Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 091821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1221 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

A highly amplified H5 pattern was present across the CONUS and
Canada tonight. Closed low pressure was located over Hudson Bay
with a trough of low pressure extending ssw into central Mexico.
West of this feature, high pressure was located over northern
California with a ridge extending north into northern portions of
the Yukon. Across western and north central Nebraska, north
northwesterly flow was present and dry conditions continue to
persist across the region. At the surface: low pressure was
present north of Milwaukee Wisconsin with a cold front extending
west into northeastern South Dakota. Across western and north
central Nebraska, westerly and northwesterly winds were occurring
and skies were mostly clear. Readings as of 3 AM CST ranged from
22 at North Platte to 33 at Ainsworth and Broken Bow.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

For this morning, a cold front will back into northeastern
Nebraska, then lift east as a warm front later this afternoon.
This feature will impact mainly the northeastern areas resulting
in highs in the upper 30s to around 40. Across southwestern
Nebraska, highs will reach the upper 50s. With surface heating
this afternoon, some higher winds around H850 may mix down to the
surface, especially in the far southwest this afternoon where
highs are expected to be in the upper 50s. Bufkit soundings for
KIML indicate mixing to H85 this afternoon with gust potential
approaching 25 MPH for a 1 to 2 hour window this afternoon. With
forecast dew points in the middle teens in the far southwest,
relative humidity this afternoon bottoms out in the 15 to 20
percent range as well for a 1 to 2 hour period. This will lead to
near critical fire weather conditions in the far southwest this
afternoon, however critical fire weather conditions are not
expected attm. Will forgo a RFW ATTM and will continue to monitor.
For tonight, winds will weaken around sunset as we decouple
quickly. Lows tonight will bottom out in the 20s with the coolest
readings in the Platte River Valley and western Sandhills, thanks
to the light westerly drainage winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

The highly amplified ridge will remain over the western Conus
through the extended.  This will place the plains under strong
northwest flow, which will keep conditions dry with temperatures
largely above normal.  Highs will range from the 40s to lower 60s
through the extended, with lows in the 20s and 30s.  The northwest
flow will usher a series of upper waves down the high plains with
increasing upper level winds.  Winds will increase Monday afternoon
with increased mixing from a front.  Wind speeds were trended toward
the CONSMOS which indicates gusts in excess of 45 mph possible
Monday afternoon.  These winds combined with the dry conditions will
increase the potential of large range fire growth, but critically
low RH is not forecast.  Additional fronts/waves arrive every 36-48
hours, which will increase winds and cool off temperatures slightly,
but no Arctic airmass intrusions are anticipated.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2017

VFR will prevail under clear skies the next 24 hours. Winds will
remain northwest today through Sunday at 5 to 15 kts with local
gusts to 25 kts.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Taylor is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.