Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 110931
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
331 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The next arctic front, currently moving through the Srn Canadian
prairies, arrives in nrn Neb this evening. The NAM and GFS soundings
suggest sufficient low level saturation for a period of light snow
and flurries across nrn Neb. Less than an inch accumulation is
expected given the shallow moisture and weak lift located below
750mb.

The temperature forecast today uses a blend of the rapid refresh
models plus bias correction for highs in the upper 20s to lower 40s.
NOHRSC, the remote sensing group for snow cover and home of the
National Snow Analysis map, indicates the snow cover across the
Panhandle is very light. This would support the highs in the lower
40s as h850mb temperatures continue to rise toward 0C today.
Elsewhere the forecast is a close match to the ECM guidance which is
about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the NAM and GFS temperature
guidance.

Since the ECM appeared to be the favorable tool for the temperature
forecast today, it was the basis for the temperature forecast
tonight for lows in the single digits. The ECM guidance plus bias
correction was blended with the previous temperature forecast.

Bora conditions are underway in Valentine with temperatures well
below zero and winds around 10 mph. This could last throughout the
night until shortly after sunrise. A wind chill advisory is in place.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

High pressure will slowly drift eastward on Monday giving way to a
shortwave on Monday night. This shortwave will bring scattered snow
chances to portions of north central Nebraska. The best locations to
see snow will be north of Highway 2. Snow accumulations are expected
to be under a half inch.

For the most part, the remainder of the extended period will remain
dry. The exception will be on Wednesday night into Thursday when
there is another isolated chance of some snow showers. Confidence is
very low with this Thursday snow and therefore have only put in low
chance pops (near 30 percent) into the forecast.

With limited chances for snow over the next week, the main story for
the extended will be the return to milder temperatures. A cold day
will start off the week on Monday with highs in the mid teens to mid
20s. High temperatures steadily rise through Wednesday when highs
are expected to top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temperatures
will return into the 30s and 40s for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

Expect mainly clear skies over the next 24 hours with some passing
high cloudiness expected overnight and into Sunday. A frontal
boundary will approach northern Nebraska Sunday evening. Behind
the front, ceilings will fall to around 3000 FT AGL at the KVTN
terminal after 04z Monday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning for
NEZ005.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...Buttler



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