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000
FXUS63 KLBF 140855
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
355 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AT 08Z...ANALYSIS OF THE MSL DATA SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO NORTH OF EADS AND OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO NEAR
FT. COLLINS. A FRONT WAS DRAPED BETWEEN THE LOWS IN COLORADO AND
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR TOPEKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS WERE 65-70 SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND 55-65 NORTH OF THE
FRONT. WIND AND DEWPOINT FIELDS SHOWED DECENT SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IN UPPER
LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MATURING CYCLONE OVER
CENTRAL IDAHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SURFACE
BASED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INCREASES TO MORE THAN 4000J/KG IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH 3000J/KG OR HIGHER AS FAR
WEST AS AINSWORTH...BROKEN BOW AND NORTH PLATTE. WE HAVE EXTENDED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THOSE AREAS. AT 35-40KT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER TO ALLOW HAIL TO DEVELOP AND VORTICITY
ALONG THE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS. FOR NOW...WE WILL
NOT PUT SEVERE WORDING IN THE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
YET.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

INITIALLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED WITH TROUGHS OFF EACH
RESPECTIVE COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS 48...EFFECTIVELY BOOKENDING A
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US.  A TRIO OF CLOSED LOWS NOTED BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES WILL BE LOCATED MAINLY NORTH OF THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH THE FIRST OFF THE COAST OF BC...THE NEXT
CENTERED OVER SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE THIRD ANCHORED ATOP NORTHERN
QUEBEC.  WITH SOLID LONG RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT...THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OF SASKATCHEWAN IS SHOWN TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND.  THIS REINFORCEMENT OF THE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE CENTRAL STATES RIDGE TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  THE WESTWARD
RETROGRADE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE BC CLOSED LOW
RELUCTANTLY ADVANCES ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FORCES THE RIDGE
BACK EAST OVER THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  THUS WITH THE
WAFFLING OF THE UPPER RIDGE...PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER SEEM
PLAUSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND TO START THE WORK WEEK.
THEREAFTER...PRECIP CHANCES CONTINE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE REGION IS INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT...THE FINER DETAILS OF PRECIPITATION
TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL MUDDLED...THUS YIELDING LOW
CONFIDENCE.  STARTING OFF SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...BUT THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS PLACES THE HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF I80...WILL MAINTAIN THE
SOLID CHANCES THERE.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SUNDAY...A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE
FRONT TO SPARK OFF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH VERY STEEP
LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.  INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE WEST AND BUILDS EAST ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS...POSSIBLY SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 83 BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  FOR MID-WEEK...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ATOP THE
PLAINS WITH THE MEAN TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS...MOISTURE RETURN COULD TARGET WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.  A QUICK LOOK AT TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD REVEALS NO GREAT DEVIATIONS FROM
CLIMO...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80-90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
50-60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

MID AND HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY...A FRONT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A WIND SHIFT TO NORTH EXPECTED. TIMING OF THE
SHIFT WILL BE AROUND 18Z AT THE KVTN TERMINAL AND AROUND 21Z AT THE
KLBF TERMINAL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...SPRINGER