Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231756

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1156 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Models having some problems with slowing things down and now surface
low further south along the Kansas Oklahoma border. Initially this
afternoon winds turning to the southeast with an upslope component.
Much of mid level moisture shearing into the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Partial clearing this afternoon with highs in the 20s north and 30s
south. With upslope flow and drying in mid levels some patchy
freezing drizzle over southwest this evening will begin to make
travel difficult. Will be updating watch to advisory. With the
system further south more cold air and thus more snow accumulations.
Moisture tap to the Gulf has shifted to the east through Oklahoma
and Missouri. Pacific moisture will limit snowfall amounts and thus
one of the decisions to lower to advisory. Best punch tonight
between 3 and 6z when pops are ramped up over the west, with 100
130kt jet overhead. With upslope conditions strong signal for best
forcing from Imperial through O`Neill after midnight. Lows tonight
in the single digits north and the teens south.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Winter weather will continue through Saturday. Have opted to remove
any mention of freezing rain/freezing drizzle and went with an all
snow forecast for Saturday. Snow totals are overall lower than the
previous forecast, however, have kept a band of higher amounts
between 4 to 7 inches along a line from Imperial to Broken Bow to
O`Neill. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going through
Saturday afternoon as confidence becomes higher in the track and
strength of this system. Some concerns with this system is that
models are hinting at the potential for a line of heavier snowfall
on Saturday morning. In this deformation band, snowfall rates over
an inch per hour could be expected and visibilities will likely be
reduced significantly. This will result in hazardous driving
conditions on Saturday morning. In addition, northwest winds will
gust up to 25 to 30 mph on Saturday afternoon, causing blowing snow
across area roadways. Caution should be used if travel is necessary
on Saturday.

Overall, this system will be fairly fast moving and is expected to
be out of the forecast area by 6pm Saturday. A quiet and dry pattern
will then return to the region from Saturday night through Tuesday.
The next chance of wintry weather arrives next Wednesday. Snow
accumulations are still a bit uncertain, but at this time, a half
inch or less is all that is expected.

Overall, recent snowpack will keep temperatures on the cooler side
of guidance through the extended period. High temperatures will
remain in the 30s through next week. A couple warmer days try to
sneak in next week (Monday and Thursday) where afternoon
temperatures could rise to the low 40s in some locations. Low
temperatures will slowly rise from the low teens on Saturday night
into the upper teens by Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

IFR and lower ceilings are anticipated tonight across the entire
forecast area overnight as a storm system bring widespread snow to
the region. A band of heavy snow is anticipated to develop, which
at this point looks to be in the vicinity of a KIML to KLBF to
KONL or KVTN line. Visibility will fall below 1sm in this band
which should develop first across southwest Nebraska after 06z,
and impact KLBF/KVTN after 12z.


Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to
9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ Saturday for NEZ008>010-025>029-036>038-



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