Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261556
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1056 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

At H5 main player is closed low centered over Winnipeg
early this morning. Mainly zonal pattern over the western CONUS
with weak ridging over the eastern CONUS ahead of the upper low
over southcentral Canada.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The chance for thunderstorms returns as a cold front drops
southeast into northern Nebraska this evening then stalls out to
become the focus for the chance of storms in the near term. Pops
and weather updated.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models in fair agreement in the near term. 850mb temperatures
rise into the low 20s Celsius today over western Nebraska. This
translate into asurface temperature in the mid to upper 80s.
Models persistent in moving a mid level disturbance across
western Nebraska this evening.This combined with a weak low level
jet and some instability would allow for some thunderstorm
development in the Nebraska Panhandle and moving east on the nose
of the jet then diminishing as it moveseast into more stable
capped airmass. Have expanded pops some but limited their
eastward movement. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Synoptic scale picture transitioning to a mean trough over eastern
Canada and northeastern U.S. thanks in part to a blocking upper
ridge over Sweeden and Finland region allowing low pressure to
deepen over the northern Great Lakes through the week. This will
keep the Plains in northwest flow aloft which results in better
deep layer shear in time and several, albeit weak, PV anomalies
moving across the area, each in an increasingly unstable
atmosphere translating to better large scale forcing for ascent
periodically through the week across western and north central NE.

First front sags southward into NE Monday. Moist, upslope flow
will result north of the front and combine with weak mid level
isentropic lift and frontogenesis in elevated moderate instability
to produce showers and a few thunderstorms Monday. Since this will
occur during the day temps will struggle some under cloud cover
and precip. In fact highs Monday may still be a bit optimistic if
widespread precip develops through the day. There will be better
shear but best instability will reside south of the front over
southwest NE where slight risk of severe from SPC resides.

Tuesday looks to be a more interesting day/evening across western NE.
Previously mentioned front continues plunging southward, however low
level moisture remains in place across much of western KS nwd into
western NE and SD. This occurs as surface high pressure will be
sliding southeastward across the Midwest late Tuesday afternoon and
with pressures falling in the High Plains winds will turn southerly
and will transport good low level moisture back into the High
Plains. This moisture allows for a very unstable atmosphere to set
up across this area by Tuesday afternoon. Weak height falls are also
noted in this area as a subtle short wave trough moves atop the
ridge further west. While the wind fields are not excessively
strong, if a strongly unstable atmosphere is in place it won`t take
much to initiate convection, which the models agree on somewhere in
the vicinity of the Black Hills, however the GFS is about 6 hours
slower than the NAM. In either case there are very strong signals in
the models that a potent convective complex will be possible,
strengthened and maintained by >50 kts deep layer shear. Convective
mode should favor supercells initially then transitioning to a more
linear system and if the earlier timing is correct in the NAM, a
better realization of CAPE will be possible within steep 0-2km lapse
rates. By Tuesday eve good LLJ develops which given good effective
shear will maintain any convective complex and allow it to dive
southeast into the LLJ. Could be a decent setup for severe weather
for western and north central NE.

For Wednesday and beyond, northwest flow aloft remains in place
across the Plains as the upper ridge remains across the central
Rockies and upper level low pressure forms and deepens across the
southeastern portion of Canada and Great Lakes region. This will
favor lee troughing over the northern High Plains but also low
pressure across the TX Panhandle region Thursday through Sat. In
between low level moisture will remain in place while subtle
disturbances aloft move quickly across the area. The result will be
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which in most cases
will be diurnally driven but may linger as well. Temps Friday look
to be the coolest as NE is north a of the front and cloud cover
should be more prevalent, especially in the west. Otherwise max
temps close to where we should be for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Visual flight rules expected today with light southeast winds less
than 10 mph. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over the Nebraska
Panhandle this evening and move into western Nebraska tonight. The
storms will be isolated in nature and have low confidence that any
will affect KLBF or KVTN so have left out of the taf for now.


&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Keck
SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Stoppkotte
AVIATION...Power


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