Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 210840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
340 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

The ongoing MCS across Scntl SD may brush Ncntl Neb for a few hours
this morning. This system should cast a boundary through Holt and
Custer County which would be the focus for isolated severe storm
development this afternoon and this evening. Wind damage is the
primary concern as the shear is weak with 500mb winds near 30kt.

The temperature forecast uses the HRRR EXP model exclusively as it
has been the best performing model since Monday. The combination of
H700mb temperatures of 15-16C...northwest winds...deep mixing and
summer solstice heating is expected to send temps into the low 100s
this afternoon.

There is a chance the dew point forecast of 60+F is too high along
and east of a line from Hayes Center to North Platte...Broken Bow to
Bartlett. If it verifies then heat indices will rise to over 100F.
No heat advisory will be issued for this forecast, the vertical
mixing will be very strong which could displace the moisture. A
special weather statement will be issued instead.

Blended guidance plus bias correction produces lows in the upper 50s
to mid 60s tonight. Cooler H850mb air will be backing through the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

12z Thursday and beyond.  Upper level low north of the Canadian
border will force a cold front across the Sandhills on Thursday. The
front is now shown to arrive earlier and continue south well into
Kansas before stalling out.  The latest projections now favor the
better thunderstorm chances south of the forecast area, as much of
the cwa will be under the influence of post-frontal stable
conditions.  The latest SPC Day Two outlook now indicates just a
sliver of slight chance along our southern border, with marginal
expanding from southwest to north central Nebraska.  The upper
trough will swing through the northern plains on Friday with much
cooler air behind it.  Widespread highs in the 70s appear likely,
with just 60s for Saturday.  Enough forcing may remain for some
light rainshowers Saturday morning and afternoon.  The activity
seems to focus across southwest Nebraska with the newest model runs.
The atmosphere is shown to be weakly unstable, so showers and garden
variety storms would be all that is expected. Temperatures slowly
moderate Sunday and early next week as the long range models suggest
a building mid-level ridge over the southwest and high plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions currently prevail. Latest satellite imagery shows
an region of mid- and high-level clouds approaching western NEB
from the NEB Panhandle. Local radar display shows returns moving
into the southeastern NEB Panhandle that have been weakening in
intensity over the evening. These showers and thunderstorms were
stronger in the far western Panhandle with now scant lightning
detected and modest returns seen.

Rest of tonight, possible isolated showers in far southwest NEB
over the next few hours with low confidence associated with it.
Otherwise, an increase in SCT/BKN mid- and high-level clouds over
western NEB after midnight into the early morning. LLWS conditions
a concern now through the small hours associated with a low-level
jet. Upper height of about 1500 ft with winds at the top of the
layer around 35-45 kts. LLWS conditions are expected to diminish
in the early morning hours. Thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow afternoon, primarily east of a line from Imperial to




LONG TERM...Jacobs
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