Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 212036

National Weather Service Jackson KY
336 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

High pressure will be the primary influence on the weather of
eastern Kentucky in the short term. A fast moving upper level
weather system will move across the region tonight, and will bring
broken to overcast low and middle level cloud cover to the area.
The system will be moisture starved, so no precipitation is
expected. Temperatures will be influenced strongly by the amount
of cloud cover that ends up forming, so went slightly above the
latest MOS guidance for tonights lows. The passing system tonight
will usher some cooler air into the area, so highs on Wednesday
are expected to only top out in the 40s across the area. Another
shot of cold air is in store for Wednesday night, with lows in
the mid to upper 20s on tap for Thanksgiving morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 PM EST TUE NOV 21 2017

Generally good agreement among model solutions today. We continue to
see a progressive and amplified pattern across the CONUS. Only
feature of real interest for our area will be a fast moving short
wave trough and its associated surface cold frontal boundary which
will push through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by next
weekend. Models have been fairly consistent in bringing this system
through our area dry, keeping any shower activity to our north. As a
result our sensible weather will remain dry though models do suggest
a shot at some rain just beyond the forecast window. Temperatures
will then fluctuate between brief periods of cooler then warmer
weather. We start out rather cool for Thanksgiving Day, then
moderate a bit by week`s end before dropping briefly again to wrap
out the holiday weekend. Temperatures moderate once again by the end
of the forecast window. Overall temperature will average at or just
below norms for this time of year.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

The TAF period will start off with scattered to broken layers of
mid-level and high clouds. These clouds should persist through
early this evening. Overnight, clouds should scatter out between 1
and 6Z, before a passing upper level disturbance brings scattered
to broken clouds to the TAF sites once again between 6 and 11Z.
The second round of clouds may also include a scattered to broken
layer of low level clouds at each TAF sites between 9 and 11Z.
Those clouds should scatter out early Wednesday morning as the sun
rises and drier air filters into the area from the northwest.




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