Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





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