Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 170029 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
729 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Closed low...mature cyclone...over the Northeast CONUS with most
precipitation well offshore. Upper ridge building into the Missouri
River Valley northwest into central Canada and the western Hudson
Bay. Closed low over the Gulf of Alaska with waves coming onshore in
the Pacific Northwest.

&&

.FORECAST...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT
Thu Mar 16 2017

Models in fair agreement in timing of fronts moving across
western Nebraska through the forecast period and have good
confidence in the forecast. Will carry the red flag warning into
the evening hours with gusty winds and low RH`s. In the near term
a Pacific cold front will move across western Nebraska tonight.
Possibility of a stray shower mainly north but with drier air in
place have left forecast dry for now. This will keep boundary
layer mixed and temperatures in the 30s for over night lows.
Cooler air moving in on Friday with temperatures still above
normals. Highs on Friday in the 50s north and 60s south with good
cold air advection. Strong northwest winds over north central
Nebraska to the east of Highway 83. Boundary layer remains mixed
and temperatures hold in the 20s and 30s as warmer under the ridge
moves east. Warmer air aloft...full sun and strong southerly flow
on Saturday will see temperatures rise into the 60s north central
and the 70s west some 10F to 20F degrees above normal. Lows in
the 40s Saturday night with warmer air aloft moving into forecast
area. 850mb temperatures in the low 20C with resultant surface
temperatures in the 70s north and the 80s south. This will be 20F
to 30F degrees above normal. Fire weather conditions may fall into
critical categories. Will late for later forecasts to see if
trend continues. This comes abruptly to an end as a cold front
moves through western Nebraska Sunday night into Monday. 850mb
temperatures ranging from 0C to 5c on Monday. Some mixed
precipitation expected with the Fropa. Will leave with a mix of
rain and snow for now. Temperatures on Monday in the 40s and 50s
closer to normal for the season and again on Tuesday. Temperatures
rebound some Wednesday and Thursday ahead of upper trough
approaching from the four corners region. Chances of precipitation
return.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued
at 730 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions expected across western Nebraska through Friday
afternoon. Winds will be the main aviation concern with west winds
gusting to 25kts shifting to the north behind a cold front as it
continues to drop south through 02z. Winds will gust out of the
northwest at 25 kts Friday afternoon east of a line from KBBW to
KVTN.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning will expire 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...Allen
FIRE WEATHER...Power



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