Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 232023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
323 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE MAPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT WILL TRACK NE AND ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TO NEGATIVELY
TILT WITH THE AXIS GENERALLY TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO COUPLE WITH THE LARGER TROUGH THAT IS
TRACKING EAST OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S. MOVING INTO MONDAY EXPECT A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS
MODELED SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MIXING TO
COINCIDE WITH STRONG JET ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
STRONGER JET ENERGY TO MIX DOWN. THEN WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL TRY TO
BUILD EAST MONDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTING PRECIP TO
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT. DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS DO
WANT TO KEEP SOME POPS AROUND OVERNIGHT SO PLAN TO STICK CLOSE TO
CHANCE/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT. THEN TRANSITION TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. GIVEN STRONG JET
ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION AND DECENT MIXING EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS
TO BE A ISSUE ESPECIALLY INTO MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SLIGHT/CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE CWA MONDAY. GIVEN MUCH OF
THE REGION WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH MONDAY
MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY AREA WIDE
MONDAY MORNING TILL LATE MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAIL OFF AS
WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING ON MONDAY...THEN COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND WEAK HIGH WILL TRY TO BUILD EAST OVERNIGHT
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE MODELS REMAIN IN A STATE OF DISARRAY ALOFT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH THE
NEXT TROUGH EVEN AS THEY FLIPPED THEIR SCENARIOS FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THEY ALL SWEEP A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH
THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUND. THE NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY RUNNING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT REMAINS IN QUESTION. THIS IS PROGGED TO
ARRIVE IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY TAKING THE CORE OF
ITS ENERGY THROUGH KENTUCKY...NOW QUICKEST IN THE NEWLY AMPLIFIED
GFS VERSION WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. THE GEM DOES LITTLE TO
SETTLE THIS DISPUTE BY HAVING A MILDER AND SHALLOWER ITERATION OF
THIS TRAILING TROUGH. GIVEN THE SLOWLY GELLING SOLUTION HERE FOR
MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL MODEL BLEND. THE FOLLOW
ALONG TROUGH WILL THEN EASE EAST-NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT LEAVING FAIRLY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND ABOVE THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY DURING THIS TIME
STAYING TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE GREAT LAKES. ALSO HERE...WILL
FAVOR A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WEATHER DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE DRYING OUT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY/S FRONT AND EAST KENTUCKY BEING TOO
FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE QUEBEC SFC LOW/S WRAP AROUND.
HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING STORM WILL START TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH A LARGE PCPN SHIELD LATER THAT
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE APPEARS TO BE A MODEL TREND
TO PULL THIS SHIELD FURTHER WEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE RIDGES WHILE THE
VALLEYS LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN. AS THE LOW PASSES LATER
THAT EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW OR RAIN CHANCES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CWA. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LINGER SNOW SHOWERS INTO DAY THURSDAY FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN THE FAR EAST. COLDER AIR THEN WILL LIKELY
SPREAD BRIEFLY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT NIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL
RETREAT JUST AS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW SENDS MOIST AND WARMER AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD BE ACTIVATED BY THE NEARBY FRONT
LATER SATURDAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES.
SUNDAY WILL BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...THOUGH...AS THE MODELS
DISAGREE AS TO WHETHER THE FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY...GFS...OR STAY NORTH...ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL HOLD TO THE
CONSENSUS HERE AND GO WITH A MILD FORECAST...BUT WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WITH CHANGES MAINLY MADE TO BETTER REFLECT THE SNOW CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE CHANGES FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN VFR/MFVR BETWEEN SHOWERS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE TAF SITES.
OVERNIGHT MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO COME TO A END
THEN POSSIBLE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES
TOMORROW AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SSW WINDS
ALOFT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE
TOWARDS DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ





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