Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 301801
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
101 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SENT A COUPLE OF UPDATES TODAY. IN A LATE MORNING UPDATE...
HIGHLIGHTED A BAND OF INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH DROPPED SOUTH
THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS SINCE
MOVED OUT...AND LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT TOWARD EVENING. BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS...HAVE RAISED HIGHS FOR TODAY A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN
OUR SW COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 755 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT TRENDS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALREADY
TRYING TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN OHIO...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THESE HOLES
WILL LIKELY FILL IN AS THE LAPSE RATES STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. A MORE ENHANCED BAND OF SNOW IS ALIGNED JUST
SOUTH OF A KFGX TO KHTS LINE. THIS WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
10 AM AND COLD PUT DOWN A QUICK QUARTER OF AN INCH IN PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SETTLING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ALOFT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND
TROUGHING ARE CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH A
PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

CLOUDY SKIES WITH MAINLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE READINGS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S.

THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN UP IN THE LOW LEVELS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ALOFT.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOLSTER THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES THANKS TO READINGS PUSHING 60
DEGREES IN SOME PLACES YESTERDAY WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW
RESTRICTED TO GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...ALTHOUGH A LIGHT
COVERING ON SOME SHADED AREAS ALONG ROADWAYS...AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES IS STILL POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMER
THAN LOWS FOR THIS MORNING...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST ON SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DUSK WITH DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR TO OVERCOME. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. AN UPPER LOW DISPLACED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS EJECTS A SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLANS WHILE
ANOTHER WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE POLAR FRONT JET MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. BY SUNDAY THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE
OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE...A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS RIGHT ALONG THE OH RIVER.
THE OVERALL TRACK WITH THIS LOW IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE TAKEN
IT THROUGH THE SOUTH BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED NORTH WITH THIS LOW TRACK AND THE MOST RECENT EURO AND GFS
HAVE A LOW TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MOS DATA SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS TREND AS HIGH TEMPS FOR SUNDAY ARE NEAR 50. THIS WOULD TEND TO
BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH MODEL TRENDS. THEREFORE...DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS
FOR SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
LOW WITH A COLDER AIR MASS JUST MOVING THROUGH A DAY EARLIER. DUE TO
THIS...WILL SEE SOME SNOW FALL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. IN
FACT...A GOOD HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGS LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY.

CURRENT MODEL TRENDS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH QUITE QUICKLY ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING BACK THROUGH AND CHANGING PRECIP BACK TO
SNOW. WITH THIS...A GOOD BIT OF OMEGA WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF A GOOD
BURST OF SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE HEAVIER SNOW EARLIER AS WELL. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HWO. THIS
FEATURE THOUGH EXITS THE REGION QUITE QUICKLY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS STILL SEEM TO BE ALTERING TRENDS AND STILL
LACK SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES. DID STAY CLOSE
TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT POPS INHERITED FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND DUE TO
THE DETERMINED INCONSISTENCIES.

THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF BREAK AS A BIT OF
RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST FINALLY EJECTS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...A SECOND WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ALONG
THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST AGAIN.
THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF RAIN
AND SNOW OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LITTLE CONFIDENCE CAN BE
PLACED IN THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE. WILL GO WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND
FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES AND MENTION MORE SNOW IN THE HWO FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD NEAR THE VA BORDER.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS WILL DIE DOWN BY EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







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