Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230046

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

At H5 upper trough coming on shore in the Pacific Northwest Large
closed low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Mainly zonal flow
over the lower 48 with the exception of Pacific Northwest.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Models in fair agreement in the near term and with large scale
features in good agreement in the extended range. Have used a
blend in the near term solutions. Upper closed low forms over the
Great Basin tonight with diffluence aloft over western Nebraska
developing through the early morning hours of Thursday. Some areas
of negative epv noted over the northwest with strong mid level
forcing as Colorado low develops and deepens through the morning.
Surface low moves into western Kansas through the afternoon and
deepens to 988mb. Upglide and cold front moving south into western
Nebraska with a mix of precipitation early as the cold air moves
south. Have discounted convection developing over the west with
warm air aloft but not out of the question. 500mb low and 700mb
low positively tilted early and then becoming more baroclinic
through the afternoon and evening slowing things down. Both lows
move over western Nebraska with ample forcing to the north.
Highlights generally north of I80. Snow continuing through the day
on Thursday with strong north winds crating some blowing and
drifting snow. Snow to spread east through the day with winds
increasing Thursday night into Friday. Calving has begun over
western Nebraska and livestock will be major concern.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Heavier snow along the South Dakota border. Highs in the 20s and
lower 30s on Thursday and teens and 20s Friday. Single digits for
over night lows. Deformation zone over the west early Friday
morning spreading east through the day on Friday before ending
over north central ONeill on Friday night. Upper low shears to the
northeast Friday night with temperatures rebounding through the
weekend. Next round of precipitation through the first part of
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 620 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

The main concern this TAF package revolves around the winter
storm impacting the region beginning late tonight. Latest surface
plot and satellite imagery shows high-end VFR clouds (greater
than 7 kft) across the NEB Sandhills to the SD border. Northerly
winds have lessen some late this afternoon with winds peaking
around 6-12 mph presently with a few gusts being reported
approaching 20 mph.

Next 24 hours: Increasing sky cover this evening. Ceilings
lowering to MVFR then to IFR late this evening into the small
hours across the central and northern Sandhills. Deteriorating
ceilings then spread southward across the remainder of the local
forecast area after midnight the rest of tonight. IFR to LIFR
ceilings prevail tomorrow.

Snow developing and spreading into northwest NEB after midnight.
Snow spreads into the central and northern Sandhills to north
central NEB in the morning, elsewhere a wintry mix is expected
with rain more likely farther south. The wintry mix will
see a changeover to all snow tomorrow afternoon. Current thinking
is KLBF terminal will see a switch to all snow mid-late
afternoon. However, still some uncertainty with respect to the
Interstate-80 corridor area, far south, and Custer County with
respect to timing of changeover tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, increasing northeast winds near and after midnight.
Northeast winds strengthen during the day tomorrow with gusts
between 20 and 30 mph anticipated.


Winter Weather Advisory from noon CST /11 AM MST/ Thursday to 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ038-056>059.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 6
PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ004-094.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to 6 PM
CST /5 PM MST/ Friday for NEZ005>010-022>029-035>037.



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