Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 020805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...SO THE RAIN
ACCOMPANYING IT IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH 11 OR 12Z THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE BE AN ISSUE THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE PRECIP AND FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN
12 AND 13Z. ONCE THE FRONT HAS MOVED OFF WELL TO OUR
EAST...EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. OUR NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAK IMPULSE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...PHASES WITH
A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKYS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MORPH INTO A WARM
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN SYSTEM. AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...LIGHT
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT ALONG IT. AT THE ONSET OF THE
EVENT...WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT...OVERRIDING COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
RAIN FALLS INTO THE COLD AIR BELOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM OCCURRING. THE WARM FRONT IS
THEN PROGGED TO STALL JUST TO OUR NORTH. AFTER THIS HAPPENS...A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND BEGIN
PUSHING THE BOUNDARY EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO ALSO BEGIN PUSHING
EAST...TRANSFORMING THE BOUNDARY INTO A POTENT COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND COULD LEAD TO FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE
AREA. AREAS PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING WILL BE THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVER BASINS...WHOSE
HEADWATER AREAS STILL HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW COVER IN PLACE.
ENOUGH SNOW HAS ALREADY MELTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TO CAUSE
THE GROUND TO BE COMPLETELY SATURATED. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RUNOFF ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
INTO AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED
TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL START OUT QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL...WITH TODAYS HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT COOL OFF
NEARLY AS MUCH AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AS WINDS
WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE SOUTHEAST...LEADING TO DOWNSLOPE WARMING
IN OUR EAST AND ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
THE MAIN PUSH OF WARM AIR IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN ADVECTING WARM
AIR DIRECTLY OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY COULD EASILY MAX OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...AR



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