Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Issued at 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Watching a mesoscale convective complex push into northern Indiana
with plenty of elevated instability and moisture to work with
downstream, assuming it can make a turn south. Valley fog will
remain in the offing, although should be less robust than that
last night/yesterday morning given less rainfall Saturday and
approaching cirrus ahead of aforementioned MCC.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Isolated convection this afternoon has been confined to near the
TN border apparently in association with remnant boundary from
yesterday`s convection. Also isolated convection being noted in
association with higher terrain near the VA border. With steering
flow very weak any convection this evening will be very slow
moving, so will once again need to monitor for locally heavy
rain. Current indications are convection should diminish fairly
quickly after sunset.

For Sunday, it looks like mean layer moisture may be a little less
than today and 850 mb temperatures slightly warmer, thus allowing
for slightly higher maximum temperatures. Forecast for Sunday is
mostly in the lower 90s with heat indices still around 100. Thus
still not reaching heat advisory criteria for our area. Will
still highlight the heat index values in the HWO. Any convection
on Sunday should have even less coverage than today, but an
isolated thunderstorm will still be possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Morning runs are showing quite good agreement and continuity with
mid/upper level features. The operation gfs/ecmwf solutions do
diverge somewhat beyond Thursday but overall trends are
consistent. Broad, roughly zonal flow gradually amplifies with
time across the CONUS resulting in ridging over the west coast and
across the east Atlantic. A mean trough takes shape over the Upper
Mid-West and Great Lake Region.

Our area will lie on the southern periphery of an active northern
stream, with a few weak disturbances and a couple more significant
short waves eventually digging out a trough across the eastern
CONUS. Consequently, sensible weather will include at least
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the bulk of the forecast
window. The best chance of rainfall will come early next week as a
cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late
Monday. This boundary becomes quasi-stationary and will act as a
focus for additional shower and thunderstorm activity through
Wednesday. What`s left of the boundary lifts northward by early
Thursday. Additional weak disturbances drop into the region from the
northwest ahead of a more significant trough taking aim for our
area by the following weekend.

The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily
convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for
this time of the year, generally in lower to mid 80s. But with dew
points hovering around the 70 degree mark, our weather will remain
quite muggy. Likewise overnight lows will be warm, running a little
above normals in the upper 60s to near 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Current VFR conditions expected to mainly dominate through the
period, with the best chance of sub-VFR conditions likely residing
at SME nearer a local water source. May very well see similar
conditions this morning around 10-12Z at JKL as valley fog mixes
up the ridge. Any patchy fog will mix out by early-mid morning
with a few cumulus developing by late morning into the afternoon
as an overall slightly drier and more stable airmass takes hold
today. Will have to monitor approaching mesoscale convective
system across northern Indiana with plenty of moisture/elevated
instability available downstream. Not expecting high enough
coverage to include mention of thunder at any site. Winds will
remain light through the period, generally averaging less than 5
knots from the south/southeast early to southwest this afternoon.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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