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000
FXUS63 KJKL 250222
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING...ON TRACK FOR
LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN OUR TYPICALLY COLDER AREAS. DEW POINTS
CONTINUE TO RUN QUITE HIGH...WELL ABOVE CROSSOVER TEMPS. DECIDED TO
INTRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPECT IT COULD
BE LOCALLY DENSE IN SPOTS. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST
DEVELOPING IN OUR COLDEST LOCATIONS...MAINLY AROUND DAWN SO WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY THAT THREAT AS WELL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST. DEW POINTS ARE QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...WITH
CROSSOVER TEMPS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 35 AND 38 DEGREES DEPENDING ON YOUR
LOCATIONS. THINKING IS THAT DEW POINTS...WET BULBS MAY BE TOO HIGH
FOR MUCH MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF FROST. FOG MAY BECOME MORE
OF A CONCERN TOWARDS DAWN. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND
DEW POINTS...WITH PATCHY FROST STILL A THREAT FOR OUR MOST SHELTERED
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

COLD AIR IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
STAYED LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
WINDS...THE CURRENT DEW POINTS AS WELL OF THE MODEL OUTPUTS...MADE ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. STILL EXPECTING PATCHY VALLEY FROST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE TYPICAL COLD VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
VULNERABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY VALLEY. SATURDAY WILL BE A
GORGEOUS DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE VERY WELL SUITED FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. SOME
CLOUDS WILL START MOVING IN TOMORROW NIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED. EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY DRY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE BIG SANDY VALLEY TO NEAR 70 WEST OF I 75.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THEN SLOWLY INCH NORTHEASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PREVENT MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...SOME
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A BETTER LOOKING WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. THE BETTER FORCING MAY JUST SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS...SO OPTING TO STICK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.
THIS WAVE SHOULD HELP TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH...PUTTING
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN THE WARM SECTOR AND KEEPING A CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
AROUND FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL SET UP. IT MAY TAKE A FEW
DAYS FOR DEW POINTS TO RECOVER BEFORE SE START SEEING A RENEWED
THREAT OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM. HOWEVER...FOR THE
MOST PART...OUTSIDE OF THE CHANCE FOR RAIN ON MONDAY...MOST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD FEATURE DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
MODERATE ON SUNDAY...BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BEGINS FOR
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

VFR FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...AND GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY