000
FXUS63 KJKL 101855 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

A MIX OF SUNSHINE AND CLOUDS FOLLOWED THE EXIT OF THE SNOW LATE THIS
MORNING BUT THE SUN IS HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING HEADWAY WITH THE CAA
ONGOING THROUGH THE CWA ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE REMAINING
CLOUDS ARE NOW BREAKING UP...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND OBS HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER AND
HOURLY T/TD TRACES FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

WILL GO AHEAD AND DROP THE REMAINING ADVISORIES AND THE PIKE COUNTY
WARNING AS THAT BAND HAS EXITED THE CWA RELATIVELY HARMLESSLY. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALL
PRODUCTS AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN DRIER AIR. THIS IS COMING ON THE HEELS
OF A LAST DYING BAND OF SNOW PASSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ATTM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA ARE BELOW FREEZING RESULTING IN JUST
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. UNLESS
THERE IS SOME LAST MINUTE ENHANCEMENT AS THE FINAL SNOW BAND REACHES
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING OF FRESH SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND CUT BACK ON THE TIMES OF THE REMAINING
ADVISORIES AND PIKE COUNTY WARNING...AND THESE COULD BE DROPPED EVEN
SOONER IF TRENDS HOLD.

IN HIND SIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE 12Z NAM AND GFS WERE OVERDONE
WITH THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWIN MID LEVEL WAVES THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA THIS MORNING...AS EVEN THE LAST SNOW BAND FROM THE NORTHERN
CLIPPER COULDN/T HELP OUR SNOW FORECAST IN THE I-64 AREA. THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3 RDS OF THE AREA DID MOSTLY OKAY WITH TOTALS...THOUGH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE START AND RAIN ALSO CUT THE SNOW AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS.

UPDATES REFLECTING A QUICKER END TO ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH TOUCHED UP ZFP...WSW...AND
HWO TEXT PRODUCTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE OUT OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY OVERNIGHT IS NOW WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY ARE STILL EXPERIENCING SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM. A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN
INCH OR MORE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST QPF AND SNOWFALL GRIDS.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG
WITH THE CORRESPONDING ZONE BREAKUP IN THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT. THIS NEW BAND OF SNOW HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE TO
THREE INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

A SHORT WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM COULD BRING A SECOND ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS SECOND BAND OF SNOW
AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
WILL BE LEFT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT THESE ALL MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO IF IT LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS GOING TO
OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

BASED ON TRENDS OBSERVED IN RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT APPEARS THAT THE SREF AND GFS MODELS
HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...SKY COVER...WINDS PER THE SREF MODEL
OUTPUT. ADJUSTED QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY PER LATEST MODEL DATA. THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY
SHOWS NARROW BANDS OF SNOW FORMING ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD LEND ITSELF TO MORE ISOLATED AND NARROW CORRIDORS
OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL FROM TIME TO TIME. THEREFORE...THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT IN EFFECT PRETTY MUCH AS IS. SNOW HAS BEEN
REACHING THE GROUND AT NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATION POINTS ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STILL EXPECTING UP TO INCH OF
SNOWFALL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-64 CORRIDOR. ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN STILL BE EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE
FROM INEZ TO MOUNT VERNON AND WEST OF LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO
MONTICELLO. AREAS EAST OF PAINTSVILLE TO JACKSON TO LONDON LINE CAN
EXPECT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF THE WHITE STUFF BEFORE ITS ALL SAID AND
DONE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO FOUR INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE BASED
ON THE LATEST HPC QPF AND NAM12 FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS.

TEMPERATURES WILL COME IN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING AROUND 40 EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHWEST...WHERE HIGHS
WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE INTO THE MID 30S. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FAVORED THE COOLER MAVMOS NUMBERS FOR TODAY...ACCOUNTING FOR SNOWFALL
AND CLOUD COVER...AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER METMOS FOR TOMORROW
ACCOUNTING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AMPLE SUNSHINE...AND THE SHIFTING
OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE HIGH AND
DRY...ALBEIT QUITE COOL...AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
AREA. TONIGHT/S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 20 POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE US WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT THE SURFACE. THE RESULT IS SOME COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND FAIR
WEATHER. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE YEAR. THIS WILL FINALLY ALLOW FOR SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE MODEL DIFFERENCE ARE BECOMING
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT AS A UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO
THE WEST CENTRAL US. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AND THIS COULD REALLY MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN WHEN THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM. THESE PHASING OF THESE TROUGHS COULD ALSO MAKE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECAST. TRIED TO DO A MODEL BLEND AND SLOW DOWN
THE GFS A BIT...HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS QUITE
LOW...HOWEVER THE GENERAL PATTERN PROGRESSION LOOKS GOOD. FOR
TEMPERATURES...NUDGED THE MODEL BLEND TOWARD THE ECMWF DURING THE MID
PART OF THE PERIOD...WHICH FOR THE MOST PART...WAS A BIT COOLER THAN
THE MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

THE EARLIER SNOW AND LOWEST CLOUDS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THERE
REMAINS A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY BUT
THESE ARE BREAKING UP. ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR ALL THAT WILL BE LEFT
IS JUST A FEW HIGH ONES RESTORING VFR CONDITIONS THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 15 KTS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SETTLING SOME AFTER
DARK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF