Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 261905
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN IN A DETERIORATING STATE FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS RATE...MOST OF EASTERN KY WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT NOTHING STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDER. FURTHERMORE...DOWNSTREAM...AS
STRATIFORM RAIN BEGINS TO FILL IN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGAN SHIFTING TO THE NE. THIS WILL
CREATE A QUICK SURFACE INVERSION AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN...AND
WILL ELIMINATE THE THREAT OF THUNDER DEVELOPMENT HERE AS WELL. AS
SUCH...EXPANDED CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR CWA AS THIS LINE
BREAKS APART AND SCATTERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE DAY. DID KEEP WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
MENTION OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 821 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED IN
FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. HAVE FRESHENED UP THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BAND...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT COMES
EAST. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH...STILL EXPECTING ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY TO INITIATE UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...SO
JUST BLENDED INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST AFTER THE MID-MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN KENTUCKY. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ONGOING OFF TO OUR WEST...AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ACCORDING TO THE LIGHTNING DATA AND WARMING CLOUD
TOPS EVIDENT ON THE IR SATELLITE. THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTERS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
STORMS POPPING UP JUST EAST OF I-75 IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHELTERED VALLEYS IN OUR FAR EAST HAVE MANAGED TO DROP OFF INTO
THE 40S.

THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPING DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INITIALLY...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR THROUGH
THIS MORNING...AND THEN A BLEND OF THE MODELS THEREAFTER.
CONVECTION WILL DRAW CLOSER TO THE AREA THROUGH DAWN...WITH AT
LEAST SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO CONTEND WITH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE MAIN
BATCH OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP RECHARGE THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL EVENTUALLY
MOVE IN ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO MAINLY RAIN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH THE SOUTHEAST LIKELY SEEING
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF QPF...WHERE A HALF INCH OR MORE COULD FALL.

DRY SLOTTING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND AN INITIAL DEPARTING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE LIKELY CUTTING OFF BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW FLAKES. ON
FRIDAY...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE ESTABLISHED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST...TO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF TO THE 40S AND 50S BY LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH LOWS TONIGHT BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RECOVER TO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN
PATTERN AS WE MOVE FROM A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TO ZONAL FLOW NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SPELL A
MODERATING TREND AFTER THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH FAST ZONAL FLOW WE
WILL SEE A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS AFFECT THE AREA NEXT
WEEK...WITH EACH ONE BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN. IN FACT THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS AND WILL THEN
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

HOWEVER...BEFORE THE MODERATING TREND OF NEXT WEEK WE WILL NEED TO
ENDURE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO EASTERN
KY SATURDAY NIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY
AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING FAR EASTERN KY...BRINGING
WITH IT A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY PASSED THROUGH KSYM...KSME AND KLOZ WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KJKL AND KSJS
OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 45 MINUTES. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL LINE...WINDS
ARE MAKING A QUICK SHIFT TO THE NW...ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO
WORK IN. EXPECT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20KTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE FINALLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NRLY. STRATIFORM RAIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE INTO THE
MVFR TO IFR RANGE BY THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 500 AND 1000FT. BY
TOMORROW MORNING...RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE...THOUGH MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF A
LAYER OF HIGH MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.