Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 262011
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ABBREVIATED FORECAST DISCUSSION DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A LEE THERMAL TROUGH.  THE LATEST VIS
SATELLITE INDICATES A STEADY LINE OF CU DEVELOPING ALONG THE THERMAL
TROUGH...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ALREADY NOTED JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  THE OVERALL CONSENSUS OF THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTS THE LINE WILL FILL IN AND SPREAD EAST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE CAPE...WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40KTS EAST OVER THE
SANDHILLS.  ADDITIONAL STORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE/ ARE FORECAST.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AIDED BY A STOUT LLJ AND A
WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THE LATEST 12Z NAM12 CARRIES THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY.  THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE CURRENT GFS
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA  AS SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  A LEE TROUGH
AND/OR STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FAVORABLE SHEAR AND CAPE WOULD PROMOTE
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE CURRENT DAY TWO SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK
FROM SPC LOOKS GOOD.

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB NEAR 100 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FRONTIER...LINCOLN...AND HAYES
COUNTIES. ATTM...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A BIT WARM WITH TEMPERATURES...SO
WOULD LIKE A SECOND LOOK OVERNIGHT TO DETERMINE IF HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FA. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH IN THE
MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FAR SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND MOVED POPS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE FA WITH
WESTERN ZONES SEEING DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF MOISTURE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COVERAGE
HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 82 TO 88 TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES
ESTABLISHED IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE 18Z AVIATION
FORECAST. THE NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING FORECAST MODELS AND
SHORT TERM DETERMINISTICS ARE STRUGGLING ON COMING TO A CONSENSUS OF
WHAT IMPACTS FROM ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS OF NOW...TWO AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FIRST OFF THE PANHANDLE OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA...AND THE SECOND OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. WE
ANTICIPATED THE CONVECTION OFF THE PANHANDLE TO REMAIN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AND WORK EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OFF THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO MAY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH
GREATER COVERAGE. WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS...BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS


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