Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290639 AAD
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
239 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Hourly grids were updated based on recent observations, satellite
and radar imagery, and the short term model consensus of
convection moving in or develop across parts of the area prior to
sunrise. Uncertainty remains in the extent of fog and how long it
will linger or even if this convection will develop. However,
radar returns upstream as well as warming cloud tops would suggest
that clouds advecting in may dissipate or be less extensive at
least for the next 2 to 3 hours. Additional convection could still
develop over the next 2 to 3 hours with the upstream shortwave
approaching with the boundary in the vicinity. An SPS will be
issued to highlight the areas of dense fog at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 1053 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Updated forecast to remove pops out of the east for the remainder
of the night. Models still show a wave moving in towards daybreak
that could spawn a few showers and storms just before
daybreak...especially near the I-75 corridor. Coverage should
increase as we head through tomorrow as instability builds again
over the region. Temperatures should hold fairly steady the rest
of the night as dewpoint depressions are already quite low and
temps have nowhere to go. This will set up areas of valley fog
overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 723 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

With the heavier rain rates exiting the area, have cancelled the
remaining portion of the flash flood watch. Looks like a lull in
activity is expected through the rest of the evening and much of
the overnight hours. A weak wave to the west may move in late
tonight, bringing the threat of a few showers or storms back into
the area towards dawn.

UPDATE Issued at 513 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Opted to let the flash flood watch go for much of the area given
the lack of sufficient rainfall rates. Still some higher rainfall
rates to move through southeast Kentucky, so will maintain the
watch down that way for now. May be able to revisit the need for
the watch in the next few hours as things move on out. Looks
fairly dry back behind this batch of rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Latest surface analysis shows a surface low just southwest of the
forecast area, along the central KY/TN border. This surface low
should continue to lift northeast through the evening and early
overnight hours, spreading showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Looks like these showers will be lighter overall than
rainfall earlier in the day. However, still cannot rule out
locally heavy rain mainly in the eastern portions of East
Kentucky. Fortunately, the Bluegrass region looks to be spared
from additional heavy rainfall as drier air is quickly building
east towards Lexington, per latest Visible imagery.

The surface low should be east of the area prior to 12Z tomorrow
with showers exiting southwest to northeast during the overnight
hours. Depending on rainfall coverage overnight, in conjunction
with a very saturated ground, there is the potential for dense
fog to develop. This will be the primary concern overnight
tonight.

Additional upper level waves will move through the broad trough
that is situated over the area. This will allow for continued
shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon through the end
of the period. Though, coverage will be more scattered in nature
compared to today.

Temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s tomorrow with more
sunshine in place, whereas morning lows will stay mild, around 70
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Upper level wise a large scale trough will setup across much of
the Eastern CONUS, meanwhile the upper level high will be
suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to
hang on through much of the period before a ridge builds back east
from the Southern and Central Plains by mid to late week. Overall
models are in decent agreement with the overall large scale upper
level pattern. Now in terms of the surface we are looking at a
pesky front to be the feature of interest at least through
Tuesday. This will interact with upper level waves riding through
the flow to bring chances of storms to the region. Overall best
chances for pops right now will be Saturday before signals become
less defined. Particularly as the quasi stationary front drops
south of the region by Tuesday. The best chances after this look
to be more in the far east and southern portion of the CWA. All
this said for most days this will be diurnally driven convection.
The temperatures will be near to slightly below average before
climbing back to bit above average by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

A lull in shower and storm activity is ongoing at this time, with
the stronger returns and colder cloud tops heading into Middle TN
and toward the Cumberland Plateau. Locally fog and low stratus is
observed. Many locations south of I 64 are reporting IFR or lower
vis in fog or low stratus at this time. With a shortwave
approaching and the boundary in the vicinity, the threat for a
shra or tsra should return by the 9z to 13z period, and
during peak heating on Friday. Overall coverage may remain low,
isolated to scattered so confidence to include more than VCTS in
was night high enough at this time. At this time, we have IFR or
lower in fog or low stratus for the first 3 to 7 hours of the
period where debris clouds and additional cloud development and
convection should lead to the fog dissipating by 3 to 7 hours into
the period. The exception is at KSYM, where MVFR stratus or
stratocu is anticipated. Outside of convection, a gradual
improvement into MVFR and eventually VFR should occur thereafter
through 20Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JP


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