Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 252025 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MODELS BEGIN THE PERIOD IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH A LARGE
SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THIS INITIAL SYSTEM
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY HEAVY. A SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY
ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 40 DEGREES...AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY COULD MARK THE START OF A SIGNIFICANT WARMING
TREND...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE
MERCURY CLIMBS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BOTH
DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEEL ALMOST
BALMY IF THEY IN FACT ONLY DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S EACH NIGHT.

ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MODELS KEEP THE FRONT IN PLACE...AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS TO REMAIN IN LIQUID FORM. DUE TO SOME SMALL TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING PRECIPITATION
ONSET...DURATION...AND AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO GO WITH ONLY
CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE FRONT
COULD EITHER REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA...ECMWF...OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AS A WEAK WARM FRONT...GFS...DURING THE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
HOLD ON OVER THE AREA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
MOISTURE AND LOWERING CLOUDS BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z.
AS OF RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE A GRADIENT IN THE LOWER
CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN
THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE
PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT
AS WELL...MAINLY AT KJKL AND KSJS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF



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