Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 052004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS



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