Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 252046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
446 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RULE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL TO
OUR WEST OVER OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP TO LIMIT FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AND
HELP KEEP TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL EASE UP BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY
BEFORE REAMPLIFYING AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS
WILL BOOST TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.
DEW POINTS WILL STAY BEARABLE DURING THE DAY...BUT BEGIN TO CLIMB
BACK TOWARD 70 SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STORM LATE IN THE DAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DROPPING INTO THE AREA. STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT AREAS NORTH OF JKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS BEFORE DAWN ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL ENTER KY FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
PROVIDE FUEL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE ITS SEVERE WX TO OUR N AND
NW...BUT ITS REMNANTS MAY AFFECT THE EVOLUTION OF ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE ANY PRECIP WITH THE INITIAL SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ALLOW
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS STILL NOT HIGH. SHOULD THINGS GO AS MODELS SUGGEST...HIGH
INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SPEED SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN SEVERE WX DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL NEED TO MIX AWAY INTO THE NEW AIR MASS MOVING IN ON MONDAY.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING OCCURRING AS COLDER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...THE RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL STILL PRESENT A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST...WITH ITS AXIS JUST TO OUR EAST ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS...BY SUMMERTIME
STANDARDS...WILL FINALLY BE IN PLACE. WE SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHOWS AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE DROPPING INTO
IT...LEADING TO AN UPPER LOW STARTING TO CLOSE OFF AND RETROGRADE TO
THE WEST. THIS PUTS US BACK INTO A SYNOPTIC POSITION ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP...AND A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST TO END
THE PERIOD...DESPITE ONLY MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MIX OUT AND ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z...OR VERY SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...DEBRIS FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL
TO OUR WEST...WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ALONG WITH
SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP A REPEAT
OF THE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CEILINGS FROM DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT.
WILL HOWEVER HIGHLIGHT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND
SME AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY AS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS STILL
LIKELY TO FORM.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...ABE






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