Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191023
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
623 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Showers and storm coverage in western Kentucky has really
increased this morning as expected. Hi-res models continue to
support this activity dying off as it slowly advances into central
than eastern Kentucky by midday or early afternoon. Thus, current
weather and pop grids remain on track. Better threat appears to be
shifting into the evening hours centered around 00z in the west.
This activity will then die off as it tries to shift east after
00z. Plan to freshen up grids this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Valley fog is once again in place early this morning, but has not
been quite as extensive as in past nights. In fact some of the
more typical foggy spots haven`t reported any dense fog yet,
unlike the past few nights. The fog will likely dissipate a bit
faster this morning for this reason.

Another mild day is on tap as we should see a good deal of
sunshine again today. A mid level vort max will work east across
the Ohio river valley today, producing scattered to numerous
showers/storms across western, then central Kentucky. The wave
will begin to dampen as it works east into the ridge axis over the
southeastern states. This combined with decreasing instability and
almost no shear will lead to a rapid weakening as this activity
attempts to move into eastern Kentucky. It looks like activity
should start to move into the area after 4 pm this evening. Hard
to gage how far east activity will make it before fading away, but
will carry some isolated showers into the east before going back
to a dry forecast tonight. If we can clear out behind the
weakening showers, we will stand a decent shot for more dense
valley fog tonight as dewpoints will start off a bit higher going
into the overnight period.

The slow moving mid level trough will be slow to exit to the east
on Wednesday and could spark a few showers or storms in the east
or southeast before it moves away from us by mid to late
afternoon. Again lack of shear will keep activity fairly weak, and
may even be hard to see any thunder with such poor storm
organization expected. Going with persistence on highs for
Wednesday as the mild weather will persist for another day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

The models are in good agreement with an amplified long wave
pattern to take shape across the CONUS into the weekend, as
deeper troughing anchors across the West. Meanwhile, a seasonably
strong ridge will develop from the lower Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley. By early next week, the western trough and
western Atlantic tropics will put the squeeze on the ridge,
dampening it as it shifts off to the east and northeast.

For eastern Kentucky, above normal temperatures will continue to
be the main weather highlight through the period. Highs will
average in the low to mid 80s each day. Lows will start out in the
low to mid 60s, before drier air advects in by the second half of
the weekend, allowing for some upper 50s in the valleys. Thursday
looks to be the only day when a few showers may threaten the
area, before the ridge becomes established. After Thursday, it
looks to be mainly dry through early next week, as the ridge
dominates across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 623 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2017

Fog hasn`t been quite as bad as the past few nights due to some
cloud cover moving into the region. A few areas have seen
visibilities drop, specifically KSME. This fog will lift by 13z,
with VFR conditions returning. A few showers or storms will try to
work into the area today, but will encounter a hostile environment
and thus, expect showers/storms to weaken as they attempt to move
into the area today. The better shot may be early evening, but
chances for the far east still do not look that good. After the
rain chances diminish this evening, skies may clear off again,
leading to another night of valley fog. Indications are that the
fog tonight could be a little worse with dewpoints running a tad
higher.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS



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