Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 040719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE
A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN
SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST.
AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO
THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS


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