Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 041152
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
552 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SYNOPSIS...H5 ANALYSIS EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE NRN
GREAT LAKES...SSW TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WEST OF THE TROUGH...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEVADA...NWD INTO THE YUKON
OF CANADA. EAST OF THE TROUGH...RIDGING WAS PRESENT FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WEST OF THE
PACIFIC COAST RIDGE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF THE
COAST OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON STATE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN MINNESOTA WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING S FROM THIS FEATURE INTO NERN NEBRASKA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDED WSW OF THE LOW INTO NRN SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...SNOW COVER AND
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS HAVE LED TO COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS OF 3 AM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 8 AT
OGALLALA TO 16 AT ONEILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

IN THE NEAR TERM...THE THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IS
THE MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN. FOR TODAY...LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY OVER NWRN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK EAST INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FAR
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. FURTHER WEST...ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WILL
REMAIN NEUTRAL WITH 21Z H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM -4C IN THE
SOUTHWEST...TO -7 IN THE NORTHEAST. WITH FULL SUN AND WESTERLY
WINDS IN PLACE...HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY THIS
EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...WILL EMERGE ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WYOMING...COLORADO AND EASTERN MONTANA. BY LATE EVENING...MID
LEVEL LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS EAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY LATE
EVENING IN THE PANHANDLE...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST INTO THE
SANDHILLS OVERNIGHT. LIFT WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS AS INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING. FCST PWATS REACH 0.30 TO 0.40 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SO
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR PCPN. HOWEVER...CROSS SECTIONS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...INDICATE ONLY MEAGER LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE TONIGHT...AND ITS FOCUSED OVER THE SANDHILLS
AFTER 3Z THIS EVENING. THE ONSET OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT WAS SLOWED
DOWN TO BETTER REFLECT THE 00Z NAM AND GFS SOLNS FROM EARLIER
THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO NOW AGREES WITH THE LATEST HI RES WARW
SOLN WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY BEFORE 03Z
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE FAST NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...QPF/S WILL
BE LIGHT TONIGHT AT WELL UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH...WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO SNOWFALL OF A HALF TO AN INCH OVERNIGHT GENERALLY IN
THE SANDHILLS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TONIGHT...SO THE SNOW
WILL POSE A MINIMAL TRAVEL THREAT TO THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE
FAIRLY MILD TONIGHT WITH READINGS IN THE TEENS THANKS TO EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

DEEP SNOW PACK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON
TEMPS...HOWEVER HOW MUCH IS THE MAIN FOCUS. ALSO GENERALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A COUPLE CLIPPERS TO BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW.

FRIDAY WILL SEE A DEPARTING DISTURBANCE AND WILL SEE ANY LIGHT
SNOW END IN THE MORNING. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME SUN IN THE WEST...HOWEVER EXPECT THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
SNOW PACK IS LOWEST TO SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS.

WESTERN RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. A SURGE IN 850 MB TEMPS WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A
MILD NIGHT AND WARM SATURDAY...HOWEVER WILL SIDE WITH THE COLDEST
GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPS COOL...ONLY WARMING
SAT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S OT LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL PUSH THROUGH. MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND
DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE MAIN VORT MAX. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
POPS TO SLGHT CHANCE. ONE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE
INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. THIS COULD RESULT IN ANY OF THE LIGHT SNOW FROM
SAT NIGHT BLOWING ACROSS A CRUSTED DEEP SNOW PACK IF THE SNOW
AMOUNTS TO MUCH. FOR NOW THE THOUGHT IS ONLY FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATION...THUS NOT MUCH BLOWING SNOW TO OCCUR.

NEXT WEEK THE WEST COAST RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO SW CANADA...AS A
TROUGH DIGS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE WARM AIR TO THE WEST AND THE COLD AIR TO
THE EAST. SNOW PACK WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE GRADIENT AND KEEP AT
LEAST THE SOUTHWEST ON THE COOL SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A COUPLE
OF WAVES NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND
LIKELY WILL BE FLURRIES AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON WITH INVADING UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AON 20000 FT AGL.
CIGS WILL FALL FURTHER TO 10000 FT AGL BY EARLY EVENING. CIGS
WILL FALL TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL BY LATE EVENING. THERE IS A THREAT
FOR LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS. GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW...WILL HANDLE THE MENTION WIT A
PROB30 GROUP.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BUTTLER
SHORT TERM...BUTTLER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...BUTTLER


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