Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 052045
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM


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