Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 242141
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VERY MILD WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN TO HIGHS IN THE 40S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT SNOW BUT THE ECM IS DRY. THE FORECAST CONCERNS THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON SNOW CHANCES NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

PV ANOMALY WILL DROP QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. H850 MB WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 50 KTS AS THE ANOMALY DROPS THROUGH...WITH 500 METER WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 35 KTS OR SO. SOUNDING/PROFILE DATA INDICATES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO LOCAL
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. THESE STRONGER WINDS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A
CORRIDOR FROM AINSWORTH SOUTH THROUGH THE BROKEN BOW AREA. AS
MENTIONED...SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THESE WILL OCCUR MOSTLY
ALONG AND EAST OF AINSWORTH TO BROKEN BOW...ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
CLOSED SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TEMPERATURE
PROFILE SUPPORTS MOSTLY RAIN...SO WILL LEAVE ANY SNOW MENTION OUT OF
THE FORECAST.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
HOWEVER...WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE COOLED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS A BIT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR OOZES SOUTH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR VERY WARM
CONDITIONS MONDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST 500M AGL WINDS MONDAY NIGHT
NEAR 25KT WHICH WOULD KEEP THE ATM MIXED EVERYWHERE BUT THE VALLEYS
FOR LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S IN THE VALLEY. THE H850 MB
THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD TO THE LOWER TEENS CELSIUS MONDAY FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST AT 15 TO
25 MPH SUPPORTING DEEP MIXING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SWITCH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH. THE MODELS SUGGESTED LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO
LOWER 30S WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY WITH A THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS WRN KANSAS INTO WRN NEB. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TUESDAY IS SIMILAR TO MONDAY BUT KEEPS AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LIMITED
VERTICAL MIXING PREVAILING IN THAT AREA.

OTHER THAN THE CLOUDS WITH THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS
ARE GIVING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY SIGNAL WHICH COULD SUPPORT WARMER
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WOULD BE BEST ADDRESSED
USING THE RAP13 MODEL WHICH HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT SKILL WHEN LITTLE
CLOUD COVER OCCURS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THERMAL RIDGING CONTINUES TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IF THE MODELS ARE TOO FAST AS THE
CAN BE THE CASE AT THE DAY 5 FORECAST POINT THAN HIGHS IN THE 50S
SHOULD VERIFY. OTHERWISE WE MAY SEE 45 TO 55 FOR HIGHS. WINDS ARE
NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 KTS AT 500M AGL FOR 20 TO 30 MPH AT THE SFC.
THE MODELS SHOW MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WORKING INTO THE FCST AREA LATE
IN THE AFTN.

NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO LOWS WOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. COOLER
PACIFIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S. ON
FRIDAY...THE ECM AND GFS GIVE A GOOD SIGNAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND
DESPITE A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40S.

AS EXPECTED...THE MODELS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS NOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS LATCHED ON TO A VERY DEEP SUBTROPICAL
FETCH OF MOISTURE. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COMPLETE SATURATION TO
250 MB AT NORTH PLATTE WHICH IS NOT METEOROLOGICAL FOR JANUARY. FOR
NOW POPS ARE 20 PERCENT AND HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THERE HAS BEEN A WHOLE LOT OF WOBBLING GOING ON IN THE ECM AND GFS
WITH NEXT EAST COAST STORM AND THE GFS IS PROBABLY DOING THE SAME
OUT WEST HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR OUR AREA WILL BE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. LOCAL GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA. FOR THE MOST PART...CEILINGS WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE MVFR THRESHOLD...BUT BROKEN MVFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A KANW TO KBBW LINE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR






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