Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 171708
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1208 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures today with a gusty northwest wind.

- Elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon due to the
  combination of low humidity and gusty northwest winds up to
  35 mph possible. Elevated fire weather conditions Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Above normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday with a cooldown
  Wednesday through Saturday. Low chances for rain or snow
  showers Thursday night through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today, a reinforcing cold front was beginning to move into the
northeastern forecast area early this morning. The front will
move through the forecast area this morning with weak cold air
advection. Bufkit soundings indicate deep mixing up to H75 and
with mostly sunny skies. This supports northwest winds gusting
occasional up to 35 mph. Given the weak cold air advection, used
the NBM for highs only in the upper 30s northeast, low 40s
central to near 50 far southwest. Northwest winds will solidly
range from 15 to 30 mph with occasional gusts up to 35 mph
possible. Much drier air will move into the area with dewpoints
falling to 5 to 15 degrees above in the afternoon. The
combination of gusty winds and low humidity will bring elevated
to near-critical fire weather conditions. Additional details
found in the Fire Weather Section.

Tonight, surface high pressure will become centered over
central Nebraska. With a very dry airmass and mostly clear skies,
lows of 15 to 20 are forecast.

On Monday, an amplified upper ridge will extend over the western
U.S. including British Columbia and Alberta Canada. A weak
closed low is expected to remain across western Arizona while a
longwave trough advances across the Great Lakes and Midwest.
Upper height rises will bring a notable warmup to western
Nebraska. Highs compares to today will be 10 to 20 degrees
warmer. Highs will reach the upper 60s to around 60 across west
of Highway 183 to around 50 northeast. Lighter west winds of 10
to 15 mph in the afternoon. Afternoon humidity will remain low
to bring another day of elevated fire weather conditions.

Monday night, a weak cold front will move through. Lows however
will no be as cold, ranging from 30 to 35 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper ridge will flatten out across
the Western U.S. as the upper low/trough finally gets kicked
eastward across the Four Corners Region toward eastern New
Mexico and the Texas panhandle. Tuesday will be slightly warmer
in the mid 60s. A longwave trough over Hudson Bay Canada into
the Great Lakes and New England will bring a backdoor cold front
into the area on Wednesday. This will bring contrasting highs
from only the mid 40s northeast to the upper 50s to low 60s
southwest.

On Thursday, surface low pressure will cross the region. This
will bring a warmup into the mid 50s to low 60s. Friday and
Saturday, confidence in temperatures and POPs are below average.
The location of surface low pressure and the location of an
arctic front varies. The latest NBM forecasts a cooldown to the
mid 40s to lower 50s both days and low chance POPs Thursday
night through Saturday. This will bring a chance for rain or
snow showers.

Deterministic models drop an upper trough into the Pacific
northwest Friday into Saturday, though the ECMWF is faster,
moving a lead upper trough into the Great Basin. This supports
warmer temperatures than the NBM for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. North-northwesterly winds have strengthened
this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30kts. These gusty winds will
continue through the day before quickly subsiding around sunset,
becoming light and variable at 5kts or less overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Today, elevated fire weather conditions during the afternoon. A
reinforcing cold front will bring cooler temperatures in the
upper 30s northeast to near 50 far southwest. A much drier
airmass will lead to lowest humidity falling to 20 to 30 percent
combined with northwest winds of 15 to 30 mph with occasional
gusts to 35 mph. Any fire starts this afternoon could spread
quickly.

Elevated fire weather conditions should persist Monday and
Tuesday as highs reach into mid 50s to mid 60s and minimum RH
values as low as 20 to 28 percent each day. Winds will be
lighter each day, westerly on Monday and northwesterly on
Tuesday with gusts expected to remain below 20 mph.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Viken
FIRE WEATHER...Roberg


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