Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 261735 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1235 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

At 08z...Skies were partly to mostly cloudy, mainly from high
cloudiness. A few showers thunderstorms continued near and east of
Colorado Springs in east central Colorado with a few showers
lingering in northwest Kansas. Temperatures in western Nebraska
mainly ranged from the mid to upper 50s, except near 45 in Sheridan
County.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Today...An upper level low centered across central Manitoba and
Saskatchewan will have an upper trough extending southwestward from
eastern Montana into northern Nevada.  A 300 mb jet max will extend
from southern North Dakota, southwest through central Wyoming into
western Utah. The upper flow today will be southwesterly as surface
winds from the north this morning veer to the southeast this
afternoon from the panhandle into southwest Nebraska, bringing
increased instability with mucapes from 300-800 j/kg. 850 mb
temperatures of 12-18C mixed to the surface should result in highs
from 72-75 southeast and 67-71 northwest. Skies should remain at
least partly sunny today, with an increase in high clouds across the
west this afternoon. A disturbance will track from northwest
Colorado and south central Wyoming and trigger scattered showers and
thunderstorms into the western Panhandle and northeast Colorado mid
to late afternoon. There is a slight chance a few showers or storms
could reach far western counties very late this afternoon.

Tonight...The above mentioned disturbance aided by the right
entrance region of the northern stream jet will produce likely
chances for areas south of I80 from storm exiting northeast
Colorado. Another area with likely chances will be west of Valentine
through Ellsworth. Areas east of Ainsworth through Broken Bow should
remain dry this evening. After midnight, The HRRR and NAMNest models
suggest a cluster of storms forecast between Douglas, Casper and
Rawlins Wyoming at 00z, will move east as a line of storms across
areas such as Thedford, North Platte, and Hayes Center at 09z
tonight. The 00z ECMWF also suggests a similar scenario late
tonight. As a result, likely pops continue after midnight, and
extend eastward overnight. Regarding the potential for strong or
severe storms, areas south of Ellsworth through Broken Bow could see
strong storms, while areas further south, mainly south of I89 could
see a few severe storms. With instability present overnight,
especially near and south of highway 2, strong storms remain
possible even late tonight. Lows tonight range from the upper 40s to
lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Upper level low pressure continues to slowly wobble across
southern Canada. This will continue to influence our weather
through at least Tuesday, with northwest flow aloft and northwest
winds at the surface. Mid to late week as the low moves into
eastern Canada the flow aloft will become more zonal as southeast
winds begin to return low level gulf moisture back into the
region.

The main precipitation chances will be early in the forecast
period (Saturday morning), as an upper level disturbance tracks
through the central plains on the southern periphery of the large
Canadian upper low. Mid to late week (Wednesday and Thursday),
isolated to scattered rain chances will return as low level
moisture returns northward into the region. In between it should
be mainly dry.

As mentioned at least scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder will linger through early Saturday afternoon. Then drier
air both at the surface and aloft will aid in ending precipitation
and clearing skies later Saturday afternoon. Sunshine should then
rule Sunday into Monday. The warmest of the 3 days will be Sunday
when highs will top out in the 70s. Cloud cover Saturday will hold
highs in the mid to upper 60s, and then a weak cold front will
keep Monday`s highs similar to Saturday. Expect a slow warming
trend Tuesday and beyond, with highs at least in the mid 70s as
ridging aloft begins to slowly build in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

Visual Flight Rules over western Nebraska thsi afternoon with
North winds at 10 to 15 mph and mostly sunny skies. Thunderstorms
will develop over the Nebraska Panhandle and the eastern plains of
Wyoming this afternoon and move east over night. Have carried
thunderstorms over southwest Nebraska after 00z and over northern
Nebraska after 03z. Precipitation will continue over night and end
in the KONL vicinity Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Power



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