Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 191204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
704 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

H5 analysis from earlier this evening had high pressure
anchored over the sern states and extended from eastern Texas into
the Carolinas. Further west, a low amplitude trough of low pressure
was located in the intermountain west with broad west southwest flow
extending east of this feature from the central plains east into New
England. Current wv imagery has a lead shortwave entering the
Nebraska panhandle with the main trough located over western Wyoming
and northern Utah. Light rain showers in association with the lead
wave have moved into northwestern Nebraska overnight. The showers
have had to overcome a decent dry layer tonight, and it has taken
some time for pcpn to reach the surface. As of 3 AM CDT, light rain
was falling from Kimball to Alliance and into Sheridan county. Dew
points in the rain have increased into the lower 40s, and
precipitation has remained all liquid across the panhandle.
Additional, very light rain showers have tracked from central
Nebraska into northeastern Nebraska over the past couple of hours
and the bulk of this activity on radar is not making it to the
ground. Under cloudy skies, temperatures as of 3 AM CDT were in the
mid 40s to lower 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Over the next 24 hours, precipitation chances are the main
forecast concern. For today, mid level frontogenesis will continue
to provide ample lift for light rain across the eastern panhandle
into northeastern portions of the forecast area. As it stands
right now, the best chances for rain are along a line from Garden
county, east northeast to O`Neill. Pops will remain highest in
these areas. Further south and off of the main fronto band,
precipitation chances will decrease quickly. However do not feel
confident enough to totally pull pops in the southern half of the
forecast area for today based on weak lift in the latest NAM12
soln. The latest NAM12, continues to indicate weak isentropic lift
at the 300K sfc this morning with low condensation pressure
deficits into the afternoon hours. This area of weak lift extends
across southwestern into central Nebraska into the afternoon
hours. By evening, a second area of lift in association with the
main trough of low pressure will lift across the Dakotas and
Nebraska. Light rain will develop in the panhandle this evening
and spread east overnight. Forecast soundings for tonight continue
to indicate boundary layer temperatures warm enough for all rain
and will keep rain in the forecast for ptype. Inherited pops for
tonight were generally in the 20 to 40 percent range tonight and
this seems reasonable as lift weakens as you head further east of
the panhandle tonight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s
with some lower to middle 30s in the west as skies will clear
toward daybreak Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Thursday through Friday night...the models have been trending slower
with exit of the disturbance affecting the Central Sandhills today
and tonight. This could cause isolated showers or light rain for a
few hours Thursday morning east of highway 83. The model consensus
shows high pressure building through the forecast area by late
Thursday evening.

Cool temperatures are in place Thursday for highs in the upper 50s to
near 60. The would often set the stage for a widespread freeze
Friday morning but a broad sfc trof forms Thursday night with south
winds developing overnight. Lows fall into the 30s with upper 20s
across the Western Sandhills.

A solid warming trend develops Friday as the trof lifts northeast
into the Upper midwest and weak high pressure builds into Wrn and
Ncntl Neb. A second trof reforms across the Northern High Plains by
Saturday morning. High Friday rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.
H850mb temperatures rise into the teens supporting this forecast.

Saturday through Tuesday...the models maintain a mostly zonal flow
across the Cntl Plains with tandem upper level lows across the
Pacific Northwest and Northeast U.S.. A series of weak upper level
disturbances will eject east from the upper low across the Pacific
northwest and pass well north of Nebraska.

Temperatures get another bump Saturday with H850mb temperatures
rising to around 20C. Low pressure deepens across the Northern High
Plains and moves east into the Dakotas. This supports highs in the
70s with south winds. The south winds would limit vertical mixing
compared to west or northwest winds. By Sunday morning the low
pressure has moved east and northwest winds develop. The frontal
passage Saturday night should keep the atmosphere mixed with lows in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A very modest cooling develops Sunday with the passage of the cold
front. H850mb temperatures fall back into the teens celsius. Highs
Sunday rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s...similar to Friday.
Another High plains sfc trof forms Monday setting south winds and
slightly warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower
70s. This is basically a recycling of slightly cooler air from the
weak high pressure in place Sunday.

Low pressure deepens but remains nearly stationary across the Cntl
and Nrn High Plains Tuesday. This should begin the process of return
moisture with dew points rising into the mid and upper 40s across
Ncntl Neb. The GFS suggested morning stratus but it is way too early
to invite this into the forecast as the model may be too fast and the
ECM keeps the return moisture east across the Missouri basin. Highs
Tuesday rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Light rain showers will be possible this morning across central
and northern Nebraska and may impact the KVTN terminal through
late this morning. Otherwise, expect cigs of 5000 to 10000 ft agl
today. Cigs will fall to 2500 to 5000 ft agl tonight. There is a
threat for MVFR cigs at the KLBF and KVTN terminals overnight with
cigs possibly falling to 1500 to 2500 ft agl.




SHORT TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...Buttler is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.