Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202339
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
539 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A strong low pressure system will develop across the central Plains
bringing snow and wind to north central Nebraska. Confidence is
increasing in both the timing and intensity of the system. Not
planning on making any changes to the headlines at this time and
will continue with the Winter Storm Warnings at this time.

For tonight: Snow will being to move into the area tonight (Saturday
night) beginning across the northwest and eastern Panhandle around
9pm CST. Snow will begin wet across this region with blowing snow
not really an issue during the onset of the storm. Snow will slowly
progress south and east overnight, with most locations east of US-83
not seeing any precipitation until Sunday.

Sunday: The low pressure system will become well organized by Sunday
morning as it moves off the Rockies and into the central Plains. A
surge of boundary layer warm air will result in a slight chance of
some freezing drizzle across areas mainly along and south of I-80.
Confidence in freezing drizzle is very low. If any can develop, it
is expected to be light and will diminish by mid to late morning. In
the meantime, snow will progress across the eastern Panhandle and
northern Sandhills by Sunday morning. For locations along the I-80
corridor, snow will move into the area by noon CST Sunday. Snow is
expected to be heavy at times with snowfall rates up to an inch a
hour which will result in reduced visibilities across the region. In
addition to heavy snowfall rates, northerly winds will begin to
increase by Sunday afternoon causing blowing snow and travel issues
on east-west roadways.

Sunday night: Snow will continue across the entire forecast area on
Sunday night. By Sunday night, snow should become more dry and
therefore much lighter and fluffier. The main concern for Sunday
night will be increasing winds. Gusts could reach up to 35 to 40 mph
with the strongest wind gusts between 6pm CST Sunday and 6am CST
Monday. These winds will reduce visibilities down to 1/2 mile or
less. Travelers should expect blizzard-like conditions on Sunday
night. In addition, expect drifting snow with drifts up to 2 feet in
some locations. Snow combined with increasing winds will make for
dangerous travel conditions. Extra caution should be exercised if
travel is necessary on Sunday night. Decided against a Blizzard
Warning at this time due to the low confidence in winds and
visibilities reaching criteria. Will have to keep an eye on this
over the next forecast cycle to see if an upgrade will be needed.
Winds remain out of the north through Sunday night before slowly
shifting to the northwest by 6am CST Monday morning.

Monday: The low pressure system will slowly push east throughout the
morning. Snow will end beginning in the west first around 6am CST to
8am CST. By Noon CST, all snow will be out of the region, with the
exception of locations along and east of the US-183 corridor where
snow could continue into the early afternoon hours. Even though snow
will be moving out, blowing snow will still be a concern through
Monday afternoon. Northwest winds will continue to gust up to 30 to
35 mph into early afternoon before diminishing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast challenge will be temperatures next week as the significant
snowfall accumulations could impede a warmup. Models are in good
agreement with an upper ridge to build east for above normal
temperatures, however how warm will be the question. As the upper
ridge builds east temperatures peak on Thursday with some locations
seeing reading approach 60. Friday the next storm system will move
out on the Plains with the trailing cold front moving east Friday
night into Saturday for the next chance of snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

A powerful winter storm will begin to take shape across the
Central Plains late tonight into Sunday. For the KLBF terminal:
Expect abundant high clouds will continue into the overnight with
MVFR ceilings developing by mid morning Sunday. the threat for
snow will increase by late Sunday morning with IFR then LIFR
ceilings setting in during the afternoon hours on Sunday. Snow
will begin to develop after midday with visibilities falling off
to a half a mile by mid afternoon. For the KVTN terminal: Expect
MVFR ceilings to continue this evening, reaching IFR overnight.
LIFR ceilings are expected after 12z Sunday with light snow
developing. Visibilities will gradually fall to a half a mile by
midday Sunday as snow fall intensities increase. Ceilings will
fall off to under 300 FT AGL Sunday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for NEZ004-
005-022>024-035-036-056>058-069-094.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
NEZ006>010-025>029-037-038-059-070-071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...Keck
AVIATION...Buttler



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