Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 151145
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

AT 08Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE ERN MT THROUGH
WYOMING AND COLORADO. SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 45 TO 50. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH. THE UPPER LOW CENTER EASILY IDENTIFIED
IN IR IMAGERY ACROSS NERN UTAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AN H5 CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
NRN UTAH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE UTAH/COLORADO
BORDER BY 00Z THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. MESOSCALE MODELS
INCLUDING THE ARW INDICATE INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS TO 40-45
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST OF THIS DRYLINE AS
WELL AS A TRIPLE POINT INVOF EXTREME NERN CO WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 500-800 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-3KM SHEAR NEAR
35KTS JUST EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS DRYLINE/TRIPLE
POINT...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO PRESENT IN THIS CORRIDOR FROM 8.5 TO
9C/KM. THE AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WEST OF AN ELLSWORTH THROUGH
STOCKVILLE LINE. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. POPS IN THESE AREAS ALSO NEAR 60 PERCENT. HIGHS TODAY
MAINLY FROM 63 TO 67 DEGREES WHICH IS NEAR A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND. SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY 15 TO 25 MPH.

MID EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...THE H7 LOW WILL BECOME
LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBR WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING. MAINLY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH POPS TO
AROUND 50 PERCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL
AND SERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S LBF AND ANW
EAST...WITH COOLER LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S EASTERN PNHDL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING
CLOSED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE THEN ON HOW LONG IT TAKES THE LOW TO PUSH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND THE TRACK. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE EC IS NOT THAT FAR
BEHIND. THE SREF/GEM ARE SLOWER YET WITH THE NAM THE SLOWEST AND
WEAKEST WITH THE LOW. EACH TRACK/TIMING RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES WITH WHERE THE PRECIP ENDS UP FALLING INTO THE
WEEKEND. GETTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT AS THE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS...THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS PWATS
SURGE TO 0.75 INCHES OR HIGHER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND WILL MENTION ISOLD T. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NW WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEARING
0C. WILL MENTION A BRIEF PERIOD OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY THE CONFIDENCE FALLS APART. INITIALLY STILL IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO CONTINUE HIGH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FASTER GFS DRAWS SOME DRY AIR /DRY SLOT/ INTO
SW NEB. THIS FAVORS THE PRECIP TO WRAP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE NAM WITH THE SLOWER/MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK...KEEPS THE NORTHERN CWA DRY. THE REST OF THE
MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE INBETWEEN. MODEL BLEND CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORED AS WE WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLEARED OF THE HIGH
PLAINS AND FORECAST BECOMES DRY. BOTH THE GFS/EC DEVELOP NW FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. A CLIPPER RIDES THE NW FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME DRY AIR AT THE
SFC AND TRACK CURRENTLY FAVORED TO THE SW AND FORECAST WILL BE
DRY.

NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A CLOSED LOW ROTATING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. NW
TO ZONAL FLOW IS REPRESENTED BY THE MODELS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SEASONAL TO SEASONAL WARM TEMPS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING
EAST ACROSS WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS UTAH AND COLORADO. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM TO CONTINUE WITH MVFR
CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN NEB.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...ROBERG






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