Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040047
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION...AS WE FIND OURSELF ON THE LEE SIDE OF A TROUGHING PATTERN.
A CENTER OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE...BEING PUSHED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS IT DOES...EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
ACROSS KY FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AFTER A WARM FRONT
IMPACTED US TODAY...TEMPERATURES WERE ABLE TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S IN
MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN
OVERNIGHT...CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AREA
TEMPS AT BAY...WITH ONLY THE FAR NORTHERN CWA EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
40. THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA MAY EVEN STILL STAY IN THE LOW 50S.

MEANWHILE...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FOCUS AROUND THE RAIN. MODELS ARE
NOW STARTING TO AGREE THAT THE BEST BAND OF QPF WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL KY AND SPREAD NE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. WITH STRONG LIFT
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...QPF OF BETWEEN AN INCH AND A QUARTER AND
AN INCH AND A HALF ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH
A THIRD TO A HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SE PORTION OF THE CWA.
RAIN WILL LIKELY PICK UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
IF THE RAIN WASN/T ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME CONCERNS...WE ARE ALSO STILL
DEALING WITH SOME SNOWPACK ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SE CWA. LUCKILY...THE SE WILL LIKELY
SEE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF...BUT REGARDLESS...ANY RAIN THAT FALLS
WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT...ENHANCING THE RUNOFF AND THEREFORE FLOODING
POTENTIAL. BY THE END OF THE NIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...EXPECT SOME OF
THE SMALLER STREAMS AND HEADWATERS TO BE RUNNING HIGH.

TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. QPF HAS BEEN COMING IN LIGHTER ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND HEADWATERS OF THE KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY
RIVER BASINS...WHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IS NOW EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
QPF HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...NOW PAINTING
ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS/I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES MAY
FALL.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW/SLEET ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE BLUEGRASS
AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING FURTHER SOUTHEAST. COLD AIR WILL
UNDERCUT THE WARM NOSE...WITH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
RESISTING THIS THE LONGEST. SOME ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
WITH SUCH A SHARP GRADIENT AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
LINGERING...THE ICE IMPACT MAY BE MORE RESTRICTED TO ELEVATED
SURFACES.

THE SNOW TOTALS LOOK IMPRESSIVE CLOSER TO THE I-64 CORRIDOR...
WHERE UPWARDS OF 10 INCHES LOOKS REASONABLE. AMOUNTS WILL DROP
OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH THE SLEET WILL CUT DOWN ON THE OVERALL
TOTALS. THE SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN COUNTIES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
SEEING THE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS...WITH THE WARM NOSE HANGING ON
LONGER...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF
HEAVIER SLEET. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A WARNING FOR
ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
BLUEGRASS...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST LIKELY NOT SEEING
A TRANSITION OVER UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING OR BEYOND.
PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES NORTH...TO THE MID 50S
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TAKE A GOOD 25 DEGREE
DIVE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREE RECOVERY
LIKELY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE (AND QUIET WEATHER) WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN OUR NORTH POSSIBLY DROPPING BELOW 0 DEGREES...
WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH AND NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE
COLD SNAP APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES START
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
THEY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL
DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

MOSTLY MVFR WAS PRESENT TO START THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS IN
PLACES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT WILL BRING A WINDSHIFT FROM SW TO N...AN INCREASE
IN RAIN/SHOWERS...AND LIKELY A LOWERING TO IFR OVERNIGHT. THE
POOR CONDITIONS WILL THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ044-050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW/GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL


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