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000
FXUS63 KLBF 302020
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
320 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR TONIGHT...AS THE AFTERNOON CUMULUS
CAUSED BY HEATING DISSIPATE...AND MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGINS
TO DECREASE. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY
AIR IN PLACE...MANY AREAS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS.

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH
WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS GARFIELD...HOLT AND
WHEELER COUNTIES...AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY COULD YIELD A STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY DESPITE THE WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. H850 MB TEMPS ACTUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND WITH MORE SUNSHINE THAN TODAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE WESTERN STATES UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND
BECOME MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WHILE THE UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THRU
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THIS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE HOWEVER THAT THE MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE
FIGHTING LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA BY EVENING AND HENCE
THE PERIOD OF FORCING IS NOT LONG LASTING. IN ADDITION...FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ALTHOUGH MODEST CAPE EXISTS IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FORCING THE CAPE IS DISTRIBUTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ABOVE THE LCL
AND THEREFORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THU.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INCREASES LIMITING
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FURTHER...SO
A MAINLY DRY FCST IS IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND
FOR TEMPERATURES...BACK TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

A SIGNIFICANT PV ANOMALY IN THE NRN STREAM MOVES ACROSS NRN CANADA
AND BEGINS TO ALTER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE ERN STATES
WHICH ALLOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TO BUILD FURTHER
EAST. AT THE SAME TIME...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL
SLIDE INTO THE PAC NW AND BEGIN TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN. THE
RESULTING INCREASED ZONAL UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
ALLOWS A LEE SIDE LOW TO DEVELOP AT THE SFC ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. SFC WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL THEN SHIFT
TO SERLY IN RESPONSE AND BEGIN TO BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
DECREASING HEIGHTS BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PAC NW
WILL ALLOW THE SFC LOW TO MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WITH
THE ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LACKING INITIALLY...HIGHER CAPE
VALUES AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED. AFTER A WARMUP THRU
MONDAY...TEMPS WILL AGAIN RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A KONL TO KBUB
LINE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER RELEASES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A RISE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC.
AT THIS TIME THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN ITS BANKS. AN
RVS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ELEVATED NORTH PLATTE RIVER
LEVELS AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...TAYLOR