Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 250545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DID A MINOR UPDATE MAINLY TO FINE TUNE LOW TEMPERATURES...AND THE
CURRENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT...OVERNIGHT. ALSO MATCHED UP THE
T/TD/SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT AHEAD OF THE
FORECAST AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT DID ALSO BEEF
UP THE VALLEY FOG AND ADDED A TOUCH OF FROST TO THE DEEPEST SPOTS
TOWARD DAWN IN THE WX GRIDS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
AND LONG THE RIVERS. SOME OF THIS HAS CREPT INTO SME
BRIEFLY...HOWEVER AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THE T-TD SPREAD IS GREATER. DURING THE DAY...TOMORROW...CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH FIRST CIRRUS THEN SOME MID CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH EAST
KENTUCKY BY EVENING...HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VIRGA OR
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES WILL BE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THIS
WOULD NOT AFFECT FLIGHT OPERATIONS. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.