Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 022314
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
514 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Surface high pressure dominating much of the plains from the Dakotas
through Nebraska then to the southeast towards the Tenn Rvr Valley.
Mid level wave across the north resulting in cloud cover. Trough
across the 4 corners region which is lifting towards the plains. The
latest track continues to go across the southern plains then
northeast across the central plains. The majority of the models
continue to keep the precip to the south and east of the CWA. The
00z NAM was a little further north clipping far southeastern zones,
however the 18z run has pushed back south. Thus will continue the
dry forecast. There will be an increase of clouds which models are
in agreement on, although the NAM brings in some lower clouds. If
the system does take the northern track could see some lower clouds,
however current though is just mid clouds on the increase. Tricky
temps as highs were a little warmer than expected although this was
a result of more sunshine. Depending on the rate of increase of the
thicker clouds, lows may be a little too low. Lows follow closer to
the warmer MOS guidance due to the cloud cover. Tomorrow even with
clouds to start the day have temps rebounding to around 40. Some
clearing is possible across the west in the afternoon which will
help boost temps.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Saturday night through Monday...the models has slowed the progress
of the lead disturbance which will usher in arctic air Tuesday but
at the same time deepen it more.

This means high cloudiness would affect Wrn and Ncntl Nebraska
Sunday night and Monday. Sunday should be mostly sunny with highs in
the 40s. The models show a thermal ridge overhead Sunday night and
Monday which would present highs in the 40s Monday despite the high
cloudiness.

A blend of the deterministic models suggests the arctic front could
enter Northern Neb around 18z Monday and be located near Thedford or
North Platte by 00z. Forecast highs in the 40s up north Monday could
be just a morning deal with falling temperatures in the afternoon.

No rain or snow is expected through Monday. The lead disturbance
across Canada is stronger in the morning model runs and appears to
be draining North Central Nebraska of moisture. The strong
westerlies at h850mb near 35kt develop ahead of the arctic front are
carrying moisture away from Nebraska. The NAM shows a slug of dry
air moving across Nebraska associated with a disturbance moving
through the Dakotas just ahead of the arctic front.

Monday night through Friday...the models have abandoned the concept
of upper level energy moving through the Srn Rockies in favor of a
channelized area of vorticity moving through Colorado and Kansas
Tuesday or Wednesday.

The very dry air ahead and behind the arctic front would only favor
light snow at best. The faster GFS shows just snow showers Tuesday
while the slower ECM allows for more moisture pooling and is the
wetter soln. The GFS ensemble and experimental FIM are fast like the
GFS operational but suggest light snow. The GEM was nearly dry and
the WPC 7 day total QPF was dry except for areas south of I-80. A
blend of models suggested 0 to 2 inches of snow Tuesday-Tuesday
night generally favoring areas along and south of I-80. Gridded MOS
was the wettest with 1 to 4 inches of snow mainly along and south of
I-80.

There is little change in the temperature forecast. Snowfall could
have a 10F degree negative effect on temperatures...especially at
night. The forecast of highs in the teens and 20s Tuesday through
Thursday does not include the effect of snow cover. Wind chill
values will likely fall to -5F to -15F regardless. The arctic air
will move off the high plains Friday and highs will rise to the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 513 PM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

VFR conditions for the KLBF and KVTN terminals the next 24 hours.
A broken deck of of mid and high level cloudiness will occur late
this evening into Saturday morning. Otherwise winds will be light
and variable tonight, then southwest near 10kts on Saturday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Roberg


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