Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242359
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
759 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT
WINDS...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ON PAR WITH THE
INHERITED FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS TO ASSESS IF
ANY UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED LATER IN THE SHIFT...BUT FOR
NOW...THINGS ARE ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT
HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND
GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WHICH AMPLIFIES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THE FIRST FEW
DAYS. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ADVECTION OF VERY WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL LAG BEHIND...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER POPS. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS
SHOULD COOL ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE. THIS WOULD YIELD STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700MB
AND SIGNIFICANT CAPE LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A SEVERE WX THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELDS IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS TO ARRIVE. EVEN
SO...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR ALOFT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH HEATING ON MONDAY AS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES AWAY AND GETS SCOURED OUT. HAVE
CARRIED 20-30 PERCENT POPS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DRIER AIR
WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE AT MIDWEEK...AND PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE LARGE TROUGH...AND
PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. MODELS GENERATE PRECIP...BUT
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY...HAVE OPTED TO USE NOTHING HIGHER THAN
20 PERCENT POPS...AND ONLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE AVIATION FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL
BE HOW MUCH FOG WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE OVERNIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. AT
THIS TIME CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR GENERAL FOG...PARTICULARLY
IN OUR VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
AT THIS TIME...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF MVFR FOG AND
SJS AND JKL...WITH IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LOZ AND
SME. IF SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OFF AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...FOG
FORMATION SHOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE OVERNIGHT. THE QUESTION
WILL BE HOW DENSE WILL THE FOG BE AND HOW WIDESPREAD WILL THE DENSE
FOG BE THAT DOES FORM. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A GREAT DAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR





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