Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281520 AAB

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1120 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Issued at 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Upslope flow with low level moisture lingering behind a surface
low and shortwave moving into the mid Atlantic states is leading
to bands of light rain and drizzle across East KY. Short term
models indicates that light rain or drizzle should continue off an
on through evening. The persistent low clouds should lead to lower
max T than the previous forecast. Hourly temperatures as well as
max temperatures have been adjusted accordingly with hourly pops
adjusted for radar and the latest trends.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Issued another quick update to touch up the PoP and Wx grids
through the first part of the morning and also to hit the latest
obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

07z sfc analysis shows a low pressure moving through the Ohio
Valley. This brought strong to severe thunderstorms to the area
during the evening hours. Now the bulk of these initial showers
and storms have moved off to the east while a few lighter ones
trail back toward the system`s cold front now pressing through
western Kentucky. Conditions remain quite mild overnight as the
moist environment, south to southwest breezes, and overcast
conditions are supporting temperatures in the mid 50s - or just a
degree or two higher than the dewpoints. Patchy fog is also noted
in the wake of the more steady rainfall that cleared out earlier.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a trough passing through
Kentucky this morning as it moves off to the East Coast by
evening. This will be followed by rising heights and broad ridging
through the mid part of the country tonight into Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the next in a series of deep troughs will be moving
through the Four Corners region. This trough will break northeast
toward the High Plains on Wednesday with the timing and
placement similar among the models - though the GFS is coming in
weaker than the ECMWF at 00z Thursday. Downstream, this trough,
will help to pump up the ridge over Kentucky with energy staying
well to the north of our area.

Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature a cloudy day
with near normal temperatures as the typical diurnal rise is
hampered by west to northwest winds and cold advection. Scattered
to isolated showers will be the rule today with a diminishing
trend by afternoon as support moves off to the east. Plenty of low
level moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy into tonight
limiting terrain distinctions and supporting just some patchy
valley fog towards Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a bit
warmer of a day - helped by a late day return of southeast winds
and also some sunshine - though a nearby front and lower
thicknesses will keep a lid on this warmth.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for the
grids with some minor, spot adjustments made to temperatures
tonight. As for PoPs, have tamped them down faster than the
guidance today with low QPF and afternoon drying expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Mild conditions will return early in the period ahead of another
shortwave trough that will push into the region on Thursday. This
will send afternoon highs on Thursday well into the 70s. Moisture
will also be on the increase with a few isolated showers or storms
possible late in the day. Better forcing will slide east Thursday
night and Friday with widespread showers. The wave will be on top
of eastern Kentucky on Friday and will yield some instability
leading to a small chance for a few storms. The whole system will
exit Friday night with rain showers exiting the area. Most of the
weekend is setting up dry as a strong surface ridge slides by just
to the north. Another wave will take aim on the area early next
week, but still some uncertainty on timing of this next wave with
models quite a bit off. Either way, active pattern will continue.
In addition, mild conditions will continue through the weekend and
into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Still a concern for a passing shower through midday. Cigs will
remain in the IFR to low MVFR range for most places for entire day
- though some spots will likely see them rise up 1K to 1.5K by mid
afternoon before dropping again this evening and continuing low
through the night. Winds will gradually shift to west and
northwest behind a cold front this morning then stay light out of
that direction for the remainder of the TAF cycle.




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