Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 012222
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
622 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HAVE BLENDED LATE DAY OBS INTO THE EVENING FORECAST...WITH NO
CHANGES OF SUBSTANCE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER BUT THESE ARE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LACK OF FORCING.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME TOMORROW AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SKIPS ACROSS
NORTHERN KY. MODELS SHOW SOME PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE BUT DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE KY/VA BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. FOG IS POSSIBLE BOTH NIGHTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS AND ALONG RIVER BEDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE REGION. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...A SMALL THREAT FOR A SHOWER
OR STORM WILL EXIST FROM TIME TO TIME. DECIDED TO REDUCE THE POPS
GIVEN BY THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SOME SINCE THAT HAS BEEN OVERDOING
IT RECENTLY. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERING THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 20C...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY THROUGH THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THANKS TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...EASTERN KENTUCKY IS
EXPERIENCING ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-5KT FEET.
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM


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