Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 011137
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
637 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS
THE WEST. DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 50S WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND
DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. TODAY A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST DURING
PEAK HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE. DRIER AIR IS FILTERING INTO THE REGION...WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS POINT TO LESS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
LATER TODAY AS DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM MORE LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED WITH BETTER
WIND THREAT THAN RAINFALL THIS EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
THIS EVENING THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY...AS DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 70S. THEN TONIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND RANGING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECT WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD
BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL ACTUALLY BE DOWN RIGHT HOT...WITH HIGHS AT
MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS AT 90 DEGREES OR ABOVE. MID 90S ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. THE WARM UP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS A
STRONG PV ANOMALY PUSHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IT WILL BE QUITE
COOL BEHIND THE FRONT...AS A MIXTURE OF CANADIAN AND PACIFIC AIR
INVADE THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S...AND ONLY UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION...CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW STRATUS
AT KVTN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THIS HAS YET TO MATERIALIZE
BASED ON SATELLITE AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. HAVE LEFT MVFR
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONSISTENCY BUT FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CIGS AND BR IS WANING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH FROM
LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA. CHANCES DECREASE WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION...SO NO MENTION OF -TSRA IN THE KLBF TAF FOR NOW.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED ONCE THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KECK
SHORT TERM...KECK
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MARTIN






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