Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 280004
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
704 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

995MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT H5 NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW FROM SHERIDAN WYOMING
TO SUPERIOR NEBRASKA WITH MAIN CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER
SUPERIOR NEBRASKA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM LOUISIANA
THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA.
ALEUTIAN LOW WITH CLOSED LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

POTENT OCCLUDING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL MIX INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY DIMINISHING. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE AS THE SFC LOWS WEAKENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A TRANSITION DAY THURSDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BE VEERING FROM NORTH TO EAST NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON
AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE CONTINUED COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WITH NEXT
SYSTEM OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT THE PRESENT. HAVE FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST. PRESENT SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CALIFORNIA SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
INTO EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. POPS INCREASING TO
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN.
HYDROLOGY MAY BECOME A CONCERN. RAIN SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS FRIDAY AND THEN RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AND SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
GRADUALLY ENDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES TO THE EAST. HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD SEE
SOME SNOW MIX IN FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE LEFT
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY BUT COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.
HIGHS IN THE 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND 50S ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. MAY HAVE TO PUT OUT SOME FROST PRODUCTS IN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREDOMINATE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...WHILE MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...CIGS RANGING FROM
2500 TO 5000 FT AGL ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH SHOWERS
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING. FOR THE KVTN
TERMINAL...EXPECT CIGS BLO 1200 FT AGL TONIGHT WITH SOME CIGS
FALLING OFF TO 700 FT AGL AFTER MID EVENING. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO
1500 TO 2000 FT AGL THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...BUTTLER


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