Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 241224
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
724 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The forecast challenges in the short term were rainfall amounts,
precipitation chances, and temperatures. Sensible weather concerns
revolved around the possibility of moderate-heavy rainfall over
the next 12 hours across portions of western and north central
NEB.

Latest radar imagery depicts showers roughly organized from
northeast CO to southwest NEB to north central NEB with showers
developing/filling in recently across southwest NEB. Radar returns
have diminished some over the last 1-3 hours, and are generally less
than 40 dBZ. Latest satellite imagery depicts a comma-shape
signature over the Plains associated with the cyclone wherein the
SPC mesoanalysis shows the deepening surface low over far southeast
CO at about 988 mb. Latest water vapor imagery shows the main
positive PV anomaly pushing now into the southern portion of the
Central High Plains.

Large scale pattern will feature a closed low that will be present
over far southeast CO/far western OK Panhandle at the start of the
period. Over the next 12 hours the 500 hPa closed low will weaken
and fill in some and be over eastern OK by early evening then track
into the western Ozarks by early Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the
surface low will weaken and track into western OK by this afternoon.
A moist air mass is in place for this time of year, 00Z sounding
yesterday recorded a precipitable water of 0.65 inches (the sounding
climatological max for this date/time was 0.59 inches). While the
moisture profile is modest, precipitable water values will start
about 150% to 200% percent of normal and decrease over the course of
the day  approaching normal by late evening across north central
NEB. Deterministic guidance is in general agreement with placement
of QPF. A zone of deformation will be the focus for moderate rain,
heavy at times, roughly oriented across southwest NEB to north
central NEB. The heaviest rainfall amounts are anticipated to be
over southwest NEB today wherein amounts will range from 1.0-1.5
inches with locally higher amounts possible. Instability is expected
to be meager, though isolated thunder will be possible  confined to
southwest NEB towards central NEB. A non-diurnal temperature trend
is expected for a portion of the area today, generally from
southwest NEB to central NEB, that is attributable to anticipated
precipitation. Otherwise, colder air spreads southward across
western and north central NEB today. Cloud cover will start to
decrease across northwest NEB mid-late afternoon then this trend
will continue eastward tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Upper level ridging builds into the central Plains on Saturday and
Saturday night bringing a return to dry and warmer conditions. Highs
Saturday return into the upper 50s and low 60s for much of the
forecast area. A chance for rain showers return on Sunday as a
developing low pressure system moves off the Rockies and tracks
across Kansas. The period for rain will be short lived as the system
quickly moves eastward. Rain will be out of the area by early Monday
morning. As a result of the rain and overcast skies on Sunday, highs
will only rise into the 50s. Dry weather returns on Monday as
another upper level ridge and resulting surface high pressure builds
across the central Plains.

Rain chances return on Monday night, lasting through Wednesday
morning as another low pressure system tracks south of Nebraska. For
the most part, precipitation with this system will remain all rain.
However, a few isolated locations across the eastern Panhandle could
see a rain/snow mix on both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. Any snow
that happens to mix in with the rain will be brief as temperatures
quickly rise above freezing after sunrise. Therefore, no new
snowfall accumulations are expected at this time. Dry weather then
returns for the end of the week. High temperatures next week will
fluctuate from the mid 50s to the low 60s each day. Overnight lows
will hold steady in the mid to upper 30s through next Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The main aviation concerns are flight categories and moderate to
heavy rainfall potential today. Latest radar mosaic shows a band
of light to moderate rain showers stretching from northeast CO to
southwest NEB to north central NEB. Peak rainfall rates are
expected to approach a quarter inch per hour within this band this
morning. A few rumbles of thunder also cannot be ruled out this
morning mainly along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor.
MVFR-IFR ceilings are present across much of the area presently,
except across portions of northwest NEB where low-end VFR
ceilings (less than 7 kft) are present. In general, a lull in
precipitation is expected mid-late morning with a second round of
showers expected to form in a band from southwest Nebraska into
north central Nebraska this afternoon into the evening. Skies will
clear out from northwest NEB beginning in the mid-late afternoon
to central/north central NEB early tomorrow morning. Windy
conditions through early afternoon with winds tapering off in the
mid-late afternoon, strongest winds will be over southwest NEB
with gusts up to 40 mph.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...Kulik
AVIATION...ET


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