Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KJKL 020615 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT A BIT MORE OF A RIDGE AND
VALLEY SPLIT THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ALSO FINE TUNED THE SKY
GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME MID LEVEL STRATOCU SHOWING UP IN OBS TO
THE NORTH OF JKL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FOG LATER TONIGHT...
BUT STILL RETAINED THE IDEA OF SOME DENSE PATCHES IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FINALLY...TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 743 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. JUST MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS
WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN. THE FOG SHOULD NOT
BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT BUT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY WARMING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL RACE FROM THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS DAWN
ON FRIDAY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER LATE IN THE NIGHT...
ALTHOUGH IN ALL REALITY THIS WILL LIKELY JUST BE SHOWERS AS AXIS OF
BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO STAY TO OUR WEST THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING
FRONT AND THE INCREASED MIXING SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FOG FREE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED...
AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. BEHIND THE FRONT THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BIG NEWS WILL
BE A SURGE OF VERY COOL AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS
DRAMATICALLY. 8H TEMPERATURES MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND...WITH FORECAST
HIGH IN THE 50S ON SATURDAY BEING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
DEPENDING ON SKY CONDITION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
FROST WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
BE AS LOW AS THE MID 30S IN SOME SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT STILL REMAIN 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL NOT PUSH AS FAR SOUTH...AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
NEARLY AS COOL IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL RELAX AND BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EAST KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. THE FOG MAY IMPACT THE LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES...SUCH
AS SME AND LOZ...TOWARDS DAWN. IN FACT...LOZ ALREADY IS SHOWING MVFR
FOG DESPITE A 2 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD. EXPECT THEM TO BE UP AND DOWN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR JKL...A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...THOUGH A
LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS...AROUND 4K FEET...IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM FRONT THIS WILL TAKE PLACE AFTER THIS TAF
CYCLE WITH LLWS A POTENTIAL ISSUE FROM 06 TO 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE PICKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH AT NEAR 10 KTS LATER THAT EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.