Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 240852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Stalled surface boundary across central Nebraska into northwest
Kansas. MCS ongoing across north central Kansas/south central
Nebraska. A small area of showers/thunderstorms across far northeast
Colorado and southwest Nebraska. This is following a mid level


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Morning showers and thunderstorms to impact southwest Nebraska
pushing into central Nebraska as mid level disturbance drifts to the
northeast. Not much in severe parameters in the models with this
wave and expect the showers to be general will little threat for
severe weather.

This changes by this afternoon. The next disturbance will eject
across the central Rockies by midday. Thunderstorms expected to fire
across the panhandle of Nebraska/northeast Colorado then lift to the
northeast into the forecast area. Sfc based cape is highest across
southwest Nebraska with around 2k j/kg also seeing pwats greater
than an inch so locally heavy rainfall is a possibility. Northwest
Nebraska on the other hand is not impressive for sfc based cape,
however elevated cape (MUCAPE) is over 2k j/kg and is in a favored
hail growth zone. Thus concern for severe thunderstorms, especially
large hail later today. Model congeal the activity into an MCS that
will track across the CWA overnight.

Temps for today with some pockets of sun initially, to aid in
warming highs into the mid 70s to around 80. Tonight in the wake of
the storms, dry air and cool temps across the west, upper 40s to
lower 50s. Clouds and showers keep much of north central in the
upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Weak surface high pressure builds into the central
Plains on Wednesday, allowing conditions to dry out. Plenty of
sunshine will result in temperatures reaching up into the low 80s
for much of the CWA (upper 70s across the northwest portion).
Thunderstorm and rain chances return on Thursday night, though, as a
surface low pressure system develops over Colorado and moves
northeastward. This low will continue to bring rain chances to
central Nebraska through Saturday with severe chances being low at
this time. Temperatures will drop a few degrees on Thursday and
Friday as a result of the rain showers (mid 70s on Thursday, low 70s
on Friday).

High pressure tries to build back into the region on Sunday,
however, this will be short-lived as the pattern of shortwave
troughs continue to move into the high plains for the beginning of
next week. Temperatures remain fairly steady through the weekend
with most locations observing high temps in the mid to upper 70s
through Monday, with a few isolated locations potentially observing
low 80s on Sunday and Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Over the next 18 hours, expect partly cloudy skies at both the
KLBF and KVTN terminals. Some scattered clouds AON 25000 FT AGL
are expected. Look for clouds to increase by late afternoon at
both terminals with 10000 FT AGL CIGS developing after 23Z
Tuesday. The threat for thunderstorms will begin to increase after
23Z Tuesday at the KVTN terminal and after 01Z Wednesday at the
KLBF terminal. Some strong to severe storms are possible after mid
evening Tuesday. SFC wind gusts to 45 KTS and small hail is
possible with VISBYS as low as 3 SM in moderate to heavy rain.
Since some timing issues exist as to when the strongest storms
will impact the terminals, a PROB30 group will be utilized late
Tuesday evening at both terminals.


Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Little change continues along the North Platte River as releases
hold steady and the heavy rain fell north of the basin. This could
change as rainfall, locally heavy, is possible later today. Will
continue to monitor. The minor wave has pushed through the Brady
gage along the Platte River with the gage reading starting to fall
slightly, still very near minor flood stage. Meanwhile the South
Platte River continues to run high, although no flooding at this
time. Again will need to monitor rainfall as locally heavy rainfall
is a possibility.


.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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