Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 140443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1143 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

An upper trough and associated cold front will cross the region
tonight into Saturday. The main story for our area will be the
winds behind the cold front Saturday afternoon and potential fog
ahead of the front late tonight into Saturday morning.

Low level moisture will increase tonight as the low level flow
increases from the southeast ahead of the approaching cold front.
Dew points will rise into the mid 40s across southwest into
central Nebraska by late tonight, and as temperatures fall into
the mid 40s expect at least patchy fog to develop. The moisture is
fairly deep up through 5000 FT with a drier layer above. With the
deeper boundary layer moisture expect low stratus clouds to
develop quickly after midnight, and with some weak lift and the
drier layer aloft, would not be surprised to see a bit of patchy
drizzle. Will not mention the drizzle in the forecast as we
already have a slight to chance pop going for rain showers. Did
add a bit of thunder to the forecast late tonight into Saturday
morning, as the models indicate some instability in the mid
levels. Overall the best jet dynamics and associated
precipitation will remain removed from our forecast area, so will
carry no more than a 40 pop at any one location.

Next, for the winds, feel the GFS may be a bit overdone with the
mixing and therefore too high with the speeds Saturday afternoon.
Compromised between the GFS and NAM and have speeds highest across
southwest Nebraska where sustained northwest winds of 30 mph and
gusts over 40 mph are expected. Elsewhere speeds will be a bit
less but all areas will be windy by late Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Upper trough will be over western Nebraska Saturday afternoon with
showers moving to the east ending over the north central as the
trough moves to the east. Cooler Sunday morning with lows bottoming
out in the mid 20s west to the mid 30s east. Clear skies Sunday with
northwest flow decreasing through the day. Warmer air aloft and full
insolation will allow temperatures to rise into the 60s.

Ridge builds into the northern plains through the week with
dewpoints in the 20s and 30s, dry airmass, the first part of the
week increasing into the 30s and 40s through the end of the week.
Gulf doesn`t start to open till the end of the forecast period as
upper trough moves across the western CONUS. Dry through the week
with temperatures above normal for the season.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Latest satellite imagery shows low-level stratus starting to
develop and spread across southwest NEB. Latest surface plot
shows low-end VFR (between 3-4 kft) at KLBF and KOGA, elsewhere
and across south central NEB ceilings are approaching 3 kft or
are in MVFR flight category. Ceilings are expected to continue to
deteriorate rest of tonight with low-clouds spreading northwest
across western NEB. Otherwise, patchy fog anticipated across
portions of the Sandhills and southwest NEB late tonight-early
tomorrow morning.

Windy tomorrow with a frontal package - primary concerns
revolve around the strong winds behind front. Fronts advances
late morning-early afternoon, and will be accompanied with a wind
shift from the south to north-northwest. Strongest wind gusts
across southwest NEB into the central Sandhills with gusts up to
40 MPH expected. Winds lessen in the evening, albeit breezy
conditions still persisting in north central NEB and far southwest
NEB. Increasing precip chances tomorrow with best chances in
northern NEB, thus mention of precip in the KVTN TAF in the
afternoon. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in the morning
though confidence is low in this occurring.




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