544
FXUS63 KJKL 140517
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
117 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/hot temperatures and high dew points will persist for the
  next week, resulting in sultry conditions.

- There will be a daily potential for showers/thunderstorms over
  the next week, especially in the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025

No major changes made with this updated aside from touching up
PoP based on radar trends and loading in the latest surface obs.
Evening text and radio products have been updated to reflect the
changes. Grids have been saved and sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 418 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025

A modest trough in the prevailing upper level westerlies is
crossing eastward over the Great Lakes late today, with a weaker
extension further southwest to TX/OK. This is giving us weak
southwest flow aloft on the perimeter of subtropical ridging. A
seasonally fairly moist atmosphere is present with a tall thin
CAPE profile, and showers/thunderstorms have increased in coverage
(especially over our southern counties) with diurnal
destabilization. Instability and shear combos don`t look favorable
for severe wx, and it would probably take strong outflow
interaction to have concerns. However, the storms are slow moving
and with the CAPE profile they are beginning to show localized
hydro concerns. Activity should show a decline this evening with
slow loss of instability. However, the weakening upper trough will
continue to approach tonight as it becomes increasingly strung
out, and additional convection can`t be ruled out. With the last
vestiges of the trough still over the area on Monday, and diurnal
heating once again, another increase in showers/thunderstorms
should occur. The CAPE profile looks similar, without a big
concern for severe wx. Flow aloft is forecast to increase a bit
with cells moving a little faster, and with that, hydro concerns
are a bit less. Activity will once again decline on Monday night,
probably to a greater extent due to the demise of the upper
trough.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

When the long forecast period opens on Tuesday morning, an upper
level ridge will have nudged its way into Southern Kentucky. Thus,
Tuesday looks to be the driest day in the long term forecast
period, albeit the afternoon hours are still marked by scattered
shower/storm chances. After any leftover clouds from Monday`s
activity and the AM valley fog burn off, efficient diurnal warming
processes should yield notably warmer highs near 90. This exceeds
the convective temperature thresholds visible in modeled BUFKIT
soundings, but a lack of dynamic support aloft and only marginal
amounts of CAPE should limit the impacts of Tuesday`s
showers/storms. That activity should begin to subside after sunset
and as overnight low temperatures cool down towards 70 degrees.

For the rest of the long term forecast period, the guidance suite
collectively resolves a stagnant weather pattern over the eastern
half of the country. A broad anticyclone is forecast to remain
parked over the Southeastern states, whereas zonal flow will move
through the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes. The Ohio River
Valley will be situated between the two, and our sensible weather
will accordingly be driven by characteristics of both.
Southwesterly flow in the lower levels of the atmosphere will
persistently advect a warm, moist airmass into the Commonwealth,
keeping temperatures and humidity high. This will lead to above-
normal PWATs and increasingly oppressive heat indices on Wednesday
and Thursday. Expect afternoon highs in the low 90s on both days
and peak heat indices in the upper 90s in the deepest valleys and
urban corridors. These warm/humid conditions will combine with
some shortwave impulses moving through the broader zonal flow to
enhance precipitation chances across the area on Wednesday and
Thursday. Thunderstorms will be possible, but they are likely to
remain pulse-like in nature. Weak winds aloft and dry air in the
column will mitigate deep-layer shear and thus the potential for
highly-organized convection. This is particularly true for
southern KY, which will be closer to the center of the
southeastern ridging.

Thus, the greatest sensible weather impacts over the area next
week will likely come from the cumulative nature of the heat and
the repetitive nature of the precipitation chances. Rain chances
will peak every day in the afternoon/evening hours, and the
heaviest showers could provide some localized relief from the hot
apparent temperatures. However, overnight lows near 70 degrees
will provide limited nocturnal relief. The NWS HeatRisk tool has
been picking up on the potential for heat-related health impacts
across Eastern Kentucky in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.
Likewise, WPC has outlined the forecast area in Marginal (Level
1/4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook on both Wednesday and Thursday.
The potential for localized flash flooding will be highest in
areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain multiple days in a
row next week, as soils in those places will progressively be able
to absorb less moisture.

Guidance suggests that the SE ridge may flatten late next week
and allow a weak frontal boundary to slide into the forecast area.
This could yield slightly cooler afternoon highs in the 80s, but
a lack of deep upper level support means that said front is likely
to stall out. This will keep diurnally-peaking rain chances in
the forecast for next weekend, and we will closely monitor the
potential for any potential excessive rainfall-related impacts as
the mesoscale details of the forecast become clearer by mid-week.

In short, expect an active summertime weather pattern to persist
across Eastern Kentucky this week. Confidence is high that Eastern
Kentucky will experience seasonably warm/humid conditions and
daily diurnal peaks in shower/storm chances throughout the next
week. Only minor adjustments were made to the NBM-populated long
term forecast grids, as it is capturing the general pattern well.
Confidence in the magnitude of overnight ridge-valley temperature
splits is low due to the potential for lingering clouds from
diurnal convection. Likewise, nocturnal fog may form in locations
with wet grounds beyond the typical river valleys. With that being
said, grid edits were limited to minor reductions in valley low
temperatures, minor increases in ridgetop low temperatures, and
the addition of valley fog in the weather grids. &&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 117 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2025

Scattered mid and upper level clouds continue to spread across the
area late this evening potentially delaying the onset of valley
fog. Pushed back the onset time a couple of hours for this latest
forecast.

Showers and storms are expected to return tomorrow and persist
through much of the afternoon. Convection could bring decreased
categories to terminals. Lastly, winds are forecast to be light
and variable. For now, targeted 17-23Z as the primary window for
convection with TEMPO groups possible if confidence grows by the
12Z TAF.

Convective activity decreases during the evening hours with
terminals VFR through 06Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...ILN