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000
FXUS63 KLBF 301817
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1217 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

CONCERN ABOUT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD /ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/ AHEAD OF A LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS MOISTURE FIELD RESULTING IN A
SOLID CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD. 12Z SOUNDING SUGGESTED FORECAST MAX OF
52 DEGREES AND WITH THE CIRRUS WOULD NOT EXPECT TO MIX AND REACH
THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING 850 TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO REACH LOWER 50S FOR
MOST AREAS. THUS WILL LET RIDE THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS
TODAY AND SATELLITE INDICATES OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY AND
INCREASED ACROSS ALL AREAS TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL
SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY BUT JUST 20S OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE LIFTING
INTO SCNTL NEB BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE...LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS SNOW COULD DEVELOP
BY MORNING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE PTYPE
RAIN VS SNOW AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE QUITE MARGINAL FOR SNOW
GROWTH WITH H700MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS AND H800MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 0C.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS IT STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS. THE CHANCE WILL BEGIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. LIFT IS MARGINAL AT BEST...AND AS
MENTIONED FRONTOGENESIS IS WEAK...SO ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE WILL DIVE FROM MONTANA TO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALSO STRENGTHENS SOME. AS A RESULT...SNOW COULD
INCREASE FOR A TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DOWNGLIDE TAKES OVER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS JUST A BIT FOR THESE
AREAS...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER
IF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ABOVE SCENARIO. IF ALL COMES
TOGETHER...THEN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AM HESITANT AT THIS POINT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH POPS OR
INCREASE SNOW TOTALS MUCH...AS THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS
PROVEN TO BE QUITE FICKLE IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. WILL WATCH THE
MODEL RUNS CLOSELY TODAY AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK.

HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY...AS A BATCH OF FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL
MONDAY...WITH MILDER PACIFIC AIR RUSHING IN TO TAKE THE PLACE OF
SUNDAY/S ARCTIC AIR. THIS MILDER AIR APPEARS TO LAST INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR SETTLES SOUTH WEDNESDAY. THIS
APPEARS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BEGINS TO BUILD EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY WEEKS END. THIS WOULD BRING WITH IT SOME
POTENTIALLY VERY MILD AIR ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTING IN DENSE CIRRUS OVERHEAD TODAY. A LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE DRY LOWER LEVELS
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN JUST MID AND HIGH VFR CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT
SOME WEAK LIFT WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY EXPECT PRECIP TO
REACH THE GROUND. WARM TEMPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND SFC TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL RESULT IN RAIN...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING AND CHANGE TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TOWARDS MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FOR NW NEB...INCLUDING
KVTN...AND EXPECT NO PRECIP THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MASEK
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK