Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 170252 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1052 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1052 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

The forecast remains on track so far tonight. The latest obs were
ingested into the hourly forecast grids to establish new trends,
but no major changes to the forecast were necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 727 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

Forecast appears to on track so far this evening. Ingested the
latest observations into the hourly forecast to establish new
trends. Will issue an quick forecast update to remove outdated pre
first period from the zone forecast text product.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

Showers continue to push east across eastern Kentucky this
afternoon with much of the activity actually showing a slight
weakening trend over the past few hours. While a dry wedge is
working in from central Kentucky, more showers and storms are
starting to move in from the west. However, still quite some
distance for this additional activity to travel and it may not
make it here to capitalize on present instability. Thus, still
expect a gradual decrease in shower coverage heading into the
evening hours as the dry wedge works east across the area. A few
models show some isolated showers redeveloping late tonight, but
not a lot of forcing present except a weak low level jet. Perhaps
this would be enough for a few showers to pop up just prior to
daybreak.

As we head through the day tomorrow, a cold front will push east
into the Ohio river valley and bring a line of showers and storms
across eastern Kentucky through the evening hours. Models are in
pretty good agreement with this activity, so have trended higher
with the pops through the evening period. Activity will exit
southeast overnight with the front hanging up over the area.
However, subsidence behind departing showers/storms will lead very
little potential for additional activity, but a few isolated
showers would remain possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

The upper levels will be characterized by multiple long wave
troughs suppressing the ridging and upper level high well to the
south. The first trough will lightly dig into the Ohio Valley with
higher influence toward the Great Lakes. This will help swing a
cold front toward the region Friday, but this front becomes
diffuse as it progresses east. This could leave a boundary near
the region and therefore did keep POPs going mainly in the
afternoon in the far southeast. The next wave will move through
Saturday but the POPs will stay mainly along and north of the I-64
corridor. After this heights rise and we see a break in the
weather for most through Monday. Guidance does suggest a small
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Monday in the north, but
most look to be spared for the eclipse at this time. Models are in
decent agreement that we begin to suppress heights and develop NW
flow toward the end of the period. This will open the door for
waves by Tuesday and Wednesday, and right now this looks to be
when we see the overall best coverage through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

Isolated rain showers will move across portions of eastern
Kentucky early this evening, but these will quickly dissipate as
the sun goes down and heating is lost. The area should be rain
free by 1Z or so. The TAF period should start out with mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies. The cloud cover should then
gradually increase overnight and through out the day on Thursday,
as an area of low pressure and its associated surface cold front
approach from the west. By around 21Z on Thursday, SYM and SME can
expected numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, as the cold
front begins to move across the area. JKL and LOZ should see
precipitation about an hour later at 22Z or so. SCT CB and BKN
middle level clouds are expected, with based averaging between 3.5
and 8K. Winds should be generally out of the southwest at 5 to 8
KTs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR



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