Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE...AND ANOTHER AREA OF RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP
ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

EXPECT THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY...AFFECTING LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
TEMPORARY INCREASE IN CLOUDS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOWER 60S WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WHERE LESS CLOUDS WILL RESIDE MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE NEAR
THE KY/TN BORDER. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WITH
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY. STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER THAN
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL WINDOW OF MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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