Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250550 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Ingested the latest obs into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends. Aside from that, no update to the forecast
was required.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Forecast is pretty much on track. Eastern valley temps are running
a bit lower than forecast. Brought hourly grids in line with obs
and nudged overnight lows down a degree or two where temps were
cooling faster than expected. Freshened up the zones...basically
removing evening wording. Looks like a very nice if not a tad
cool overnight period. Still expecting an increase in clouds
later, especially in the western and central zone locations.

UPDATE Issued at 833 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

No major updates to the forecast this evening. Did adjust grids
towards latest hourly trends. Also made some minor adjustments to
overnight temps. Models showing some mid level cloudiness
overspreading the area from west to east during the predawn time
frame. Consequently expect to a see non-diurnal trend to
overnight lows. Exception may be the east as thicker cloud cover
arrives only just a couple hours before or during sunrise. No
changes to the zone package, only grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

High pressure squarely overhead has led to a calm and sunny day
across eastern Kentucky. Temperatures will top out in the low to
mid 80s by late this afternoon with evening readings falling
through the 70s and into the upper 60s.

Mid to high cloud cover will begin to stream in this evening and
tonight as high pressure moves east with backing flow taking shape
aloft. This will give way to an infiltration of moisture out of
the Gulf of Mexico as top-down moistening quickly occurs after
midnight. Surface ridging will maintain a longer residence time
nearer the Virginia state line, therefore allowing for cooler
valley temperatures in the lower 50s. Elsewhere, generally looking
at valleys falling into the low to mid 50 degree range with ridges
remaining in the mid 50s to near 60. Valley fog should be less
prominent tonight with the increasing cloud cover, with better
chances being across the valleys of far eastern Kentucky.

Precipitation chances will then be on the increase during the day
Wednesday as increasing instability will promote thunderstorm
chances by late morning through the afternoon. Low level forcing
will be nonexistent, outside of the higher terrain. Lift will
therefore depend on shortwave energy moving through the developing southwest
flow aloft. Any storms that develop will be of the pulse variety
given anemic deep layer shear of 10-15 knots. Instability may very
well end up materializing to much less than the 500-1000 J/KG of
SBCAPE forecast if low clouds persist as negligible if any mid
level cooling takes place. Storm chances should then diminish with
the loss of daytime heating Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Models continue to be in good agreement with the overall pattern
heading into the weekend. A summer like pattern will be setting up
across the area with mid and upper level ridging over the southeast
United States, and the jet stream lifting northward. We will remain
on the periphery of the upper level ridging, which means occasional
isolated to scattered convection can be expected for late in the
week and into the early part of the weekend.

By late in the weekend, models continue to indicate a tropical or
subtropical wave moving onshore somewhere in the southeast United
States. Exactly if and where this occurs is still in question, with
the 12z GFS suggesting the system would move northwest from South
Carolina bringing deep moisture along with increasing rain chances
to eastern KY early next week. However, the 12Z ECMWF indicates
impacts with this system will remain east of the Appalachians. Both
the  GFS and ECMWF are continuing trends they`ve shown in recent
runs. So while they are not in agreement with each other they are
consistent. Confidence in any specific model solutions for Sunday
onward is lower than normal, but based on latest guidance and the
standard model blend will end up with a forecast with daily rain
chances increasing each day from Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Mid level
deck will overspread the area overnight. Could see some patchy fog
in the most sheltered valley locations but not expecting any
influence at area terminals at this time. Winds will be light
until tomorrow when they increase from the southwest at 5-10 kts.
Mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms will move across eastern
Kentucky beginning early this morning and lasting through early
Wednesday evening. These showers and storms should remain
scattered enough to not warrant mentioning in the tafs at this
time.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...AR



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