Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 261931
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE CONUS HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND A
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS LEAVES NEBRASKA UNDER
FAST NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH 12Z RAOBS THIS MORNING
INDICATING A 60 TO 70 KT 300MB JET FROM GGW TO LBF. AT THE
SURFACE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE
COMBINED TO DEVELOP WIDESPREAD CU ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WAS INHIBITING THE VERTICAL
EXTENT OF MOST CU...ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE CWA
WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A SUBTLE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH LOOKS TO BE PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE TO FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH
AND THE BOUNDARY DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH QUIET AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...AND H85 WAA WILL
LEAD TO A MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARMER DAY TOMORROW. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HANGS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPING.
STRENGTHENING UPPER HIGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST CONUS WILL LEAVE
FORECAST AREA IN FAST NORTHWEST FLOW. BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF
COAST WILL INHIBIT MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE WEST INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AND SPREAD
EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL HELP
PROVIDE A CAP FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL HELP TO INHIBIT
STORMS WITH ALL BUT THE MOST VIGOROUS WAVES MOVING THROUGH
NORTHWEST FLOW. WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 27C. STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH STRONG
WAA AHEAD OF COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO WEST
AND SENDS A COOL FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN THURSDAY.
TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN MODELS AND STRENGTH OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGER COOL FRONTS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL
FOR THE SEASON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

LOW CIGS FROM MORNING STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH
SKC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
CONTINUE TO RECEDE AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN DROPPED FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER THROUGH DEUEL AND KEITH
COUNTY. RIVER LEVELS HAVE FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THE ROSCOE
GAUGE SITE AND ONLY A FEW IMPACTS ARE STILL BEING REALIZED ALONG THE
RIVER. THE FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN
LINCOLN COUNTY TO HIGHLIGHT IMPACTS ALONG THE RIVER CHANNEL IN THE
CITY OF NORTH PLATTE...ALTHOUGH THE RIVER IS NOW ALMOST A FOOT BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. FURTHER DOWNSTREAM IN THE PLATTE RIVER A FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES AS THE BRADY GAUGE REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...HOWEVER IT
SHOULD FALL BELOW THAT MARK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECENT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL UPSTREAM IN COLORADO IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE SOUTH PLATTE AND PLATTE RIVERS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...MARTIN
HYDROLOGY...MARTIN






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