Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 230115
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATES INVOLVE POP ON TUESDAY AND A POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL OUTWEIGH SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
FOR PRECIP IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE
LOWERED THE POP THERE. EVENTUALLY...FORCING WITH THE DEEP STORM
SYSTEM PASSING BY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT. GFS MOS SHOWS PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AS HIGH AS
50-60 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA. THUNDER HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED TONIGHT OVER WEST TN AND WESTERN KY. HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

WITH SHOWERS HAVING ARRIVED FROM TN...UPDATED TO BRING A POP INTO
THE FORECAST EARLIER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

TODAY HAS BROUGHT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EASTERN KY
TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND BEFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENTLY
WE ARE TRACKING SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
MESOSCALE MODELS DO WEAKEN THIS AND KEEPS MUCH OF THE SHOWERS WEST.
THIS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. HOWEVER DID OPT TO AT
LEAST INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THE MODELS DO EVENTUALLY INTRODUCE MORE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
ALONG MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SURGES NORTH. A TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SE AND AID IN DEVELOPING A
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
A TRANSITION IN LIFTING MECHANISMS TUESDAY AS LOW ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND ENERGY/LIFT MOVES NE WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW. ALSO THERE COULD BE SOME REASONABLE HELP FROM
DOWNSLOPING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL KEEP BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. ANOTHER TRICKY
PART OF THIS WILL BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST AND
HOW THAT WILL AFFECT TEMPS. RIGHT NOW GOING WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA...HOWEVER IF SOME CLEARING
IS SEEN YOU COULD SEE HIGHER TEMPS. THE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MS
RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE TN/OH
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CWA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO START OUT ACROSS THE CONUS. DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...SWINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET...ALTHOUGH
THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY CONFINED TO A FEW HOUR WINDOW AHEAD
OF...ALONG...AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

SHOWERS WILL BE SCATTERING OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT. COLD AIR/ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK FEEBLE...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW BY EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY AS HEIGHTS
MODERATE AND THE LONG WAVE PATTERN TURNS MORE PROGRESSIVE.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE DISAGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR AREA FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A MORE TRANSIENT SYSTEM. WILL SIDE
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF...SINCE IT TENDS TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY THIS
FAR OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE POPS THIS WEEKEND...WITH A LITTLE
SNOW POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER...
WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALOFT ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE BECOMING CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE HAVE BEEN
PATCHES OF MVFR AT TIMES AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY ACROSS
THE SW. RIGHT NOW THINKING THAT MORE IN THE WAY OF SOME MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO THE SW PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH MVFR CEILINGS AT SME AND SLOWLY
PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALSO ADDED THE MENTION OF VCSH
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THAT MODELS KEEP TRENDING TOWARD SOME SLIGHT SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OTHERWISE TAFS AREA WIDE ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DJ





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