Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251741
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Will see isolated to at times scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop with increasing instability this afternoon. Development
will be limited by a lack of forcing, thus any microscale
shortwave impulses and the higher terrain will be the main lifting
mechanisms.

UPDATE Issued at 1127 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Steady stream of mid-high clouds pushing through central and into
eastern Kentucky. Main concentration of precipitation remains
focused across far western Kentucky with isolated showers to the
east. Still expecting to see isolated to scattered development
with diurnal heating this afternoon, with best chances locally in
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

More of the same to report in the short term portion of the
forecast. The model data all still suggesting a warm and muggy air
mass will be in place across the region for the next several days.
Temperatures are expected to run well above normal for the rest of
the week, with day time highs routinely topping out in the 80s
each day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will also be
possible today through tomorrow as a weak wave of low pressure
moves from west to east across the Ohio and Tennessee valley
regions. The best time for thunderstorm activity will likely be
from the late morning through early evening hours today and
tomorrow. Winds will generally be from the south at 5 to 10kts
during the day time periods and light and variable tonight. Some
patchy valley fog will be possible early this morning and again
late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 426 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Ridging over the southeast conus will be the most influential
feature for our area during the early part of the period.
However, we will be along its periphery, and perturbations in the
westerlies to our north and west may be enough to bring a few
showers and thunder storms at times. The greatest pop will remain
further north and west.

during the weekend, what would appear to be a subtropical low will
move northwest toward the south carolina coast and then slow down.
the gfs and ecmwf still disagree on what happens next. the gfs
inches the low very slowly to the west or northwest, and allows
deep moisture off the atlantic to spiral/pivot well inland over
ky. meanwhile, the ecmwf turns the low very slowly to the
northeast, and keeps the deep moisture to our east. Being that
the system is separated from the westerlies, is handled in
different fashions by the models, and is still at a long time
range, confidence in the actual outcome is low. with the
persistence of the gfs, have allowed for some slightly elevated
pops early next week, but only around 30%, as opposed to the 20%
pops leading up to that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

VFR conditions to largely prevail through early Thursday
afternoon as middle to high clouds stream in complete with an
afternoon cumulus field. Not expecting any widespread ceilings to
threaten VFR criteria, but isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Have
elected to keep mention out of all TAFs given expected low
coverage, but could very well see brief MVFR criteria where a
storm passes overhead. South to southwest winds should remain
below 10 knots this afternoon before further diminishing this
evening and tonight.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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