Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250240
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1040 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Cloud cover continues to hold in place across much of eastern
Kentucky. Have seen some breaks in the lower decks, but not enough
when combined with what is still approaching from the east, to
ramp up the fog from what is already advertised.

UPDATE Issued at 807 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Plenty of deep layer cloud cover continues to reside across
eastern Kentucky this evening, stemming from a low pressure system
across the Carolinas. A weak surface ridge nosing into south
central portions of Kentucky may make for a better period of
clearing across the Lake Cumberland region tonight, thus promoting
a better probability of fog development. Will maintain patchy fog
mention for now and reassess cloud trends through this evening for
any potential upgrade in coverage/amount.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Deep layer low pressure system resides across the Carolina coast
line and perhaps a weak surface trough extending northwestward
into KY. Given the low pressure location we are seeing easterly
flow across the region and mostly cloudy skies for most. There
have been some breaks here and there, but the majority of the
region remains overcast. This will lead to a more complicated
forecast tonight, as some of this stratus could end up building
down. This as deep low slowly moves north and east and weak upper
level ridge tries to nudge into the region. Overall based on the
trends will lean a bit lower in the SW and better cloud coverage
as you move NE. Given that did keep fog going in the Lake
Cumberland region tonight, given the higher potential for breaks
in the clouds. These clouds will also complicate the temperature
forecast and therefore kept fairly uniform temps given the
uncertainty.

This slow moving vertically stacked system will continue to move
up the east coast. This will slowly clear out of the region
through the day Tuesday as the upper level heights rise. This will
allow for clearing skies and warmer temperatures with high
progressing into the mid to upper 70s. This will persist into
Tuesday night and did not go with any temp splits at this point,
Given the increasing gradient ahead of the next system.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

The period starts off warm and sunny on Wednesday with shortwave
ridging in place aloft. Our pattern then turns unsettled again on
Thursday as a resident trough establishes itself over the central
CONUS placing our region under southwest flow aloft. Multiple
shortwaves will travel through this southwest flow bringing
periodic chances of showers and storms Thursday through Monday.
Saturday may be the lone dry day as models show a warm front
lifting to our north shifting any showers/storms to the north as
well, at least temporarily. Overall, forecast models are in
general agreement aloft but differ slightly with timing of
individual shortwaves and surface features so accepted the
standard model blend for forecast details in or order to smooth
out these differences.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period. In
fact, highs each day Wednesday through Sunday will likely reach
the upper 70s to mid 80s putting April 2017 in the record books as
one of the warmest Aprils on record across eastern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 807 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017

MVFR ceilings at JKL/SYM should improve to low-end VFR criteria
later this evening as relatively drier air very slowly pushes into
eastern Kentucky. However, a slow moving low pressure system
across the Carolinas will help low-mid level moisture to linger.
The best chance for clearing skies will be at SME/LOZ later
tonight, thus resulting in the best probability for fog
development. Have maintained mention of IFR/MVFR visibilities at
both sites for now, with this mixing out around 12Z Tuesday as
winds remain light below 5 knots. Stratus build down could lead to
some minor restrictions to visibility at SJS/JKL/SYM, but not
currently expecting this to bring a degrade to prevailing VFR
conditions.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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