Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241722

National Weather Service Jackson KY
122 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 1054 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Ern KY has seen breaks in the clouds this morning as ely flow has
brought some downsloping. Expect the clouds to redevelop this
afternoon however, as low level moisture continues to be pulled
into the region by H5 low.

Lowered PoPs some for today, but left slight chance PoPs for the
extreme eastern areas, as can`t rule out a shower popping up.

Didn`t adjust highs for this afternoon, as temperatures in the
lower to mid 60s still look reasonable.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday evening)
Issued at 405 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

The models are once again in excellent agreement aloft through the
short term. They all depict a closed and semi-cutoff low dropping
through the Deep South and then east to the Atlantic Coast today.
As this low moves further away from Kentucky heights will rebound
and attention will shift to the flow pattern to the northwest.
This mid level pattern will be in the process of developing a
large trough over the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
closed low will be continuing its trek up the east coast -
located over Cape Hatteras at this time. Given the good model
agreement will favor a blended/consensus solution along with a
lean toward the high res HRRR early on.

Sensible weather will feature a cloudy and still rather cool day
across eastern Kentucky as most places dry out. A few lingering
showers will continue to affect the area - particularly east but
just small amounts of QPF are expected. Plenty of low level
moisture will continue to keep skies rather cloudy tonight and
into Tuesday which will limit the temperature drop off tonight but
should not impact the rebound much on Tuesday as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s with a return of partial sunshine.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance to start off the grids
through the short term. Did not have to make much adjustment to
temperatures but did nudge dewpoints down a few degrees this
afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Also made some minor
tweaks to the PoPs and QPF grids to limit their range and
coverage today.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Very mild air will build into the region for the middle of the
week as shortwave ridging pushes east across the region. A
shortwave trough will then drive a cold front across the area on
Thursday. Models are tending towards a slightly more active front
on Thursday, so confidence is increasing for at least some
scattered showers and storms with the front passage. In fact,
0-6km shear magnitude is 40 knots. This coupled with some surface
instability will lead to some potentially damaging wind gusts.
Instability and mid level lapse rates not impressive enough to
support updrafts capable of hail, so it looks like any threat from
storms would be limited to damaging wind gusts. Dry weather would
return by late Thursday evening. However, a warm front will lift
north across the area Friday and Friday night and bring more
chances of showers and storms. Some model differences emerge by
Friday, but depending on how things work out, more strong to
severe storms would be possible. The warm front exits to the north
by early Saturday morning with dry weather returning for the
weekend. In the wake of the front, summer-like weather will surge
north across the area with highs well into the mid to upper 80s on
Saturday and Sunday. As upper levels amplify with a large ridge
developing over the eastern US, the warm weather may continue into
the following week. However, at some point, a cold front will work
into the Ohio river valley and interact with the warm and moist
air to provide another unsettled period sometime early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Cigs are fairly complicated areawide this afternoon with portions
of the Bluegrass VFR and even some downsloping VFR in the far
southeast at times. Overall keeping most of the TAF sites MVFR
till around 20Z to 23Z. Then most should see the ceilings improve
and this will lead to a complicated forecast overnight. Depending
on the clearing amounts do we see a stratus build down or a fog
development type night. Right now given the confidence level will
lean toward MVFR fog at SME/LOZ and hold off on other sites at
this point. Winds will remain light out of the east and northeast
through the period.




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