Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291515 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
WHILE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS
STATES. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ALONG WITH INCREASES IN THE
DEWPOINTS TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE
RESPONDING TO THE EXIT OF THE HIGH TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. THE DEPARTING HIGH HAS WORKED TO KEEP
THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH KENTUCKY FOR MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK BUT
IS LOSING ITS HOLD ON THE AREA. AS SUCH...MOISTURE AND WARMTH WILL
BUILD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA. THE LATEST HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH THIS...BUT ALSO
TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...THAT SEEMS TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO WILL KEEP POPS SUB 14 PERCENT EAST OF INTERSTATE 75
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO ADD IN SOME OF
THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE CURRENT OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH AN UPDATED SET OF ZONES...DROPPING THE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG...TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
TO MATCH UP WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHER BASED CU
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...TO THE UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGETOPS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITHIN
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRUNG OUT BACK TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS GULF
COAST STATES.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES FURTHER EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP. FURTHER
EAST...IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
CONVECTION AT BAY...BESIDES A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. HIGHS TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GULF COAST
UPPER LEVEL WILL ALSO GET PULLED NORTH...HELPING TO REINFORCE AT
LEAST A WEAKER CAP ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHS
CONFINED TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WILL FEATURE A WEAKENING AND SHIFTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. IT WILL
SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST AND FURTHER NORTH AS IT SETS UP OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND REGION AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. DURING THIS TIME...UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE...A FEW LOW CENTERS...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF TS ERIKA
WILL DRIVE MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKYS WEATHER CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. DURING THIS TIME...MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH AN INFLUX
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. PIN
POINTING THESE FEATURES IN THIS WEAK FLOW WILL PROVE VERY
DIFFICULT.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WITH THE PATTERN DRIVEN BY SEVERAL WEAK
LOW CENTERS...SOUTHERLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FLOW AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...WOULD EXPECT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED. THIS THOUGHT PROCESS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SHEAR LACK OF ANY FORCING. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD CAP AS
WELL. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT A DRY
AFTERNOON TO THE EXTENDED AS WELL. DID GO BELOW THE SUPER BLEND IN
MOST DAYS KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND NIXING ANY NOCTURNAL PRECIP. IN SHORT...THE VERY
WARM...MUGGY...AND UNSTABLE DAYS OF SUMMER ARE RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 744 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...THEN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THEREAFTER. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
THREATEN DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT A
MENTION AT THE TAF SITES FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE. WINDS WILL ENGAGE OUT OF THE SSW AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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