Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 231632
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

H5 ANALYSIS FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN
ACROSS CANADA AND THE CONUS. CLOSED LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
IN BETWEEN...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST AND WERE IMPACTING FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF 3 AM CDT. BEHIND THIS AREA OF EXITING
PRECIPITATION...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. VISBYS WERE GENERALLY UNDER ONE MILE WITH QUARTER MILE
VISBYS REPORTED AT NORTH PLATTE AND ORD. VISBYS HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING AROUND 1/2SM AT ONEILL AND BROKEN BOW. BASED ON ROAD
CAMS AND SFC VISBYS...DECIDED TO HOIST A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING...FOR LOCATIONS
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MAYWOOD...TO NORTH PLATTE...TO
ONEILL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT...RANGED FROM 36 AT OGALLALA
TO 44 AT NORTH PLATTE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS FINALLY LIFTING...WITH VIS SAT...SFC OBS AND WEB CAMERAS
SHOWING IMPROVING VISIBILITIES/CONDITIONS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS EXPIRED FOR ALL AND SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INCREASE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
TEMPERATURES. FOR THIS MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM
SOLNS...FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING.
DENSE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 10 AM CDT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA...WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA TODAY. SPREAD BETWEEN THE MET AND MAV HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY MINIMAL...WITH THE MAV RUNNING 3 TO 10
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. FOR THE
FCST...TRENDED HIGHS TOWARD THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. THIS IS DUE
TO FOG AND EXPECTED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
FOR TONIGHT...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EAST...EFFECTIVELY ENDING ANY
THREAT IN THE CWA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
TONIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR
EXISTS. LIKE HIGHS TODAY...THE MAV GUIDANCE IS WARMER ON THE LOWS
TONIGHT COMPARED TO THE MET GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...THE GUIDANCE LOWS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM COMPARED ACTUALITY.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE DRY CONDS IN PLACE...OPTED FOR
THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A VERY WARM DAY...AS A SURFACE TROUGH
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING. A
FAVORABLE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WIND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE WARMING...AS WARM AIR ALOFT /H850MB TEMPS OF 20 TO
23C/ IS EASILY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS APPEAR THEY WILL AT
LEAST TOP OUT IN THE MID 70S...WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING JUST A BIT OF
COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HIGHS OF 70 TO 75
DEGREES STILL ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. A LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT
USHERING IN COOLER AIR...AND LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROGRESS EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
MOISTURE/HUMIDITY IN BOTH THE LOWER AND MID/UPPER LEVELS DOESN/T
LOOK THAT GREAT...SO DESPITE DECENT LIFT AS THE FGEN BAND CROSSES
THE AREA...THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION...AND
WILL ONLY INCREASE POPS A BIT INTO THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY AT
THIS TIME.

MODELS DIFFER BEYOND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED AND ALLOWS COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF BUILDS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A WARMING TREND. THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO AT THIS POINT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FORECAST SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GOOD MIXING TODAY
ALONG WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP
FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT AS MOISTURE WILL NOT GET TRAPPED IN
THE BL. ALL MOS GUIDANCE AND MODELS SUPPORT ONLY SOME PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK






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