Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 180837
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
337 AM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

At 08z...A cold front was located from western North Dakota into far
northern Wyoming. Isolated showers or thunderstorms have develop
from nctrl Kansas into central and eastern Nebraska and eastern
South Dakota. Coverage however remains very isolated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Today...An upper trough will extend south into the Montana and
Wyoming and the Northern Plains from a closed upper low located in
northern Manitoba. This will drive a cold front southeast into
Sheridan and Cherry county this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm
develop may develop along the front by mid to late afternoon. Any
thunderstorms should remained confined northwest of a valentine
through Oshkosh line. Highs today remain at or a few degrees lower
than previous forecast and will range from the upper 80s Sheridan
county to the lower to mid 90s remainder of forecast area. Southwest
winds this morning will back slightly to the south and southwest and
increase to 15 to 25 mph most areas by afternoon. Fire weather
conditions will become elevated this afternoon with detailed
highlighted in the fire weather discussion below.

Tonight...A cold front will track across western Nebraska and will
just clear the forecast area by 12Z. Behind the front, a well
defined lead shortwave will track from eastern Wyoming and Colorado
into the panhandle and western Nebraska. This will provide enhanced
mid level lift in advance of the shortwave leading to gradual
precipitation across the area. The highest pops will be across north
central Nebraska, while slight chance pops arrive across
southeastern areas no earlier than late evening. After midnight, pops
increase to 40 to 50 percent across the southeast. Winds behind the
front fairly light north at 5 to 15 mph. Lows from the upper 50s
northwest to the lower 60s southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

Strong shortwave aloft will pivot southeast across the Dakotas
and Nebraska Friday and Friday night. Good lift in a moist post
frontal environment should allow for some fairly widespread
precipitation in the form of showers and elevated thunderstorms.
Not expecting any of the storms to be severe, as those should
remain east and southeast of the area along and just ahead of the
cold front. Otherwise a cool day Friday with mainly cloudy skies
and a Canadian airmass filtering south into the area behind the
aforementioned cold front. Expect highs to range from the mid 60s
across northwest Nebraska, with upper 60s to lower 70s elsewhere.
The system is quick moving, and will already be located over
Minnesota by midday Saturday. Decent drying aloft should allow
for mostly sunny skies by afternoon. Highs were bumped up a few
degrees into the lower 70s with the previous forecast, and will
stick with those due to the expected afternoon sunshine.

A warm up begins Sunday and lasts through the first of the
upcoming week. Fairly warm H850mb temperatures will overspread the
area, with highs climbing from near 80 Sunday to the mid and upper
80s Monday and Tuesday. By midweek, a strong upper level low will
track east across Canada. A trailing cold front will stall across
the region as it moves south, and expect this to be the focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Conditions are currently quiet across western and north central
NE. VFR prevail across the forecast area with some high clouds
present across portions of north central and central NE from
earlier convection. No more showers or thunderstorms are
anticipated the rest of tonight. Patchy fog may develop across
portions of Lincoln and Custer counties this morning, specifically
along the river valleys and climo prone areas. Current thinking
is a brief period with visibility reduced to MVFR.

Tomorrow...A front roughly oriented SW-NE is expected to enter the
far northwest portion of the forecast area by early afternoon.
Latest guidance and trends suggest front will bisect the center
of the forecast area, south and east of KVTN, roughly by late
evening. Winds will shift primarily from SSW to N with its
passage. Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
afternoon north and west of a line from Ogallala to Ainsworth --
with the greater chances roughly north and west of a line from
Lisco-Bingham-Nenzel. Some strong or severe thunderstorms are
possible in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

A cold front will approach the area late today as the upper ridge
breaks down. This will produce compressional heating and push temps
into the lower and mid 90s. The dry line will surge east with common
west of Ainsworth through Brady. Some mid to upper 40s expected parts
of southwest Nebraska. This will produce minimum rh values of 20 to
25 percent across much of the central forecast area, and the upper
teens in zones 210 and 219. In addition to the low rh values will be
gusty southerly winds. Winds of 15 to 25 are forecast early to mid
afternoon, then diminish late afternoon to early evening. With
conditions not reaching critical criteria, the fire weather watch
will be cancelled, and will highlight the elevated fire weather
conditions in the fire weather forecast and the HWO.

The cold front will slide across the area overnight with
winds becoming northerly and will also see a chance for rain post
frontal.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon
through this evening for NEZ206-208-210.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg



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