Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271915
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME LOW LEVEL
DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA...AND SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND SHOWERS APPROACH FROM OUR WEST. SOME RADAR
RETURNS HAVE SHOWN UP JUST SOUTH OF THE JKL OFFICE IN THE LAST
HALF HOUR...BUT ARE QUITE LOW AND LIGHT. WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO
FIND ANY ACTUAL PRECIP HITTING THE GROUND OUT OF THIS...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IN CASE ANY UPDATES TO POPS NEED TO BE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING
WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD BACK IN OUT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MAIN BATCH OF PRECIPITATION HAS WORKED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY SOME REMAINING VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SETTLED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
BORDERING VIRGINIA...WHERE LOWER 30S AND POSSIBLY HIGH 20S ARE IN
PLACE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND THIS WILL
HELP TO INITIATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN SOME THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE. WILL
LEAVE OUT A MENTION FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL WITHIN THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO FINISH AS LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES COOL OFF ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES LATER THIS EVENING...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LOWS
GETTING DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW...AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS NOT SURPRISING
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE SHORT WAVES
THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...PROVIDING FOR A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF WARMER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AFTER A VERY
COLD START TO THE DAY SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT
OF THE MS VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING
THEIR WAY TOWARDS KY ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND POINTS TOWARDS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE
FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH WILL KEEP EVEN SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN OUT OF THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL AFTER 6 PM ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
BECOMING LIKELY ALMOST AREA WIDE SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
THEN DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AFTER THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SYSTEM...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE ARE AGAIN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND THUS
QUESTIONS ON WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL YIELD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CHANCE OR LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

WITH THE ZONAL FLOW A FAIRLY MILD WEEK WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DESPITE DEVELOPING AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER...MOST OF EASTERN KY
REMAINS UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KY AND MOVE INTO EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CIGS COULD
DROP DOWN TO 3KT FEET AROUND THE SAME TIME...HOVERING THE
THRESHOLD BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT
AND CAUSE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VIS RESTRICTIONS. JUST INCLUDED VCSH
AT THIS TIME AS IT IS STILL UNCLEAR EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN THESE
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN RELATION TO THE AIRPORT SITES. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DRIVING THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING CAUSING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SUBSIDE. CIGS
SHOULD BOUNCE BACK UP TO VFR CONDITIONS AND SCATTER OUT
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
OUT OF THE NW AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW


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