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000
FXUS63 KLBF 210524 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT H5 RIDGING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS WITH CLOSED LOW
UNDERNEATH OVER THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE 999MB LOW OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT
FROM LOW SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS OVER THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY AT 6 PM CDT. ELSEWHERE...A BROAD SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SANDHILLS...AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 25 MPH. A LINE
OF SHOWERS IS EXITING SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AROUND 7 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE IT STARTS PUSHING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM. FARTHER
SOUTH...DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AT A
MINIMUM. OVERALL...EXPECTING UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURE WISE VERY COOL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS BARELY REACHING THE LOWER 50S
TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

LONG TERM MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN EC
BRINGS IN A COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH ALL OF THE
WAFFLING WITH THIS PRESENT SYSTEM 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COME IN
CLOSER WITH THE EARLIER EC SOLUTIONS. CLOUDS CLEARING TUESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. HAVE GONE WITH COLDEST MAV GUIDANCE
FOR THE COOP STATIONS WITH +3C AT 850MB. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK
NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS DIMINISHING TO SPRINKLES. WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE
AGAIN GONE WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND WYOMING WITH STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE AND UPSLOPE FLOW. BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50KTS AND LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING COULD BE SEVERE WEATHER. GULF
OPENS WIDE AND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LOW SENDING STRONG WAVES THROUGH
WESTERN NEBRASKA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CARRIED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S SAT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS AON 4000 FT AGL WILL BECOME BROKEN AT 3500 FT
AGL TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 12 KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 30
KTS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TUESDAY
EVENING.

FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...MVFR CIGS OF 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 3000 FT AGL LATE TUESDAY EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO AROUND 12 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. GIVEN SCATTERED
COVERAGE...WILL HANDLE MENTION WITH A PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC