Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK THIS EVENING. THE RESIDENTS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AS WELL IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. NO UPDATE TO THE
FORECAST IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

A PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ON TAP FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE TEXT FORECAST PRODUCT WAS IN GOOD
SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES MADE THERE AT ALL. THE LATEST OBS DATA WAS
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS WITH NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE.

STRATOCU IS THINNING QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN RESPONSE TO
THIS SUBSIDENCE AND EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OUT TOTALLY BY DUSK. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE CONGLOMERATES MORE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...
ALLOWING FOR MORE CALM WINDS...RADIATIVE COOLING WILL BE NEAR IDEAL.
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH SOME DENSE FOG
SCRUNCHED DOWN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A SUNNY DAY ONCE THE VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF. HIGHS
LOOK TO TOP OUT A TOUCH WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO REIGN ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE 40S FOR THE
VALLEYS...WHILE THE RIDGES STAY UP A BIT MORE...GENERALLY AROUND THE
50 DEGREE MARK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING DRY AND
COOL AIR IN FROM CANADA. THE LOSS OF NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE
MAY STRENGTHEN HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...LIKELY KEEPING THE
AREA DRY AND MILD. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE SOMETIME EARLY
TO THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SOME KIND OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES NORTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO ITS
POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES MAY GET PUSHED BACK EVEN FURTHER.
REGARDLESS...ANY SYSTEM THAT TRACKS NORTH WILL LIKELY KEEP US IN
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW...SO INITIALLY THERE IS GOING TO BE
LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME PRIOR TO ANY PRECIPITATION.
THUS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE VALLEYS
OF THE EASTERN KY COALFIELDS...WITH RAPID EXPANSION OVER THE LAST
HOUR. THE FOG IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KSJS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
THICKEN TO BELOW AIRPORT MINS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
UNFORTUNATELY...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THIS SITE...VIS AND CIGS MAY
BOUNCE AROUND A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM LOWER TO HIGHER
CATEGORIES. NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD KEEP IT OUT OF KJKL...KSME...AND
KLOZ...OTHER THAN MAYBE AN HOUR OR TWO OF MVFR AS THE FOG RISES FROM
THE VALLEYS NEAR DAWN. ONCE FOG DISSIPATES IN THE MORNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...HIGH PRESSURE AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR WEATHER DURING THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS /GENERALLY OUT
OF THE NE/ AND CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW






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