Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 211217 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
617 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Near term models in good agreement and will trend towards NAM
solution which has a good handle on current weather trends. As upper
wave lifts northeast across shield wrap around
will keep cloud cover through north central Nebraska through the day
while the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest Nebraska clear out. The
Platte river valley will see some areas of fog this morning along
with north central Nebraska. Have carried this through late morning.
Visibility at KLBF down to a quarter of a mile at 3 am. Cloud shield
looks to be erroding fairly fast from the west and may have to
readdress this. Highs today in the upper 30s along the Pine Ridge in
northern Sheridan county with 40s over the remainder of the forecast
area with light west winds becoming northwest this evening. Winds
decouple tonight and with mostly clear skies temperatures with range
from around 20 northwest to the upper 20s over the southwest and
north central zones.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Main concern for this forecast period is the upcoming
potential winter storm to affect the Northern Plains. The system
should arrive in our forecast area by early Tuesday morning and
continue to affect our forecast area until Wednesday afternoon.

Sunday and Monday will be fairly benign days with temperatures well
above normal with highs reaching the 40s and 50s.

Tuesday/Wednesday...At this time a few models seem to be in good
agreement on the timing of the system. However, there are
differences in the models with location of greatest impact. Models
at this time seem to suggest the greatest potential for accumulating
snowfall to be across north central Nebraska...especially along the
South Dakota and Nebraska border. However some models are suggesting
snowfall will extend farther south into southwest Nebraska, where
others keep the track farther north suggesting little snowfall
accumulations farther south. The GFS is trending more northerly with
the track of the system while the ECMWF has been trending with a
more southerly track. As the Upper level low moves across the Plains
winds will increase and temperatures will become colder with lows
Tuesday in the teens to low 20s and highs by Wednesday in the 20s to
low 30s...confidence is high that precipitation will be all snow by
Tuesday night as am anticipating temperatures will be cold enough.
Winds will also increase as the low passes through the region...have
decided to add the mention of blowing snow as sustained winds of 20
to 25 mph are possible.

Have decided to keep higher snowfall amounts across northern
Nebraska along the border where confidence is higher that snowfall
will occur and at the moment have kept snowfall amounts low across
southwest Nebraska as confidence in snowfall accumulation is low, at
this time...will continue to monitor and may need to increase or
decrease snowfall amounts depending on the track of the system.

Wednesday evening through Friday looks to be quiet but cooler with
temperatures remaining in the 20s and 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Some patchy fog in the KLBF vicinity with skies clearing. At KVTN
overcast skies in VFR categories. Skies will clear through the
early afternoon. Light west to northwest winds today over western
Nebraska under 10kts.


Issued at 318 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The North Platte river above Lake McConaughy will remain elevated
due to ice jamming.




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