Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 041129 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
529 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEB IS DECREASING SLOWLY AND
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH DESPITE THE WEAKENING
LIFT. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FLURRIES THIS MORNING UNTIL SKIES
CLEAR BY MID MORNING. NORTH...AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN. THE NAM WIND AND MOISTURE
FIELDS 700MB AND BELOW SUGGEST SOME LATERAL OR TRANSVERSE
CONVERGENCE WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BLENDED MODEL QPF EVEN INDICATES SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT QPF BUT
GIVEN THE DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB FLURRIES WOULD SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY MODE.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER RAP MODEL TODAY
SUGGESTING 20S FOR HIGHS IN MOST AREAS. THE RAP WAS ACTUALLY A
BIT TOO COLD WITH THE ARCTIC BLAST MONDAY SO THE WARMER SOLN
MIGHT BE BEST TODAY.

1030 MB ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MISSOURI BASIN TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER
WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO IN A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MORE SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES AND DRY FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER THE SW CONUS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE
RETURN OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING/EXPANDING EASTWARD. THURSDAY WILL
SEE THE FIRST DAY OF WARM AIR WITH ONLY WARMER DAYS TO FOLLOW.
850 MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND ZERO BY 00Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO
WARM INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MOVED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST. WILL SEE A FEW NW FLOW CLIPPERS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY TEMPS HOLD STEADY BEHIND THE CLIPPERS AS AIR MASS
BEHIND EACH WAVE IS PACIFIC. MODEL MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS...TO START THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGHS INTO THE 60S. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY IN
THE 20S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO HELP RADIATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCT-BKN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
SCATTERED FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTL NEB THIS AFTN ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN MOVES THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSOURI BASIN AND INTO WRN IOWA BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC






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