Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 031917
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

BASED ON WIND READINGS ACROSS THE REGION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO RESIDE FROM BETWEEN MOREHEAD AND FLEMINGSBURG...BACK TO THE
EAST TO FRANKFORT AND LOUISVILLE. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN WESTERN
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS ALLOWED FOR 2500J/KG OF SBCAPE TO
DEVELOP. IN ADDITION...WE ACTUALLY HAVE SOME 30-35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUE TO LIGHT UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN ALIGNED EAST TO WEST AND
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE
ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE AS WE HEAD OVERNIGHT...FRONT WILL STILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION IN THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT THROUGH TONIGHT. BY TOMORROW...FRONT FINALLY SLIPS
SOUTH TAKING THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH...HOWEVER...THE
BOUNDARY MAY STILL TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD BE MORE HIT OR MISS ON SATURDAY AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE TIMES OF PEAK INSTABILITY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE QUIETER WEATHER AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS/STORMS DIE OFF AROUND SUNSET. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN PLACES.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SKIES WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS...IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TONIGHT AS THE
LOWER LEVELS SATURATE BACK UP. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF/KAS
AVIATION...KAS


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