Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 051925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WV SAT AND HRRR HAS SUGGESTED THAT THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW HAS
PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN NC AND NW SC. OVERALL THE MESO
MODELS AND MORE SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS
PROGRESSION. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO
THE STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WE HAVE SEEN BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. THESE LAPSE RATES ARE COMBINING WITH THE ALREADY
REASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL COVERAGE HAS BEEN
SCATTERED WITH BETTER COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. RIGHT NOW
MODELS DO WANT TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...HOWEVER BIGGEST QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH
COVERAGE DO WE SEE. RIGHT NOW OPTED TO LOWER POPS GIVEN SOME OF
THE UNCERTAINTY. THIS UNCERTAINTY COMES WHEN LOOKING UPSTREAM
RADAR COVERAGE IS QUITE LOW COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAVE BEEN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND CAMS ARE NOT HITTING IT TOO HARD EITHER.
THE OTHER QUESTION WOULD BE HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER DO WE SEE
TONIGHT...RIGHT NOW KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EAST GIVEN THE
BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE. ALSO COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPS AND
FOG POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW WILL ADD SOME PATCHY DEEPER VALLEY FOG
AND JUST MINOR TEMP SPLIT GIVEN THE CLOUD UNCERTAINTY.

THIS UPPER LOW IS FAIRLY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AS A OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THEREFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF. THAT SAID THERE WAS A NEED FOR SHOWERS IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST FOR FRIDAY GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESS OF VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW AND CONTINUED PVA/SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTH. NOW FRIDAY NIGHT
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS UPPER LOW/OMEGA BLOCK BREAK DOWN
AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OR WAVE MAY
BRING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS TO THE FAR NORTH OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE MOST SPOTS SHOULD DRY OUT AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

CIGS ARE IN THE VFR TO MVFR RANGE TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...THE MVFR
SITES HAVE BEEN IN FLUX. THAT SAID OVERALL SYNOPTICALLY WE ARE
SEEING A UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACK RIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND NOW IT
HAS SHIFT SE INTO EASTERN TN THIS AFTERNOON. THE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER HAVE LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MAINLY AT
JKL...LOZ...AND SME. HOWEVER MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND TRACK INTO THE FAR EAST AND NORTHEAST. OVERALL EXPECTING LOW VFR
TO BE PREDOMINATE CIGS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY
AND UPSLOPE MAY HELP KEEP STRATO CU GOING...HOWEVER IF WE SEE
GREATER REDUCTIONS FOG CONCERNS WOULD NEED TO BE EVALUATED
PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY TAF SITES. OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON MORE
PAST THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ


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