE DIGIT WIND
CHILLS MATERIALIZE SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS IN THE BLUEGRASS
REGION COULD SEE THESE DROP TO AS LOW AS -5F WHILE A FEW RIDGETOPS
MAY BE EVEN COLDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AS STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS PERSIST WITH
A STOUT COLD DOME IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE AND
NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE HIGHS AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE
REGION...GIVEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WOULD
THINK OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EASY FOR
MOST SPOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. VALLEYS IN THE EAST WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING LOWER TEMPS JUST GIVEN THE CLUSTER OF SURFACE
HIGH PLACEMENT FROM THE SUITE OF MODELS. AFTER THIS MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS TROUBLE RESOLVING SEVERAL KEY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THAT SAID
THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF POPS
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MODEL BLEND AND OVERALL SEEMS LIKE GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN AT LEAST DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO POPS. THE
PRIMARY IMPLICATION OF CONCERN WILL BE TEMPS...AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL HIGHER THAT WE WILL
SEE A LEAD WAVE THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE MODELS DO WANT TO SPREAD A WARM NOSE
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A WARM FRONT. THE QUESTION ON
THE WARM NOSE IS HOW STRONG. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH WITH LOW PLACEMENT ON THE 00Z RUN WHICH WOULD BE LESS OF A
WARM NOSE THAN THE ECMWF. RIGHT NOW WILL HAVE SEVERAL TRANSITION IN
PTYPE THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY ON...AND DISCUSSING THIS WITH
OTHER OFFICES AGREE THIS WILL BE A DIFFICULT FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE. IT WILL HELP WHEN THIS SYSTEM IS FINALLY
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

ANOTHER WAVE RIDES THE COAT TAILS OF THE PREVIOUS DEEPER SURFACE
LOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS IS MOST ROBUST RIGHT NOW AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND AT THIS POINT. AFTER A MORE
COMPLICATED PERIOD OF TIME A SURFACE HIGH PRESSES EAST AND UPPER
RIDGE INTRODUCES DECENT HEIGHT RISES AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW
50S BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR THIS MORNING/S LIGHT SNOW TO PASS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED...WITH KLOZ/KSME POTENTIALLY
BEING THE ONLY SITES TO SEE ANY SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
HOWEVER MATERIALIZE FOR ALL SITES BY MID-LATE MORNING AND LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ068-069-079-
080-083>088-110-112>118-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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